What Now?

254
187
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/hoping-to-be-wrong.html

In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa

paper_6-23pmgold.jpgpaper_6-23pmsilv.jpg

About the Author

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  254 Comments

tmosley Boardwalk · Jun 24, 2011 - 10:58am

The format here is such that

@Boardwalk Millionaire

The format here is such that there are few trolls, and they are easy to ignore when they crop up. Their vile lies don't seem to have much effect here, as they can be discredited without a time limit.

Remember that it takes two to tango. Said vile language and "quick" temper were purely a response to those guys. My temper was "quick" because they change names so often, and in order to prevent anyone from being suckered in by their ruse, you have to jump on them quickly. I don't mind dissenting opinion AT ALL. What I do mind is lies. Which they posted. Over and over. And with the scrolling comments, it was impossible to keep up a conversation for more than a couple of days. Here, the threads are bumped. Conversations go on as long as they have to. This is good. It destroys the cover that those people use to try to discredit good ideas in an attempt to leave poverty in their wake.

Yes, I enjoy the far more positive outlook and format of a bulletin board type forum. Also, the fact that there aren't any loudmouthed eugenicists blithering on with racist rants around here helps.

Thanks for the encouragement.

AstroTurd Colonel-Angus · Jun 24, 2011 - 10:58am

Drop UR Drawers, Colonel-Angus ...

So... post your portfolio so we can all benefit... smiley

AstroTurd TF · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:01am

Love Ya, You Stinky Turd

Well I got your 'real' name, Mr. Ferguson. Look forward to your next vowel movement. Hey, VOWEL movement... I just made that up... hardy, har, har....

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:02am

Gold Dog re: barter gold

Several times I've been able to get ebay gold coins at a nice price that came in a 14k bezel, which basically was free. Turned around and immediately sold the bezel for 30-50 bucks.

Also once bagged a coin that was set in a ring. Great discount on the total gold content there also.

Aronnax · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:03am

@Burt Reynolds

Burt, I think your comments are directed at bullwhip29 , who was posting his response to ScottJ.

Scott is one of the most steadfast supporters and advocates for Turd, you can check out his material at https://thehardrightedge.com/

Dunno about bullwhip29: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/bullwhip29/track

mastercylinder Shill · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:06am

Get a grip lads

Personally I drive a 90s something Ford Transit with several hundred thousand klics on it. I am lucky enough in the calls I've made in my life to date that I don't need to impress anybody cept myself....I tailored my remarks to the level of the respondent who attempted to substitute school yard taunts for a reasoned rebuttal. I'm sincerely sorry that yu missed my drift. But I can surely live with it lad. 

Today things seem to be adrift here for the first time since the opening bell. I've been trying to tell you in so many ways, charts go up n down but a man rides out the waves without complaining about the weather.

I don't live in yur time zone anymore Shill....tell me, what's up, is there something in the air over there today? It's cause of you guys and your families that I even bother to write back home anymore. Depressed I can fathom....school yard taunts an scatological remarks just makes me more convinced that the place has fallen apart faster than a Congressional budget agreement. Your insults don't mean a tinker's damn to me, trust me on that one sir. Why make enemies outta friends....seems like a lotta work for nuthin. 

White trash? 

Boy, you're havin a bad day....I hope things pick up for yu! 

tmosley Capt. Willard · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:07am

@Capt. Willard I agree.

@Capt. Willard

I agree. There is a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over the recent price action. I am hoping that more people will come to my view of things that this price action is actually the BEST THING that could possibly happen for holders of physical. This is leading towards nothing but a COMEX default. Lower prices mean less physical supply is available to THEM too.

Notice, if you will, that there are far fewer, IF ANY, COMEX deliverable bars available on a retail level at this point.

Further, notice that open interest is rising, even as COMEX inventories plunge, and they seem to be having trouble making even a few deliveries in this non-delivery month.

A COMEX implosion is looking more and more likely to hit in July. I already had it pegged at around 50% likelihood. I am tempted to raise that likelihood, given fact that this madness has not abated.

The ONLY paper trade you should have in place is short COMEX silver/SLV long physical silver. I avoid even that, and just keep the long physical silver part, myself. I don't trust brokers either.

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:10am

Burt

I think CD is right. You may have misdirected your anger.

Hickerydooo · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:12am

Europe is panicing

So now the EU is asking the banks and even privately held funds )pension etc...to give money on a voluntary basis.

That could mean:

1) there is no money left at the several governments.

2) ECB and/or IMF do not have the money

3) They are afraid to simply give it all to Greece, since it is tax payers money after all!!! when they do, massive unrest will unfold at rapid pace...

So, how do they dare to ask for privately held money when we all know that Greece will hold up its hands again in a matter of a couple of months...

A big two day strike is coming by next week in greece and meanwhile several banks in italy has been downgraded or warned of the event tot happen if they don't act better soon.

And then the debt ceiling which will be reached by aug. 2nd 2011? will it be stretched up again? guess so....silver price $70 by mid august?....hoping so...

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:13am

miners

Gold and stocks getting hammered again, but the miners (as measured by GDXJ) are still holding above last weeks lows. Just sayin....

AstroTurd Aronnax · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:16am

Sorry to ScottJ...

Dear ScottJ, my apology to you. It seems bullwhip29 was the indigestion I was addressing. Thanks to CD for correcting me.

Wet and Warm Turd Regards,

-Burt

FROM CD'S COMMENT

Burt, I think your comments are directed at bullwhip29 , who was posting his response to ScottJ.

Scott is one of the most steadfast supporters and advocates for Turd, you can check out his material at https://thehardrightedge.com/

Dunno about bullwhip29: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/bullwhip29/track

humahuaca · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:19am

If paper silver is worthless

Then JPM is brilliant for shorting so much of it, right?

They're about to make , what, $35 billion off that big short? Nice. Smart.

Maybe they own physical too, since they do have all these huge warehouses, and we know they own huge amounts of copper.

Better buy JPM stock : )

Colonel-Angus · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:19am

master cylinders website lol

"Although science and magic are posed to us as two entirely separate spheres of activity, close study of the available evidence shows their conflation underpins the structure of our daily lives. Vestigial vision is an innate human faculty to recognize the nature of things as they really are rather than how we are educated to perceive them. Here it is employed to examine what is effectively a trick of conjuration that binds us to a view of ourselves and the world profoundly poisoned. Use of this faculty enables humankind to abjure allegiance to this counterfeit reality paradigm, creating the freedom to finally enjoy self and other" (from master cylinder)

I see now why your posts make no sense. 

ChicksDigIt · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:20am

I wont give up on Sinclair

I wont give up on Sinclair yet...but today's action doesnt seem to bullish. Oh well, love me a good silver sale!

Timer · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:21am

Gold projection

I think next week Gold will go up till around 4th Jul.

https://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/06/24-jun-thoughts.html

Bay of Pigs · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:24am

Well,  anther friday selloff.

Well, anther friday selloff. Gee, never seen this before. LOL. Come on, not a big deal. My take is that gold and silver selling will soon exhaust itself. From there, the uptrend will find it's legs and resume. I really don't why the PM bulls have to defend themselves at all. The 11 year bull run is still intact and looking good.

For those who call Goldbugs "doomers" and "end of the world" types, you can kindly stuff it. That is not why we're here, and your criticism is out of line and counterproductive.

I don't know of anyone around here (or anywhere else) who ever said high gold and silver prices mean the end of world or anything like that. Get real, gold could be revalued to $5K tomorrow and very little would change outside the PM sector. Make a few people very wealthy and that's about it. 

The danger is not high gold prices, it is derivatives. Major risk to the financial system from that issue, not gold. Seems many people have that completely backwards.

Thanks Turd, most of us appreciate this site very much.

Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Relax, and go have some fun this weekend...

mastercylinder Colonel-Angus · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:26am

glad to help out

I held offa referring to yur situation previously as "special development" out of respect for the mentally challenged. I see that I erred on the side of caution.

Here's a tip for you to add to your portfolio.

Don't bite off more than you can chew... it can only lead to choking or embarrassment. I believe that you have suffered enough of both here already.

I'm just trying to help at this point bud. You need all that yu can get.

plata dude · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:26am

several miners up today, a

several miners up today, a good sign SWC looking like someone is accumulating despite Pd off.

tmosley humahuaca · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:26am

Not really.  They are the

@humahuaca

Not really. They are the counterparty. JPM shorting silver is like a nation buying CDS on itself.

JPM won't go bankrupt in dollar terms, but they will be shown to have no silver. That is enough for us.

Colonel-Angus · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:28am

One position

Long Oct.30 SLV puts Till 33.80 silver price range. Then long Oct 30 SLV calls .Ok

murphy · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:29am

perspective

I have been an avid reader and sometimes poster since February. One of the great things about this blog is that so many on it are smart, sincere, funny and sharing people. While I enjoy the news from ZH, I could not take the sophomoric, mean spirited, argumentative commentary. Maybe due to TFM's new site these same posters have found a new place to visit. I know all the familiar old names, they haven't changed. We welcome all the new members who come with like open minds and positive additions. Whether you agree with the poster or not, if it's not constructive please leave the attacks and negativity at the door. Today seems to be the first time I have witnessed this amount of idiocy. Let's just ignore the distraction. Okay, that's been five minutes of my life I'll never get back.

Final note on perspective. I believe gold was $1320 in January. Is $1500 really a disaster on July 1? Just askin.

humahuaca · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:29am

either they are short paper silver or not

So you are saying JPM is not affected by the price of paper silver?

If the price does not matter to them, you are taking a POV quite distinct from 99% of people here.

Zoltan · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:30am

Don't feed the trolls

Just sayin'

Z

agNau · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:40am

Questions:

Any here read of the bank runs going on in Greece? Any here ever hear of contagion? I have posted about volatility. (~ 2 weeks ago first time here.) This last night: https://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-widespread-panic Think. If you are in line at the bank and someone at next teller withdraws ALL their money, what do you think? PIIGS all lined up waiting for bank runs. Confidence? Think the "seasonals" are what is in play right now? OR as I believe,....... This is a volatile swing push down to attempt sentiment change and control of price. "seasonals" will perhaps aid this for a short time, but I think we should snap back soon and be testing highs again in Gold. I think we are a lot closer than you think to that epic moment! As the ZH article states, the Bernank is empty suit running scared with no solutions. ANY here could do a better job. ALL the rest in this administration have no clue. Confidence?

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:58am

Buying Miners

I said weeks ago on the blog that I was disgruntled with the miners and that I planned to gradually exit the space. But the cave-in in prices took that off the table for me. I don't hate them so much that I wanted to just give them away for cheap.

Now, the action in the miners is looking more and more attractive to me as a buying opportunity. I just added Aurizon, Great Basin, and Richmont. 

Lord help me, these miners are driving me insane! Really need some therapy or something, but that's what miners will do to you.

Be safe out there.

plata dude · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:07pm

miners are not unconcho

RBY TCK SWC AUY SSL.V all green, et al going green

Monedas Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:10pm

Miners vs Stockholders

The miners seem a natural play ! The problem is that shareholder's rights to the profits are a joke ! The liabilities are immediate and devastating......the right to share in the profits are slow and devastating ! Monedas 2011 Wish it weren't so !

Goofy · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:15pm

Some of you guys are to

Some of you guys are to emotional, relax the paper game is just a derivative casino, you know this to well still you play and get pissed when you lose:) Please smile in the face of this crumbling derivative shit house, and go by some physical and get to know your neighbors. If you play, do it with pleasure. Remember addictive gamblers lose track of both their senses, money and their time, that is why they whine ....))

Dont Worry Be Happy
Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:16pm

re: Goofy

Don't worry, my physical still outweighs my miners 3 to 1, so I think I'm still grounded that way. cool

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