Fighting Back

If you're depressed and despondent over the price action in the metals, don't be. It's all simple, option expiry nonsense and it will get better next week. Besides, I have some happy news for you today...The Good Guys are fighting back.

You'll recall that late last year, the U.S. District Court in New York dismissed the civil suit for silver manipulation against JPMorgan. At the time, The Court granted the plaintiffs 30 days to re-file. Today, I'm happy to share with you that they, in fact, have re-filed and are quite optimistic about their case going forward.

First up, here's a link to the summary written by Turdville Attorney General CALawyer in the days immediately following the dismissal. You might want to review this again before going forward.

Upon receipt of the filing yesterday, I once again sent it off to CALawyer for his opinion. Time was short so he was only able to reply with the email below. We are all in his debt for taking the time to review it. Again, CALawyer, THANK YOU!

Hey Turd:
This is my quick take.  I read the Motion for Leave to Replead.  It is very standard, and should be granted.  Routine pleading, nice summary.  The defense will oppose, claiming that even with all the new proposed facts, the new facts do not make a difference and thus, the Motion for Leave to Replead should be denied.  It is a very low hurdle for Plaintiffs, and the Motion is almost certain to be granted, based on the new facts from the Proposed Second Amended Complaint.  My read of the proposed new complaint is that this should be enough to make out a case.  That may or may not be enough to get discovery launched, but the absolute last thing the defense wants is an army of Plaintiff attorney's scouring through the JPM documents.  No TBTF bank wants that, ever.  I hope, but I do not know, that the court will grant discovery on this based on the showing of alleged facts from the new complaint, though.

For example, look at this new allegation, at paragraph 137.  I like this quote a lot:
"e. As a sophisticated and large market participant as well as a
market maker on the London market and clearing member of COMEX, JP Morgan
well knew each of the foregoing facts as they occurred. By selling in the small
COMEX market, JP Morgan knew that it received lesser sale prices because it had a greater depressant effects on prices. Thus, JP Morgan repeatedly and
uneconomically incurred additional transaction costs in order to sell at the lower
prices it caused on COMEX. JP Morgan thereby intentionally acted contrary to the
conduct of a hedger by repeatedly incurring greater transaction costs. It did so in
order to depress prices."

This allegation is tight, and makes out a compelling case, because it finally shows that JPM's behavior is illogical and hence, that leaves only the conclusion that it was manipulating prices.  The distinction between the Comex and LBMA as far as price, volume, etc., is critical.  Rhetorically, then, the obvious question that is asked, "Why would JPM hold a large short position on Comex to hedge when hedging on Comex cost more than on LBMA?, is then answered: "Because it wanted to manipulate prices despite the costs to do so because it made money from depressing prices, which ultimately means it was not hedging at all, since JPM would not hold a hedge that lost it money when it could hold the same hedge on LBMA without losing money."

I like the substantial allegations at paragraph 137 a lot.  This could get real interesting if discovery is allowed. 
That decision is the next real test, not the next motion to dismiss.  
Thanks for letting me weigh in.
Anytime you need something my friend, just ask.


CALawyer, Esq. Attorney General de Turdville

OK, with that, the documents to review are below. The have been filed with the court and are fully public. At this point, we'll need to let the process run its course so no need to get carried away today. However, I felt that it was important for you to know that The Good Guys are continuing the fight on your behalf. Wish them well and Godspeed.



Second Amended Complaint in JPM Silver Manipulation Civil Case by Turd Ferguson


Karankawa's picture

Thanks Xeno

I really don't know what to make of it all.

On one hand I see total control of the paper markets forever ...

On the other, this might be the paper elephant in the living room parading too close to a candle.

I do know that it has been a significant part of structuring our current society, and why things are so screwed up.


Havenstein's picture

The truth will set you free,

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

Hammer's picture

Reposting episode 2 for easy

Reposting episode 2 for easy viewing

Karankawa's picture

Good Stuff Hammer ...

I'm downloading both.

Thanks, great teaching material.

old tradesman's picture

thank you turd

Even when people are drinking!(as admitted by me and others)(and turd),.   i can just sit back and read and see where it goes! (with great talking points on both sides)  I dont have much more to say anymore!  (for if I just wait every thing is vetted out)  This thread is the best!!!!  Communication!  (at its best)

my respect  to you all!!!!

Politics, religion, sexual orientation, This is the best!!!!   (OH IM SORRY GOLD/SILVER)no sarc involved!!  There was so many great posts this weekend!!!!  And so much research I cant keep up with!!!

and to dph you are working overtime!!!!yes

Dyna mo hum's picture

Old Tradsman?

Do you think it ok for me to talk here about my foot fetish problem? She wears that damn silver nail polish and its driving me insane.

old tradesman's picture

@Dyna mo hum

would you like me to start a forum?

Byzantium's picture

@ Brokerk22

"Man you really know shit is bearish when two dudes on metal site are talking back and forth that it is almost a foregone conlclusion that silver is going to fall to 20$ or lower when it is at 31$."

Not so. I do not think it is a foregone conclusion, nor even the likely outcome at all, but merely a realistic possibility; there is a difference.

I am saying that if it happens at all,

  1. it will offer a stupendous trading possibility via the GSR
  2. it will likely be the necessary prelude to the moonshot.
  3. it will be easier to survive it emotionally and financially, if we see it coming.

That last point is vital. I do remember past occasions when we have had major waterfalls (like Sep 2011 in silver, when we went from $42 to $29, obliterating the climb back to $50), that the gold-bug community (myself included) were in a state of total confusion, and shock. We must not be so naive again.

I close with my usual mantra; be on the train for the moon-shot, but prepare yourself too (both financially and emotionally) for short term catastrophic price outcomes (regardless their perceived probability). Hedge, hedge, hedge!

jolidacrown's picture

Thanks To All

Who participated in ‘Armstrong Discussion’.

Over time I’ve become increasingly skeptical with all the experts analysis - I would also add the pumpers who sell silver/gold who have a found the perfect niche - traditional TA doesn’t work anymore - charts and historical data have become utterly useless - the game has always been rigged - however there was a time when TA could be practised with moderate success - the new ‘digital’ game combined with ‘on the fly theft’ is impossible to predict without inside knowledge - which brings me to Sinclair.

IMHO Sinclair with his long history on gold and the markets combined with his experiences as a trader and gold dealer and now gold miner must surely have the most reliable inside contacts around the world - pumpers and would be ‘analysts’ simply don’t have the global reputation/respect/experience nor the Seligman name - having said that I have my own personal timeline for Sinclair’s outlook which is less than 700 days - I believe that’s ample time for some of his calls to be at least semi accurate - the proof and accuracy of his statements will be judged by the price of gold at that time - if he disappoints I’m afraid the crystal ball is all that’s left.

Mickey's picture

Hee is the strange thing of where we are at

The economy appears to be flat or perhaps contracting according to the NY, , Philly Richmond and KC Feds. 

Everybody counting on a strong economy to get us out of this quagmire. 

Tax revenueincreases only coming from rate increases. I think there was a ZH posting of how corp income 4th qtr is up 1 percent.

Taxes might be around 2.5 trillion in 2013.

if no changes to spending, spending by govt will be close to 4trillion.

That a cash flow loss obviously.

if they cut spending, the economy slows a bit, it might slow just due to resumption of FICA taxes.

shadow stats calculated we have a 6.9 trillion GAAP loss.

the govt in its financials admits to 88 trillion of unfounded entitlements. Kotlikoff thinks its 200 trillion. 

Benefit of doubt. 

How do we fund 88 trillion with existing cash flow deficit? How do we get back to break even just cash flow if we do not really improve jobs situation, which means we need a robust economy?

i do not have a clue and the longer we go the more the GAAP accounting losses turns into cash flow as boomers retire.

then we have a situation where the fixed income market has been pumped up by Fed and is in a bubble. We have a stock market with a PE of around 15 in a 1percent growth environment. In my neighborhood, that's overvalued too. 

We have a situation where treasury debt situation is worsening. Cannot pa off current debt without issuing new debt, and the entitlement trusts are invested in illiquid treasuries.

I see now way out. Where are investment alternatives when the stock market and bond markets sell off. Treasuries? Or precious metals? Or just holding fiat?

the only choice not absurd IMO is precious metals and that's the default choice out of fear. 

Remember we here are a small minority. We can barely move the needle alone.

the big money has to flow to PM. Pensions, hedge funds which represent the real 1percent of wealth.

and most of the hedge funds are not into PM.  Yet.

most of pension plans do not want PM since it offers no cash return and they have these 7 percent assumptions they have made and are not meeting.

where this stops no one really knows, but I see a systemic shock coming to the us and probably global system.

we just cannot afford everything promised and there is nothing in place to fix the real problems.

so for those forecasting 1200 gold. Can it happen? Sure. But if it happens if the underlying problems are not corrected, gold 1200 might very well still be the best asset to own.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Mariposa: "You have me

@Mariposa: "You have me wondering if I too, am an anarchist"

Everyone is born an anarchist, but our parents, our schools and our government usually beat it out of us by the time we reach adulthood.

Here is my Sunday morning public service announcement.

Rothbard and Hoppe on the Absurdity of the State.

Murray Rothbard
Let us assume... that a sizeable number of people suddenly arrive on Earth, and that they must now consider what sort of social arrangements to live under. One person or group of persons argues as follows (i.e., the typical argument for the State): “If each of us is allowed to remain free in all aspects, and particularly if each of us is allowed to retain weapons and the right of self-defense, then we will all war against each other, and society will be wrecked. Therefore, let us turn over all of our guns and all of our ultimate decision-making power and power to define and enforce our rights to the Jones family over there. The Jones family will guard us from our predatory instincts, keep social peace, and enforce justice.” Is it conceivable that anyone (except perhaps the Jones family itself) would spend one moment considering this clearly absurd scheme? The cry of “who would guard us from the Jones family, especially when we are deprived of our weapons?” would suffice to shout down such a scheme. And yet, given the acquisition of legitimacy from the fact of longevity given the longtime rule of the “Jones family” this is precisely the type of argument to which [supporters of the State] now blindly adhere.1
Hans-Hermann Hoppe
Assume a group of people, aware of the possibility of conflicts between them. Someone then proposes, as a solution to this human problem, that he (or someone) be made the ultimate arbiter in any such case of conflict, including those conflicts in which he is involved. Is this is a deal that you would accept? I am confident that he will be considered either a joker or mentally unstable. Yet this is precisely what all statists propose.2
1. Rothbard, Murray N. "The Inner Contradictions of the State." The Ethics of Liberty. New York: New York Universtiy, 1998. 175. Print.
2. Hoppe, Hans-Hermann. "The Role of Intellectuals and Anti-Intellectual Intellectuals." The Great Fiction. Baltimore: Laissez Faire Books, 2012. 35. Print.
Brought to you by the dream of a free society.
Mickey's picture

Let me add (using PC vs ipad)

we are for the US in uncharted waters.

I keep scratching my head wondering how we meet obligations with debt to gdp already above 100%, and with low rates.

any one of a bunch of events will send us totally out of control.

my guess is the reason President Obama wants to keep the spending going is not so much just to take care of people on welfare but to just keep the economy going, no collapse on his watch-just kick the can.

Even if we had a robust economy we probably would be absolutely thrilled  just to come close to balancing annual cash flow. But as I said with boomers retiring in big and increasing numbers for the foreseeable future the cash flow demands increase. And the boomers do not have to retire to cause that--they can just take social security and medicare and still work, thus depriving the young kids of jobs (not well put as everybody scared and looking to survive).

The dynamics of  this is fascinating. What one would think is an easy fix in one area pushes the balloon in a different direction. Ie--tell boomers -those 45 to 64, that new retirement age is older--and they keep working, thus not giving the young kids the job ops. Moreso, the boomer are spending less because they just do as they age. And the youngsters, with no choice jobs available, do not have much in way of discretionary spending.

Here is another angle--the economy grew in the 70's as we started with two income families--where is the growth in the future if we already have 2 income families?

I will end with a comment about inflation- CPI says pretty small and the Fed wants to create inflation to help wipe out debts. We know food and medical care and education are huge inflation spots that are not fully included in inflation. They want inflation in housing.

But they have created inflation in taxes which is not in any cpi that I know of. And that steals from a growing economy.

so we are between the proverbial rock and hard spot.

Hard to guess what happens near term. But I fear like others that we could see a huge correction in market-unless of course dollars printed continue to chase paper financial assets.

what a mess.

Mickey's picture

Don Coxe

I would  suggest you read Don Coxe Final Basic Points December 2012 (he is no longer associated with BMO). Available at    I cannot link-you have to go there.

he does a splendid job of bringing the pieces together and really likes gold.

Excalibur's picture

Fighting back. This guy is an honory Turdite.

This speech will wake you up on a Sunday. To hear this in ANY parliament is a revelation. This MP would be a hero anywhere, but in Belgium he has even surpassed Tin Tin IMO.

Dr Jerome's picture


I am trying to pin down a good indicator of inflation. Seems that the price every commodity is either manipulated by TPTB, or sensitive to supply and demand, which depends on economic contraction or expansion. We certainly cannot measure the value of what we must buy for our family in dollars. Most items are now manufactured in countries where labor is unethically cheap. I am broker now than in 1984 when I made 35K per year--only half my current salary.  I know prices for necessities are rising. I see it in the price and I see it in package sizes, but how do you measure it? Surely someone else is already publishing such data. 

Mr. Smith's picture

Alf Field's Wave Count and A Number For Next Week

James Sinclair will cite the Wave Counts that Alf Field does as a means of interpreting the pattern of the movement of gold, anticipating rises and falls, and projecting final tops including yesterday's comments of above $3,500. At the start of this year, Mr. Field offered this set of numbers to call for the conclusion of the correction that began in September, 2012. Price going below 1626 invalidates that wave count and, of course, means much lower prices for gold. This is the number to watch next week.

1798.10 – 1672.50 = 125.60 Wave A Down

1755.00 – 1626.00 = 129.00 Wave C Down

ag1969's picture

Happy Sunday Everyone

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

Dr. J, to measure inflation...

Try the Billion Prices Project.

mahen's picture

Silver seems Ready to Take-Off – Are you ready for the Flight?

Silver seems Ready to Take-Off – Are you ready for the Flight?

Category: Gold Trading | Silver Trading
January 24, 2013 | No Comments » |


Silver seems Ready to Take-Off – Are you ready for the Flight?

Silver seems Ready to Take-Off – Are you ready for the Flight?

No sooner had the House got its 212 votes to pass the Debt Ceiling extension, Silver and US Stock Markets began to rise whereas Gold declined. The Commitment of Traders report shows Commercials have yet again reduced their Net Short position in Silver, which is now close to the low of 2003 at the beginning of the Bull Market. Commercials are generally seen as the “smart money”, so if they reduce their Net Short Position, they expect prices to rise (or at least not drop substantially during periodic corrections). The reason why Commercials are the “Smart Money”, is that – unlike the millions of small investors who burn their hands by buying high and selling low – they tend to “Buy” low (reduce short positions as price declines) and “Sell” high (increase short positions as price rises). We are currently in a similar position, as there is resistance at $34. The 50 EMA is now at the same level as this red resistance line, and both the MACD and RSI look set to brake out above their red resistance lines. Combine that with the severely depressed sentiment in Silver and the low Net Short Positions of Commercials, and we have the ideal cocktail for a nice rally in Silver Prices. I had alerted in an article that I wrote on 28 Dec 2012, that Silver has till now always followed Gold – A trend which will soon break apart & both would go their own ways. Read more: Silver and Gold Prices – You go your way & I’ll go mineThe time to prove the same & witness this amazing occurrence seems pretty close by.

Debt Ceiling Bill passed is Silver & Stock Market Bullish:

House Democrat Steny Hoyer of Maryland called the measure a “political gimmick” that puts off the debt-limit issue for three months so House Republicans “can continue to roil the Congress, roil our people and roil our country” with fiscal uncertainty. The Treasury Department has said it expects to run out of emergency measures to prevent a breach of the current debt limit between mid-February and early March. House Speaker John Boehner warned immediately after Wednesday’s vote that Republicans would take the next opportunity – automatic budget cuts set for March – to demand “reforms” from Obama. The automatic cuts, which were temporarily set aside earlier this month in a fiscal deal between the White House and Congress, are “going to go into effect” unless Obama makes concessions, Boehner said. The Debt Ceiling extension has provided the markets with a huge relief & the illusion of the Improvising US Economy may be carried on for some more time. Though this relief is temporary in nature, there can be some more upside bouts in the Stock Markets. A survey showed China’s manufacturing growing at the fastest pace in two years, which is bullish for Base Metals. While Global Markets are on a Risk-On mode, money flows into riskier assets like equities, raw commodities, Base Metals, etc & away from Gold. This also carries the perpetual risk of Higher Inflation. There is the birth then for a need of a safe haven hedge against Inflation.Gold has always been the sole safe haven option during times of crisis, with Silver as a follower, as seen since the crisis of 2008. But now the scenario is way different – or the Economy is rather projected to appear on a path to healthy recovery. There is a major diversion of funds into risk assets leaving little for safe haven hedging. Also with rising taxes, there is even lesser left for safe investment. All this points towards Silver Demand, a cheaper & yet highly effective alternate Investment option to Gold, having all the positives of Gold along with value addition of a huge Industrial Demand. The time for Silver Investment has surely come. Silver may decline on the recent developments for the short term close to $29, but sharp recoveries are surely expected soon enough. Are you ready for the heady flight?

Market Analysts Expect Gold to Rally:

Gold Futures have dropped in Asian trade Thursday after the Debt Limit bill was passed by the US House yesterday & as a positive outlook on global economic scenario dented its safe haven appeal. The Comex Gold February contract eased Wednesday after hitting its strongest settlement since mid-December on Tuesday at $1,693.20. A key upcoming event for the market will be options expiration for the February Gold Futures contract on Monday. However Morgan Stanley analysts are of the opinion that Gold will rally this year and climb further into 2014 as US Federal Reserve policy makers will probably maintain asset purchases for two more years to buttress the recovery. Gold Prices, which advanced for a 12th year in 2012, may average $1,830 an ounce in the final quarter from $1,715 in the first, $1,745 in the second and $1,800 in the third, analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane said in a report today. Prices will supported by investment and central-bank buying, they wrote. Gold had the biggest quarterly drop since 2008 in the final three months of last year as data showed the recovery in the largest economy gaining traction, boosting concern the Fed may withdraw stimulus. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting released on Jan. 3 said asset purchases will probably end this year. Each month the Fed has committed to buying $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage debt. “We are skeptical that dissenters within the FOMC on current monetary policy will succeed in overturning the current policy settings before the end of 2014,” the analysts wrote, citing elevated unemployment and so-called tail risks to growth. There would be an “ongoing commitment to QE3,” they said, using initials for the third round ofQuantitative Easing. Gold and Silver Markets now await the US Federal Reserve – FOMC policy meeting next week, which could shed light on the future of its ultra-loose monetary policy, which has been the main driver of higher Gold Prices in the past two years. Physical Gold and SilverDemand remains reportedly very strong ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations next month and even India’s Gold Demand is understood to be solid despite the hikes on import duty.

The Great Silver Rush:

Strong Silver Investment demand will not only support but also help Silver achieve lofty levels this year irrespective of any developments in paper Silver. Most major Silver mining companies are reported increase in production but excessive demand forced them to work hard for more output. Pan American Silver recently reported that it produced a record 6.9 million ounces of Silver in the fourth quarter of 2012, a year-over-year increase of 30%. The company has seven operating mines in Mexico,Peru,Argentina and Bolivia, including the recently acquired Dolores Gold / Silver mine in Chihuahua, Mexico. Silver Wheaton, the largest silver streaming company in the world reported record attributable silver equivalent production of 7.7 million ounces in the fourth quarter, a year-over-year increase of 26%. Its annual attributable production is anticipated to increase significantly to approximately 48 million Silver equivalent ounces, including 100,000 ounces of gold by 2016. There is a severe global shortage in Silver even on increased output. Silver ETP investment is at a record of 19,114 tons globally, which is approximately nine months of mine output.

ag1969's picture

Central Banks Losing Gold and Silver Price Suppression

I apologize if posted already.  Have not gone through all of the comments yet.

Mr. Smith's picture

Inflation Indicator

The work that Williams' does at "Shadow Stats" is convenient. You can read his graph on the free cover site and interpolate. He shows current rate as the high 5 percent using the methods of the Labor Department in 1990.

brokerk22's picture


Great point Byzantium.  However, when silver fell from 50$ all the way down to 25 or so, it had gone from 25 to 50 in 3 months.  That is a huge difference from today where silver has been in a 20 month consolidation and repeatedly raided.  I just cant see them breaking this down below 26$ (worst case scenario) and even highly unlikely for that.  But I do agree we have to be prepared for every possible outcome.  Trading on margin is surely a killer which I should know better being a broker.  IMO technical trading almost anything and especially gold and silver is useless and hazardous to your accounts.  I cant believe there are people still attempting it. Surviving this raid to get to the other side (when they are long) is the primary goal.   I pray to God that this is soon.   I am having difficulty sleeping personally, I have a lot of people counting on me for advice.  This is most certainly painful for me to endure.  This site is a great place for me to react with others.

Urban Roman's picture

Armstrong and prediction

OK, now that I have had some sleep, and thought about it a bit more, I have concluded that what Armstrong has is a macroeconomic orrery. Macroeconomists, like Armstrong or Stoneleigh, and students of collapse like JMG or Dmitry Orlov, are "shooting from the hip" if or when they make specific predictions about the prices of metals. 

Guys like Turd or Andrew or Santa, who have watched the antics of the financial parasites for decades, and who closely follow the workings of the metals markets, are almost certainly in a better position to trade the stuff. 

My conclusion: we are entering a depression, and will probably have several more years of deflation, which will be answered with a desperate Ctrl-P. But because metals prices are already depressed (despite that exponential ramp from a century of inflation), they aren't likely to plunge with the rest of the economy. 

¤'s picture

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

Boy Ranger leader-turned U.S. Senator Jefferson Smith denounces corporate political corruption and stands up for democracy and youth empowerment in this 1939 classic.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939), directed by Frank Capra, starring James Stewart and Jean Arthur

Jason Foster's picture

Are you Effing kidding me?

From Google, "Jobless claims hit five-year low as Republicans, Obama agree to raise debt ceiling" although they did acknowledge that 3 states did not submit data.  I guess all the construction workers have jobs now?  These people will say or do anything to keep the beast alive

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

Real world arbitrage opportunity

BoTach Tactical is selling KCI (aftermarket) 15-round Glock 19 magazines for $12.95 each with free shipping (no minimum order).

Click to enlarge

I'm going to sell a bunch on Armslist ( for $25 each.  You should see how much people are willing to pay for these!  Check out the mania on Gunbroker:

I'm going to sell enough to cover my expenses so I can stock up on some additional Glock 19 mags for free! 

¤'s picture

Charts: GLD, Gold, Silver, Oil

GLD 30 Day


GLD 6 Month


GOLD  3 Year


Silver 3 Year


Oil/WTIC  3 Year


Oil/ WTIC 30 Year


Patrancus's picture

Fighting Back

Fighting Back means one would had to take up a mission to "spoil their party" of the beast we call D C

If you have not taken the time to travel to Washington DC and spend a few days traveling around observing the cavalcades of economic activity and prosperity, I would encourage you to do so and possibly move yourself into the proper mindset for setting about the task of spoiling their party. These buggers do not manufacture anything other than bs and only exist because the chumps who live elsewhere across the republic continue to send in their hard or hardly earned monies to Washington DC keeping their games and the parties going, and lately going so well that your visit might very well be one of the most significant revelations of your lifetime. 

After my visit last year, I am making it my mission for my remaining days to find every possible legal means to reduce my tribute to the beast of DC.

murphy's picture


Since most read ZH I'm sure you may have seen the first video. But when I saw Cornell West in the audience I caught the second one. Say what you will about the man but he can spew some words. No notes or teleprompter  as far as I saw.

¤'s picture

Those Shoes

For Dyna mo hum wink


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