WARNING

611
154
Wed, Sep 7, 2011 - 9:13am

 I think it's quite clear now why gold responded yesterday in the opposite direction from what you would have expected. With central banks actively managing a debasement of their currencies, we are now seeing them also attempt to actively manage a debasement of gold, too. Be careful. Be very careful.

We all wondered yesterday why gold would plunge on the SNB news. Now we know. In an attempt to mitigate the "negative" effect on francs priced in gold, the SNB sold a massive amount of gold futures at the same time. How do we know this, because it appears that the same thing earlier today. Check out this chart that posted in the overnight comments of the previous thread (thanks, pmahler!):

large_screen_2011-09-06_at_9.47.07_pm.jpg

Yes, that's 7,000 contracts (700,000 ounces) (nearly 22 metric tons!) dumped on the Globex while London and NY are closed! This should also raise your deja vu spidey senses regarding silver in May. The $ drop in silver was greater because the silver market is considerably smaller. However, it's the same strategy. Maximize the downward impact and collateral damage by executing the attack at a time of minimal liquidity.

This all wreaks of malicious manipulation. If you are trading, be prepared for anything. If looking to buy, throw all of the charts I gave you yesterday out the window and wait for at least 1725 in gold, maybe even a gap-filling 1650. Since silver is not the object of attack, it shouldn't drop as far but it looks almost certain to drop to the bottom of the channel we've been following, near $40.

Also, it appears likely that we are entering another 4-6 day downshaft in the Continuous Commodity Index. You'll recall we found this pattern last month and it was one of the factors that allowed me to correctly forecast $44 silver by Labor Day. I asked my pal Trader Dan to send me an updated chart and he obliged. Thanks, Dan!

large_cci_index_as_of_9-6-2011-1.jpg

Count the days between moves. Peak early April. Nine day decline. Peak early May. 9 days down. Peak mid-June. 12 days down. Peak early August. 4 days down. Peak early September. Next decline takes it back down to 620-630?

By the way, I just looked at Dan's site. Looks like he agrees with me. I suggest you read this now:

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-on-gold-at.html

So, look, you've been warned. If you're not trading, just sit back and enjoy the free fireworks show. Maybe use the next central bank raid to accumulate some more physical. If you are trading, my advice is to avoid being a hero. Do not try to get cute and "catch the knife". The next few days are going to be extremely volatile. Save your powder for after the dust has settled, when we can all see a bit more clearly.

TF

12:00 noon EDT UPDATE:

Turdite "Zagio" just posted this chart in the comments of this post. It perfectly explains why anyone trying to "catch the knife" should hold off for a while longer.

large_raakhaathngswis.jpg

If you believe as I do that this current beatdown in gold is being engineered by the SNB, then why would you think they would rest before pushing gold all the way back down to the level it was before the devaluation announcement? That level is around 1500 francs/ounce. Additionally, this is a level that would correspond to my potential target buying point of somewhere between 1700 and 1750. It may take till tomorrow or Friday but confidence is high that gold is headed there.

Patience is warranted here. Also, it's now noon EDT which is the hour when follow-through selling usually materializes on the Comex. I for one, am not buying the dip....yet. TF

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  611 Comments

Eric Original · Sep 7, 2011 - 11:46pm

dress?  what dress?

dress? what dress?

margaritatime · Sep 7, 2011 - 11:48pm

haha

I am almost on the floor... you guys are soo wrong. lol

DeltaCharlie · Sep 7, 2011 - 11:48pm

Essential Read (ZH): Hilsenrath Speaks: "Fed Prepares To Act"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/hilsenrath-speaks-fed-prepares-act 

Probably the most important article you'll read today.

So here's the question: If Operation Twist is the most likely outcome (according to ZeroHedge), how will this affect the prices of gold and silver?

Any thoughts? Discussing this as a community should benefit all at this site!! Sept 21 & 22 is when the Fed will publically announced its intention. 

nathan1234 Turdle GG · Sep 7, 2011 - 11:56pm

Re -It was at about this time

I think there are so many shorts that hopefully we get a sharp increase and a scramble to cover.

In effect, i hope the reverse of what happened yesterday.

Turdle GG · Sep 7, 2011 - 11:57pm

If there's a big gold buyer out there

...then I wonder if they are sitting on the bid right now, waiting to pick up 7,000 contracts in a minute without moving the market up at all...

NW VIEW exiledbear · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:01am

KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE OLD AND NEEDY

@ exiledbear: Yes the shops, stores and cafe's are closing down everywhere. I took my wife to the Tacoma Mall a few days ago and I was sitting in the main mall area. I noticed an old woman come in and she began lifting the seat cushions out of every chair in the mall, hoping to find some coins or fiat. I also was at a local cafe listening to two old grandma's trying to figure out if they had enough money to buy a meal using a coupon. Have we been in a line at the grocery stores lately and noticed that people do not have enough cash to buy basic foods??? The stores are closing down and the old baby boomers are searching for coins. These sight trouble me greatly. jmo

atarangi · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:04am

hilarious video -- well done eric

Is it just my imagination or is that video a little bit naughty .

Eric Original · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:09am

re: Hilsenrath

I've always heard about how an upward sloping yield curve provides the profit margin for the banking industry. Borrow short, lend long, and there you are. So Operation Twist is supposed to flatten out the yield curve. And kill the profit margin for already zombie banks. I don't see how this is supposed to get anybody anywhere.

TheGoodDoctor · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:16am

Embry on

Embry on KWN

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/8_Em...

When asked about silver specifically Embry replied, “The noted bullion bank, and we all know who it is, has an enormous short position (in silver), which can never be covered with real metal. They are moving heaven and earth to try to prevent the inevitable price rise. They will be overcome and the price will go berserk as a result of that. So once it clears $50, which I suspect it will do in the not too distant future, it’s onward and upward.” 

When asked about the mining shares Embry stated, “It’s like a coiled spring, they are getting ready to explode and I couldn’t be more bullish on gold stocks and silver stocks.”

exiledbear · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:20am

@deltacharlie

When you strip all the bullshit away, does it involve "printing money" or not? If it does, it's good for gold, albeit not right this minute.

I don't think that either QE or QE2 have really impacted anything yet. They're like bullets - QE is chambered and QE2 is still in the magazine. Yes, even with August and all. I think this August was more or less anticipation and frontrunning for what's to come, but the actual devastation that the QE's will unleash has yet to happen.

At some point, someone will pull the trigger, and then shortly therafter the grocery store shelves will get stripped clean.

dziprick · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:22am

gop debate

Results with 249 short comments

Total of 30,575 votes - click on the "Display Comments" bar below to sort comments
Ron Paul 40.6% (12,410 votes)
Mitt Romney 22.8% (6,974 votes)
Rick Perry 17.3% (5,302 votes)
Jon Huntsman 8.5% (2,613 votes)
Newt Gingrich 3.7% (1,143 votes)
Michele Bachmann 2.9% (877 votes)
Herman Cain 2.8% (842 votes)
Rick Santorum 1.4% (414 votes)
Kumanari · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:31am

OTAY

I stay Chocolate City (D.C.). Heads spinning been up over 30 hrs, travelling with wife and kids several time zones just learned to hotspot. i'm out of it.

So I' not ignoring anyone I have not and never will use the IU, I have an OEM unit installed by my Creator. some of my post were written as many as 6 times cause I'm a full figured guy in the cheap seats two finger typer tech idiot. I have a bit to say but my head is swimming, just zipped thru 10 pages of comments reading about 4 in their entirety, tirety that's what i am sorry i'm on 5% charge i'm toastm I'm supposed to be on vacation but it's the most epic week. I'm down with eric though what he/we believe is the manip has been built in since Rothcild -Waterloo Arstrong explains this welcome back ewc sorry gotta not makin sense. Bye

Coryst · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:42am

CNN's take on GOLD

What an idiot! Can not wait to see him standing in a food line sharing the shortage in the next few years trying to get rid of his $20 FRN ;-) Enjoy if you can https://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/business/2011/09/07/eitm-...

jlee2027 · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:42am

Ron Paul wins Debate, media ignores him

Who do you think won the Republican debate at the Reagan library? Who do you think won the GOP debate? Total of 33,866 votes - click on the "Display Comments" bar below to sort comments

Ron Paul 40.9% (13,840 votes)
Mitt Romney 22.7% (7,697 votes)
Rick Perry 17.2% (5,811 votes)
Jon Huntsman 8.5% (2,881 votes)
Newt Gingrich 3.7% (1,264 votes)
Michele Bachmann 2.8% (965 votes)
Herman Cain 2.8% (953 votes)
Rick Santorum 1.3% (455 votes)
jlee2027 Coryst · Sep 8, 2011 - 12:47am

re: CNN's take on Gold

Is there somewhere to send comments? He doesn't seem to understand that the only real money is Gold and Silver, not paper.

jlee2027 · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:11am

Ron Paul Questions

All the questions to him are basically the same thing:

How can people survive w/o the Government "helping" them? Idiots.

blownaway · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:23am

RE:The fund did well for a while and I'm glad you did well.....

I'm done well but who knows what the future will bring.

I think the lack-luster yet POSITIVE performance of TGLDX for 2011 is due to the lousy performance of the mid-large cap gold miners and less to do with the fund manager or fund. Most of the bigger miners have been underperforming compared to the metal. I think this perception will change as gold becomes more widely accepted and valued as an investment.

For me, over the past year or so, I’ve sold all my traditional us equities stock mutual funds while the dow was high and re-allocated my retirement account to mutual funds (TGLDX & PRPFX) & stocks/ETF's of my choice.

As far as the funds returns and my own personal returns go I can say that my 416 shares were made over 8 trading days. The most recent was on June 27th-38 shares for $77.87. As an example this one purchase has a return of 17.38% to date. Buys range from a low of 16.3% return to a high of 45.80%.

I dollar cost average and only bought when gold went down significantly on a given day. I think this helps my average cost per share. I assume the fund performance you’re referring to is based on a specific day ill-regardless of price. 

I’m always looking for cheap shares. The one good thing about this mutual fund is with I know if the fund is going up or down depending on the gold price (this was when the gold stocks had a relationship to the metal, today not so much).

Anyway, buy the dips. 

This sums it up pretty well for me....

“While many observers feel that the gold rally has been overdone, is too crowded, resembles a bubble or whatever, the simple fact remains that central banks of the Western democracies appear on course to debase paper currencies. On the one hand, currency debasement is the path of least resistance to grapple with the seemingly intractable fiscal issues of record deficits and unchecked growth in entitlements. On the other hand, persistent economic weakness translates into political pressure for central banks to pursue extremely lax monetary policies. Under these circumstances, it is hard to argue against the notion that some exposure to gold offers protection against monetary damage still to come.”

John Hathaway Tocqueville Gold Fund TGLDX

Rui Turdle GG · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:25am

re: Turdle

Get rid of "feature=player_embedded&" from your URL

Turdle GG · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:27am
Aronnax Eric Original · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:31am

More apologies in advance... but this one's for Eric

Alie & Georgia Present: The Bloody Bacon & Cheese

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCjLM-L19-c

@TurdleGG: click the 'insert URL' icon (globe with chain links) in the header of the edit post window, paste in your YouTube link

Jive Dadson · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:34am

Tolja

I knew it had to be SNB. Tolja so. Did not know what to do about it though. Maybe I will buy puts again. I have been lucky with that.

Jive Dadson · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:34am

Tolja

I knew it had to be SNB. Tolja so. Did not know what to do about it though. Maybe I will buy puts again. I have been lucky with that.

Prize Fighter · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:43am

Turdle, in the future, just

Turdle, in the future, just click the "Share" button below a YouTube video (on their site) and it will give you the shortened embedded url to copy. wink

Prize Fighter · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:46am

Real Sim, nooooooo....don't

Real Sim, nooooooo....don't click the add url button for YouTube videos. That makes the clicking the video take us off Turd's site and goes to YouTube. Just paste the YouTube url into the comment box and the video will stay on Turds site. Their videos are already embedded, no need to "add url."

jlee2027 · Sep 8, 2011 - 1:58am

Classic SNL skit

If you've never seen this, it's well worth the 3 minutes. Theres a 5 second commercial, but it's HD video. The "debate" is over whether a woman who lives with you is entitled to alimony. Watch Dan Aykroyd take down the house with 4 words.

https://www.hulu.com/watch/2306/saturday-night-live-point-counterpoint-lee-marvin-and-michelle-triola

CreditCrumbs · Sep 8, 2011 - 2:02am

Ron Paul is finished

Friends, 

as much as I like Ron Paul, I think the debate has damaged his candidacy. First, he was set up with questions like air traffic controller or fema where people think that government is really needed. He seemed to not realize that he was being set up. Second, his platform used to be unique such as "bring the troops home", "audit the fed", "reduce government size", "ponzi economic", and "fire Bernokio". Now, it is no longer unique. Many candidates have co-opted parts of it. 

- bring the troops home: Bachmann

- Ponzi scheme: Perry

- Audit the fed: Gingrich

- Fire Bernokio: Romney, Gingrich

- Reduce gov size: all candidates

- Eliminate education department: someone (I forgot who)

In a way, he has been successful in influencing the issues that are debated and platforms of others. However, his own candidacy is now in serious trouble as it is no longer unique. And the moderators successfully painted him as an extreme person who wanted to gut the entire government.

He happens to be the only one I can trust in terms of integrity of characters, and which side he is fighting for. Unfortunately, though, now I seriously doubt he can recover from this debate. 

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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