Watching the metals battle horizontal and MA resistance made me think of our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site. Clearly, it still applies today.

So, where are we on this fine Friday? Well, first of all, those we're some perfect and beautiful FUBMs yesterday. And don't let the silly name throw you. The FUBM is an extremely powerful and important chart formation. Why? It shows that, even though The Cartels would like to rig prices lower, they are unable to do so because of strong demand for both paper and physical at the discounted/rigged prices. We saw a bunch of FUBMs back in early 2011, when prices were preparing to stage their massive rallies. Here are just a few examples:

Do yesterday's FUBMs signal that a similar move is coming over the horizon? We'll see, I guess.

Another bit of circumstantial evidence of the impending rally comes from the sales of ASEs out of the U.S. Mint. The biggest January on record was January of 2011 with sales of 6.4MM ounces. Yesterday, as we crossed the 6MM mark on just the 17th of the month, The Mint suddenly "suspended sales" through at least the 28th. ( This looks and smells pretty fishy to me. Are they trying to mask and conceal demand OR are they simply out of metal? Actually, who cares?? Either situation is extremely bullish for silver. Since silver has proven to be a rare "Giffen Good" where demand actually increases as price increases, this overwhelming investment demand is just another, very strong indicator of future price.

But if the U.S. mint is having so much trouble finding silver that they have to suspend sales, how on earth can the SLV find and secure 18.4MM ounces (572 metric tonnes) in just one day?? ( Pretty amazing, huh? Let's see, you can only load and transfer about one tonne at a time, maybe two if your truck is big enough. But the logistical magicians in the Custodial Department of JPM are able to transfer 300 truckloads in a day. Wow! No wonder they make the big bucks!

Even more amazing is the fact that this (alleged) addition brings the new silver added to SLV up to 650 metric tonnes, year-to date. On 1/2/13, the total tonnes in trust were 10,085. As of last night, the number was 10,735. That's an increase of 6.44%.

More amazing still is the fact that these (alleged) additions have taken place while the GLD has seen a huge drawdown. On 1/2/13, the total gold held in the GLD was 1348.92 tonnes. As of last night, it was down to 1332.61. That's a drop of 16.31 tonnes or 1.21% in just the past two weeks. So, silver is magically appearing while gold is disappearing. Hmmmm. What do you make of that? The most obvious answer is that it's all just a big charade and scam, but, what do I know? Who am I to question something that seems so obvious? I'm sure that everything is completely on the up-and-up. That JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC does the same for GLD only inspires confidence, right? Right???

Back to silver, a Turdite named "Ballyale" graciously shared with us an interesting, if anecdotal, tale last week regarding his interactions with Apple and their production delays in producing Imacs, etc. Ballyale speculated that these delays were due to the current scarcity of available silver (though it's clear that plenty is available for the SLV). The good guys over at SilverDoctors took the story and ran with it, today producing a post that neatly sums it all up. I encourage you to read this thoroughly.

And this is fun. Jeff Nielson at BullionBullsCanada has written another excellent and well thought-out piece on silver manipulation and he discusses it in the context of platinum which, as you know, we are currently watching very closely here at TFMR. (Retreating from its fourth attempt at $1700 as I type.) Please read this article and support Jeff's site. He's a good dude and he works very hard, trying to expose and publicize the manipulation.

Then there's this. On Wednesday I received an email from a longtime Turdite. I found it so alarming that I immediately wrote him back to ask if I could share it with the entire community. Thankfully, he obliged. Presented below without comment. Please give your full consideration to this, too.

Thank you again for your dedicated service.  I'm a daily reader and a big fan.
I wanted to take a minute and share with you a very scary experience I had yesterday (Jan 15).  I keep a portion of my rock collection at JP Morgan Chase in safety deposit boxes.  This has been my bank since I moved to this town, I have had these boxes for nearly 10 years.  Several years ago I was given 2 of them for "free" as a thank you for the various accounts I had with this branch.  There seems to be quite a bit of turnover at the retail level and the branch manager that gave me these boxes left 2 years ago.  I have been to the bank many, many times since then and got to know the new people to a lesser degree than the previous manager.  I confirmed with the new manager that the same arrangement was in place, she agreed.
Yesterday I went to my JP Morgan Chase branch to make a deposit and touch my collection as I often do.  The teller looked puzzled and said "We've been looking for you!".  My address hasn't changed, my phone number hasn't changed and they volume of junk mail/account statements sent by them hasn't changed.  "We've been sending you letters for the last year about your boxes, they are going to be drilled on 1/31 with the contents sent to the State of *******.  Once they go to The State, it can take up to 2 years to get your property back after you pay the levies, fines and fees".  Needless to say, the blood ran out of my face.  The teller explained to me that my payments were past due for the boxes and it was their policy to drill the boxes and send the contents to The State after a year.  Needless to say, I stopped caring about the deposit and began moving the contents.  She assured me that she would wipe the issue clean and we'd be fine so I wouldn't have to move anything.  Yeah right, my pockets and quickly emptied briefcase nearly gave out as I left 20 minutes later.
How is it that I 5 pieces of mail from The Morgue each week but not these critical pieces?  How is it they'd just drill the lock and send the contents away (probably in the trunks of their cars to their homes) when my phone number and address is the same as it's been?  Why would they not just call me?  Maybe just debit my account which they do for the other boxes and nonsense?  I know most of these people by first name and they know me the same.  I often see these people at Starbucks and the grocery and we exchange handshakes and pleasantries.  Nice.
I thought that some of the collection in The Morgue wasn't a bad idea for diversification's sake and that they're probably the last to go as an organization so it was safer there.  Wrong!
Here is just another example of why not to trust banks and why not to let phyzz out of your control.
Keep doing what you're doing and we'll keep stacking and thanking you for your sound guidance daily.

Next, Jim Quinn has a great, new piece that you should be sure to read over the weekend:

And, finally, the charts. I'm delighted to report that both gold and silver look terrific on their respective dailies. Yesterday's failed raids only made them look better in that both metals were able to paint bullish, engulfing candles, too.

Today, both metals are dealing with horizontal AND moving average resistance (silver 50-day is $32.03 and gold is $1697) and this has momentarily stalled the advance. Additionally, we've got a 3-day weekend ahead here in the U.S. and that usually means that there are more sellers than buyers hanging around. That's OK. I'm confident that we'll put these levels behind us early next week and then we'll move on to The Big Test. This event, subsequently known as "TBT", will set the stage for the rest of the spring. IF the meals can pass this test...meaning IF the metals can break resistance and get above all of their respective moving averages...the stage will be set for a very strong rally. Could it be a repeat of 2011? Possibly. Many of the same conditions exist (ongoing QE, tight supply, strong demand, etc). All I know is that nothing happens until and unless the metals pass TBT. For now, sit tight and watch. Get ready for some fireworks and unnerving volatility. But, be optimistic for there is much to be excited about.

OK, that's all for now. Please be sure to check back later as I will be releasing a special and very important podcast dealing with the German Gold story. I'll also have some thoughts on this week's CoT, once it's released at 3:30 EST.

Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Get ready for next week and the start of TBT.



Prize Fighter's picture

That's not the AP writing

That's not the AP writing that copy because that never happened.  No way, no how, did some dude slap a sticker on POTUS limo.  lol  Funny though.

HappyNow's picture

Byzantium, The money printing


The money printing isn't all that clandestine.  Yes Europe was saved because most of the world is doing the same thing; racking up impossible debt and then printing money to pay it.

Each time a country (or group) prints more money it makes room for the next country to print more.    Debt works likewise.   Just keep saying "Oh yeah? You should see the OTHER guy" and all will be well.

Until somebody stops, or somebody new enters the picture there doesn't have to be an end. 

Recall the concern that China could entrap the USA by holding so much debt and then calling it in? It didn't happen and the explanation was that actually it would backfire because they would be paid in newly printed and therefore worth less dollars. 

There is no easy end to this.  Continuing is much more friendly to leaders.

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is despicable


If there's anyone left who doesn't believe that manipulated and that the "markets" are controlled by HFTs, take a look at these charts.

All of these snapshots were taken at 3:56 pm EST on Tuesday, Thursday and today. Note the disgustingly obvious similarities. Also note that, in total, these three Globex thefts account for a total of $20 being clipped from price. Without this brutal, criminal and disgusting action, would gold be $20 higher right now? Damn straight! Maybe more! To me, this is akin to outright theft. Not only have the values of futures and options been jammed lower, how about the holders of ETFs and other funds? They've been robbed, too.


On a happier note, both CoTs were delightful this week. Silver in particular where the OTJPM Cartel added another 1,360 longs, bringing their gross total to 46,377. This is the highest gross level since the CoT of 8/14/12 and I think we all know what happened to price over the next 6 weeks.

Byzantium's picture

@ Bollocks

I understand where you are coming from, but the earlier red alerts were not about the standard of living, or underlying sovereign financial health, but of imminent bond market, currency and banking collapses. The Eurozone's status has been propped up very successfully somehow. Yes, printing; but then in light of Japanese, UK & US QE, the suppression on the gold price has been unbelievable. Specifically, the predictions of nearly every pundit has been dashed (at least for now), and we are reminded again not to underestimate the cartel. They've been 'on their last legs' for years now, and yet casually rescued Europe from implosion, with their boot simultaneously on the neck of the gold-price.

So as to 'How did they do that,' we need to understand, because what is to stop their ongoing manipulative success?

I quoted Rastani and Sinclair as examples, but they were just two voices in a large choir. The European 'crisis' seems to have calmed down, not only in the MSM world, but in the blogosphere too.

That Rastani clip captures the blogosphere perspective of the time quite well; interesting to watch it now with hindsight.

Byzantium's picture

@ happynow

Thanks for the response.

See my reply to Bollocks just now; global QE is what you describe, and yet they keep the lid on gold too, and in spite of ZIRP. Are we really sure that we are anywhere near endgame?

Urban Roman's picture

Not a metals quote, but:

Behold the work of perfectly-tuned algo-bots ...


maravich44's picture

OK ...last shot....

Turd. Why?.. People with influence and cash do not buy and take delivery? I mentioned Sprott. His circle of friends. Any theories?

Al Huxley's picture


If you REALLY liked, say, corn chips, and you knew there was a very limited supply of corn chips around, but the grocery stores were for some reason trying to suppress this, by providing people with coupons to buy corn chips in the future at below the price on the shelf, and as a result the shelf price stayed low, there was no run on corn chips, and you could get all you want for a discount, wouldn't that be the BEST OF ALL POSSIBLE WORLDS for you?  And given that, would you complain to the grocery store about corn chip price manipulation, or get all your friends together to try and raise the visibility of the pending corn chip shortage by trying to buy out all the stock on the shelves?  Or would you and your select, very closest friends, just take full advantage of the discount and discretely buy up as many corn chips as you could afford?

Al Huxley's picture

@Maravich44 ps

...and just a quick additional note - would the low price of corn chips make you think 'hey, maybe I shouldn't like these damn things, after all they're pretty cheap, it seems like I'm the only one buying them.  Maybe I don't like them after all'?  Or would you think 'I can't believe I'm able to buy all these corn chips so cheap, especially given the looming corn chip supply crunch!'?

Road_Scholar's picture

The Globex (aftermarket)

I can't help but think of the "flying monkey" trader every day at the beginning of Globex trading.  It must be like the scene from Animal House when the girl passed out and Pinto is standing over her bed.  He has a moral dilemma with his conscience:  

Angel, "LAWRENCE!!!, you know you shouldn't manipulate the markets- especially this late when no one is even here.  Don't even lay one finger on that keyboard." 

Devil, "You Homo.  Aw, don't listen to that jack-off.  You'll never get a better chance.  Smash the price now!" 

And down goes gold/silver...


Prize Fighter's picture

I want to thank all of you

I want to thank all of you for your continued fight, posts and spirit.  Its so nice to stay up to date and feel safe with the information presented.  I don't have much to add these days other than cynicism so I relegate myself to read-only mode more and more.  I'm just exasperated with describing the same shit over and over.  I actually turned on my Xbox360 for the first time last month after collecting dust for 4 years. 

Those silver bullets are kick ass.  Thanks!

As for the Mint shutdown, I don't think it has anything to do with the Mint trying to manipulate YOY monthly numbers.  They sold millions in just days because they closed for 3 weeks.  I think they know what this second shutdown is going to do to February YOY numbers and then what?  I'll be really interested in the new premiums which you know are coming.   The days of $2.49 are over.  Maybe the days of eagles are over?  Who knows?  They sure don't!

Whether its a sourcing issue of 1000 oz bars, 1 oz planchettes, or getting the machines properly staffed, it all boils down to price being lower than the underlying product can be serviced.  This is not the result of an efficient market.   This is the weak link breaking in a rigged market.

I like tinkering with my micro RC helicopters which means fixing them twice as much as I fly them.  What I can never get around though is whenever I strengthen a "weak" part, I invariably break something new somewhere else because I've created a new weakest link.  That break is usually much more costly than if I had just resigned to deal with the natural stress point. 

My point is, who knows why it broke this time again but it's ultimately the result of messing with it in the first place.  The longer they delay the truth, aka price, the funnier this is going to get.  Not haha funny either but, you know....funny.

Well, back to Fallout3.  Have fun storming the castle!

Larry's picture


Could be that nobody here knows the answer to your question. The only ones that do know are the ones in the game, both the white hats and the black hats... and they ain't sayin'. The cards are in the hands but no human will know what will make them lay'em down or how or when they get played. That's of course my own opinion. 

Al Huxley... would those be GMO corn chips? :)

Turd Ferguson's picture

I don't know


I wish I did. Pisses me off, too.

Response to: OK ...last shot....
maravich44's picture

10-4 Al Huxley...........

sometimes i feel this way.

maravich44's picture



maravich44's picture

future turds...

SF 34 Houston17.. NE 38 Balt27.

ballyale's picture

Ship of Fools Great video. Thanks. eom


Mammoth's picture

Just Showing Off My Junk

Greetings Turdites!  Lately I haven't been visiting here as often and a quick glance at today's posts shows plenty of good comments & discussion, but little in the way of 'eye-candy.'  Here is a close-up photo I made of a nice 1896 Morgan Silver Dollar that I picked up from the local coin shop for $25 a few weeks back.

After bringing home my recent purchase, for fun I looked at them using a magnifying glass, and found what I first thought was a nasty scratch on this coin.  But closer examination, under higher magnification, revealed the 'scratch' is in fact a raised line across the reverse of this coin.  Apparently the die this Silver Dollar was stamped with, had a crack in it!

Anyway - enjoy the photo.

Cheers, Mammoth

California Lawyer's picture


I've been here, mostly reading, and not having much time to post.  January for me is by far the busiest time of the year generally.  Everyone wants their lawyer to move their case, and basically nothing happens during the holidays, so come January, it's ON!!

I will come up for air as we hit springtime.  Same patterns, year after year.

Thank you, though, for the damn funny post.  That is absolutely classic.  That is about as funny as a lawyer billing the client for preparing the bill . . . [which I used to do, by the way, at the insistence of my boss, the greedy bastard!]

A quick anecdote, though.

The word on the ground in the IE is grim from a job's perspective.  Nothing going on, economy is in a shambles.  Still getting calls from folks wanting to do bankruptcies.  These hardy types have gone 5-6 years, barely keeping their heads above water, but now, the credit cards are all maxed, the credit lines have been tapped or shut off, the unemployment benefits are ending or have ended, and hard choices are now being made.  It is rather sad, too.  

The central planners at the Fed and our incestuous, corrupt and criminal government are to blame, and it just sickens me to see the suffering.

Oh yeah, I could not do my monthly ammo purchase, because they were sold out!  DOH!

How do I calculate the inflation increase when the monthly purchase is zero?  Oh well.  I may have to try another gun/ammo shop.

Just did DROS another AR-15 lower.  $495 for the stripped lower, built up by my crack gunsmith buddy, plus $75 for the dealer transfer fee.  Sheesh!  Should I have stacked some precious metal, or this thing?  Who knows.  Now I have two AR-15 platforms.  

Molon Labe mother fuc-ers!!  [Maybe I will tell everyone how I really feel . . .]

Have a great Friday everyone!

¤'s picture

Caravans of Gold

Africa: Ep 3 - Caravans of Gold

This is the third installment of Basil Davidson's educational "Africa Series".

Basil Davidson is an acclaimed writer and Africanist historian. His works are required reading in many British universities. He is globally recognized as an expert on African History. He currently lives in Somerset, England and frequently travels to Africa.


Boswell's picture

Re: Die Crack

Could be a "winner"!???

Apparently Q.C. wasn't too good in the "Old Days".

opticsguy's picture

speaking of caravans

Can you believe the country that let this video be produced ever existed?

silver66's picture

silver bullets

placed an order for 5 little ones and a big one for the office desk(as Wayne from Waynes world would say)

NWTM says they will ship Feb 4th

I will keep Turdville appraised


¤'s picture

Planet Caravan / Fairies Wear Boots

                     atomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cacheatomjacked inventory cache


¤'s picture

If you live in Germany... might consider getting your rod and reel out soon.

Fish Invasion Monster Catfish Taking Over German Rivers

Fish Invasion: Monster Catfish Taking Over German Rivers

The enormous wels catfish is rapidly expanding in German waters. The fish can grow up to 10 feet long and weigh over 300 pounds, making recreational fishermen excited about the prospects of catching one. While biologists aren't yet calling the fish pests, they are puzzled by the boom. more...

Strawboss's picture

Hey Turd - still very

Hey Turd - still very interested to learn how you separate out the JPM position from the other commercials... please advise...

Dawg's picture

AR-15 Lower

Cal Law,

Last gun ban everyone bought lowers. Guess what? No uppers available!



silvercity's picture

The pastor weighs in on the shortage. Kuchek.

I have listened to a few of his videos.  Then I took the liberty of doing some google searches on this man.  There have been complaints about him and the church he leads.  Some people accuse him of leading a cult.  He has people living on his property etc and they work for food and have limited access to family members.  They give what they have to his so called church.  Now, I do not know this man personally but I advise you to do some google searches on this man so you at least know a little about him.  I don't trust him.  As far as silver goes he doesn't know anything about silver nor does he have anything to offer us turdites.  

¤'s picture

Take Me To The River

ag1969's picture

So much wrong with this

U.S. Mint Silver Coins Run Out as Buying at 5-Year High

The U.S. Mint sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins at a time when investors bought the most metal in five years through the biggest exchange-traded product.

The mint’s sales are “temporarily” suspended and will resume on or about the week of Jan. 28 when inventory is replenished, it said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust jumped 571.6 metric tons on Jan. 16, an increase now valued at $584 million. Prices may rise as much as 27 percent to $40.25 an ounce this year, a Bloomberg survey of 49 analysts, traders and investors last month showed.

Enlarge imageU.S. Mint Silver Coins Run Out as Fund Buying at 5-Year High

U.S. Mint Silver Coins Run Out as Fund Buying at 5-Year High

U.S. Mint Silver Coins Run Out as Fund Buying at 5-Year High

U.S. Mint via Bloomberg

The reverse side of a 2013 American Eagle Silver coin.

The reverse side of a 2013 American Eagle Silver coin. Source: U.S. Mint via Bloomberg

Global assets in silver ETPs climbed to a record valued at $20.1 billion as central banks from the U.S. to China pledged more steps to boost economic growth. The stimulus is raising demand for precious metals as a hedge against faster inflation and currency debasement. Strengthening economies may also benefit silver, because 53 percent of it is used in everything from televisions to batteries, the Silver Institute says.

“With silver, you can benefit from both sides: its safe- haven status and the fact that it’s also an industrial commodity,” said Frederique Dubrion, the Geneva-based president and chief investment officer of Blue Star Advisors SA, which manages metals and energy assets. “Given some positive leading indicators, especially in the U.S., investors would probably prefer turning to silver rather than to gold.”

Silver Price

Silver for immediate delivery climbed 4.8 percent to $31.795 in London this month, extending last year’s 9 percent advance. Only platinum among the main four precious metals has performed better so far in January, rising 9.9 percent. Silver reached a record $49.79 in April 2011.

Global ETP assets were at an all-time high of 19,686.55 tons yesterday, equal to about nine months of mine production, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. The increase in the iShares Silver Trust two days ago was the biggest since December 2007. BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the manager of the fund, confirmed the figures.

The U.S. Mint sold 6.01 million ounces of American Eagle silver coins so far this month. That’s the most since the 6.11 million ounces sold in January last year, its website shows. December’s total was 1.64 million ounces.

Sales have been suspended before. The mint stopped selling most American Eagle coins made from precious metals in November 2009 because of depleted inventories. It said in May 2011 that its San Francisco facility would start producing silver American Eagles to meet demand at “unprecedented high levels.” The Austrian Mint said in February 2011 it would stop making silver coins for general circulation after prices surged.

Coin Sales

“It is easy to infer that some element of the fear trade may be at play,” Joni Teves, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote today in an e-mailed report. “We view the chunky sales of American Eagle coins more a function of seasonality than anything else. It is important to keep an eye on U.S. coin sales in the coming months to see if volumes remain elevated as the debt ceiling showdown plays out.”

Hedge funds and other speculators cut bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and held a net-long position of 21,002 contracts by Jan. 8, the least since Aug. 21, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Prices rebounded 8.7 percent since reaching a four-month low of $29.24 on Jan. 4.

Options traders are divided, with the most widely held contract conferring the right to sell at $20 by the end of this year, while the next most popular contract gives owners the right to buy at $50 by then, Comex data show. The metal will be at $30.50 in three months, and $30.10 in six and 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast Jan. 13.

Debt Ceiling

The ETP and coin demand comes amid political wrangling between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers over the U.S. debt ceiling. Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the debt limit 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department.

While the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year on Jan. 15 to 2.4 percent, from a June projection of 3 percent, it expects expansion to accelerate to 3.1 percent in 2014. A car contains as much as 30 grams of silver and a mobile phone about 0.25 gram, according to the Washington-based Silver Institute.

While gold’s 12-year rally is the longest winning streak in at least nine decades and prices are 12 percent below the record set in September 2011, its 7.1 percent gain last year was the smallest since 2008. Silver is trading 36 percent below its all- time high.

The recent jump in silver demand may be as some investors seek an alternative to gold’s “lackluster performance,” Deutsche Bank AG said today in a report. Investor interest in silver “remains key” because supply will outpace demand by 6,441 tons this year, Barclays said Jan. 16.

“Investors appear to be putting their money increasingly into silver ETFs as an investment alternative,” analysts at Commerzbank AG wrote today in a report. “It can only be a question of time before the buoyant ETF demand causes the silver price to rise.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at

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