What Now?

254
187
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/hoping-to-be-wrong.html

In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa

paper_6-23pmgold.jpgpaper_6-23pmsilv.jpg

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 190

  254 Comments

zenith191 · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:08pm

Re: Silver is not gold.

I can't believe three people gave you rep for this post. Next thing you'll be telling us it only cost $5 to mine an ounce of silver.

You keep talking, I'll keep stacking.

Rui · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:10pm

An interesting pattern on gold

Might have been posted but here it is anyway: Look at how gold interacts with 150-DMA.

Monedas Seacap81 · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:21pm

A sadder but wiser Seacap81 !

It's a crap shoot ! On the encouraging side.....if you can put togetether a stack of 1,000 ounces AG......you've got it made ! It's a manageable stack you can defend and will give you a leg up over so many ! It's going to be a job hanging on to our stacks ! Many have more than they will be able to defend ! Trade if you dare.....but never neglect your hoard ! There are going to be horror stories galore when some of these paper markets come undone ! Monedas 2011 To jump from these newer office buildings you have to get to roof ! I'm miss the old days when window jumping was easy !

Monedas · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:42pm

Gambling for Gold ?

Isn't that the Mother of all oxy-morons ? Using the riskiest game to bag the safest "game" ! Even many of you who have done quite well should honestly compare your performance to that if you had hoarded ! You don't have to be the richest or the biggest winner to be happy ! Concentrate on security, safety and enjoying life ! Every ounce of silver in your hand is a little futures contract.......with no fees, no maintenance, no margin calls, no defaults...... but with more intrinsic leverage than most of us dare to dream ! It's also an oxy-moron to buy future contracts on something that has so much intrinsic future value......it's over kill ! Ginger ? What a little sweetheart you are......and a savy PM Mama to boot ! I don't do this too often ! I extend to you a permanent, unconditional proposal of matrimony ! Do you live in a community property state ? heart Sigh ! Monedas 2011 Not too macho to fall in love ! https://trololololololololololo.com/

Cleburne61 · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:42pm

I don't wanna sound

I don't wanna sound conspiracy-theorish since that's for a specific forum, but....remember what we saw the Cartel do in April/May to take silver down? Silver is the elite's achilles heel. It truly is. Silver is a leading indicator for all commodities. Stopping silver effectively took down gold, oil, the whole ball of wax. Just as Mike Maloney insists taking silver down with the Hunts was perpetrated in order to cap gold prices in 1980.

We had a rising price in gold and silver after the Fed speech yesterday...with only a week left to go til July first day notice, we were on the verge of a huge breakout.... Even the Turd bought gold calls for crying out loud, that's how convincing it was!!! 

Comex is down to 27.7 million oz, and we still had 165 million who hadn't rolled. Honestly, is it crazy to ask the question: Did the Cartel orchestrate the oil dump etc to help hammer silver down to "knock leaves from the tree" as Harvey says? I don't think it is. Look at what we saw them do in May...we would scarcely have believed they'd have done that if we hadn't watched it in real time. JPM High Frequency Trading monkeys knocking off $6 bucks in 12 minutes on a dead day? Brokerage houses colluding with the CME? 5 hikes in a week? A parade of ignorant TV pundits calling it a bubble? Comex volume reaching 1.3 billion oz in one day? SLV trading 8 BILLION "ounces" in one week?

Guys...come on...I've never ever seen these guys announce a 30 million barrel dump of emergency reserves for something as trite as "stuff's happening in Libya". They need silver Comex to hang on til after the announcement of more QE. The more I think about it, silver is the single, biggest threat to TPTB in existence. We're not giving this silver problem its due.

Jdawg Dimeboy · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:50pm

Junk Silver Dimes

I have 3100 plus silver dimes. They will be worth it when the SHTF

Eric Original · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:57pm

JDawg

Nice!

SilverIsKing · Jun 23, 2011 - 11:07pm

Cleburne

@Cleburne You make a great point. Just think about the effort they put into surpressing the silver price. That really says it all. Question is, is this done to protect JPM or the USA...or both?

Bay of Pigs · Jun 23, 2011 - 11:14pm

GATA Gold Rush 2011

Just a head's up for those who are in London or Europe, you really should try to catch this conference. I'd say it's the best one ever held to date. Absolutely incredible lineup of speakers. Turk, Embry, Sprott, Howe, Davies, Rickards, Salinas Price, GATA boys, and Santa himself, Jim Sinclair. 

I'd be there myself if I could swing it. I know it would be worth every penny to see this conference.

https://www.gatagoldrush.com/conferenceagenda.pdf

coinbuysell Big Buffalo · Jun 23, 2011 - 11:43pm

Physical

I have rolls of the Morgan and Buffalo rounds and they are nice but don't expect US Mint type strikes...again, I like them but they can be a little ticky and/or sloppy.

I usually buy the lowest premium gold (usually Maple Leaf's or Krugs) but I will pay a little extra for a Buffalo when available.

SilverSerf · Jun 23, 2011 - 11:48pm

Oanda...

I got my letter from Oanda (Forex trading account) yesterday, I will no longer be allowed to trade Gold or Silver on margin with them as of July 15th. Thank you very much Mr. Dodd, for stabbing us little guys in the back. I will be taking all the money I was trading PM's in the paper market and buy physical silver. I wonder how many other traders will be doing that? It takes awhile to get the money moved back to an actual bank, probably about a week. This Dodd crap should push thousands of paper traders into the physical market. Their little manipulation plan may just backfire on them.

cbeleo · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:15am

Low volume?

Volume in netdania gold chart for today looks desserted, compared to rest of the days this week. In the past when EE strikes, there is usually good amount of shorts pushing the market down. Today it seems to be light volume across the board - what am I missing?

ghost · Jun 24, 2011 - 12:59am

July first day notice June 30

Silver usually goes up leading up to the COMEX first day notice delivery date thing at the end of every month, does it not? 

Juan Moment · Jun 24, 2011 - 1:10am

Solve4ex and others

Solve4ex and others interested,

Was watching a silverfuturist vid some weeks back where he linked to a metals market trader's blog who warned his viewers in mid April of a possible crash in silver due to margin hikes. Been checking out his channel daily ever since. Anyhow, in his latest vid he mentions the fact that many trading houses stopped offering metals futures past 15th July, but if people are interested in continuing to trade paper silver & gold, they could get in touch with him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBGI3zmRz0c

I am not sure what's involved but could be worth a try.

mastercylinder · Jun 24, 2011 - 1:22am

Laugh lately?

Right then! Though I clearly have still not figured out this graphics insert thing, one of the many lessons I learned from watching cartoons was that I can do anything I want, so why sweat the details!>? 

So where are we today, after the Beagle Boys ONCE AGAIN & MOST PREDICTABLY raided the Duckburg Gold Depository? 

Hmm, todays comments show clearly that some of the audience refused my sage advice of yesterday to cough up for some old gems from the classic days of cartoons and then take some quality time out to learn what you need to know about holding PMs. They are depressed, because they have not been blessed with the wisdom what us oldsters gained before grade school. Because I love this site so much, & FROM THE MERE KINDNESS OF MY HEART, I'm going to give yáll another opportunity to get with the program here.

TOONTOWN 101.

Today's picture. What have we here? It seems that the same gaggle of punk crimesters as usual, changed out of their MBA ECON suits into their CRIMEX uniforms, just conducted yet another raid on the home of one SCROOGE McDUCK, a well entitled gentleman of the hoarding class. In fact, they were already on their way to the BEAGLE BOYS hideout, where MA BEAGLE counts the proceeds and everybody giggles madly at the ease of the snatch!

But what's this? Nobodys giggling. Somebody, emboldened by some secret knowledge, is doing the DUCKWALK, which is a way of steppin out that comes to the PM investor who has passed the test by bein blest by TOONTOWN wisdom.

What does McDuck know that all these whiny acolytes of the shiny here don't, you ask yurself? 

McDuck, wise ol bird that he is, knows that bluff and bravado ALWAYS win the day on the field of battle. Well turned out*as always-note to slackers!*, cheerful as a robin in the morning mist, he walks by the scene of the crime with narry a worry, which has clearly caused the jaded jailbirds to lose their momentum. No, he is not counting all the loot he has lost, callin the cops, or moping around dwelling on the unfairness of life; McDuck has projected a confidence and winning attitude that as always, sends the bad guys reeling with a wretched feeling of perplexity...

Chock up another one for the DUCK - All the WHITE stuff in a room full o BLACK SWANS!

 

doughbot · Jun 24, 2011 - 1:42am

atlas shrugged

I believe Ayn Rand explained what's happening in the US in her book Atlas Shrugged.

If you're lazy, read the cliff notes. If you're really really lazy just read John Galt's speech.

Don't watch the movie. They made that thing in 3 months in order to protect "story rights".

-doughbot

p.s. I think Turd is John Galt.

beatlebum19 zenith191 · Jun 24, 2011 - 1:42am

There is a silver shortage, silver is Thee indispensable PM

The United States once held more than 85% of all the silver in the world in the 60's the U.S. alone had 353 billion ounces of Silver, there is now a recorded 33 Billion ounces of silver left. Where did all that silver go??? It went to the industrial market silver is in almost every technological' product in the last 30 year. The industry bought all this silver when silver was around 2-3.50 dollars an ounce. Silver is in every piece of technology you can think of at the rate at which it is being consumed in the industry alone silver is on a faster pace than gold to run out of active mines. There is now more gold in existence than there is silver, and once the industry swoops in and takes the last of what they get before prices increase it will cause the biggest silver boom in history, throughout history silver as been roughly at a ratio of 12-1 when compared to gold right now it is around 43-1 in favor of gold so a major correction from this alone lie's ahead, Not to mention the upcoming supply and demand boom. Ride the Silver Eagle straight to prosperity that's my take.

Xeno · Jun 24, 2011 - 2:29am

Pair Trade Unwind?

Much has been said of the hedgies being long bullion and short the miners. With the recent announcements of forex cut backs, could the hedgies be helping the BB's and deleveraging themselves?

I mean, they sell the bullion so their friends can cover their shorts in bullion, then they take the long bullion profits and cover their shorts on the miners. Since the BB's are covering bullion shorts, the downside may be limited but with them now covering the shorts on miners, big ups?

Santa said they'd be covering short of miners soon and maybe this is how they can while helping their friends extricate themselves from bullion shorts? And if so, wouldn't y'all expect big up moves in both?

My gut says good chance.

LongGoldLongSilver · Jun 24, 2011 - 3:27am

Stack up!

Who cares about if the metals will go sideways or not the next couple of months? The whole financial system is on its death bed. You better stack up that physical while you can and now seems to be a good opportunity!

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 3:38am
stoneeh · Jun 24, 2011 - 5:56am

Very confidence instilling

Very confidence instilling words by Santa.

Well, they've already admitted to continuing QE as QE Lite, but I too think that will not prove to be enough. But it's already enough to push gold and silver prices much higher, although they are of course, right now, artificially held down (with great effort I might add - look at the now nearly 2000 tonnes of silver that were sold from SLV into the open market over the last 1, 2 months).

I wouldn't describe the current situation in the PMs as despair. I personally find it boring.. perhaps a little exhausting. But obviously the lows have been found (a little under 1500 for gold and a little under 33 for silver), and from here it's just waiting for it to go up again.

- Markus

stoneeh · Jun 24, 2011 - 5:58am

Ah yes and it helps too that

Ah yes and it helps too that the 200day MA in silver is now around 31,5$. Every day this is moving more towards the current level of around 35$.

You gotta realize that a drop towards the 200d MA would cause a lot of people that are sitting on the sidelines to buy.. in a already tight market. The EE cannot allow that to happen.

- Markus

stoneeh · Jun 24, 2011 - 6:05am

Re: beatlebum19

"The United States once held more than 85% of all the silver in the world in the 60's the U.S. alone had 353 billion ounces of Silver, there is now a recorded 33 Billion ounces of silver left."

Where do you get your numbers mate? According to my numbers, world inventories are around 1-3bn oz.

You wouldn't even get to a 33bn oz number for the US if you count all the government owned silver (none), those of private individuals (very little) and the funds (also very little to none).

But yeah, anyone who can add 1 + 1 should be able to come to the conclusion that due to the fact that silver is used and gold is hoarded AND that there are a lot more years of mining supply in gold left than in silver, that silver will at one point be more valuable than gold.. and that despite the fact that gold will also rise dramatically.

- Markus

Capt. Willard · Jun 24, 2011 - 6:20am

Brainstorming the PMs

Where is Gold going to close?

Below 1517 $/Oz., because very few want to carry their positions over the weekend?

200d MA for Gold is somewhere at 1408 $/Oz. Is Gold going to range trade and wait for the 200d MA to catch up a little around the month of August? It's hard to wait for RSI and all the rest of the indicators to touch oversold, if you eyeball Santa's prediction for the PMs to rallye during the summer.

I feel like a fox chasing after two rabbits and they seperate to the left and the right. I tend to believe we're seeing lower prices still. Franklin Sanders over at goldprice.org commentary believes the point to back the truck up is approaching and close, but there will be lower lows before that.

Lumpy · Jun 24, 2011 - 6:59am

Crime Stoppers

Turd, 

Every city has a police dept. anonymous tip help line. They offer some cash reward for good information to solve crimes. They call it the"Crime Stoppers" tip line.

I just wonder why one or two high net worth types, or a bunch of little Turds, don't offer a reward of some kind for some good whistle blower information.

Andrew McGuire gave up some information for free. There has to be some down on their luck or greedy guy or gal who would gladly give up some good info for some cash.

When I hit the lotto I will be giving up some BIG CHEESE for some step by step....this is how they're sticking it to you in 3 easy steps....solid, verifiable, stop the presses the game is over information. 

I want names, faces, favorite color, everything about these Silver Manipulation Masters...........BASTARDS!!!!!!!

Have a nice day. Good job on the website Turd! 

worldend666 · Jun 24, 2011 - 7:43am

Was it always like this?

Rumours have been around since 1999 about Comex default, PM manipulation and gold and silver to the moon. Is it really different now? I am just asking because I want to try to get a balanced perspective. Things get pretty hysterical and cultish around here. To make good investment decisions you need to be balanced. 

I remember Greenspan was worried about deflation in 2000. For those old enough to remember - was there talk of fiat collapse in 2000 and 2002 too? Is this just Groundhog day?

gdnchg · Jun 24, 2011 - 8:03am
ewc58 · Jun 24, 2011 - 8:22am

Too funny

"I am just asking because I want to try to get a balanced perspective. Things get pretty hysterical and cultish around here. To make good investment decisions you need to be balanced."

First laugher of the day, and it's a good one!

Shill · Jun 24, 2011 - 8:31am

GDP

  1. 8:31a

    Q1 GDP below up 2.0% forecast

  2. 8:31a

    U.S. Q1 GDP up 1.9% vs 1.8% prev est.

  3. 8:30a

    May durable-goods slightly above expectations

  4. 8:30a

    U.S. May durable-goods orders up 1.9%

Colonel-Angus · Jun 24, 2011 - 8:32am

Well, well. well, those July

Well, well. well, those July 40 calls I've been holding for a while and expire in a couple of days are consigned to the turd bucket. Not you turd but the real thing! Yesterday ask was $0.07, no takers. lol Can't expect every trade to be a winner............ O but those Oct. 30 puts I picked up a couple of days ago, sweet. Hopefully I can get out with a small gain to make up some flat. Turd I'm still reading every day, hang in there. Doldrums can dishearten even the most disciplined.

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