Looking Forward (and Glancing Behind While Doing So)

67
Mon, May 19, 2014 - 12:02pm

Last year on 29th September I made a blog post entitled Gold & Politics & Being a Tracker.

In it I looked at many cycles that are present in the price of gold, and compared some of them with the length of tenure of different political groupings, like Presidents, Congressional tenure, and so on. I used cycle finding software to produce the charts which supported the blog essay. But usually I don't use such an approach for trading as it is more general rather than detailed in it's conclusions. But we all live in hope, so how did those charts work out now we are 7 1/2 months further on in the passage of time?

So I thought that this might be a good time to look back and review.

Here is the final chart from that post in 2013:

So what does this look like now? Was that post a prescient forecast to be proud of, or was it a howler to forget as soon as possible, and skulk away into the shadows until the hue and cry fades?

Well, sort of middling I would say.

Here is the up to date gold price chart, laid on top of the above chart from September 2013:

I hope that readers can, with the help of this review, make more informed judgments of the usefulness, and error proneness, of this kind of approach.

My comment is that the second low, the low at end of 2013, was lower than predicted, and therefore the forecast was/is too bullish. The next low can reasonably be expected to be lower than the prediction too. That suggests that the underlying longer term cycles, or long term trend is still down, or sideways and while is may be bottoming now, it has not yet been observed to have done so.

The shorter term swings turned out fairly well. But watch out, the lows rising like that looks too bullish. Timing of the lows so far was good.

The usual futures trading disclaimer contains a clause to the effect that past performance is no indicator of future performance, and there is truth in that. Good approaches come and then fade away. But the entire investment industry uses methods based upon past success to go forwards into the unknown future, and this is how the learning process works, past experience hopefully gives some insight. Anyway financial cycles are deeply tied up in this matter obviously, so all the usual disclaimers have a wisdom in their application.

I remind readers that every single cycle found by automated methods, I had adjusted and "changed" using my own knowledge so as to better match reality. I don't advise relying blindly on these cycle software algorithms without having some background ways to detect their weaknesses and reduce their effect upon results. That's not saying they are useless, because as can be seen above, they have great utility up to a point.

Good luck with your trades

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  67 Comments


May 20, 2014 - 2:01am

@Spartacus Rex - depends on the question, I guess

Don't want to distract any more from this fine article with more "drama"! :-)

Spartacus Rex
May 20, 2014 - 2:06am

Stephanie...

I may be wrong, but do not imagine myself as a fan of drama, however the question revolves around your unique capabilities as well as Xty's last posted thread, and I have no objection to using PM if you prefer. Thank you for any help offered re: this matter.

Spartacus Rex
May 20, 2014 - 4:55am
erewenguy
May 20, 2014 - 6:29am

Another thread

Another thread spirals into flaming drama oblivion

Take it to the forums!

flyinkel
May 20, 2014 - 6:39am

2 Articles on China/Russia

First is "Isvestia" a Russian newspaper. Second is US. Note how the tones of the two articles are completely different. US portrays Putin as a leper; Russian portrays parades coming out for Putin.

https://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=ru&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fizvestia.ru%2Fnews%2F571092

https://news.yahoo.com/china-gives-putin-diplomatic-boost-042443976.html

Both MSM's are spinning, the truth is probably someplace in the middle.

Appears the inking of the gas/oil deals are progressing.

Gee GL, you can certainly come across as condescending sometimes. Maybe Bag Of Gold can do a "We Love Mr Fix too" picture and we will all get back to our happy place.

Green Lantern
May 20, 2014 - 6:42am

This time “it is different”.

Mr. Fix says "This time “it is different”. To make a long story short, we are still range bound until an economic Armageddon says otherwise. The crash is way past due, but who knows how long they can keep this illusion alive.

Do your own due diligence, and prepare accordingly."

Mr. Fix,

I implore you, challenge you, to read Joseph Farrell's "Babylon Bankers" Heck, I'd even give you my kindle password so you can read it without having to spend the money if I knew you weren't going to order copper cookware for your wife from amazon. You might be savy enough to find a free copy of it somewhere and download the PDF. Read it, Not for me, not for argument, just to see if your assumptions will hold under a discussion of manipulation and cycles. Your assumption that cycles will not trump manipulation has no historical basis. In general, few men know how to interrupt cycles. You'll find tons of examples of it in that book financial and otherwise. Cycles run the world, run all biological species, and run you whether you are aware of it or not. The argument has even been made that the banksters manipulate according to certain celestial cycles.

And Farrell is right up your alley. He is as conspiracy oriented as any writer in the alternative media and a vast array of subjects form ET's to the control matrix of the elite.

Read Shaumburger. Anything by him. Read "When Money Dies" Read "Cycles" by Dewey. Read "A Roadmap of Time" by Brad STeiger. I've not read the last one but somebody here who has and follows AM's cycles tells me it's quite good. Even financial endings and armageddons are not random even if they are being 100% orchestrated. How do you explain that last chart posted? Luck over a long period of time. You probably didn't look at the chart and take the time to see it's implications. At least your comment suggests it.

In return, I'll read anything you recommend that makes the case that we are range bound until Armageddon. I'll do my own due diligence, entertain your philosophy if you give me some inkling of how you arrived at those conclusions, what basis you have for continual making those comments. You know supporting an argument.

If after you're read and digested some of the principles in any of these books, we could have a healthy debate. Until that time, it's simply you stating what you believe and making postulates. So in the spirit of sharing, where would you recommend that I go to do my own due diligence that would enlighten my thinking to understanding the realities as you put them forth?

And also for your consideration. I posted this in the forums last week.

The second greatest faux pas I've seen is the violation of the principle. Correlation Does Not Imply Causation. It happens here everyday. This article seems to be circulating among some traders on the site. It is one of the fundamental principles AM laid down day one regarding events and price and causality. It is the fundamental principle of cycles.

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation.

https://proprietarythinking.wordpress.com/

Some examples.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/innovation/science-questions/10-correlations-that-are-not-causations.htm

atarangi
May 20, 2014 - 6:53am

do you own a tractor

Two rednecks, Bubba and Cooter, decide to go to college. Bubba goes first, and he is advised to take maths, history and logic.

-- "What's logic?" says Bubba.

-- "Well, let me give you an example," says the professor. "Do you own a tractor?"

-- "Sure do," says Bubba.

-- "Okay. Then I assume, using logic, that you have a yard."

-- "That's real good," says Bubba, in awe.

-- "Logic also tells me that since you have a yard, you also have a house. Is that right?"

-- "Gawly!” says Bubba.

-- "And since you own a house and a house is tough to take care of by yourself, the odds are that you have a wife. Right?"

-- "Betty Mae! This is incredible!"

-- "Finally, since you have a wife, logically I can assume you are heterosexual. Is that right?"

-- "You are absolutely right! Why that's the most fascinatin' thang I ever heerd of. I can't wait to take this here logic class!"

Bubba, proud of the new world opening up to him, goes back into the hallway where Cooter is waiting.

-- "So what classes are ya takin’?" says Cooter.

-- "Maths, history and logic," says Bubba.

-- "What in tarnation is logic?"

-- "Let me give you an example," says Bubba. "Do you own a tractor?"

-- "No."

-- "Then you’re gay."

Green Lantern
May 20, 2014 - 7:16am

Flyinkel, GET OFF IT!  My

Flyinkel, GET OFF IT! My post wasn't condescending. You just don't like people telling you are wrong. It invited Mr. Fix to reconsider his point of view and support his own. Your happy place is unsupported postulates. You continue to make the same postulates as you did in AM's last thread. You have no use for charts but you respect him. WTF does that mean? . Of course, the first time you show up in AM's thread in two years is to give me a hard time.

Your animosity is transparent. Give it up. or fuck off. You're not very good at debate and supporting your postulates. Your evasive and when challenged, you get personal. Like you just did. You like to fight for other people especially when it's me challenging them.

And stop posting right after me, on these threads where you disagree with me. It's becoming a habit. Curious timing. Like an eagle who circles his prey. I would have bet money you were going to post after me again. I didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday.

Speak to the issue. Speak to the topic. The portraying Russia as the bad guy was the last thread. You have any thoughts on the subject AM posted. NO. Didn't think so. I see your shit. I can play your game better than you. Keep that in mind if you intend to keep this adolescent shit up.

ps. You called a long time member a troll who isn't one. Now you are trolling me. If you want to debate the subject, let's go. If you want to make personal attacks, hold your tongue and put me on ignore

Go back and read AM's last 5 main street blog posts. It's the same bullshit comment everytime by the same person. Ok. we get it.

Green Lantern
May 20, 2014 - 8:42am

QE is manipulation.  Monetary

QE is manipulation. Monetary policy is manipulation. Kensyiam economics by definition is manipulation. Over 20 boom and busts in the financial of history of the United States is the result of manipulation. They tried to manipulate the end of the Weimar experiment. The more an economy starts to falter, the more they manipulate. And as the US economy continues to decline, we will see more and more manipulation of every kind. That's the manipulation part of the story. Undoubtedly true but only a part of the story.

During the Weirmar republic collapse they kept printing and printing money but at first they weren't seeing any devaluation of the currency. It wasn't the printing at first that was causing the devaluation of the currency. There is no greater manipulation than printing money on a money press unlimited but at first it wasn't that act that was causing the devaluation. It was an outside force. Anybody know that part of the story?

Then when Shaumburger went back to study it, he came to the realization that in the end, the cycle completed itself despite the manipulation. In other words, where the economy went in the end would have gotten to the same place with or without manipulation. It's like driving down the a street with bumps and pot holes. The car jumps up, goes left and right. The car is manipulated in all directions but at some point outside forces, other players, and the cycle get to their destination unless somebody drops a bomb in the road.

I have no arguments with manipulation happening in the metals arena. None at all. That has been established. What happens as a result of it, is a different story? there are other players, and that dynamic has to be considered as well as the cycle. If you want to make an argument that there is no cycle or the cycle has been interrupted, then you have to know at least something, about the nature of cycles and demonstrate it. Which nobody can do if they look at the graph above posted by Am. The same observation was even made by DOW in his letters in the wall street journal. TA, in it's orginal form, not to be confused with what AM is doing here, was created as a way to track manipulation in the market. Richard Russells book reprints all Dow's letters.

atarangi
May 20, 2014 - 8:44am

Flyinkel's tragic accident

Flyinkel wakes up in the hospital bandaged from head to foot.

The doctor comes in and says, "Ah, I see you've regained consciousness. Now you probably won't remember, but you were in a huge pile-up on the freeway. You're going to be ok, you'll walk again and everything, but your penis was severed in the accident and we couldn't find it."

Flyinkel groans, but the doctor goes on, "You've got $9000 in insurance compensation coming and we now have the technology to build a new penis. They work great but they don't come cheap. It's roughly $1000 an inch."

Flyinkel perks up. "So," the doctor says, "You must decide how many inches you want. But I understand that you have been married for over thirty years and this is something you should discuss with your wife.

If you had a five incher before and get a nine incher now she might be a bit put out. If you had a nine incher before and you decide to only invest in a five incher now, she might be disappointed. It's important that she plays a role in helping you make a decision."

Flyinkel agrees to talk it over with his wife. The doctor comes back the next day, "So, have you spoken with your wife?"

"Yes I have," he says. "And has she helped you make a decision?"

"Yes".

"What is your decision?" asks the doctor.

"We're getting granite countertops."

ancientmoney
May 20, 2014 - 8:45am
atarangi
May 20, 2014 - 8:47am

the Irishman

An Irishman is sitting in the pub with his wife and he says, "I love you."

She asks, "Is that you or the beer talking?"

He replies, "It's me talking to the beer."

atarangi
May 20, 2014 - 8:48am

Green Lantern's big day out

G.L. left home about 8:30 a.m. to play golf with his friends. On the way out the door he answered his lovely wife's "what time will you be home?" question with "probably about 1:30. I'll have lunch at the club."
1:30 came & went, 3:00 passed, 6:15, still not home, finally at about 7:00 pm he rolls in the driveway, leaves his clubs in the garage, and presents his wife with a pizza, and begins the apologetic story: "We finished our game about 11:30, had lunch, and I started home, when alongside the road I saw this attractive girl with a flat tire on her car. I stopped to help, got the tire changed, and looked around for a place to wash my hands. She offered money, but I refused, so she suggested that I at least allow her to buy me a beer. She said there's a tavern just up the road, and they have a restroom, you can clean up a bit. I agreed to stop, we had a beer, then another beer, then a couple more, and I realized that this girl was not only pretty, she was very friendly, and a good companion to spend time with. Before I knew it, we were in the motel next door having sex. And that is why I am so late getting home."
His wife looked him in the eye and said "Don't give me that bullshit. You played 36 holes, didn't you?"

silver66
May 20, 2014 - 8:49am

For what it is worth

Here is a note from an e-mail a hedge fund manager sent me Friday.

Economist Friedrich Hayek wrote that "the price system is a mechanism for communicating information." In Free to Choose, Milton and Rose Friedman say that; “Adam Smith's flash of genius was his recognition that the prices that emerged from voluntary transactions between buyers and sellers—for short, in a free market—could coordinate the activity of millions of people, each seeking his own interest, in such a way as to make everyone better off." Both Hayek and Freidman showed how government intervention in the markets distorts prices and therefore output and demand.

Today, we are witnessing the grandest of all price manipulations. The Fed reported balance sheet assets of $4.3 trillion on Wednesday, up nearly one trillion dollars year over year ($982.4 billion). Global governments are intervening in the most important price system of capital allocation – the “risk-free rate.” The Fed has spent nearly a trillion dollars manipulating the yield curve over the past year, while banks buy government bonds to shore up assets and comply with regulatory capital levels. Beyond the Fed and domestic banks, foreign governments are buying treasuries to devalue their currencies versus the US dollar, pension funds are buying bonds to try and eliminate the penalty for being underfunded and retail investors insatiably chase the price momentum of yield.

In my opinion, a major confluence of regulatory and interventionist policies are causing the single largest misallocation of capital in modern history. It is my belief that this grand manipulation of the free market ends only one way – badly. Have a nice weekend.

silver66

erewenguy
May 20, 2014 - 8:50am

AWWW JEEEEZ


I posted my AWWW JEEEEZ on the wrong thread, and now I can't edit it. So sorry folks.

fatjohn
May 20, 2014 - 8:51am

Positive GOFO

https://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics

1-month made a jump of 0.048 to +0.01. Seems like JPM made it with their physical stack

ancientmoney Green Lantern
May 20, 2014 - 8:55am

@GL re: QE is manipulation . . .

Agreed.

Without QE and a whole host of other subsidies, the elite bankers like Dimon and Blankfein would be out on the street. Those banks would have utterly failed in a heartbeat without the QE and other support they have been given for six years running, and that continues today; they should thank the Fed and taxpayors that they even exist.

They seek to preserve their wealth, power and status gained through unconstitutional fiat money.

They and the politicians that set the stage for the deregulations and financial monetizations of the 1980s and 1990s should be serving prison time, but they sure aren't going to throw themselves in jail.

fatjohn
May 20, 2014 - 9:00am

First day positive gofo, Gold

First day positive gofo,

Gold is back in hammering mode at US open.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-20/gold-slammed-panic-seller-dump...

silver66
May 20, 2014 - 9:05am
¤
May 20, 2014 - 9:44am

Pathetic

And I'm the paranoid one?

Keep rambling on and displaying what an absolute piece of work YOU are and try if possible to stop deflecting or projecting criticism onto others.

Have you ever considered some folks criticisms are actually valid? Is that possible or is it ALWAYS everyone else who is misguided. Btw...nice job alienating the remaining posters who tolerate your condescending smarter than thou attitude.

I suppose it would be prudent to stop right there but one question begs to be asked while you're completely full of yourself and shining your paranoid mirror onto others lately.

Explain to everyone again how it was YOU who felt the need to SPY ON and MONITOR the private message system on here the past 3 years while looking for enemies of YOU or the site. Any claims now by yourself that you no longer SPY on certain individuals are laughable and transparent seeing as how you just referred to your continued ability to check or lurk into private account info.

I'm sure you've been busy lately scanning for negative reactions of certain targeted posters during your extended diatribe against current and former posters. And I'm the paranoid one? You're the one behind the curtain pushing the buttons and being unnecessarily voyeuristic. Apparently you can't help yourself.

Even turd realizes he's STUCK with you....and so's the site. Keep doing what you're doing on here (unnecessarily picking scabs in order to make yourself look better at anyone's expense) and you'll finish the site off just like a slow, silent poison is prone to do.

One last thing....when you have nothing good to say and feel the need to preen your "intellect" or opinion on here you might consider just to STFU. That would probably be your best contribution on here or behind the scene's.

Otherwise, continue on with your spying and looking for enemies. Your "DPH is paranoid" claim couldn't be further from the truth and is nothing more then a needless projection you can't help but engage in to rehabilitate your image on here.

You're sooooo misunderstood....and transparent at this point that it's sad yet sick.

This whole diatribe is meaningless to me overall but watching the Spy Queen implode and run at the mouth just begged for a comment that injected some truth into your allegations.

Explain your need to spy into private conversations and then try to explain how others are to blame. Look inward.

Mudsharkbytes ¤
May 20, 2014 - 10:25am

Huh?

I can only assume you are the former DPH with a new handle that looks like an icon of a sphincter.

I have been utterly oblivious to the drama that has apparently been unfolding here, and I'd like to keep it that way. Seems to me these are complaints that are better addressed with PMs, unless it's the intent to air dirty laundry.

Mudsharkbytes ¤
May 20, 2014 - 10:26am

Duh?

Dumb double post.

ancientmoney
May 20, 2014 - 10:39am

Somebody give me a hat tip . . .

I feel uncomfortable stuck on 666.

SaratogaPrepper ancientmoney
May 20, 2014 - 10:51am

Got ya covered

a terrible number

SaratogaPrepper
May 20, 2014 - 11:01am

Nope

Waning Gibbous

flyinkel
May 20, 2014 - 11:13am

Um

Is is a full moon tonight?

GL I had no idea you posted before me. Your line was an "edit". So much for the "waiting in the wings" diatribe. Don't let the truth interfere with any random accusations you might want to create and share.

Lavender is very soothing.

metalsbyamile
May 20, 2014 - 11:15am

ancientmoney

We are on it. You are too smart to be tattooed with that beastly number

Mr. Fix
May 20, 2014 - 11:26am

Re, to Green Lantern, explanation of “this time it's different"

You can find it on the next thread, I decided to move it.

Bollocks
May 20, 2014 - 11:30am
ancientmoney
May 20, 2014 - 1:11pm

Looks like I'm stuck at 666 no matter what . . .

This is NOT a good sign . . .

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