Whistling Past The Graveyard

103
Fri, Apr 25, 2014 - 10:39am

As the world draws closer to a Currency War and The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment, the depth and breadth of "Western" arrogant stupidity is astonishing.

How long have we been talking about this now? At least since early February. The Western "leaders" like Woody and Cameron foolishly think that they hold all the cards. They are either unable or unwilling to understand and accept the FACT that dollar hegemony is a temporary (and fading) condition. Instead, they flaunt, preen and posture as if they are in charge. What fools!

Yesterday, we got word that Woody has new sanctions "teed up". (And this passes for diplomatic speech in the 21st century?) Then today, the lapdog US ratings agency Standard & Poors, decided to downgrade Russian debt to BBB-, just one single notch above junk status. (And, yes "lapdog" is the correct term. They tried to be independent by downgrading the US in 2011 and they're punishment was swift: https://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-16/5-billion-u-dot-s-dot-f...)

These Western fools are truly whistling past the graveyard. There are those who think that it's impossible for Woody and Dave to be this clueless and it's believed by some that they are doing all of this on purpose. Maybe. History is replete with false flags and baited attacks. In this instance, though, I really think that they are this clueless. What in Woody's educational and professional background would lead you to think that he understands the perilous state of the Keynesian Experiment. He's an academic and a lawyer. He's not trained in macro-economics and I don't think he's much of a student of history, either. Therefore, he very likely believes that each new tomorrow will always be just like yesterday. America is the dominant superpower with the world's reserve currency. How could that ever change?

Well it's going to change eventually...and...on this current course, it may change pretty quick. In response to these latest threats and downgrades, we heard again today from Putin adviser Sergei Glazyev. You remember him, don't you? Back in March, Mr. Glazyev publicly mentioned the "unthinkable"...that Russia should dump its $200B in treasuries should economic sanctions be applied: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-04/putin-advisor-threatens-dumpin...

Today, Mr. Glazyev took it a few steps further, proposing a plan of 15 measures "to protect the Russian economy" in the case of US sanctions. Among them:

  • Russia should withdraw all assets, accounts in dollars, euros from NATO countries to neutral ones
  • Russia should start selling NATO member sovereign bonds before Russia’s foreign-currency accounts are frozen
  • The Russian central bank should reduce dollar assets, sell sovereign bonds of countries that support sanctions
  • Russia should limit commercial banks’ FX assets to prevent speculation on ruble, capital outflows
  • The central bank should increase money supply so that state companies and banks may refinance foreign loans
  • Russia should use national currencies in trade with customs Union members, other non-dollar, non-euro partners

Now, this is just a "proposed plan" and "a Russian doesn't take a dump, son, without a plan". Regardless, you can clearly see where this is all headed. Maybe not by later today but perhaps as soon as next week, should hostilities in East Ukraine boil over into all-out war and invasion. And do you seriously not think that an invasion is likely at this point?

And don't forget this very important piece of the puzzle. Putin is going to China next month to ink the "holy grail" of energy partnerships. He's also working on a deal with India. Hmmmm...let's think about this....Russia, India, China...that's the "RIC" of the term "BRIC". And what do we know about the BRIC nations, their relationship with the G-whatever and the BRIC Development Bank?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/petrodollar-alert-isolated-wes...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-09/russia-and-china-about-sign-ho...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-25/first-russia-locks-china-holy-...

Look, seriously, if you can't see this coming, then you might be beyond my help. There is NO DOUBT and I am 100% CONVINCED that the world is heading in this direction. Whether or not the Ukraine Crisis and Woody's sanctions speed up the process, it's still happening. It's only a matter of WHEN.

Again, WHEN this happens, the trillions of dollars that have been printed and shipped overseas will be returning to America's shores. The dollar will sharply decline, maybe even collapse, in the process dragging down every other Western fiat currency. It's going to be ugly and disorderly and the likelihood of civil unrest, war and insurrection is high. You can prepare for these events by taking a number of actions today. This site is full of helpful individuals who can give you advice on everything from food storage to ammunition. Ask questions and you will receive answers.

As this applies to your personal finances, this is why we stack. In their desperation to maintain the status quo, the central and bullion bankers have driven the price of gold to just $1300/ounce by using a seemingly endless supply of paper metal, backed only with leased and rehypothecated (borrowed) gold. This system, which has held for over 30 years, is now crumbling before your eyes. Therefore, it is time once again to do an inventory check. Do you have enough physical gold? Calculate the amount of "paper wealth" you have, make your best estimate of what you think the true dollar-conversion value of gold should/will be, then determine how much you should have. For example:

  • If you have $200,000 in "net worth" and you think that the ultimate value of gold is $10,000, then you need at least 20 ounces of physical gold in your possession, be it in your safe or in a vault.
  • If you have $500,000 in "net worth" and you think that $5,000 is the ultimate value of gold, then you need at least 100 ounces of physical gold in your possession, be it in your safe or in a vault.

Now is not the time for weak-kneed fear and indecision. The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment is, most certainly, upon us. The only question is the amount of time remaining. It could be one week. It could be five years. Regardless, prepare accordingly.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  103 Comments


Apr 25, 2014 - 12:03pm

More brilliance

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-25/treasury-secretary-lew-warns-m...

  • *LEW SAYS RUSSIA NEEDS TO 'TAKE A STEP BACK'
  • *LEW: U.S., ALLIES WORKING TO ENSURE RUSSIANS 'PAY THE PRICE'
  • *LEW SAYS U.S. PREPARED TO ACT IF RUSSIA DOESN'T STEP BACK
  • *LEW DECLINES TO COMMENT ON CONTENT OF POSSIBLE SANCTIONS

  • Apr 25, 2014 - 12:05pm
    metalsbyamile
    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:06pm

    Its an opinion . RELAX

    Bullshit. Maybe,maybe not. You never know.We touched $1267 yesterday, who'd believe that 2 months ago.

    I disagree with the position but do not need to be venomous in response to it. But if you go first...........


    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:12pm

    Thanks to Coin Explorer for

    Thanks to Coin Explorer for posting this to the other thread. Reposting here. Amazing in that it's from Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/traders-bet-silver-streak-to-e...

    Strongsidejedi
    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:44pm

    Jack Lew's comments

    Those are interesting comments coming from Jack Lew.

    It sounds like Lew is concerned about Russian comments and fears BRIC divestment from UST's.

    A simple review of his TIC ledger should inform him that he doesn't need BRIC investment...right? Those falling bond yields this morning is just coming from normal UST buying in Belgium at $2 billion a day... which is normal right? (yes, sarc is on)

    Meanwhile, the media is talking about Ronald McDonald changing clothes.

    realitybiter
    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:48pm

    If financially this is

    TEOTGKE

    can we shine some light on the fact that politically, the last 20 years or so have been 

    TGNCE (the great neocon experiment)

    and when this shit blows up - entirely, we can dump ALL the blame on the neocons. This and has been their playbook. Woody is all the same. There are some differences between W and Obama, but not much. It was Cheney, after all who said, and I quote, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter" stated in 2002.....

    like Pets.com proved that profits don't matter - or John Law.....or, or, or...... My point is that just like we need to blame Keynes and the freaks that drink his kool-aid for the economic mess, we need to blame the neocons for our political, which are becoming economic messes....

    TEOTGNCE

    (the end of the great neo con experiment) cannot come soon enough.....they have destroyed the GOP, the nation, and the world...

    Cheney is an idiot..you need no more proof than the disaster Iraq became and the current interest load the deficits, now debts, have created......in fairness, I am a bigger idiot for voting for him not just once....

    Cheney had five draft dodging deferments in the 60's and 22 vets commit suicide a day. Great human being....He is the embodiment of death of humanity and the nation.

    TEOTGNCE

    realitybiter
    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:52pm

    It seems like all the US has done

    Is moved up the timeframe of TEOTGKE.....we provoke Russia into these moves. Either they have a plan, or they miscalculated. (that plan might be, deficits don't matter and we are simply boxing in those pesky Russians...cuz what we really want is an excuse to write our final chapter, attack Iran -----with no economic consideration whatsoever) Seeing how the arrogance of TPTB has no bounds, I'd lean towards the latter....

    Clarki Stomias
    Apr 25, 2014 - 12:57pm

    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:03pm

    Another look at The Long Bond

    And the June contract is looking to print its first close above 135 in quite a while.

    murphy
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:03pm

    @ Levon

    I think she's cute too. One thing about gold bug girls... I bet they like gold bug guys. Not sure any of us can measure up to Ned.

    Jan Skoyles

    Jan Skoyles
    Head of Research

    Jan is Head of Research at The Real Asset Company and was inspired to work in the gold and silver investment markets after working with fund manager Ned Naylor-Leyland, at Cheviot Asset Management. After working with Ned in 2010 Jan wrote her dissertation on the use of precious metals in the monetary system, and graduated with first class honours from Aston University in 2011.

    @ TF- I've got a sneaky suspicion that they have more than a professional relationship. Especially since she so matter of fact mentioned him in her opening with Max. If Ned is not married, I would like the question asked on the upcoming A2A.

    murphy
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:04pm

    Ole Edgar is very happily

    Ole Edgar is very happily married with two young children. 

    AGAU CPE
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:08pm

    Wtf **sitcom

    To things wrong with the question ---1st and Lady


    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:11pm

    Watch this one closely

    Fact that Ukrainian army officers were traveling with OSCE observers captured in Slavyansk bodes ill. This is trickier than freeing journos

    — Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) April 25, 2014
     
    The US Mission to the OSCE is a recent twitter follower of mine so I'm taking this a little more personally...
    murphy
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:12pm

    Edgar

    I was too at his agewink

    CPE
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:16pm

    Uhhhh, I'd say this is a big deal

    From GATA: Candian Bank CIBC starts selling real gold, not just paper

    Branch, online and mobile purchases may be made by CIBC clients and by those who currently bank elsewhere.

    Key features of CIBC's gold and silver service include:

    -- Secure online ordering 24 hours a day.

    -- Live market pricing.

    -- Branch and home delivery options.

    -- Bars and coins in various denominations, as well as collector and commemorative coins. ...

    https://www.preciousmetals.cibc.com/

    Wow

    Also, Alasdair Macleod updated his Fiat Quantity of Money index: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/fmq-update-and-valuing-gold?...

    Pick 52
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:17pm

    GOFO?

    Theres been some dispute here about which GOFO report is the correct / official one...and I don't remember which post that link is available in offhand

    Does anyone have today's rates ?


    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:20pm

    From Bill Holter:

     Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco report put out a beauty last night,
    it turns out that the U.S. exported 80 tons of gold in January. As you might guess, the bulk of it (57 tons) was sent to Hong Kong and then followed by the Swiss. WOW, 80 tons! A lot of gold right? Well yes but some perspective is needed to understand just how much this really is.
    Before going any further in the "perspective" department, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Germany and their "request" for THEIR OWN gold to be returned. They "requested" last year that 300 of their 1,500 tons be sent back from the N.Y. Fed... and only received 5 tons, but as Jeffrey Christian assures us...Germany isn't worried and "they don't really want their gold back". Really? Why then did they even ask for it? Was it some sort of joke? "Who" was the joke on? I'm no rocket scientist but if we actually did send 80 tons of gold overseas in the single month of January, could we not have sent the Germans "just a little" bit more...of THEIR gold back to them? 
    OK, for perspective what exactly does this 80 tons of exported gold in one month mean? The U.S. exported a total of 488 tons last year so 80 tons would represent more than 16% of last years total. If this were to become the new "run rate" for the next 12 months we would end up exporting nearly 1,000 tons! To be honest with you, I am not sure why these numbers are even published. I say this because allowing us "nut jobs" to see exports only gives us more dots to connect. Forget about Toto, this is like the Wizard pulling the curtain back all by himself!
    We can look at past exports and compare them to current exports but this is like comparing one car that's doing 50 mph versus this year's model doing 100 mph... in a 25 mph zone. The mines collectively in the U.S. only produce 240 tons of gold per year so this is THE "perspective" to look at. How can we be exporting more gold than we actually produce? Where is it coming from? As I've been harping on for several months now, "it has to come from somewhere, right?".
    There are of course other questions that need to be asked (rest assured that they will not be "officially" answered). Questions as simple as "why"? Why are we exporting more than we produce? What are we getting in return? Are we getting "dollars"? This would be really dumb as we can (and have) printed bazillions of these and done it for free...why would we need more of them? Are we getting oil in return? If this were the case then "shooting oneself in the other foot" would come to mind as "oil for gold" is taboo and several "rulers" have even lost their lives for even having this thought.
    I'm not going to play dumb here and keep asking a bunch of questions to get you to think, no, I'll give you the answer flat out. We are sending gold (and lots of it) mainly to China because if we don't...they will pull the plug on our financial system. I have written to you all along that once the flow of gold to China stops...they will view it as a default. China will not pull the plug as long as we continue to send gold because they want as much as they can get ...but more importantly they want to know that "we are out"...completely.
    On several occasions I have written about the Russian gold that was hitting the world markets back in 1989 and 1990. The bars that were surfacing had the "Czar's stamp" on them which meant they were fabricated before 1917. This was an absolute tell that the Soviet Union was at the very bottom of their gold barrel. They were forced to sell the last of their gold, gold which had been fabricated at least 70 years prior. I mention this because James Turk My Blog told us last Tuesday that U.S. gold with fabrication dates going back to the 1960's has recently been turning up on global markets. Why? Why now? Connect your own dots if you'd like but to me this says that we are digging pretty deep into the pile to make delivery. I will remind you that the Soviet Union broke apart roughly 6 months after the "Czar bars" started to turn up.
    Back to the 80 tons worth of exports in Jan. and 488 tons for all of last year. These numbers are far more than we produce. If you add in the 500 tons that GLD bled out last year we get a total of 750 "extra" tons that hit the market. When you add in the other side of the ledger, "imports", we know where much if not ALL of this gold went to. It went to China and it came from the U.S. with 5 total tons falling off the plane in Germany. 
    This really is big news folks. It is news that tells you something as to timing. "Timing" as in "soon" because the U.S. consumes ALL 240 tons that is mined +++ for jewelry and mintage which means that all (488+80=) 568 tons had to come from somewhere over the last 13 months. It also means that our "hoard" got 568 tons "lighter" over the last 13 months. This represents 7% of what he have "said we have" for the last nearly 70 years...in just 13 MONTHS! You can of course ask questions like how long have we been exporting more than production? How much has the leakage been? Please keep in mind that GOFO rates are in a backwardation that theoretically cannot happen. We are almost negative all the way out to one year now. This is a phenomenon that had almost never ever happened before last year and now we are in our 4th or 5th bout of backwardation. This simply tells you that the gold market is in fact tight...which is why the GLD bleed and our growing exports of gold... It's all about "perception" now and getting the markets open for tomorrow. Watch how fast the world will change once gold is no longer delivered.
    Do you now understand why there has been no audit of our gold reserve since the 1950's? It's OK, everyone knows that everyone knows...and it's been this way for a while but it sure was one hell of a party wasn't it? Regards, Bill Holter
    CPE Pick 52
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:20pm

    RE: GOFO

    https://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics

    1 month -0.110

    2month -0.066

    3 month -0.044

    6 month -0.002

    12 month 0.060

    Pick 52
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:22pm

    GOFO rates are now found

    GOFO rates are now found here: https://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics

    Still updated daily. Click the tab "table". For today, the 1-mo fell back to -0.110% from -0.098% yesterday. The 6-mo is now negative again, too.


    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:25pm
    Pick 52
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:32pm

    Thank you both

    Thanks CPE n TF...looking fwd to this Globex action today and the new COT


    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:40pm

    OSCE Observers

    Tweets about these guys seem to indicate they are the military observers that got fired upon back in Crimea when they tried to cross the border several weeks ago. If so, then they probably do, in fact, have Ukrainian military officers with them.

    Either way, Admiral Painter's words from Red October keep playing in my mind. "This is going to get out of control...."

    Pick 52 TF
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:44pm

    Ruppert on Fukushima

    Turd, this is a sobering look at Fukushima from Michael Ruppert a few months before his death, a must see for all imo , especially in light of that new link you just posted

    Again, WELL worth at least the first half of the short video:

    https://www.vice.com/vice-special/apocalypse-man-part-5

    SilverSurfers
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:52pm

    I dont

    And do you seriously not think that an invasion is likely at this point?

    highly improbable actually, who knows, could be right .... Sure, allot of screeching, but that is what politicians do. Suppose Russia forceably annexes easter uke, leaving what, one pisst off residual, anti Russian, on Moscow's door step. Crimea sea port, annexation, most here think that is just peachie, others dont. But the monetary push back would be huge, and may mess up china's time table. I dont think Raz has the balls either, not just yet anyway, not until china get enough gold, and they make the move, and they may be close, but not just yet. Reset the metals, then hey hey, it rock and roll on forex desks. So, Raz wont move until gold is multiple higher ... dingle lingle ling ..... drazyuviecha Xi, seachest seachest pazohlista ..... Nyet, malla eeshu chas ....

    brolgaboy
    Apr 25, 2014 - 1:55pm

    easy guys

    Jan has Hilary legs.

    CPE
    Apr 25, 2014 - 2:07pm

    Mr. Fellon on a silver coin?

    From that CIBC Bank gold site: https://www.preciousmetals.cibc.com/

    Looks just like Mr. Janet Fellon got her own coin, get to work you ole' hag!

    metalsbyamile
    Apr 25, 2014 - 2:09pm

    TF I have never heard or seen anyone do that

    I love the formula you have used to keep and restore one's wealth. Perhaps others have said it but i have never seen a formula to stack vs assets.

    Again i love it, and by a total fluke it looks to me as if i'm in the target zone according to how you have laid it out.

    One question-How do you see silver from the perspective you have laid out ratio wise?

    Therefore, it is time once again to do an inventory check. Do you have enough physical gold? Calculate the amount of "paper wealth" you have, make your best estimate of what you think the true dollar-conversion value of gold should/will be, and then determine how much you should have. For example:

    • If you have $200,000 in "net worth" and you think that the ultimate value of gold is $10,000, then you need at least 20 ounces of physical gold in your possession, be it in your safe or in a vault.
    • If you have $500,000 in "net worth" and you think that $5,000 is the ultimate value of gold, then you need at least 100 ounces of physical gold in your possession, be it in your safe or in a vault.

    Now is not the time for weak-kneed fear and indecision. The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment is, most certainly, upon us. The only question is the amount of time remaining. It could be one week. It could be five years. Regardless, prepare accordingly.

    ggnewmex
    Apr 25, 2014 - 2:15pm

    Holter

    WOW, he really nails it is a concise manner. Sure, we have all known this, but to see him lay the dots out in an orderly fashion makes me think.........

    WOW

    Coin Explorer
    Apr 25, 2014 - 2:19pm

    So Turd,

    What you're saying is, that you're waiting impatiently for your corn to...

    pop?

    brolgaboy
    Apr 25, 2014 - 2:28pm

    Turd,

    prediction Dow on close? ya think ppt will save the day?

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