Miner Limbo: “How low can you go?”

Mon, Dec 9, 2013 - 9:50am

I have to apologize to some of you poor, tortured souls right up front for the topic of this post. I am genuinely sorry. I understand that for many, the mere mention of the word “miners” will immediately trigger some form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Maybe the blood pressure will rise and the jaw will clench, or perhaps you may instantly develop an uncontrollable facial tick, like Chief Inspector Dreyfuss whenever someone mentions the name Clouseau.


Are you twitching? Nobody would blame you. We know you have been to the 4th circle of hell, broken through support there, and kept dropping into the 6th circle. We know that you refer to the mining stock table on your computer as “The Red Sea”. Even self-medicating doesn’t help much, because that bottle of scotch seems comforting at first but then it reminds you that liquor companies are up 41% over the last two years. For that matter, pretty much EVERYTHING is up 41% in the last two years. Dog poop is probably up 41% in the last two years.

So I tell you with complete sincerity that you have my deepest sympathies, and I am truly sorry for what you have been through. You deserved better, and instead you got one of the most bizarre devaluations any of us have ever seen.

That said, I want today to discuss a possible scenario that I have considered, and I believe it may be worthwhile for us to think it through. Please understand I am not saying or predicting this is going to happen, only that it is possible and I want to be ready if it does.

The three-part hypothesis of this post is very simple:

1. Miners have been absolutely slaughtered, diverging tremendously from the overall stock market

2. Stocks in general are overbought and may be poised for a significant correction

3. If this happens, it could take miners to truly insane lows. I want to be ready.


Part 1: The divergence of miners from the broader market.

GDX plotted against the S&P for the last 2 years. Feel free to self-medicate.



Part 2: Potential for a major correction in stocks

Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management published a recent article noting multiple variations of a stock metric he likes to follow that was developed by Professor Robert Schiller, called Cyclically Adjusted P/E or CAPE (link) Anything over 15 is overvalued relative to historical averages, and we are now at 24.6. The short version is, in the last hundred years or so whenever CAPE was above 24 this indicated an extreme level of overvaluation, and each time (1903, 1929, 1966, 2000, and 2007) a severe market correction between 30-80% followed… and we just crossed above this level again:


Part 3: If the market sells off, how low can the miners go?

It is possible, of course, that even in a market correction, the already low share price of miners relative to the value of the underlying assets would insulate them from the effects of a sell-off, and miners would largely outperform the broader market.

HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHAAA!!!!! Whooo-boy, that was a hoot, wasn’t it? Mining shares being bought and sold based on the underlying value of the assets and companies? God, I kill myself with this stuff.

Anyway, suffice it to say that if history is any guide, the miners will be beaten like a rented mule if we see a major market correction. Oh, they might go down somewhat less than the overall market (say, a 20% drop while the market as a whole is down 30%), but it seems likely that they will be sold off with everything else. And given how insanely low they already are, it is possible- just possible – that we could witness some of the greatest deals any of us will ever see in our lifetimes. So I wanted to begin researching and do some due diligence, so that I could be ready to pounce and know what it is that I’m hunting for, in case this scenario plays out.

Valuations: Making a list, checking it twice

I have the great good fortune to have a Turdite friend by the name of Steven B. Horse, and SBH…well, let’s just say he trades a little bit. I ran this idea past him, and asked about several ideas including screening companies based on Price to Book value, and he very generously sent me back the following tables. In them, he screened for gold and silver miners whose current price to book value is ALREADY below 1. Now please note that this is by no means a perfect metric, and that there are many others you could look at. This is simply meant as a starting point to generate discussion and in the context of this post, gives us a view of just how crazy some of these stock prices would be if you lopped-off another ten or twenty percent in a market correction. Perhaps generous Turdites can come up with other metrics and lists of potential buys in the comments section of this post. Please note that SBH also included Price to Cash on the right-hand side of the chart, a fascinating addition to the table. Here is what he wrote to me about this exercise:

Mining stocks are trading at valuations that are silly. You will have the contingent of people who will disavow miners for various reasons, but there are plenty of people that will be interested in a list like this. Here is a screener that I ran for gold/silver miners with Price to Book <1. P/B is a decent metric. You will invariably get arguments from people that P/B isn't "the best" metric to use. I would say, however, that it's useful and is one of many that you can use to value a company. Price to Cash on the other hand is hard to argue with. With SSRI for example, you are buying a company today that has cash and securities valued at $6.74 per share for the price of $6.00 per share. So you are getting all the assets (plant, property, equipment, inventory, reserves, intangibles) for free.

Gold Miners Screener PB < 1

Ticker Market Cap ($MM) P/E P/B P/Cash

VGZ $ 27.81 0.55 0.89

EGI $ 46.95 0.94 0.9

AKG $ 169.25 0.73 0.91

RIC $ 40.39 0.37 1.6

GSS $ 114.00 0.52 1.71

THM $ 36.29 0.63 1.81

ANV $ 321.60 8.8 0.41 2.06

RBY $ 250.98 0.58 2.1

IAG $ 1,510.17 10.55 0.41 2.74

SBGL $ 666.95 11.49 0.83 3.24

BAA $ 150.13 21 0.3 3.48

NGD $ 2,332.86 11.78 0.81 4.15

KGC $ 5,149.07 0.77 4.43

EGO $ 3,947.01 21.23 0.67 5.29

HMY $ 1,129.09 0.35 5.4

AUQ $ 879.79 0.46 6.28

GFI $ 2,788.77 47.37 0.66 6.3

BRD $ 136.63 6.56 0.56 6.44


Silver Miners Screener PB < 1

Ticker Market Cap ($MM) P/E P/B P/Cash

SSRI $ 474.03 0.56 0.87

HL $ 825.70 0.62 2.79

PAAS $ 1,526.20 0.61 3.47

SVM $ 413.29 16.13 0.98 3.69

CDE $ 1,049.10 0.46 4.96

EXK $ 341.01 12.67 0.97 10.24

Importantly, my friend also wrote: I would certainly note in bold italics all caps that this is just a screener, do you own due diligence. I would only add that disclaimer because people on the internet are _______s and most can't/won't do any research. Then they will come back and talk shit, b/c they are ______s.

You heard the man. Do your own research. And no whining.

So to sum this up, I am keeping a close eye on Price to Book and Price to Cash in the case of a major market correction. It seems almost impossible that SSRI, for example, could fall another 15 or 20% but who knows what these insane markets are capable of? If we see a company with 6.74$ per share in cash on hand, going for five bucks a share, well… I’m taking the free money and the free company that goes along with it. I may well do something similar for a number of companies listed on this screen. In short, I am making my list and checking it twice. Of course none of this may come about. The rising QE vapors, directional algos, and Permanent Open Market Operations cash may simply continue to magically levitate this market to infinity, CAPE be damned. But if they don’t, and we see the kind of pull-back historically associated with markets at these overbought levels… well, I want to be waiting in the weeds. Just to see what comes along.

Happy hunting, friends.

About the Author


Dec 9, 2013 - 4:25pm

The Deviant Investor writes a lot like . . .

Jim Willie. His message, which we here know all too well, is also similar to Willies, though on a broader canvas.


Dec 9, 2013 - 4:42pm

A snippet from Alisdair Macleod's latest article . . .

"We can begin to see how our jigsaw puzzle might complete. But there is an extra piece for which there is no place, and that is the dollar. It is simply becoming surplus to requirements; and here again China has America cornered. After concluding her alliances with the Middle East she will control directly and indirectly almost all the world’s above-ground stocks of gold, which in the final analysis is more powerful than any fiat currency, reserve status or not.

One can only speculate about how much of this is self-inflicted by the Americans. Was it her overt imperialism that undermined her, or is it the Fed’s monetary policy? I also remember Alan Greenspan’s undiplomatic remarks over China’s stock of US Treasuries, when he pointed out that they had the problem, not America.

That is for post-event analysis, but for now Western markets seem to be unaware of these important developments, leaving the dollar/gold pair more mispriced than perhaps at any point in history. Physical gold is being cornered, leaving Western capital markets operating as little more than casinos backed only by hot air. The dollar will one day be a bit-player in international trade, meaning that enormous quantities are becoming redundant and will have to be sold for something else.

After the inevitable upwards explosion in the dollar price of gold, we shall be left wondering at what price we will need to offer our goods and services to get some of it back from Asia."


Sorry if this link has been posted already--don't want to run afoul of copyright laws.

Dec 9, 2013 - 6:44pm

Catch 44

When gold is selling for $1,250, it is not really worth confiscation by the filthy thieves in the white house. Especially considering the dollar's true value and the cost of coffins and death benefits for the government goons that would experience sudden "lifespan adjustment".

However, at $50,000 a pop, confiscation becomes a really good idea in the empty mind of a D.C. scurrilous bastard-rat.


Moral : If you must shoot a thieving rat fed-goon to protect what's yours, always shoot burst of three (triple tap) and always aim at the legs.

Dec 9, 2013 - 7:10pm

Anyone noticed...

that the western political leaders have all invited themselves along to Nelson Mandela's funeral?

I'm sure his last wishes were along the lines of:


Looks like the letter never got delivered. NSA-intercepted, no doubt.

Dec 9, 2013 - 7:12pm


I bet every one of those "scumbag bastards" feels deeply that they alone were responsible for Mandela's greatness. Such is the nature of megalomaniacs.

Dec 9, 2013 - 7:16pm


Absolutely. They're doing god's work.

Dec 9, 2013 - 7:18pm

Kitco Update

While in the dentist's chair today I saw on the BNN scroll that "Quebec Government prosecuting Kitco and 11 other companies for sales tax fraud". Just confirmed exact wording with Mrs. Z but there was no accompanying story on their website.

There are no new updates at Richter and Associates (trustees in bankruptcy) page.


Edit: There is a story on "The Province" (found with google search "Kitco sales tax fraud") regarding this. I seem to be unable to paste links into my comment box. Feel free to follow up this with a link post if you can.

Dec 9, 2013 - 7:29pm

Well at least Oprah and Bono are going...

I was worried sick they might not make it.

"Notable absentees include Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who cited high travel and security costs, and Mandela's fellow Nobel peace laureate, the Dalai Lama, who since 2009 has twice been denied a visa for South Africa.

Oprah Winfrey and singer-activist Bono are among several celebrity guests expected to attend."


It's going to be a day of probably the most extreme hypocrisy ever seen in the history of the world.

Dec 9, 2013 - 8:01pm

I would urge Americans to

I would urge Americans to watch this video. Very important regarding the future and entitlements.

No Free Lunches - Seniors Benefit at the Expense of Our Kids: Stan Druckenmiller at TEDxWallStreet

Some snippets for those who can't watch for whatever reason

As of now we are creating, because of the gray boom, 8,000 new seniors every day. By 2029, we’ll be creating 11,000 new seniors a day. So, in order to fund them in balance, you'd want to be creating 8,000 new young adult workers a day. How many adult workers do you think we're creating a day? 2,000. So we've got 8,000 new dependents every day on the entitlement rolls and only 2,000 kids -- I'm sorry, young adult workers -- to fund them. If that doesn't spell unsustainability, I really don't know what does.....................................

So, it's pretty simple. If you take current benefits promised plus the fact that you're creating so many new seniors versus workers plus expected tax revenues, the numbers just don't add up. Well, actually they do. They add up to a $200 trillion burden on the next generation. ...............

But there is one thing I want to say. I totally disagree with those that say we can wait 20 years to solve this problem. And there's two reasons. The first reason is if you wait 20 years to solve this problem, by the time you're at that time period, the interest payments on the debt alone will start to challenge the entitlements as a problem...........................

One solution would be to raise the payroll tax from 12 to 15 percent now, and you're done. Another possible solution would be to raise the payroll tax in 20 years, but then you'd have to raise it to 16 percent.

So I ask you, is it fair that I and the other boomers get to pay 12 percent through our working career, but these kids who are starting their working career in 2033 have to pay 16 percent? It's ridiculous, and it's wrong.

Please, let's stop kicking the can down the road. None of us want the poverty rate for the elderly to go back up to 30 percent before our kids and our grandkids are seniors.

Dec 9, 2013 - 8:10pm

Much longer read with video

Much longer read with video accompanying but worth the read if you have time either now or later.


A lot of attention was paid last week to the IMF conference presentation by Larry Summers that bemoaned the stagnating state of a global economy stuck in a zero-bound liquidity trap. Paul Krugman joined in the mournful dirge and others followed. But little notice was taken of a talk by Ken Rogoff which preceded Summers and was quite the opposite to the former Treasury Secretary's description of conundrum; Rogoff was very forward looking and discussed a framework for solution to many of the problems we have faced, are facing and will face in the future...................

....................................So, when Ben Bernanke fired up his helicopter engines he took the only path available to him to create additional debt-free money by replacing interest-bearing government debt with newly created bank reserves. The government debt thus added to the Fed balance sheet resulted in the interest paid by the U.S. Treasury being returned to the government. The result? Debt-free money, in effect, minus a service charge largely composed of a 0.25% interest payment to banks for excess reserves held by the Fed.

The problem with the Bernanke path? The helicopters dropped all the money into a hole in the ground (excess reserve accounts) and very little made its way into the economy. It was essentially a rearrangement of the balance sheets of the creditor nation with little impact on the debtor nation.

Now enter Rogoff opening a new can of worms. The possibilities for the worms that have come out of the can Rogoff opened include:

  • A pathway is open for investment banking and depository banking to be separated from each other. It is a pathway to a banking and monetary structure analogous to that under Glass-Steagall.
  • If depository banking and base money creation is under the control of the Fed without direct linkage to speculative credit creation by private banking, systemically important financial institutions (SIFI aka TBTF - too big to fail) cease to exit. There may be behemoth banks but they can fail without destroying the general payment system of the economy.
  • The operation of the Fed as a true public bank and repository for all federal banking transactions.
  • The operation of the bank in the mode of a postal savings system for the general populace.
  • The operation of a countercyclical monetary policy in the real economy becomes a simply operated and transparent mechanism.
Dec 9, 2013 - 8:12pm

Santa's latest conference notes

lifted from today's cafe.

A report on Jim Sinclair’s latest, in Boston…

Dan's notes from Marriott room of about 250 near MIT - December 7, 2013

Gold Arbitrage

Discussion based on logic and historical precedence. Big discussion item was current gold arbitrage situation: gold going from west to east where gold is savings, investment, a bargain, and government policy.

Jim's job is screwing up the manipulation. It will become too expensive

The bull in volume there will become a bull in price

$2,200-2,400 then 3,200-3,500 before free gold; then game is wide open, then reset (see below - valuation of currencies according to assets / liabilities / gold reserves to influence value, not convertibility). 1,100 marks gold bottom, where China angered over India getting 200 ton IMF gold

Six physical exchanges now including Singapore, Hong Kong (each with China support. Their warehouses constantly being drawn down to arbitrage opportunity. 3 days for payment.

Futures market depend on some semblance to physical market. Exchanges used to have 4 layers of guarantee - customer, broker-dealer, clearing house and members / board of directors. Not since exchanges went public. Now has been 7 clearing house failures - least amount of capital and enormous obligations

COMEX bars went to Rand Refinery. Exchanges worse off than 1980. Won't survive arbitrage without change in contract, cash settlement. That reduces international viability. Gold emancipation is predictable

1980 - Hunts weren't planning to take delivery. But Bunker Hunt, not a detail guy like Nelson, didn't pay any attention to first and second and third notice day and exchanges freaked. $900 was my purely mathematical target then. Livermore's squares of the numbers (which works well with gold (for his "angels" and new issues over $12 for some reason)

Singapore most viable (no VAT) Sinclair chair / head advisory committee. Internet platform soon for physical market bids. 16 contributing banks to make gold manipulation prohibitively expensive

Dubai - amount of people at gold counter is huge - right at airport

Russian exchange is significant but only for Russian citizens - VAT tax

In Tanzania, helped set up bills market, gold legalization to reduce black market profits, keep capital in the country. Gold arbitrage will do same to manipulators

Signs like London looking at gold fix and DBS (and their shenanigans) getting out are that we are winning, getting closer. JPM favoritism questionable as getting hit with draconian fines and settlements, unlike Goldman which is doing same. COT people are ones who gave us LIBOR

Confiscation was QE of 1930s, not today's situation which is tax risk

Dollar, Hyper-liquidity, Reserve Currency and Reset Plans

Hyper-liquidity possible with low velocity. Velocity will increase either from loss of confidence or economic recovery (not happening). Will have Weimar in NYC at the great reset. No draining of the hyper-liquidity without return of asset risk)

QE to Infinity defined as .7000 on US Dollar Index that has a head and shoulders the size of this room. (Now around 80) ESF - Exchange Stabilization Fund will intervene at 79, 76, 72 and 70.

Below 70 is catastrophe, general loss of confidence. 56 is a target. Not all the currency swaps can hold it up

Watch the Dollar as the story

2016 is still a target event date. But could happen this week on an IMF announcement.

Not enough cash out there for derivative risk

Debt ceiling essentially removed, collapsing or to collapse debt values

China accumulation is sign of reset which is already agreed upon based on relative assets / debt (among BRICS). Extreme view but those in know say it could happen in 90 days. Will be a virtual currency, trading among central banks not us. 105 countries agree to reserve currency average


Have what you need. What is going to happen will happen sooner than Jim says, before a banking crisis.

A waiting game - hunker down. Debt pay downs to peace of mind

1/3 equities, 2/3rd physical might be good recognition of present conditions

Mining Shares

Broker Mike Martin in attendance will provide complimentary opinions on whether company to make it or not. michael[dot]martin[at]opco[dot]com

Want companies that have assets, (potential) production.

TRX (Tanzanian Royalty) projecting production ASAP - first half 2014, Buckreef heap leach. TRX cash is in Singapore as part of its GOTS (get out of the system). TRX can get out of Canada with one registered letter (to where incorporated in Alberta)

Barrick talking about hedging again - new CEO is Goldman pedigree


Performs better on upside than gold; know when to sell some. A nonmonetary metal in a monetary situation. Ask smart bus driver for an opinion not Jim

Someone asked about a palladium stock. He joked to get rhodium as most reflective metal for the laser shots reflection

Bail - in, Banking

At Cyprus, Dutch minister said it was a blueprint. 83% loss there could be 17% here. Bail-in could be part of a Fed test, at a stress test failure rather than at a bank failure

Have an invisible problem since FASB changed accounting standard from fair value to model value in March 2009. Money center financial statements are not properly representative - losses not recognized

Get out of System Items

Do to extent you can

Retirement Accounts - US $17 trillion in retirement accounts is an asset to nationalize like Poland, Russia, others to come

Privacy doesn't exist in system. Don't try

Social Implications, Other

Would rather be in rags than be one of those potential ultra-wealthy targets on Connecticut coast

Total dichotomy - world in conflict. People getting flushed (retirement assets, jobs, etc.)

Pensioner the endangered species

GEAB - Global European Anticipation Bulletin with scary projections

fofoa website with moon high gold predictions

FACTA law is soft currency control - draconian punishments for violators

Bitcoin allowed to live as virtual currency trial, as an average of currencies

Dec 9, 2013 - 8:20pm

Whoa, how's this for an idea

Whoa, how's this for an idea ? It's so crazy, it just might work !

Video unavailable

Open an account and have ATMs at the Fed to eliminate banks making profit (my interpretation)

About forty minutes into the final session of a recent research conference at the IMF, Ken Rogoff made the following remarks:

We have regulation about the government having monopoly over currency, but we allow these very close substitutes, we think it's good, but maybe... it's not so good, maybe we want to have a future where we all have an ATM at the Fed instead of intermediated through a bank... and if you want a better deal, you want more interest on your money, then you can buy what is basically a bond fund that may be very liquid, but you are not guaranteed that you're going to get paid back in full.

This is an idea that's long overdue. Allowing individuals to hold accounts at the Fed would result in a payments system that is insulated from banking crises. It would make deposit insurance completely unnecessary, thus removing a key subsidy that makes debt financing of asset positions so appealing to banks. There would be no need to impose higher capital requirements, since a fragile capital structure would result in a deposit drain. And there would be no need to require banks to offer cash mutual funds, since the accounts at the Fed would serve precisely this purpose.

But the greatest benefit of such a policy would lie elsewhere, in providing the Fed with a vastly superior monetary transmission mechanism. In a brief comment on Macroeconomic Resilience a few months ago, I proposed that an account be created at the Fed for every individual with a social security number, including minors. Any profits accruing to the Fed as a result of its open market operations could then be used to credit these accounts instead of being transferred to the Treasury. But these credits should not be immediately available for withdrawal: they should be released in increments if and when monetary easing is called for.



last one for now. Apologies for the info smash.

Dec 9, 2013 - 8:27pm

We are not crazy anymore! PTL

New studies: ‘Conspiracy theorists’ sane;
government dupes crazy, hostile

Is this building falling or exploding? If you say
"falling" you need to take your meds

by Kevin Barrett

Recent studies by psychologists and social scientists in the US and UK suggest that contrary to mainstream media stereotypes, those labeled "conspiracy theorists" appear to be saner than those who accept the official versions of contested events.

The most recent study was published on July 8th by psychologists Michael J. Wood and Karen M.

New studies: ‘Conspiracy theorists’ sane; government dupes crazy, hostile | Veterans Today 09/12/2013 09:40


Dec 9, 2013 - 8:34pm

Hudes Again Claiming 170k tonnes in BOH


This article was posted over at jsmineset. Interesting article about the Federal Reserve audit by the GAO. Funny thing is, there's one comment and it's from Karen. Her claim is just ridiculous concerning the BOH gold hoard.

From the comments section:

Demand for Federal Reserve Notes has declined precipitously. https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/usdollar1.pdf As I pointed out to General Dempsey during his town hall meeting, US national security and the US credit rating is adversely affected: "With the Federal Reserve Note weakening against other currencies, 25% of international trade no longer denominated in US dollars, and the US credit rating on the verge of being lowered by the new Universal Credit Rating Group, do you think it is time to accept the offer of the authorized signatory to the Global Collateral Account to release the uncut dollars issued by the US Treasury department and back them with the 170,500 metric tonnes of gold on deposit in the Bank of Hawaii?" https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/emdempsey.docx

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:07pm

Medicare Stan

is already under water, this whole bag of bankrupt gooberment tricks is dependent on one thing. It is the positive perception of the sheeple who are receiving some amount of financial benefit from goobers entitlement bag on a regular basis, when the positive perception vanishes, the music stops playing, its all coming apart at the seams and crashing into a huge pile of burning debris and chaos. It is not a matter of, can it happen?, it is only a matter of which spark that gives the tinder ignition and the conflagration begins, keep and prepare accordingly depending on your level of title or entitlement, the music is about to stop playing.

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:09pm


State surveillance of personal data is theft, say world's leading authors

More than 500 of the world's leading authors, including five Nobel prize winners, have condemned the scale of state surveillance revealed by the whistleblower Edward Snowden and warned that spy agencies are undermining democracy and must be curbed by a new international charter.

The signatories, who come from 81 different countries and include Margaret Atwood, Don DeLillo, Orham Pamuk, Günter Grass and Arundhati Roy, say the capacity of intelligence agencies to spy on millions of people's digital communications is turning everyone into potential suspects, with worrying implications for the way societies work

They have urged the United Nations to create an international bill of digital rights that would enshrine the protection of civil rights in the internet age.

More: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/10/surveillance-theft-worlds-...

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:16pm

Karen Hudes

has 170,000 tons of gold up her arse, more like .

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:25pm


"As of now we are creating, because of the gray boom, 8,000 new seniors every day. By 2029, we’ll be creating 11,000 new seniors a day. So, in order to fund them in balance, you'd want to be creating 8,000 new young adult workers a day. How many adult workers do you think we're creating a day? 2,000. So we've got 8,000 new dependents every day on the entitlement rolls and only 2,000 kids -- I'm sorry, young adult workers -- to fund them. If that doesn't spell unsustainability, I really don't know what does."


I will tell you exactly what this spells: P-O-N-Z-I

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:33pm

I prefer unsustainable but

I prefer unsustainable but each to his/her own :) And if it is a ponzi scheme, how on earth does one taper it ? There's a thought for the day.

Dec 9, 2013 - 9:55pm


I know some seniors who would be happy to just get back every penny taken from them, and allegedly put into the SSI "trust fund". No adjustments for inflation, just have the .gov send back every dime, and cut us loose. Same for medicare, too. Did you know if someone wants to opt out of Medicare after they've enrolled, they would automatically lose their SSI payments? Methinks there's a reason for that...an escape valve of some sort or another, to be implemented when necessary.

Dec 9, 2013 - 10:20pm

Yup, the name of the game has

Yup, the name of the game has been preservation of capital for quite some time now for us minions. As for seniors, they are actually way better off than the kids now who will become seniors in the future if the problem isn't addressed (see video I posted a few posts above).

here's an ft video on the enrolment mess and the current state of enrolment


Dec 9, 2013 - 10:30pm

Central banks lose $400bn in gold rout

Fall in gold price catches out central banks' fearful of repeating Gordon Brown's mistake of selling reserves at the bottom

Are central banks out of time repeating the mistakes of Gordon Brown who sold Britain's gold on the cheap at the bottom of the market

4:49PM GMT 09 Dec 2013

Central banks, fearful of repeating Gordon Brown's mistake of selling the nation's gold reserves at the bottom of the market, have been caught out by the slide in prices this year, with the value of the precious metal held in their vaults falling by $400bn (£244bn), according to the latest broker research.

The US Federal Reserve, which is one of the biggest holders of physical gold reserves, has been the biggest loser in the market says Banc De Binary, a binary options trading firm.

Based on the firm's calculations, the Fed has seen the value of its 8,134 tonnes of the yellow metal in places such as Fort Knox fall to $327bn, down from $433bn a year earlier.

The Bank of England has also suffered the firm said, with its holdings falling by $4bn in value since the beginning of the year to $12.5bn.

Banc De Binary said that the embarrassment caused by Gordon Brown's decision to sell off 395 tonnes of gold at what turned out to be the bottom of the market between 1999 and 2002 had made central bank's nervous to act during the current market slide.

“Gold prices have been on a downward trajectory since their peak in August 2011, after ten years of virtually uninterrupted growth. Unfortunately for the central banks that still have very large holdings in gold, knowing when to sell off a multi-billion-dollar gold reserve is an extremely difficult proposition, as Gordon Brown discovered to both his and the British taxpayer’s cost,” said Oren Laurent, chief executive of Banc De Binary.


Don't worry. The Chinese are happy to take it off your hands.

Dec 9, 2013 - 10:50pm

I went down a rabbit hole

“Operation Heavy Freedom and the truth about when much of the world’s gold was delivered into Indonesia and the Philippines.

Read Kerry’s book “Indonesian Gold”
President Soekarno, “Operation Heavy Freedom and the truth about when much of the world’s gold was delivered into Indonesia and the Philippines.

Background history:
1. Between 1927 and 1938, under arrangements made between T.V.Soong (Finance Minister of China) and Henry Morgethau, Secretary of the Treasury, The United States Government purchased some 50 million ounces of silver and leased vast amounts of gold from the Nationalist Chinese Government, known as Kuomintang. During this period China was partly occupied by Japanese troops and there was the fear of China being overrun by the Japanese.

2. For all the treasure handed in, certificates were given to those who surrendered their precious metals. The surrendered precious metals and gemstones were sent to the United States under a lease agreement made between T.V. Soong and Henry Morgenthau. The Certificates became the underlying funds of the Kuomintang and were good and accepted securities.

3. In 1934 a new Securities Act was promulgated in the United States, together with the Gold Act, which required all bullion gold and gold coin to be surrendered to the Federal Reserve, a private corporation chartered to operate as the Central Bank of the United States and to be the issuer of the currency known as the United States Dollar.

4. Domestically owned gold was purchased. Foreign Gold held by the Treasury was also surrendered to the Federal Reserve, so, was leased to the Federal Reserve. This began the series 1934 Notes issued by the Federal Reserve. These have never been redeemed and the interest cost was met by further issuances of the 1934 series FRN’s.

5. These 1934 FRN’s guarantee the lease payments and to allow the Chinese Government to continue financially. These came under the control of the Kuomintang, the Nationalist Government in China from whom the Gold had been received. Many were left in China when the Kuomintang had to flee to Taiwan. The Gold had been nationalized by the Kuomintang who moved much of the FRN’s (but not all) to Taiwan which was built on these notes. These Notes were the underlying wealth of Taiwan and they were good for value as they were backed by gold.

6. During the war in China, most owners of the depository notes issued by Chinese Banks were killed by the Japanese, others later being killed by both the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communists, thus the Gold became property of the Nation, especially so, the Kuomintang. In Europe, Jews who had owned wealth were stripped of that wealth through various means and were then eliminated. The gold was taken either by stealth or by force, that is a reality of history.

7. The Kuomintang appointed guardians of this Gold and the securities issued by the United States; they are euphemistically known as the Dragon Family. The Dragon Family is in fact an organization that operates between old families within China and Taiwan, and as such is above the political divide of the two independent Chinese Governments. Chinese are remarkable in this regard, that old family ties and functions supercede political arrangements which, though they might last for generations, are regarded as inconsequential over the passage of time to most Chinese. Attached to this is the wealth of several nations. The United States in support of the Kuomintang and resistance groups actually printed more of these FRN notes inside China itself. These operations were run by the CIA to buy loyalty of various factions in the fight against the communists, eventually being driven out into Burma around 1960. Largely due to the additional printing of these notes, the additional Notes were given in lieu of interest, but directed to specific persons and parties.

8 At the end of the World War II, with Communist and Kuomintang factions at war in China, the International Community and the Chinese assented to the Gold being placed under the overt control of Indonesian President Soekarno. Soekarno then, on August 17, 1945, came to be known as M1 under United Nations Approval No. MISA 81704 “Operation Heavy Freedom. This was because much of the world’s gold had been delivered into Indonesia and the Philippines. Canada, Australia, Great Britain, India and other British Colonies sent their gold to the so called “impregnable Singapore” The Japanese, as per the arrangements agreed to by Hirohito in the 1921 Pact Between Nations made in London, delivered much of this gold to Indonesia (Then a Dutch Colony) and to Philippines (Then a US Colony) into secret bunkers that had been mostly constructed by the Japanese between 1924 and 1945. This is why the Allied troops in Malaya had no air cover or sufficient supplies to that would have allowed them to resist the Japanese. Singapore had to fall so most of the global wealth could be “lost” into a secret system that made the gold standard redundant and fiat currencies a reality.

This gold was documented into accounts through the Swiss Commercial Bank Union Bank of Switzerland, placed under protection of the Swiss Attorney General, registered through the Swiss National Bank into the Bank for International Settlements International Collateral Combined accounts and then from within the BIS, blocked to form the Institutional Parent Registration Accounts of the Federal Reserve System.

Later President Marcos of the Philippines was appointed and held the position of M1 until 1987 and then the position was transferred to Dr. Ray C. Dam, in October of 1987, under Legal Decadency to Heir RCD1087 Far East Entire with formal Power of Attorney and Assignment of Indonesian Assets signed by Sarinah Soetiwi (holder of the assets on behalf of the Nation of Indonesia as assigned by President Soekarno) in 1992, Dam’s authority later promulgated January 20, 1995. Dam proved to be impossible for the entire system to work with, (either because he refused to allow those who placed him in authority to steal, or because of his personal arrogance…. Difficult to know which is correct) and his authority over the Institutional parent registration Accounts set aside and the system reverted to the three Nations who had controlled these accounts since World war II, United States, Great Britain and France, who systematically and illegally subverted the established system since 1996.

9. From this we can see that there are two functional operations. One was ownership and Depository control by the owners of the Gold and the other a control system set in place to administer and control the Collateral Combined Accounts as an independent Arbiter. Ownership rights are held by the signatory to the Depository Accounts in Commercial Banks and Control Rights have been held by M1.

10. So it was, that the entire world supply of bullion and coinage gold was withdrawn and fiat currencies became the order of the day. However, underneath the notes and money issued by the Federal Reserve was the underlying wealth within a centralized system that Nations was intended to be used equitably, but Bankers determined they would use to raid national economies.

11. In 1963, President John F. Kennedy entered into an Agreement with President Soekarno to provide the funds to allow the United States Treasury to print its own currency, thus subverting the “right” to print the currency held by the Federal Reserve. The Agreement would have transferred some 59,000 tons of gold to underpin this currency. The problem with this was that the US domestic currency would have then been backed by gold which would have been a violation of international agreements meant to stabilize currencies. 11 days after signing this agreement, President Kennedy was assassinated. President Johnson the suspended EO11110 as issued by Kennedy and transferred the bullion to the Federal Reserve. The Green Hilton Agreement was not implemented until 1968 when Soekarno fell from office and when Global Trade made it imperative that the world have a Global Currency. As the Gold had been transferred to the US Treasury in 1968, a series of Bonds known as Kennedy Bonds were issued in order to honor the terms of the Green Hilton Agreement made between Kennedy and Soekarno, the 1968 terms of the gold delivery to the United States being different than made in 1934. When after 30 years, interest had not been paid as promised, a reissue of the bonds in an increased number were issued as commemorative notes and were accepted by the owners of the Gold, the Dragon Family.

12. From copies of Bank documents received by Neil Keenan, within the Green Hilton Memorial Agreement, the funds the amounts of gold and platinum are specified. These amounts of gold are certificated and the certificates and ledger copies with full and exact identification and recognition codes are available. These certificates are further proven by the bank reports, copies of which are now held by Neil Keenan. The truth of these instruments can be vigorously defended through documentation in our hands and further through interrogation of the Black Screens where the off ledger collateral is held, together with an interrogation of the grey and blue screens where we will find enormous fraud from the illegal use of these assets.

13. In the few documents we present with this complaint we can see that the assets have been deposited, the counter-assets created and presented to the depositors, the depositors have been cheated for over 70 years through the intentional and fraudulent failure of the Obligor to honor the Agreements.

14. In recent weeks we have come into possession of the books and records of the late President Soekarno, and all the codes and ledgers of the Global Accounts. The size of these accounts can be seen by reviewing the Collective Agreement between the Garuda Memorial Hilton Indonesia and the Green Memorial Hilton Geneva, established, structured and made operational between 1961 and final signature in 1972. Under this Agreement the assets of the international collateral combined were established and brought forward, then, within a short period of time misused to change the operating systems of banks.

15. Reviewing these books, we can now see that Banks set aside the notion of operating under the Charters they hold as banks, instead of being Banks they became like very poor casino operators and traders, selling what they do not own. The records in our possession, signed and registered by the receiving and managing commercial bank, show the underlying funds in numbers and amounts that stagger the imagination. The Green Hilton and Garuda Memorial Agreements demonstrate clearly the value of the global account system.
a) Gold and Platinum Deposits ran into millions of tons.
b) 1934 series Federal Reserve System Bonds, Notes issued in 1928 , Kennedy Bonds ran into Quadrillions of US Dollars, Dragon Bonds are all recorded and acknowledged within the Green Hilton and Memorial Hilton Collective Agreements. Both Assets in the form of Bullion surrendered to the Global Accounts through the United States Government and then entrusted to a private corporation, the Federal Reserve System.
Dec 9, 2013 - 10:53pm

RE:I went down a rabbit hole

Ok, call me crazy but I think they planned on confiscating all the Gold from the people of earth and destroying all of the Silver, leaving only fiat money!

Dec 9, 2013 - 11:08pm

Great TA

Submitted by EWT:

We are not a source for or fans of endless statistics, like the number of ounces
purchased from one period over another, how many ounces are available at the
Comex, how many ounces have been mined, the demand for v the production of
silver, etc, etc, etc. Too boring.

It may satisfy many to know this information, but we are more interested in what
translates into results, where can a market turn be determined, where price is likely
to go, etc, etc, etc? This is where the challenge lies, for it comes down to timing in
order to enter or exit a market, seeking profit opportunity in the process.

Knowing the exact number of ounces that stand for delivery says nothing about when
to act on that information. The numbers have been low for some time, and bullish, as
well, but if one went long on that concrete factual information, one could have sustained
some hefty losses, at least in the futures market. Buying and holding the physical is a
different matter and done for materially different reasons.

We prefer to follow what the market has to say about what all others are saying about the
market, and opinions on the market are boundless. The actual number of participants
who make an active buy or sell trade decision is what can be read from a chart, in the form
of price and volume. It is the language of the market and how it speaks.

For all of the discontinuity between unprecedented demand and artificially suppressed
“supply,” the charts have been the most accurate barometer, as price rallied to the highs
of $50, as well as back down to the $18 area.

Will silver lead gold in the next rally, or not? Which will bottom first? In some ways, it
does not matter because the turnaround time factor will be very close. Here is how we
read current price conditions in silver and what the market is saying about them.


Dec 9, 2013 - 11:25pm

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

  • Harvey: OH!!OH!! negativity or backwardation is upon us for the first two months! GOFO numbers are now decreasing in the positive for all months. GOFO rates are negative and thus in backwardation for the first two months and heading for backwardation in the 3 and 6 months as the Eastern nations ask for their gold in London and at the Comex. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 835.71. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,304.49.
  • Mark O’Byrne (GoldCore): Chinese gold bullion demand remains voracious and will likely pick up after the recent price falls and ahead of Chinese New Year. October saw China's second highest month for gold imports ever, according to Hong Kong customs data. China imported 148 tons in October, the second highest recorded level. The record was in March 2013 when China imported 224 tons. October marked China's 26th consecutive month of being a substantial net gold importer.
  • GoldCore on Bail-Ins: A bail-in is when regulators or governments have statutory powers to restructure the liabilities of a distressed financial institution and impose losses on both bondholders & depositors. Simply stated, a bank bail-in is an attempt to resolve and restructure a bank as a going concern, by creating additional bank capital (recapitalisation) via forced conversion of the bank’s creditors’ claims (potentially bonds and deposits) into newly created share capital (common shares of the bank). DS: DS: The concept is simple. They close the bank and take your money and give you some worthless pieces of paper making you a shareholder in a failed bank.
  • DS: The Financial Stability Board defines market infrastructures subject to bailins to include multilateral securities and derivatives clearing and settlement systems, and a whole host of exchange and transaction systems, such as payment systems, central securities depositories, and trade depositories. This would mean that an unsecured creditor claim to, for example, a clearing house institution, such as Comex, or to a stock exchange, such as the NYSE, could in theory be affected if such an institution needed to be bailed-in.
  • Alasdair Macleod: We must conclude that China’s future interest is no longer with America, which has been her largest trading partner. Her new ambitions are predominantly towards Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This she sees as her home turf with lots to develop. And the most important outstanding strategic objective for China is to do away with the US dollar for Asian cross-border trade, and also eventually with all other trade wherever possible.
  • Chris Powell: China's gold imports through Hong Kong have returned to near a record-high level and the leading source of the metal is Switzerland, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust. The new data supports observations of a continuing great flow of the monetary metal from West to East.
  • Koos Jansen: The main source for Hong Kong’s gold is still Switzerland. Hong kong net gold import from Switzerland in October was 85 tons, down from 99 tons in September, – 14 % m/m. Year to date total net import from the Swiss stands at a massive 782 tons.
  • Tyler Durden: According to Hong Kong customs data, in the month of October (with the usual one month delay), China imported 148 total tons of gold in a month in which the price of gold, once again plunged. Curiously, unlike momentum chasers of paper ETF promises to get gold delivery, China continues to BTFD in gold, and the 148 tons of import in the past month was the second highest monthly import ever through Hong Kong, second only to the 224 tons imported in March of 2013.
  • Jessie (Jessie's American cafe): Indian gold price premium: 23.2%. Gold is trading over there at $1514.00 per oz.
  • Revenu-Québec is seeking prison sentences and fines totalling $750-million for Kitco Metals Inc. founder Bart Kitner and directors with several other gold trading firms following one of the biggest tax fraud investigations in provincial history.
  • Peter Cooper: India has emerged as among the biggest consumers of silver from almost zero a year ago because the taxation of gold is switching precious metal investors to the second monetary metal, David Franklin at Sprott Asset Management told our friends at Agora Financial In the first six months of 2013 India imported 130 million ounces of silver, a trend that has continued throughout the year.
All this and more on... The Harvey Report! https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/610236#comment-610236 DayStar
Dec 9, 2013 - 11:41pm

Australia Wants Its Gold Back

December 8, 2013

Gold repatriation has been a hot topic in the last 2 years. After Germany, Venezuela, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, Ecuador, Switzerland, it could be Australia’s turn.

The latest campaign baseline is “Return Aussie Gold” initiated by an Australian volunteer. On his campaign site he writes the following:

There is unprecedented structural change underway in the international gold market due to growing uncertainty around the global financial system. There are also substantial reasons for concern associated with storing Australia’s Gold Reserves in London.

As Australians let’s join together and petition The Federal Government to immediately act prudently and physically repatriate Australia’s Gold Reserves.

The ”Return Aussie Gold” website has a petition which should be signed by as much as possible people and returned as a hard copy in order to be valid. Go to the petition page.

From the FAQ section of the website:

Where is Australia’s gold and how much room is needed to store it on Australian soil?

Australia has 80 tonnes of gold which is managed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as part of its foreign reserves assets. The RBA’s PR department has stated that Australia’s 80 tonnes of Gold Reserves is stored at the Bank of England, in London for cost efficiency and security reasons. However, Australia has international standard bullion storage facilities with capacity to store Australia’s gold at cost competitive rates. Also the cost to build a new Federal Government owned facility is negligible when compared to the current value of Australia’s gold ($3.3 billion).

To store Australia’s gold reserves, how much room is needed? A stack of 80 cubes (80 tonnes) would measure approximately 1.44m x 1.80m x 1.44m, which is smaller than a small car. Realistically, gold is stored in 12.5kg [400oz] bars on steel pallets, so 80 tonnes would take up an area around the size of an average Australian lounge room.

Thousands of tonnes of gold are transported around the world every year; therefore repatriating Australia’s gold would be a straight forward exercise.

Why is it critically important to repatriate Australia’s gold reserves back to Australian soil?

“Possession is nine-tenths of the law,” an expression meaning that ownership is easier to maintain if one has possession of something, or difficult to enforce if one does not.

Australia holds two main assets as foreign reserves, i.e. gold and currencies. Gold only makes up 6% of the total value.

If the value of the currencies held by the RBA (and every other Central Bank) plummets due to a new GFC, gold will be the back-up reserve. This is exactly the reason gold is held now.

Why is Australia’s gold insurance seriously lacking?

Foreign reserves are assets held by Central Banks to back its country’s liabilities. These assets are generally gold and different reserve currencies, mostly the US dollar and to a lesser extent the Euro, the UK pound sterling and the Japanese Yen.

The International Financial System is based on the circulation of the US dollar and other currencies.

Gold is an internationally acceptable wealth storage asset that does not carry any counter-party risk. Due to this fact gold is held to manage and diversify the counter-party risks associated with holding currencies (e.g. US dollar) within foreign reserve holdings as the RBA said in 1996, gold is “insurance against the breakdown of the international financial system.”

The following is the amount of gold some major Central Bank hold as foreign reserves (source WGC) at June 30 2013: USA (70% gold), Germany (66% gold), France (65% gold), Italy (65% gold), European Central Bank (27% gold), Spain (23% gold) and United Kingdom (12% gold).

Prior to the RBA selling 167 tonnes of Australia’s gold, Australia held about 20% of its foreign reserves in gold, which was roughly in line with the gold holding of developed countries. (source RBA)

Australia now holds only 6% of its foreign reserves in gold (Source – IMF and World Gold Council)

Can the Federal Government ask the RBA to repatriate Australia’s gold reserves?

Yes. As an independent Central Bank the RBA Board of Directors manages the affairs of the bank, but is accountable to the Parliament for its actions.

Section 11 of the Reserve Bank Act 1959 lays down procedures which are to be followed if there is a difference of opinion between the Australian Government and the Reserve Bank Board as to whether the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is ‘directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia’.


Dec 10, 2013 - 12:00am

Last one and its night, night

The Star Wars Beam Weapons and
Star Wars Directed-Energy Weapons (DEW)
(A focus of the Star Wars Program)
Dr. Judy Wood and Dr. Morgan Reynolds
(originally posted: October 17, 2006)

Page 7: The Conclusions

XVI. Conclusions

Here are the principal data that must be explained:

  1. The Twin Towers were destroyed faster than physics can explain (at free fall speed "collapse").
  2. They underwent mid-air pulverization and were turned to dust before they hit the ground.
  3. The protective bathtub was not significantly damaged by the destruction of the Twin Towers.
  4. The rail lines, the tunnels and most of the rail cars had only light damage.
  5. The WTC mall survived well, witnessed by Warner Bros. Road Runner and friends.
  6. The seismic impact was minimal, far too small based on our comparison with the Kingdome controlled demolition.
  7. The Twin Towers were destroyed from the top down, not bottom up.
  8. The demolition of WTC7 was whisper quiet and the seismic signal was no greater than background noise.
  9. The upper 80 percent, approximately, of each tower was turned into fine dust and did not crash to the earth.
  10. The upper 90 percent, approximately, of WTC7 was turned into fine dust and did not crash to the earth.
  11. File cabinet with folder dividers survived.
  12. Office paper was densely spread throughout lower Manhattan, unburned, often along side burning cars.
  13. Vertical round holes were cut into buildings 4, 5 and 6, plus a cylindrical arc into Bankers Trust and into Liberty street in front of Bankers Trust.
  14. All planes except top secret missions were ordered down until 10:31 a.m. (when only military flights were allowed to resume), after both towers were destroyed, and only two minutes after WTC 1 had been destroyed.
  15. Approximately 1,400 motor vehicles were towed away, toasted in strange ways, during the destruction of the Twin Towers.
  16. The order and method of destruction of each tower minimized damage to the bathtub and adjacent buildings.
  17. Twin Tower control without damaging neighboring buildings, in fact all seriously damaged or destroyed buildings had a WTC prefix, and no others.
  18. The north wing of WTC 4 was left standing, neatly sliced from the main body which virtually disappeared.
  19. The WTC1 and WTC2 rubble pile was far too small to account for the mass.
  20. The WTC7 rubble pile was too small and contained a lot of mud.
  21. Eyewitness testimony about toasted cars, instant disappearance of people by "unexplained" waves, a plane turning into a mid-air fireball, electrical power cut off moments before WTC 2 destruction, and the sound of explosions.
  22. There were many flipped cars in the neighborhood of the WTC complex near trees with full folliage.

* The possibility that a technology exists. Since invention of the microwave for cooking in 1945 and laser beam in 1955*, commercial and military development of beam technology has proceeded apace, so use of high-energy beams are likely

What theories are available to explain these phenomena? We can identify seven theories:

  1. Natural causes such as earthquakes and hurricanes
  2. Arson
  3. The official theory of airplane impact, fires and weakened steel collapsing
  4. Conventional demolition with explosives such as RDX, dynamite, etc.
  5. Demolition via thermite or its variants
  6. Fission or fusion nukes (and clean bombs)
  7. Beam weapons, energy weapons, directed-energy weapons (DEW)


hans007 Hammer
Dec 10, 2013 - 7:31am

speaking as a non boomer, i

speaking as a non boomer, i think our plan is to just vote down paying for your stuff and letting you guys die. that is probably what will happen, once my generation is a bit older and starts voting more. or well i'm 32, and i personally am doing allright, but looking at the vast majority of my peers, most of them when voting in secret will let you guys starve. nothing against you personally but this generation is not exactly happy with how this is going to end. we also learned growing up that everyone is out for themselves, we grew up in the 80s after all.

Dec 10, 2013 - 7:44am


In a country whose government and media appear only too eager to conjure up fear of “bioterrorism” and “biological weapons,” it’s shocking (albeit obviously deliberate) to what extent the GMO issue remains omitted from mainstream discussion. Consider that the message from these scientists seems to be that the whole planet is already under attack by the persistent and largely unchecked, reckless behavior of greedy, unruly U.S. corporations – corporations whose activities appear to be sponsored by the federal government. And whether you know it yet or not, your body is the battleground. The letter, as posted by the Institute of Science in Society (https://www.i-sis.org.uk/list.php), is a collective call for the immediate suspension of any and all releases of GM crops and products into the environment for at least five years, in order to allow for more thorough testing. The scientists further demand that all patents on life-forms and living processes – including seeds, cell lines and genes – be revoked and banned “for a comprehensive public inquiry into the future of agriculture and food security for all.” Life is a discovery, they say, not an innovation, and patents on life-forms and living processes “sanction biopiracy of indigenous knowledge and genetic resources, violate basic human rights and dignity, compromise healthcare, impede medical and scientific research and are against the welfare of animals.” Furthermore, they argue that GM crops provide no identifiable benefits either to farmers or consumers; instead, they offer only very significant risks to all living things. - See more at: https://wakeupcallnews.blogspot.com/2013/08/over-800-world-scientists-ag...



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