All The Fuss

Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - 9:36am

The PMs shot higher this morning after the Chicago Fed Goon was interviewed by LIESman on CNBS. The metals catapulted higher when The Goon admitted that more QE is likely because the economy is in such terrible shape. Really? NO! Whodathunkit?

Because this is a full-service PM site, here is a link to the full "interview":

Could LIESman's head get any shinier? In a sort of Pinocchio fashion, LIESman's head gets more more shiny the more he shills and pimps for The Fed. Maybe we need to develop some sort of "Shiny Head Index" to help us all calibrate the degree to which LIESman is propagandizing? I can see it now. "Today's LIESman SHI is a 9. Be very cautious and take everything with skepticism". Hmmm. Have to give that one some thought.

Anyway, back to business. Gold is attempting to hold its gains but is already about $10 off its highs. I'm inclined to do some buying today as I expect the metals to be firm the remainder of the week, ahead of the BLSBS on Friday. Signals that the NFP (non-farm payroll) number will be lousy are already appearing. Namely, this "interview" today and the fact that President O'bottom pushed back his historic "jobs speech" to next week. Again, the logic is: Lousy job report = lousy economy. Lousy economy = more QE. More QE = much higher PMs.

As you know, I'm very excited about silver but I'm trying to pick my spot to enter. Open interest tumbled all of the way back toward 115,000 yesterday which is extremely bullish and pushing me to act in haste. The area around 41.25-41.50 would seem to be the right price as silver looks primed to mount an assault on 42.30 again. Once through there, it will spring toward 44 and, beyond there, 46.

Here are a couple of other interesting items to ingest. First, this guy does an excellent job of summarizing my thoughts toward Venezuela and its gold repatriation. Though El Commandante would certainly and understandably prefer to have his gold in his hands, at its heart this is an act of "financial war", a move to further destabilize the financial system of "the West".

Here's more on "The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment":

And here are two, interesting reads from KWN. First, here is John Embry of Sprott Asset Mgmt:,_Premiums_Exploding.html

Eric also interviewed Louise Yamada. There are lots of amateur chart-readers in the world, myself included. Louise Yamada is a professional. As a general technician, she has no peer.

OK, that's all for now. Gold is 1828 and silver is 41.38. Let's see where we go from here. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 30, 2011 - 10:20am


Really big, really beautiful (I bought 2 to put away for the g-kids for this Christmas):

Eric Original
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:20am


Big, Shiny, and Special? For a 7 year old? I don't know how you could go wrong with a brand spanking new American Silver Eagle. He'll love it!!

If you want to go even bigger, consider the America the Beautiful coins. He could start collecting the set!

Red Pill speconomist
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:21am


good page here with all his best vids in one place, the mortgage bankers speech before the crash is my fave i think :)

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:21am

@ BostonMatrix - I know what

@ BostonMatrix - I know what you mean, I like the price to come to me as well. I've been in and out of SLV calls since the end of June where my seasonal charts predicted a yearly or near term bottom. But as we get closer to the strong Fall season everytime I sell I think - will I be able to get back in again before the next big run-up? So I pretty much went all in on the spec trade side of my accounts last week near the low, and will sit on my positions for a while. You can't go wrong buying Phyzz!

Timber Tim
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:21am

Thanks Turd

Full service PM'S site,I like it Turd.A small spoon full of honey in my tea please.While I analyse what would go in an ETF that tracks the "SHINY HEAD INDEX".But never forgot Turd that in a survey of a large number of women.It was found that 85% of them said that bald men are great lovers.I suppose nature always finds a balance.I can't wait to be bald.Nor can my wife after reading the survey.

Remembering a story in Greece about the increased demand for gold and silver during the protest earlier this year.It is starting to feed through the system.Bigger banks,bigger control.They will start to restrict what you can do with your savings soon enough.Your money,the money you sweated for.Creep is the enemy and the banks are always creeping around chipping a way at this and that,till you are stripped to the bone.

"We congratulate this latest improvised moment in can kicking: in the meantime, we hope to shortly update readers on the €10 or so billion in deposits pulled out of Greek banks in the most recent month as the NBG data is updated."

Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:21am

@DPH Oil

Those were my thoughts exactly, re: war, earlier in the morning. There's something seriously up in the Oil markets. This needs to be watched like a hawk.


Aug 30, 2011 - 10:22am

Gold H&S

Is looking awful. Looks more like H&S with a growth that needs to be looked at by doctor.

maravich44 Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:23am

@ Tom L. Boundaries.

We are being pushed and tested.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:24am

Painting tape continues (front running of the citizen traders)

Repeat posting from last thread.

I'd like to hear some answers to these points.

It seems to me that retail investors are at a clear disadvantage in today's markets.

Look at the chart from yesterday. If you got up like most regular Americans and went to your trading program at say 7 AM PST or 10 AM EST and you put in a trade, you would be behind their HFT algo's on the ride down. So, they would be consistently buying and selling ahead of you. Your options would lose quite a bit and you'd be unable to get out of that position at your best price. You'd be stuck with losses as their server front runs your interest.

Now, forward by 24 hours. You want to build position more but when you wake up, they spike the price of gold BEFORE you can get back into position. The spike occurs prior to even them posting updated pricing info through ETrade, Fidelity, and others.

If you are into options trading on futures, which houses do you use? Lind-Waldock is not Lind-Waldock, its another company now. Do you really trust this new company? What other companies are there to trade in these papers?

More importantly, are you seriously going to tell me that the paper Comex price of $1790 was real?

It really seems more like the paper writing liars in Chicago and NYC wrote $1790 as a number into their HFT algo. They then just pushed the number into their machines 24 hours prior.

The gold price was surpressed by that swing (and last week) in order to permit these bullion banks to sell gold into the market at the lowest possible price at options / futures roll over dates.

I can only conclude that the gold and silver price is manipulated by these people at the cost of the consumer and the government.

The time decay curves of the options on gold and silver or GLD and SLV are interesting aren't they?

I'm very frustrated with observing this behavior. It's locking out most of the American savers from the market and the utter absence of any CFTC or SEC activity to defend the interests of the citizens is nauseating. I really have no idea how you guys can feel comfortable knowing that this type of clear manipulation and fraud continues.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:26am

Back In

After standing aside for a while I have put the $ back t work in CEF, PHYS, GDX, and GDXJ. Now in I plan to stay in. Powder left. Also bought AUG on the usual sell off of the purchaser. And SVM. Thanks to this community for your insights.

22tlane Eric Original
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:28am

Thanks Eric

I was looking at the America the Beautiful coins. Think that is the route I will take. He has seen so many of my american eagles that I needed to go bigger for his excitement. Plus when his sisters see that 5 oz coin....I think I know what will be on their list. Stealth stacking through my kids is the best. Thanks again.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:28am

Yep. Ugly looking H&S growth on shoulder

I think Turd has to pull the trigger soon on his silver 41.25-41.50 entry point...... or will lose the opportunity for a long, long time, if not forever........

Mudsharkbytes 22tlane
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:32am


My son loves his Maple Leafs. I found him one at the LCS that was a 2000 commemorative in a plastic holder inside a presentation case for him for his last birthday. He doesn't care about the presentation case but he loves the coin.

But I agree those turtles look nice, if you can find one.

'course if you got the money for a 5 ouncer, go for it.

tburk Strongsidejedi
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:32am

Get In-Stay In

Agreed, Strongsidejedi, nothing to do but to get in and stay in, and not try to time it at all. The future seems knowable for PMs.

On another topic....PSLV NAV is too high, SLV is a scam. Any other way to play Silver other than CEF?

Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:32am


Absolutely. That 598.7 level on the HUI just will not fall easily. There needs to be a close on the 10 or 15 minute chart for me to consider it in the rear-view, and then I'm still looking over my shoulder until I see a 60 minute close.

First bit of heavy resistance for SVM is the 50 DMA @ $8.67 or so. It should run to there today.


Hard Rain
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:34am

@Eric Original - Thank You


Just wanted to say a quick thank you for being so generous with your time and knowledge. I have had a few questions and you have answered promptly and with great insight.

I know you have done the same for others here.

You are a great asset to this site and community.

All the best to you.


Aug 30, 2011 - 10:36am


SVM is looking like we hoped and figured it would.

All of you out there that have been talking up SVM and following it closely and wondering...."When?!?" Looks like we've arrived at that point and it's right now.

My dad called me earlier at 9:00 a.m. asking me about Yamana Gold AUY. And I gave him the thumbs up. We shall see.

AUY barely budged throughout all of the recent market turmoil the past few weeks and the sell off in gold last week early on barely had a effect.

Besides having lots of gold production and nice properties, I'm thinking takeover target. M&A have to occur at some point soon I would think. GoldCorp seems overdue for a acquisition.

I can't help but think that some short covering has to take place soon in these miners.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:36am

    Gold Stocks Inch

Gold Stocks Inch Closer to Major Breakout

In recent commentaries we’ve discussed the relative strength of the gold stocks and in particular the relative strength of the large miners. This relative strength comes at a time when the sector is nearing a potentially historic breakout. We’ve written about this breakout before but now the gold shares are closing in and it could only be a matter of days. GDX, our proxy for large-caps is now, after almost a year of trading in a tight range, only 3-4% away from new all-time high territory. Meanwhile, ZJG, the Canadian junior gold ETF, though lagging behind, is in great position to follow GDX to new highs.

To get a feel for how the gold shares could perform after the breakout, consider one of the most classic breakouts. In late 1982 and 1983 the DJIA broke past 1000. This came after a 16-year consolidation. The retest came in early 1984 and the gradual move back to 1300 formed a cup and handle type pattern that facilitated an explosive move from 1300 to 2700 in just two years. The cup and handle lasted about 16 months.

The large cap gold stocks broke to new all time highs in late 2010. The breakout move, though small has formed a very bullish consolidation that has lasted almost one year. Tight consolidations are bullish. In this context of sustained new all-time highs for the first time in 30 years, an ensuing breakout after tight consolidation would have hugely bullish implications. Interestingly, its actually the junior golds that look more like the DJIA post-breakout. We use ZJG as it includes only gold companies and is more reflective of the junior gold sector than GDXJ. As you can see, ZJG is likely forming a cup and handle pattern. Look for a breakout in this market shortly after the breakout in the large caps.

Here we go. The table is set. Unlike in 2008, the fundamentals for this sector are outstanding. Unlike in 2008, we have trouble in the sovereign credit. Unlike in 2008, Gold is accelerating and Silver is not far off its parabolic high. Unlike in 2008, the gold and silver stocks are holding up while the rest of the market falters. A simple way to take advantage would be to invest in a gold mutual fund, GDX or GDXJ. However, picking the right stocks and employing market timing tactics will produce better returns and in some cases, reduce your risk. If you ’d be interested in professional guidance then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:37am

Oil again

Just bought more seriously undervalued PGH OCt $13's at $0.15/ea. If oil goes plaid, and it looks like it wants to, this stock will move quickly back to that level.


Aug 30, 2011 - 10:38am


Agree with Eric O. When my 12 yr old saw the 5oz ATB set (Glacier/Gettysburg) she wanted to trade her 1oz Austrian Phil for it.

It's okay to laugh at your child, right?

Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:39am


AUY is going to explode from here. It moved nicely up $3 out of its base and has taken a week off to bounce around in the $15's. Next up, on a HUI breakout is $18-20. The short-covering in SVM is going to be biblical.


Aug 30, 2011 - 10:40am

Buy signals gold and silver

Gold's on a buy signal from about $1810 with a trend line break on H4 TSI

Silver's on a buy signal from about $40.80

Time to get some work in before the holiday.

And they can kiss that painted H&S goodbye, right shoulders don't go higher than the left on a true H&S formation. They tried yesterday and failed on huge volume. Shorts will be scurrying for cover here now.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:40am

Reading the Tea Leaves...


Always informative!!

Louise Yamada is very competent. For those who would like to delve in to reading the tea lea..., I mean charts, Jack D. Schwager has some great material on TA.


Dr G
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:41am

A Formal Letter to Silver

August 30, 2011 RE: Concerning your recent moves up this morning Silver, It's about damn time. Sincerely, Dr G and other Turdites

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:41am


Thanks a million for all your posts re: SVM. Yes, it seems to be doing quite nicely.

Ferd Torgerson
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:46am

@Tom L NORFED Liberty Dollars


My comment that I was "glad" related more to my relief that my own coins were not the subject of the article; not that I was "glad" that the Liberty Dollars were subject to confiscation.

I've only seen a couple of articles on the subject with the one posted by RuNuts today being the most detailed. Was not aware that such a storm could possibly arise or that the decision could have such negative implications for so many. To your point, I believe that such efforts on the part of the government for such an intrusive attack on property rights of collectors would be met with a very strong public outcry.

Maybe the best solution to this is for Ron Paul to buy one and display it at a public appearance and defy anyone to take his. What will they do - bust a Congressman for holding one contraband coin while still trying to explain how thousands of weapons illegally walked into Mexico with US Government involvement? I think our law enforcement agencies have much more important things to do than intrude on the rights of private collectors. If they don't now, they WILL after January 2013.

Again, sorry if I gave the wrong impression. BTW: Was looking to buy SVM this morning but it took off before I had the chance. Now, I'm a little nervous about buying at these levels. Can't see chasing it at $8.60.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:49am

The screw has turned

CNBC is now pumping gold. Here we go. Consumers will now start jumping on and up we go. Pisani just said that all gold mined would only fill 2 olympic sized pools.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:49am

Get in stay in

Sage advice tburk. I have tracked the cost basis of every piece of physical I've ever bought and I have never sold anything. I also try trading in and out of paper (to get money to buy more physical.) My physical stash is doing much better than my trading account. Buy and hold is dead just for stocks.

Aug 30, 2011 - 10:50am

a claSSic tesla cover

get your shine on, or should i say sign on

Video unavailable
Tom L
Aug 30, 2011 - 10:51am


If I came across as attacking you directly, I didn't mean it that way. I understand your personal relief, it was important for me to highlight just what that change meant. So, please, accept my apology if I overdid it. It was not my intention.

This may be nothing, but given O-Bomb-Ya's predilections towards punishing his political enemies, I'm not taking this lightly. There's nothing for it now, I was an LD Associate and bought a lot of their coins early on. It was a great way to accumulate silver at stink bid prices.

I still have them and their status as contraband will only serve to make them more valuable but, if some gov't stooge is pointing a gun at my lil' girl's head I'm going to show them where they are.



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