Painting The Tape

388
128
Mon, Aug 29, 2011 - 10:59am

"Painting The Tape" is an old stockbroker term. In essence, an individual conspires to make the "tape" look positive or negative for the day by dumping a bunch of orders right at the close, thereby "painting the tape" with the illusion of all-day strength or weakness. It used to be a somewhat common practice. It also used to be illegal.

As this pertains the the PMs, The Cartel regularly conspires not to paint the "tape". No, they have bigger goals in mind. They want to paint the entire chart. They know how much money is run into and out of the metals pits each day by chart-reading, HFT algos. They know that if they can cweate a scawey chawt pattewhn, they can induce WOPR to help them out on the sell side. You can always count on The Cartel to never miss an opportunity. Double-tops, outside reversal days and H&S tops. If the opportunity is there, they're going to take it. I mentioned this likelihood last week and in the previous thread.

From Thursday: "All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded."

From Friday: "As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens."

From Saturday: "That said, don't expect wine and roses on Monday. As predicted late last week, the metals have rebounded right to points where The Cartel can attempt to create head-and-shoulders tops. I don't think I can ever remember a time when, given the opportunity to paint the tape, The Cartel did not pounce. Early next week could still get a little dicey while The Forces of Darkness make their moves."

I remind of of this not because I need to once again demonstrate my brilliance (), I state it to keep you grounded and unafraid. As I've pointed out repeatedly, the reason The Turd has become the hands-down most accurate PM sage/predictor on the internet is simple: Once you accept that the ongoing battle for PM supremacy is between The Cartel of bullion banks and an overwhelming tide of regular investors who are just now waking up and demanding real assets and sound money, predicting support and resistance levels becomes quite simple. So easy, even a Turd can do it.

So, once again I ask, where do we go from here? Currently, gold is about $10 off its lows at 1793 and silver is at 40.83. I'm not buying anything just yet. First of all, look at the 1-minute charts from today's open:

Now, compare those two charts to the opening charts from last Wednesday. Of course, last Wednesday saw the second gold margin hike announced after the close.

That's enough right there to keep me on the sidelines all day. You should consider the same.

However, more selling and chart painting will eventually create an opportunity to do some buying so we need to be prepared. First up, here's a gold chart. Since it is the current object of C/C/C derision, I'm not overly excited about adding to my current positions. (If you're wondering, I have call spreads in October and December.) IF the Forces of Evil are able to drive gold all the way back toward last week's lows, I plan to buy back the "sold" side of my spreads and open them up to greater potential return. We'll see.

Here's where I'm planning to blow my dry powder, though: Silver. If we can get another margin hike in gold (which would be criminal and unnecessary but since when has that stopped them?), then maybe silver could fall all the way back under $40 and once again approach the bottom of the channel we found last week. IF it does, I'll be ready.

OK, that's all. I hope everyone has a great day! TF

p.s. As you know, I can no longer bear to watch CNBS. The only time I ever have it on is the first Friday of every month at 8:20 am. I always get a kick out of watching The Shill, The Coug and Liesman backpedal and SPIN. Anyway, if you are watching CNBS today, please let us all know the first time some douchebag comes on and shows the "clear head-and shoulders top that has formed on the gold chart". That should be worth a few giggles.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  388 Comments

Tom L
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:32pm

More SVM Oddities

Most options I've seen trade within $0.10 of their Black-Scholes price which is profoundly affected by the implied volatility metric used in the equation.

Earlier in the thread I was putting together an example of how to use the leverage vs. risk capital mechanism to play long-dated OTM calls for good returns on small bets.

I picked the $10 Oct SVM call. It turned out to have a bid/ask of $0.75/$0.85. I ran the Black-Scholes calculator here:

https://www.optionistics.com/f/option_calculator

and got a current price of $0.20. Even accounting for higher implied volatility, those calls shouldn't be more than $0.40 or $.50. That was an hour ago, they are now up to $0.80/$0.90 bid/ask and the price hasn't changed. Someone knows something is up with the stock, why else would there be such a huge premium on their Oct calls?

The premiums on that stock are enormous all through the time series, I know it's a volatile stock, but damn something smells really rotten out there.

Ta,

buzlightening
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:33pm

Obvious banksters in on 1 trillion QE the FOMC 9/21

ben jackass son holy speak with his fraudster imps know red hot fed easy hot money coming. Publicly announced 2:15pm est Wed. 9/21 but the banksters will be well positioned by then. banksters will sell into any rally after 9/21 as the rollover debt into 10/1 new fiscal year is Jupiter sized. Mkts will feel the weight in OCT. PM's have no place to go but up through Dec. Keep stacking that physical as the run is on.

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:35pm

Au/Ag divergence on the 1 minute chart...

Gold falling and silver trending slightly up... unusual. Not sure what to do with that. Normally if it's the other way round it's a signal to get the hell out of silver quick! (@day traders)

Edit: By "other way round" I mean when gold goes up and silver treads water... watch out!

Economical Disaster
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:36pm

Criminals Stick Together another BAILOUT COMING

Looks like the FEDS will bailout BANK of AMERICA with Buffet putting in another 5 billion here..he made 3.5 billion on the GOLDMAN SACHS bailout scam

QUOTE:

When Wall Street nearly collapsed in September 2008, Buffett rallied behind the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and bet big on its passage. He put $5 billion into failing investment bank Goldman Sachs. "If I didn't think the government was going to act, I would not be doing anything this week," Buffett said on CNBC at the time.

https://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/barack-buddy-buffett...

pbreed
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:41pm

Week away,,,

My son is getting married at Burning man on Friday. So my wife and I leave today. Burning man is out in the desert without network access. So I need to decide what to do for a week ahead without the ability to change it.

I closed the gold puts I bought on Friday this morning for a slight profit.

I left 1/3 of the paper trading account as dry powder, I bought December silver and gold calls.

I still have a really queasy feeling about gold, but I really think that December is long enough that we will be up.


Aug 29, 2011 - 3:41pm

Interesting - No Cash Required for CA Unemployment Benefits

Govt redistribution at work. Cash is being worked out of the system.

Just as predicted, by the way. Watch for ALL forms of govt handouts to be done with debt cards. That way, the sheeple will not know that their purchasing power has been stolen from them by inflation, QE to infinity, bailouts, etc.

Tesla
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:41pm

the short answer re OI Q:

I'm looking at several things technical, fundamental and statistical. the latter being OI and COT#s...

OI in ag that is at rock bottom makes 'up' the path of least resistance. This is STRONGLY reinforced by nearness to the relevant moving averages (90 135) and the fundamentals = very very bullish!!!

OI in au that is not at rock bottom makes the path of least resistance less clear (notice I was asking MrGneiss re where he thought rock bottom for gold is). The case for au IS NOT Reinforced by nearness to relevant moving averages. Gold is WAY above the 100 and 150 (or 90, 135-144, 180 if you prefer) and therefore NOT so bullish IMHO from a technical perspective. The fundos are very strong but the recent EE and MSM invitation for the public to buy gold (JPM 'going to 2500') all combines to sour any bullishness on my part. (I'm holding NOT selling)

Turd knows best - I'm just a hack so don't make decisions based on my opinion PLEASE!

[EDIT]

RE the JPM & MSM: as hard as they are trying to scare everyone out of gold on CNBS today I'd say HOLD ON (DO NOT SELL) and wait for a clear buy signal that will present itself very soon likely =]

¤
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:45pm

Ron Paul and some optimism in PM's today

Everything Ron Paul had to say in that ZH article was right on. It's a shame the MSM will pretty much ignore a Presidential candidate with such a allegation.

If Rick Perry said the same thing it would be on TV for sure and they would just ridicule him. I'm not worried about Perry ultimately because at this point he's possibly coming on too strong and too angry and at some point will put his foot or reputation in his mouth (or ass). He's trying to be the tough leader type of guy but I noticedand he can't seem to help himself trying to make jokes and over the top comments at the same time.

That will backfire at some pointand he will not be the Repub. candidate imo. IDK what it will take for Ron Paul to get some serious air time and discussion. I personally would like to see him blow his cool and lecture the MSM and his potential voters on what is exactly going on. Something so outrageous and so blatantly truthful they have to talk about it and him at the same time.

Christ...he could just get up on TV and say that the entire stock market is rigged and that the big banks are fixing commodities prices etc. I'm pretty sure he would get the MSM attention at that point.

One can only wish and hope for something that awesome to happen on live TV. Maybe the next debate?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm perfectly fine with gold hanging around $1800 and silver above $40 with everything that has taken place in the past week or so. Think of all the margin hikes and the market volatility overall the past week that took place and the metals haven't really budged too badly into any real territory you could call negative at all.

They tried hard to hammer the PM's down today and they could only get so far on a day where the low volume was to their advantage and the events of the past week should have helped them attack it more successfgully then they did.

Pretty encouraging stuff really. Gold is just under $1800 and silver is above $40 on a down day. Much better days ahead for sure.

murphy
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:45pm

@turn re Goldmoney

I like there service. Here's a website that compares them as well.

https://politicalmetals.com/compare-afe-bullionvault-goldmoney/

I have recently started using goldmoney.com MUCH more often for AG. In the past I just put in an amount and bought.

Now I am taking my time. When you click on buy, it locks in the metal price for 5 MINUTES! I watch for the dip and click.

I wait for a further dip to happen and if so, click cancel and rebuy to start the process over again. Unless you are investing over $10K at a time there is really no downside to buy in smaller increments as far as the premium goes. Here's the premiums below. Of course you have to pay a storage fee as well, but the benefits far out weigh it for me.

Happy clicking!

Silver Buy Rates
Current Spot Rate
$39.6800/oz
Ounces Rates
$1 - 9,999 $41.2632 3.99%
$10,000 - 99,999 $41.1441 3.69%
$100,000 - 499,999 $40.6680 2.49%
$500,000 - 999,999 $40.5489 2.19%
$1,000,000+ $40.4696 1.99%
Colonel-Angus
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:46pm

Wackzingo

This a free website, I think someone posted on here a while ago. There's a section on options trading in the financial section, along with "Will Geithner's plan work?" (LOL) and it's pretty easy to follow. You could also brush up on your calculus if ya have a mind to.

https://www.khanacademy.org/#browse

CreditCrumbs California Lawyer
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:46pm

CA Lawer, Re: Debit Card

Just as predicted, by the way. Watch for ALL forms of govt handouts to be done with debt cards. That way, the sheeple will not know that their purchasing power has been stolen from them by inflation, QE to infinity, bailouts, etc.

CA Lawyer, how is debit card different than cash in terms of debasement? Can you elaborate?

mrgneiss
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:47pm

@margaritatime - I agree I've

@margaritatime - I agree I've been seeing that sentiment all over the web as well, that gold is headed lower, to $1650 or so. I think the simple answer is that the MSM propaganda machine has once again done it's job. I think the downside is very limited here, and the upside is better. Did you see this chart from Silver_watchdog? Gold trading has gone through the roof in India in August, and it is a much more physically oriented market than our paper gold markets. I can only think of bullish fundamentals and can't honestly think of anything truly bearish - the only thing that pops into my head is a blizzard of unbacked paper shorts.

https://i51.tinypic.com/2hxqc9h.png

Tesla
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:48pm

@MrGneiss

Thanks for your reply... we are then very near rock bottom in gold but not quit as drastically as we are in silver. I agree if 490k is the basement that gold is likely staying well above the $1600-1660 that the shills on the BS Box are talking about.

Thanks

(Hopefully DayStar will hook us up over here as well - welcome DayStar!)

mrgneiss
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:52pm

@Tesla - not that we need

@Tesla - not that we need DayStar, because you are doing an awesome job interpreting this stuff for us, but an extra brain never hurts!

madgstrader
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:53pm

Volume Visualised

Volume

(link embedded)

CreditCrumbs BillAuAg
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:53pm

@BillAuAg, Re: The Next Inflation Cycle

"This whole article assumes the the boomers will cash in their house. Please explain why that would be with real estate values at historic lows."

Why wouldn't they? What do you think boomers with fully paid for house will do? Stay in the house doing for decades, leaving the house to their heir? Jobs are hard to come by, they have saved too little for retirement, and all savings that they have are yielding 1-2% in US treasuries, with cost of living going up. They are having cash flow crunch. So why wouldn't they reverse mortgage their fully-paid house? They can get additional cash flow.

turnoffthewater Tom L
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:55pm

Tom L More SVM Oddities

The only thing I see is the put/call ratio was .5 two months ago according to schwab's charts and just touched 1.2 today. I don't know much about puts and calls but just an observation. I do know SVM is a good buy at this price. I hope whoever is keeping the price down keeps pushing it lower so my sub 8/sh orders get filled. EXK has remained @.3 during the same time period. GL

Cheers

Turn

Tesla
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:58pm

I'm Just Starting

To wrap my head around how the OI/COT numbers relate to the price action. Look forward to more experienced opinions and group input. Agreed = More brains ARE better!

Shill
Aug 29, 2011 - 3:58pm

Nice to see the climb at the

Nice to see the climb at the close, but the HUI disappoints again. But you can feel the tension and when she breaks out she will climb in a major way. Patience must be practiced.

ActionFive
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:08pm

turnoffthewater

I've read Rothchild interest in BullionVault. They use Bank of England..

There was no gold to buy there a few days ago(Chavez)? That could mean there is no gold there at all.

Too expensive to trade with.

Advantage is trade is off the grid.

Physical/Sprott's stuff/Goldmoney? better

silverbleve
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:12pm

still here

I've been revisiting this 'ol chart from last week, love the idea of the 'reverse pennant'

Looking it over, I can't help but think we are still in the trading 'range', I like how the range seems to be expanding, volatility like this is what makes for great trades. Buy anywhere near 1750, sell anywhere over 1850 for now is my MO. It feels like playing pinball in slow motion.

Hope this helps other Turds as it has me. Sometimes you've got to take a step back to see the bigger picture. Especially interesting to me is that painting the head and shoulders doesn't break the trend lines here.

Yeah volatility!! Sorry if there is any formatting problems with the chart.

Jake
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:13pm

IT'S ALL ABOUT TIMING

The Ben Bernank Meets The Manchild Outside The Washroom

The Manchild plans to give this "longwinded, long -awaited" speech outlining his "plan" to jump-start the economy that includes enormous additional spending. So, when does he give it? The article referenced says he'll give it "soon" after labor day which is Sept. 5th. The August Jobs Report comes out on Sept. the Tooth.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/article_preview.php?type=bnews&id=165362&...

Since he'll want to take credit for any good news in the jobs report, he'll have that data. If the jobs report is awful, sending the market tanking, (the most likely scenario), he'll use this data along with the "need for spending, caused by the hurricane", to make a case for more infrastructure money printing and extended unemployment benefits.

The Ben Bernank's words regarding "It's up to Congress to jumpstart the economy, citing the Fed has done all it can so far, to stimulate growth", plays well into what Obama is planing to say. Since the Fed meets on Sept. 20-21st. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The Timing of These Two Meetings Should Affect the Silver Price in Between These Two Dates: Sept 6th-Sept. 19th. The Manchild is basically free to give his speech anytime in this window knowing he can rely on The Ben Bernank to hint at QE3 during this next FOMC meeting. Most specifically, a huge beat-down in silver should occur between Sept. 14th through Sept. 18th.

Since The Manchild is always late, I expect him to wait until Sept. 13th to give this speech. This will allow the Evil Banksters to drive the silver up next week, (between Sept. 6th Through the 9th, ending in a margin hike on Sept. 9th), in order to slam it starting Sept. 9th and through the 18th from a much higher level. This is not based on any TA or Chart Mumbo Jumbo, just on "Expected Manipulation" in and around these two events.

Recapping:

Sept. the Tooth: August Jobs Report (Expected to be Lousy)

Sept. 6th Through Sept. 13th: Announcement of the Manchild Plan Speech and MSM Hype. Rally in Gold and Silver

Sept. 9th-Sept 12th Peak in Rally (Maybe a Another Margin Requirement Hike, most likely on Sept. 9th)

Sept 13th (Tuesday Night) Long winded Speech outlining Enormous Spending

Sept. 14th-Sept 18th(And Probably into Sept. 20th) Silver and Gold Beat-Down

Sept. 20-21st The Ben Bernank Hinting at QE3

Starting Sept. 21st. Rally in Gold and Silver

¤
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:17pm

pbreeed

Congrats on the son getting married.

Doing so at the burning Man Festival is pretty cool stuff and symbolic of what happens to a guys freedom (up in flames) upon entering the blessed sanctum of marriage.

(pretty sure any ladies out there just unloaded their eye daggers at me. Sorry. What can I say, I'm divorced and can joke about it.)

Jimbio
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:17pm

Tom L, could you elaborate on

Tom L, could you elaborate on the SVM-ordeal being rotten? This whole OI and options business doesn't really bring it home for me. Explain it to me like i'm 6. :)

¤
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:18pm

Jake

Great pic and caption. LMAO!

CreditCrumbs
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:21pm

@CreditCrumbs

Real quick, here are basically the key characteristics why a debit card is unlike cash:

(1) Cash needs no bank account;

(2) Cash needs no identification card;

(3) Cash is accepted universally (worldwide), without any need for an electronic device, or paperwork;

(4) Cash can be held, and deployed later, guaranteed (although not at the same value if too much time elapses).

Contrast this with a debit card:

(1) Debit card is basically a promise to pay issued from some account remotely located from the holder of the debit card, and hence, there is an account required (and records, etc.) in order to access the value of the debit card;

(2) Some places require ID for a debit card;

(3) Debit cards are not always accepted (local coin store, for example!!);

(4) Debit card is only good if some nebulous counterparty on the other side of the transaction actually honors the transaction. It may be held and deployed to purchase something later, but again, it requires an electronic transaction, plus counterparty;

(5) There are limits upon how much FRN's can be withdrawn in one transaction from an account with a debit card;

(6) There are limits upon how much can be spent on one transaction with a debit card;

As far as debasement, it goes like this.

A person can hold cash in his or her hand, and count how many dollar bills are in it. A person cannot hold his or her hand out, and count how many dollar bills are represented by the plastic ATM card. One more step is required, which step requires access to the network, a computer, etc.

Remember, the FRN's are but a mere counterparty promise, operating upon the illusion of value. A debit card is one step further removed from that illusion. Not only does the debit card have the illusion that by using it to complete a transaction it holds value, the debit card further removes the physical limitation to debasement completely. There is no limitation upon debasement without physical FRNs.

If the govt wants to debase the FRN's, it must do so with stealth, and statistics, i.e., like it has been doing since 1913. For example, look at the COLA's, or the CPI, or the unemployment stats, etc. All of these numbers are illusions of reality.

However, those folks on the low end of the economic ladder do not understand these concepts at all. They just know that the price of cigarettes went up, and that it costs more of the paper FRN's to get the same pack. Same thing with gas, etc. Same thing with food and snacks, etc., but the producers have shrunk the quantities so that it looks like the product is still the same and has not gone up in price.

Now, with a govt issued debit card, there is no need to convert the "value" on the card into FRN's. That can be done, but there is no need to do so. The debit card can just be swiped at the gas pump, market, what have you. There is no cash in jail, either. Why is that? Think about it.

Thus, the govt need only declare that FRN's are now worth 50%, and voila. Sudden decrease in purchasing power, same debit card, no wheelbarrows full of worthless paper FRN's. People can bitch and moan, but so long as all commerce is required to be transacted from debit cards, then the govt wins. Black markets will spring up in earnest, but we already know that, don't we? Got pot?

Likewise, the govt can simply declare a new currency, too, without any requirement of actually printing physical paper. Look at how diabolical it all is. The govt need only announce that the FRN has now become the SDR. All FRN's will be converted AUTOMATICALLY to the new currency. In fact, there will be no currency, as all transactions will take place with approved, govt-issued debit cards. Social security payments, no problem, automatically send, no paper check to mail. Health care? One must use the approved debit card. No need to write a check, or money order, and cash? No cash accepted by the provider, per fed govt mandate that any health care provider can only accept payment from debit cards, in SDRs. See, how easy was that?

So, as the low end of the economic spectrum becomes more and more accustomed to thinking of transacting in terms of using a debit card, then the act of manipulation and control becomes even more easier for TPTB.

If this sounds scary, then it should. Remember Revelations, the mark of the beast? Does it not all scare the daylights out of you?

ActionFive
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:26pm

ES

Look at them blowup the ES while Bernank has stuffed PMs.

Jake
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:26pm

DPH

Thanks!---I'm told most policy-making is done in the Washington D.C. washrooms!

YES---MANCHILD, YOU TINKLED WITH THE ECONOMY!

margaritatime
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:27pm

DPH

Yeah, well, just remember - it goes both ways. I would never sacrifice my freedom [up in flames] no matter how good 'it' was.. eye daggers.. lol

jackinrichmond
Aug 29, 2011 - 4:28pm

wow

great day !

sold off all the rest of my aapl today and bought more phys & pslv.

..now i'm heading over to my local bullion dealer before the sale is over :)

the insiders and hft robots can have the equity markets all to themselves.. it's too much of a casino for this investor.

thanks for all of your help, turd !

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