Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 21, 2013 - 11:00pm
Texas Sandman
Jul 21, 2013 - 11:48pm

all so much foo-farah....

Until we see two closes over the 50 day MA. THEN you can start talking intelligently about a short squeeze.

These mo-mo hedge funds are stupid and predictable.

Jul 21, 2013 - 11:56pm

Entire metals complex....

catching a rise. And you have to ask yourself......"which came first, the chicken....or some burned eggs?" https://www.silverdoctors.com/breaking-massive-fire-reported-in-basement... Who's paper just went up in smoke? Sounds like a repeat of the flooded vault from tropical storm "Sandy"...... The corruption knows no bounds. Fuse Lit.

Jul 21, 2013 - 11:59pm

Fun Fun Fun

Put it to him.

Submitted by Mad5Hatter on July 21, 2013 - 7:55pm. Im gonna start having some fun. LOL!!! Derrick Michael Reid @DerrickMReid 9m
@Mmiikkeevv Spill it, you either know something, or guessing or MOPEing, dont be a weinnie, fess up.
Jul 22, 2013 - 12:52am

New Brenton Woods

we call it the Laguna Woods,

no paper, gold and silver are the only money, certificates ok. 100% backed.

Jul 22, 2013 - 1:29am


Piock, parusskie for spider, spider trust, world's largetst ETF, bullion banks can redeem out of spider trust, lost 13m oz of gold, feeding down manipulation of paper prices. GLD close to 13,000,000 oz down year to date?

China now has 4000 to 8000 tons of gold. JPM treason continues.

FED leases to GS/JPM sale to China physical.

FED ends up with paper, leased gold to GS/JPM, China end up with bullion.

When FED/Germany calls in psyhical, where is GS/JPM going to get the psyhical??

squeez .........

Kaye KWN

Jul 22, 2013 - 2:45am

Bix Weir: Gold-Silver Update and Complete Wipeout of all Debt in

Bix Weir: Gold-Silver Update and Complete Wipeout of all Debt in All Banks Coming in Next Few Months
Jul 22, 2013 - 3:28am


Bix is a whackjob -- Greenspan is a man of the people -- yeah right

Silver Surfer -- your "cabinet" includes some of the most loathsome creatures on the planet. Karl Rove and that other witch Feinstein? wtf is that all about? Even rand is questionable. Small recommendation: post once or twice in the main thread and start a forum all about your imminent presidential appointment and attack on JPM which has lost some momentum. I blame Turd and Sprott for that -- he didnt send the limo?

Jul 22, 2013 - 7:48am

Gold and silver quietly preparing for a major comeback this fall

Why should that happen this autumn? There is only one obvious answer: Wall Street’s long rally against a very poor US economic recovery will finally end with a crash.

Where it will be different to 2008 this time is in the precious metals market. Gold and silver have already been through their correction and this time will be an oversold safe haven in a crisis.

Given the recent bond market squeeze there will be less confidence in treasuries as a safe haven this time round. Remember it used to be the Chinese who were buying all the bonds and now they just can’t get their hands on enough gold.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange settled an amazing 1,098 tonnes of physical gold in settlements compared with just 161 tonnes in the New York Comex in the year to end of June. To put this in perspective that is an eighth of all the US Treasury’s gold reserves in Fort Knox and 40 per cent of global gold production.


Jul 22, 2013 - 7:53am

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase: Pulling an Enron With Commoditie

When it comes to aluminum, cotton, coffee, oil, wheat, and copper the behemoth banks have been charging all manner of rents and premiums for doing nothing other than controlling supply through creating artificial delays to drive up prices then reap the windfall of their own manipulation. It's sweet for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan -- but, like Goldman's old "Timberwolf" scam, "one shitty deal" for everyone else, even large manufacturing corporations.

Goldman Sachs is doing to aluminum exactly what Enron did to energy in the late 1990s and early 2000s: create phony bottlenecks to restrict supply to rip off consumers and skew markets in their favor for things society vitally needs. Jeffrey Skilling's timing was off. Had he held out a few more years he'd be up for a CEO-ship at a big bank or Treasury Secretary in the next administration.


SE kingbee4
Jul 22, 2013 - 1:13pm

LDS and stacking

I would guess maybe 3-4% of LDS stack any silver or gold.


It's possible... I worked with a Mormon woman at my last job for several years. Not very many of them stack gold and silver. They focus mainly on prepping with supplies instead.

Jul 22, 2013 - 6:37pm

Bali..you do know the vast

Bali..you do know the vast majority of waves there are waves. Funny huh ?


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