Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - 12:34pm

I keep trying to type up this post while at the same time watching The British Open. It's now 10:45 EDT. The British Open is winning.

I don't know why I enjoy watching links golf so much. I think it dates back to when I was a Teenage Turd, ESPN was in its infancy and they used to show old British Open highlights for programming. As an aspiring, young golfer, I found it fascinating. But now it just frustrates me. Why? Eight years ago this fall, my good friend BucketHead (and helluva golfer) died of a brain tumor that I will always blame on his incessant cellphone use. I pledged then that I would soon cross "Golf in Scotland" off of my bucket list. Eight years on and I still haven't pulled it off. Fortunately, I'm still healthy and fit so perhaps next year will be the year. However, the state of the global financial system is far from "healthy". Will The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment continue for another year or is massive change right around the corner? I wish I could say with certainty but I can't. All I can do is prepare...and twist Sweetness' arm for 2014. I need him to come with me so that I can fund my trip with a daily nassau.

I have hope that we are beginning to see a bit of a sea change in gold. Does anyone else sense a "buy the dip" mentality emerging? Since the snapback bounce off of the lows of July 5, gold has been beaten back from $1300 and toward $1270 on three occasions and each of those dips have been bought.

So now here we are, two hours away from closing out our second, consecutive UP week in gold. IF we can hold on...and it looks like we will as we're up about $12 on the week right now...it will set up an interesting week next. Why? As you can see below, since this brutal smashdown scheme began last autumn, gold has never had three, consecutive UP weeks. Would a third week next be a conclusive sign of a bottom? Of course not! It would, however, be another positive signal that we are getting very close. With August13 option expiry next Thursday, anything is possible. Given the overall bearish sentiment and Spec Short market control, there exists a pretty good opportunity for The Cartel to squeeze some of those who have sold the $1300+ calls. We'll see...

There's not much to discuss in silver at this moment. It's still being held below $20 and its chart doesn't look as interesting as gold's. The next bit of excitement will come when price finally encounters the top of the channel again. Can/will it break out or will it simply drop lower again? WTFK but we should get an answer in a week or two.

GOFO rates were stable today but still deeply negative for a record-shattering tenth day in a row. As mentioned above, Aug13 option expiry is next Thursday and FND is on the 31st. The negative GOFO rates and the sharply declining Comex stocks would seem to indicate that the next few weeks are going to be interesting, to say the least. Jesse offers an excellent summation here. I suggest you read it. https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-fall-to-another.html

(Remember, "eligible" or "total" gold is simply the unallocated gold held in the vaults. To be deliverable, the gold must be classified as "registered". As of last evening, total Registered gold at the Comex fell to 29.56 metric tonnes. This is enough gold to physically deliver just 9,504 contracts in August.)

A few words on crude here, which is kickin-ass-and-takin-names, much to the bewilderment of many. For example, there's this complete idiot who somehow achieved contributor status at ZeroHedge. I'm not sure this guy could find his ass with both hands and the recent movement in crude has him all aflutter. https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-18/gasoline-supplies-highest-july-period-1992

Look, this isn't complicated. Since the overthrow of the Egyptian government two weeks ago, crude has risen over $10. Why? The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization of nearly every terrorist group in the MENA. Taking power in Egypt was the culmination of 80+ years of effort. They ain't gonna take their forced removal quietly. Already, a completely overlooked and unreported WAR is taking place in the Sinai Peninsula. If you failed World Geography back in school, you might want to take a look at this map:

Crude is rallying because of realistic fears of supply disruption. Remember, what does one do in a futures market if one is concerned about future supply issues? You hedge and lock in price and delivery today by buying a futures contract. More buyers than sellers mean higher prices. Period. And here we are.

The Big Question is: What happens next? We're already seeing some downside volatility today:

Did President Milhous send out some cronies to plant the predictable rumors of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in a pathetic attempt to talk down price? If not today, they'll try that oft-repeated trick soon, of that you can be certain. Regardless, I've told you for months that there need be no concern over Hot War in the MENA until and unless crude makes a sustained move through $100. Well, here we are. What happens next is anyone's guess but, if crude bursts through the early 2011 highs of $114, watch out! And get your ass out of The Middle East!!

Finally, today, we've got to talk about this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-18/jobs-number-bs-says-former-head-bls.

And here's the source link to read, too: https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/bls_number_is_bs_jaKS2Nc8Yu2TrnETK2bXEM

We talk about LIES and MOPE and SPIN all the time here. Maybe you, my dear reader, think that I'm the one who is full of it. That I'm the one who lies and spins. Well, I submit to you the information above.

Understand this: Keith Hall was, from 2008 to 2012, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS. The Head Honcho. The Big Cheese. If anybody is going to know the inner working of the BLS, it's this guy. And what does he say in the article above? That's it's all bullshit. (Thus the justification for our term "BLSBS".) Hall explains as much right here:

“Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.
The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent."

If the "unemployment rate" was actually reported at 10.6% instead of 7.6%, what would be the status of:

  • The treasury market and interest rates
  • The stock market
  • QE "taper"
  • Milhous' approval rating
  • Congress' approval rating

You see, it's all lies! The actual data doesn't matter, just make up a number and have CNBS report it. It's all good and the music plays a little bit longer. But the Day of Reckoning is coming. Like any other human endeavor, you can lie and cheat your way through life for a while...but eventually it catches up with you and it all comes crashing down. Will The End come next week or next month? Hell, I don't know. If I've learned anything these past four years it's that I should never underestimate the power of TPTB to extend and pretend their way to a maintenance of their power. With the politicians, bureaucrats and media in your corner, you're bound to have temporary success in avoiding reality. But this will end and, when it does, you're going to be grateful for every ounce of physical gold and silver you have in your possession. These last nine months of contrived Bullion Bank scheming will be a long-forgotten memory.

Have a great weekend.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 19, 2013 - 6:20pm

Mad ($!&%%@XX#??#) Hatter

"moving into 3rd by a head over Clown 4th a length ahead of Coupon"

It was 2 lengths ahead. I have it on video.

The Vet zman
Jul 19, 2013 - 6:40pm

What does the JPM gold news really mean

It means that there is still no shortage of paper, and they are still able meet deliveries of really persistent clients (who won't take more paper IOUs) by raiding the GLD stash...

I ran a tick by tick comparison of spot against GLD and it was dead flat all day. No sign that there was a penny to be made by APs on the arbitrage between them and yet they still redeemed GLD shares, paying more for them than the price of spot metal (that assumes of course that there really was metal available at the quoted spot price.... not just more paper.....)

Jul 19, 2013 - 6:43pm

Watching the news tonight

<edit> changed my mind. I'll suffer in silence.

Nick Elway
Jul 19, 2013 - 6:55pm

Dollar collapse before market collapse..Peter Schiff

Here is the article referenced in the SD article kcap was referencing



In response to this week’s conflicting policy statements issued by the Fed, Peter said, “They checked into the ‘Roach Motel’ of monetary policies because they can get in—but there’s no way to get out. So what they do is they bluff. They pretend there is an exit strategy knowing that exit is impossible…they just have to maintain the pretense as long as they can, before the market figures out the true predicament they’re in.”

“No matter what Ben Bernanke says, between now and the time he’s supposed to taper, he will come up with an excuse why he can’t and I think he already knows this. But he can’t let the market know that the whole recovery…is merely a temporary by-product of the QE, and that the minute you remove the QE—we’re right back in recession.”

When asked if continued money printing is setting the stage for an equities market collapse, Peter said, “I think the dollar is going to collapse before the market [does]…The Fed is propping up asset prices by debasing the dollar—the currency with which those asset prices are denominated.”

Jul 19, 2013 - 7:12pm

A really big empty at Chase Plaza

how can anybody be watching golf when JPM's gold inventories have dropped to under 440k ounces??



Dyna mo hum
Jul 19, 2013 - 7:52pm
Jul 19, 2013 - 7:53pm


JakeBlues left in a big huff puff because Turd likes Glenn Beck and JakeBlues does not.

The guy had good analysis on a number of things (COT and 90% prices) but, jeezlouise, one difference of opinion (another example would be the run of mill trial in FL) and people get so bent out of shape.

Present your facts/opinions and move on . . . leaving a blog in such a childish immature manner is uncalled for. my two cents.

Dagney Taggart
Jul 19, 2013 - 7:54pm

For the Golfing Stacker on Everybody's List

That course looks like real golf and for the amount of money those spoiled brats play for, it should be what they play all year. I had a crush on Greg Norman in the late 80's until he became a globalist freak friend of Bill Clinton and a man-whore. Now he sickens me.

Dagney Taggart
Jul 19, 2013 - 8:03pm


Turd, did you fail World Geography? The Sinai Peninsula is part of Egypt yet whoever drew that map represents it as it's own country. Note text. That map is an intentional distortion. I wonder who drew it.

How is Iran supposed to surprise attack Israel again? If Americans only had a clue about real threats they wouldn't have bankrupted themselves on the false illusion of safety.

I smell the Muslim Brotherhood being sold as the new AlQaeda now that the myth is dead.

Jul 19, 2013 - 8:07pm

MSM catching on -- Reuters et al on gold backwardation

via Jesse:

"The Gold Forwards were negative for the tenth straight day. Listen to this, and understand what it means.

In their article about the 'hiccup in gold futures indicates that demand is outstripping supply' for physical bullion Reuters goes on to say:

"A dislocation in the gold futures market indicating that demand for physical delivery of the metal is now far outweighing supply has intensified in recent weeks, increasing concern in the market that the change may not be a momentary blip and participants may have become over-leveraged."

I think this deserves some serious attention. I would not care to be short the metal, and face any requirements to have to deliver on demand. It could prove to be costly."

More from the Reuters piece -- Ned Naylor-Leland gets a quote (!):

"The fact that has remained and widened ... indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid ... and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage," wrote Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in a report this month.

"What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable 'run' on the 100:1 leveraged bullion banking system is truly underway." [...]

"The actual message of the backwardation is that there is behind the curtains a lack of confidence in the fiat monetary system, a de facto rejection of paper money by some people who prefer the real money (gold and silver)," said Guillermo Barba [economist at the New Austrian School of Economics in Mexico].

"That's why a fall or rise in gold prices is not so relevant anymore. The monetary 'fire alarm' message, courtesy of the relationship between spot and futures prices, is: run for your gold, there is not enough for all." [...]

But since January, the short end of the curve has gone into backwardation increasingly earlier and earlier, indicating the trend may soon start to move further out the curve.

The April 2013 futures contract went into backwardation 30 trading days before April 1, while the June contract went into backwardation 42 trading days before June 1. The August contract turned over 55 days before August 1, and the October contract flipped on July 8, 61 trading days before October 1.

Over the short term, some expect backwardation will spark a squeeze on paper investors in the gold market as the physical demand will force traders looking to cover short positions to bid up the spot price in an effort to shore up inventories."

Things just may start getting interesting at some point -- not years out... Or it could be just yet another MSM lure dangled at hapless PM investors. But this feels more like CYA posturing to me.

On the other side of the story, SocGen analyst claims the 'relief rally' has already happened, gold going down further into 2014 (Bloomberg).

Some more thoughts on the eventual extinction of paper gold prices here -- warning, some truly contrarian and truthfully, somewhat bizarre-sounding ideas (i.e. after the inevitable global financial collapse, humans will stop using money, and gold will be worthless as anything other than a high density/conductivity metal) -- but some interesting logic describing HOW we get to collapse. Just reading for the first time, so not an endorsement (TimingLogic @ Salon). I disagree with his conclusion, but think I should learn more about his thesis nevertheless:

"The gold miners in the gold futures markets have seen their hedging positions unwind by 94% in the last nine months. 94%. Unheard of. Fat-tailed distribution. Nonlinear. Without precedence. And those positions were levered to the hilt as were the opposite side of that trade, the long-side, gold financial speculators including Wall Street banks. We are making history as I type this. The gold futures market is exhibiting many behaviors never before seen. Additionally, gold is now in backwardation in the futures market. Something that has seldom happened. Maybe never happened with this type of environment. The downward pressure on future prices of gold is very intense because of this massive speculative unwinding. There may be other factors, or maybe not, but let’s stick with known facts rather than some paranoid conspiracy theory ungrounded in any facts. So, it doesn’t matter how much gold China or Russia’s central banks have been buying because the un-levering of hundreds of times of leverage in the futures market is driving the price of physical gold lower. [...]

(I have noted many times on here that the price of gold is a proxy for liquidity. That it is now collapsing is a sign that money is draining out of the global economy at a faster rate than 2008’s collapse, as noted on here many times over the last year. ) [...]

As a reminder I have written for years that I expect the U.S. to default or monetize much of its debts and that 2013 was my estimate for such an act. We still have six more months of a world deteriorating very rapidly. I could make an argument that 2013 is the most important turn date in the last 4,000-5,000-odd years but regardless, we shall witness whatever happens together. (I’ll share a little more about this later.)"

Dagney Taggart
Jul 19, 2013 - 8:07pm


Watch a see what happens when all the foreign-held USD come flooding home (like a well-deserved tsunami) by October.

Jul 19, 2013 - 8:47pm


1-1-13 1-1-12 1-1-11 1-1-10

1681 1590 1405 1113 Gold

30.85 28.78* 30.67 17.15 Silver

*Silver is more volatile, and missed a higher high yearly closed by 6%

Currently 1296 and 19.52 at mid 2013.

Bull has in deed been stressed, and 400$ rise in Gold and 12$ Rise in Silver,

is desired by close 2013, to keep the bull alive on paper price action.

With JPM long Gold and Long Silver, Hoarding Silver and Tapped out in Gold,

the stage is set for a huge rally in bullion, to ride the bull to the closing bell.

next post:

Along the scenic California coast, is a small town of about 12K people, Laguna Beach, an old artist commune of years gone by, but now with a main beach, and on Broadway where vacationers stop for the world famous Pageant of the Masters, showing a series of famous historical paintings, hugely enlarged, with motionless live human characters disposed thereon, a sight to see, as well as the foreign girls in swim out fits at the beach, from all over the world, whereat, main beach is circumscribed by a boardwalk with benches, not 40 feet from the ocean, for the breath taking sunsets and girls on display, but, juxtapose one of those benches, is a sign that reads: Warning Tsumani Area, and have always thought that it was a stupid sign, as the ocean is right in front of your face, duh, but now I get it, I really get it, the bucks will come flowing ashore and kill many in absolute inflationary devastation.

M5H sound like code for a British spy. :o

Johnny Rivers - Secret Agent Man

Goldfinger - Theme Song
James Bond 007 Movie Theme Music

but more like ...

The Pink Panther Theme Song (Original Version)

when the boys leave left overs on the plate and go out to play. ;)

Jul 19, 2013 - 8:49pm

If gold supression gets you down

have a listen.

The Bernank's theme song.

Video unavailable
Jul 19, 2013 - 9:04pm


Speaking of peter schiff, has anyone read this yet?


The Powerful Case For Silver

Peter Schiff Euro Pacific Precious Metals
Posted Jul 19, 2013

I am a well-known "gold bug" because of my strongly voiced opinion that gold has been one of the best assets for protecting yourself from the US dollar's prolonged decline.

Lately, the precious metals have taken a beating, and I've been called to defend gold's future prospects in the media countless times. While I am confident that gold will rebound with a vengeance before long, I think investors are potentially missing an even greater opportunity in that other monetary metal: silver.

To address this oversight, I have compiled a special report called The Powerful Case for Silver, which is available at www.schiffsilver.com. This 14-page report contains in-depth analysis of what I believe to be the strongest arguments for owning the white metal. What follows is a general overview of the key arguments I make in the report.

The People's Money


Jul 19, 2013 - 10:42pm

Anecdotal Report

My Private Banker at a major Bullion Bank, which shall remain nameless, called me to suggest that I should sell some of my allocated Bullion (Held elsewhere) because the Bank fears that Gold is still going down again to $1,000 or below. I thanked him kindly for the "Heads up" but decided to take my chances and stay with it. Smells of more "Muppetology"!!

I have never had such a call before, including throughout the long decline so far and it does again suggest that the Banksters are desperately short of physical Gold.

Jul 19, 2013 - 10:54pm

Criminal fuckers.

Criminal fuckers.

Northern Border
Jul 19, 2013 - 11:03pm

Force Manure Immenent ????

I know everyone here is a zerohedge junkie such as myself. Heck, That is how I found Turds site when he first formed it many moons ago.

Anywho, I wont post the link because I know someone else has or will but JPM lost 66% of there total gold in 1 day ???????

Force Manure ! Force Manure ! Force Manure !!!

Get your rain coats on !


Jul 19, 2013 - 11:07pm


Good report and I share your view that "It just feels different" now. Agreed that a retest of the bottom, to make a double botton is still possible, although arguably the 1180 and 1230 pullbacks were a double bottom?

But another pullback seems unlikely, especially when taken together with the GOFO situation and The Comex/JPM inventory lows? I also thought that after hours move up, on a Friday of all days, was significant and suggests that somebody knows something heading into the weekend. The Sunday night Globex might be interesting but in recent weeks Globex trade has actually been to the upside, before getting pushed down in London and then back UP again on Comex. These are not patterns we have become used to over the last year.

Jul 19, 2013 - 11:26pm


USA Political Players and Apparatchiks

snip ...

to come soon

Awaiting an IRS response, unemployed 4 years and still engaged.

But, until then, let me lay this on you all.

There is the recent scandal over the IRS targeting political enemies of the administration. Well, I have been led to believe that all the people in certain Zip codes are audited every year, as part of the IRS thuggery assaults regularly taking place each year. It needs to end, the thuggery, the spying, the witch hunts, the political assaults of the IRS, and change the tax base from an income tax to a national pay-and-forget consumption sales tax, and get the IRS foul play and thuggery out of people lives, so they can live in freedom, as well and promote real green peace.


turd quick, change the f to Ph,

cant use the f word twice in a week. That's double dribble ....

Mel & Tim Backfield In Motion (1969)

Video unavailable

OK, that does it. Im putting TF on Moderation.

Dyna mo hum
Jul 19, 2013 - 11:53pm

Perspective is everything

Is the Universe Infinite?
Just A Regular Guy
Jul 20, 2013 - 12:38am

Hey turd, quick question...

Just wondering how I can delete images i've uploaded to the server? (yes I am r-tarded).

Wanted to waste some of your space/time with snaps of my whisky collection. Then maybe tomorrow i'll do the Australian XGD stuff.


Jul 20, 2013 - 12:56am

Several things.....

Hey all got some thoughts here,

Who is to say tapering won't occur until after QE is raised higher?

Since AXU Alexco was just downgraded, why wouldn't you think that other miners wouldn't be downgraded as well? Anyone? Name them. I know there are others I am missing. Will there be more? Won't this cause a further collapse in miners?

Remember the margin calls!

I still say the worse is yet to come. Market crash. Miners/gold crash.

Santa says the dollar will go lower. Yes in the future. But in the short term it has to go higher on Europe, as to make the dollar look better, as to make interest rates go down, as to make PMs go down. That means a market meltdown. It is coming! Beware!



Jul 20, 2013 - 1:13am

Stetchy gold

All, I found this an interesting article, in the tech-savvy site Gizmodo.


Heart of gold anyone? New and unique industrial/medical uses for gold? Bring it on.

Jul 20, 2013 - 1:54am


We are all entitled to our opinions and nobody has a crystal ball. Time alone will tell.

It has, however, always been my belief that IF the Fed does indeed taper (Which is now already priced into Gold), it is the bubbles that the Fed has inflated (Mainly Bonds and Equities) that will burst first. PM's performance over the last year very definitely does not fall into that category and, therefore, should outperform as investors look for a place to hide.

Jul 20, 2013 - 3:36am

The Void

I was thinking, yeah, I do that every now and then.

Before the big bang, there were no mass particles or light photons, and hence no gravity fields, no light, no space-time dimensions, it was a void. Then comes the big bang, from an infinitely small singularity, and creation of mass ejections, and light waves that started therefrom, propagating spherically outward, and as the mass and light propagated, it transformed the dimensionless void into space that is, having the time-space dimensions, having an outer space-time event horizon that propagated outward at light speed. Thus, the universe as we know it, but some where out there, beyond the stars, is the timeless dimensionless void. Question pondered was how do we detect the void or that void space-time event horizon moving away from us at light speed? .

meh, thats heavy. And if aggregate gravity fields sufficient, and the universe expansion slows down and stops expanding and begins to implode, it would necessarily bring the space-time void event horizon towards that singularity formed again, in an endless cycle back to expansion of the universe, between periodic singularity formations, man has endless struggles, and hence, only during the implosion, could the space-time event horizon be detected.

Oh meh, .... Yeap, time will tell

The Chambers Brothers - Time Has Come Today
Roger Rocker
Jul 20, 2013 - 3:48am


What does a void have to do with silver?

I better read enuma elish again. I might have missed something.

Big Bang indeed!


Jul 20, 2013 - 4:20am

Stetchy = Stretchy

And I wasn't even drunk! LOL. Then.

Jul 20, 2013 - 5:23am

silver manipulation algo moved to shanghai?

shanghai started gold/silver futures night session on July 5th to match Comex day session.

someone or a group of trader dump a lot of fresh shorts in the first hour or so every night and cover them throughout the rest of the session and sometimes into next day's. rinse and repeat every day since July 5th.

well, if someone dumps hundreds of tons of paper silver in one hour one, price will drop or be capped based on supply and demand.

this systematic trading pattern is totally absent from the day session.

shanghai silver futures' trading volume far exceeds Comex now.

chinese on average only holds about 1/50 of an ounce of silver bullion vs about 1 ounce for the americans based on the total amount of silver eagle and old silver coin.

it's impossible for the chinese to ever catch up with the americans in terms of silver holding before the big reset.

silver is the new gold in this sense.

Jul 20, 2013 - 6:50am

Interesting - Is This The Final Straw

We have seen so much news recently and many stories. When they are knitted together point to a picture where the dollar will be supplanted as the world’s reserve currency and where gold will play some sort of role. Even looking at the gold market from different angles gives you signs that something is definitely in the works.


Jul 20, 2013 - 7:05am

short squeeze?

Futures speculators have responded to this year’s extreme bearishness plaguing gold by amassing wildly-outlying record short positions in it. These huge and highly-leveraged bets can only be unwound by buying gold futures to cover the shorts. As gold continues rebounding out of its recent hyper-oversold lows, the futures traders on the short side will have to buy. This will likely fuel a massive short squeeze.



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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs

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