Greetings From Vacation

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:48am

Desperate times call for desperate getting up early to write a post, even while technically "on vacation".

First of all, watching the sun rise is a tonic that I would recommend for just about everyone during this current period of metal strife. There is no better reminder of the long-term view than taking a moment to appreciate the beauty and the majesty of a sunrise. The planet was here for billions of years before us and it will remain for billions of years after we're gone. Though the stress of each day can be great, in the grand scheme of things, daily events are nothing but the tick of an infinite clock.

I mention this not because I'm trying to be philosophic. I do so as a reminder of The Big Picture. Below are the reasons I hold physical precious metal:

  • Physical gold and silver are my "monetary insurance" against the eventual collapse of the current global, fiat money economic economic scheme.
  • Physical gold and silver will provide me a tool for barter should some type of natural or man-made disaster render paper money useless or unavailable.
  • Physical gold and silver are stores of wealth and true money, recognized as such for millenia before the current system arose and they will be recognized as such after the current system fails.

With this as my mental basis, why on earth would I be selling now?

And just who is selling now? Is there any physical metal for sale? Andy confirms that there are no physical sales in London. Just paper sales and physical purchases. Walk down to your local coin shop and ask the proprietor if there are more sellers or more buyers. My suspicion is that the buyers still greatly outnumber the sellers.

So why has price fallen this far? It's quite simple, really. The paper markets and, specifically, the HFT WOPRs which dominate them, are in control. Because of the leverage and rehypothecation, the futures markets are now fully disconnected from physical reality. This is fine. It happens from time to time and it can continue for a while but it can't continue indefinitely. Why? Read the excellent work of SRSrocco or the recent posts on ZH about the cost of production. Eventually, as producers of the physical commodity realize that continued mining is a losing proposition, they wisely halt production. Tight supply lines grow even tighter and, eventually, the laws of supply and demand reassert themselves.

Does this mean that silver will immediately head back to $49. Probably not. But it does mean that it's not headed to $8, either. (And, as an aside, I should point out here that silver was $18 in August of 2010 before rising to $49 in April of 2011 so it's not like it hasn't happened before.)

I am of the firm belief and conviction that The Price Bottom to all of this nonsense is within sight. Though gold has exceeded my low target of $1270-1290 and now rests near $1230, I'm buying it with confidence. Recall that when silver broke $22, I warned you that $18 was now likely with a possibility of an overshoot toward $16. With this in mind, why panic now? What has changed and what has been fixed? Anything? Or have the WOPRs so distorted the supply/demand fundamental that price does not currently reflect reality?

Tomorrow we will get an updated CoT report that will likely reveal Commercial positions of historic proportions. I know you're probably sick of hearing it...but I can't stress enough how critical this is to understanding the current price structure. QE∞ changed everything and, after years of fighting it and selling into rising prices and covering on dips, The Bullion Banks made the dramatic shift last fall. They began this current, counter-intuitive slide as an attempt to flatten their books and get out from under their massive naked short metal positions. As of this next CoT report, we will likely find that they have nearly accomplished just that. When they are done, price will be free to run.

As I conclude, I see that a fog has rolled in that conceals what had been a beautiful view. The locals tell me that this is a regular occurrence and that it will soon lift to reveal yet another beautiful day. Similarly, a fog has descended upon the metals markets and it is obstructing your view. I can assure you, though, that this fog too will soon lift and a new day will emerge, beautiful and bright, and when it does, your physical metal will have you prepared for all that the world has to offer.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 27, 2013 - 10:45pm

@Gandalf . . . diversification . . .

is a product of modern portfolio theory. That theory is going to get blown out of the water when the dollar goes to its unbacked, intrinsic value.

Carnegie said his words when money was gold and the dollar was as good as gold. We will be going back to those days again. Diversification will not be a help, but a hindrance.

Jun 27, 2013 - 10:49pm

Funny dog pictures…

…okay everybody - lighten up.

Maybe some more funny dog pictures will help.

This hardly even looks like a dog.

Woof woof - glub.

Spartacus Rex
Jun 27, 2013 - 10:49pm

GGR: Chart of the Week – GLD Metal Holdings

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Chart of the Week – GLD Metal Holdings

Reported metal holdings at SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), the largest gold exchange traded fund, reflect significant negative money flow since December, 2012. So-called hot money, investors, portfolio managers and hedge funds have apparently bought in, hook, line and sinker, to the notion that the world’s largest central banks printing oceans of new fiat currency units has “saved the global economy,” lessening the apparent need to hold gold as portfolio insurance.

If only that were true – that increasing debt in huge amounts by printing money solves a problem of too much government debt in the global economic engine. We could just print up millions for everyone and people would die of happiness. (Sarcasm.)

Specifically, from December 10, 2012 to June 26, 2013, GLD metal holdings declined 383.85 metric tonnes (about 28%) from a record high 1,353.35 tonnes to 969.50 tonnes. (Down 12.3 million ounces troy, from 43.5 million oz. to 31.2 million oz.) For the same period gold fell $476 or 28% from $1,712 to $1,236 basis the London PM fix.

Metal reductions reflect negative money flow, more selling pressure than buying pressure, which causes the trust's authorized participants to redeem shares and sell gold into the market in order to keep the GLD share price in line with the spot price of gold.

For longer term context, the large net reduction in GLD metal holdings shows in the longer term chart below.

(Source: GLD)

GLD has seen extended periods of both negative and positive money flow. For comparison, from September 16, 2008 to June 22, 2009 (about 9 months) GLD gold holdings increased by about 519 tonnes or 85% from roughly 614 to 1,134 tonnes held. (Period visible in the graph above.)

Gold or Cash to Preserve Purchasing Power?

Consider that the world’s central banks can, with a few keystrokes, print all the new currency they want to buy gold. But not even one of the central banks can print even one ounce of gold with their magic computers.

Posted by Gene Arensberg at

Jun 27, 2013 - 10:53pm

What causes people to be labeled trolls…

… probably isn't having negative opinions. It's a combination of being new AND having negative opinions, or, only ever having negative opinions.

I could probably spew a rant about how awful and what a waste of time PM's are, and most would go "eh, he's just having a bad day", because I've been here a long time and generally keep quiet and or, post something vaguely odd every once in a while.

If I was new, though, and did the same thing, I would probably get a 'troll' label in short order.

Fair or not, that's the way it is.

Hunt brother
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:02pm

Hammering gold monkey or steam room guy?

I am trying to decide who is more stupid....

a) the guy who went into the steam room at the gym today. The weather outside was 100 degrees and humid.

b) the guy who shorted gold at 1190 after the miners and silver bounced higher.

gandalf ancientmoney
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:03pm

Carnegie . . .

. . . was one of the richest men in the world in his day, who controlled vast industrial power. His statement was made from the tip top of the economic pyramid. He was not a middle or lower class guy with a day job, who has to invest for his kids' college, a more comfortable future, and a decent retirement, like the vast bulk of us. Your question was thus intellectually dishonest. But here's an honest question for you: For the middle or lower class guy with a day job, who has to invest for his kid's college, a more comfortable future, and a decent retirement, should he diversify his investment portfolio, or is it wise to put all his eggs in PMs?

Jun 27, 2013 - 11:05pm


Well said. I have never put so many in so short a time. Actually I am kinda pissed that when you IU someone it sends you back to page one of the thread.

Hammer- Nice post about insurance. On a personal note I was reviewing one of my term life policies just today. It's for 500,000. It was a 15 year policy with three years to run at $800 per year. I asked them what are my options when it runs out. They said I can renew it for one year at $11,000 per year!

I figure now that the kids are done with school I can live (ha ha) with less insurance. If the insurance company is willing to only charge me $800 a year for the next few years my chances of kicking the bucket are slim. I will be canceling it shortly.

Jun 27, 2013 - 11:09pm

The good news, bad news, and wtf?

A mixed picture for the thesis of investing in the metals:

The good news: Does this look like a deflationary wave?

The bad news: Runaway inflation isn't here yet:

And WTF?: No idea what accounts for this unbelievable spike in shipping traffic when the anecdotal data says the economy is falling off the rails:

Green Lantern
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:12pm

What's with the metals

What's with the metals community and this overt cat racism. It's not all about dogs and pork. Cats are people too

And this should eliminate the idea's that cats and water don't have an intimate relationship

Video unavailable
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:20pm

Funny as nowt else.

Gandalf: Folk are stupid for putting all eggs in one basket. Yes but you would probably buy the biggest house you could afford right? Max everything on credit cards.... Cos houses always go up and jobs can always be found.

The folk who come on this site regularly are the cream of the crop. Why? because unlike the rest of the smucks out there who are under water, these good people are a strange breed. They save more than they consume and they save for their futures.

Yet they are not congress and all those types. No, you pizza eaters, these folk are deep thinking winners, they prove it because they have wealth in a world that is broke.

It is easy to sit on the sidelines and say nothing yet to come out and crow is nothing short of an insecure tit in the schoolyard.

It also show complete lack of depth of understanding of the real issues. Good posts lantern rex otthers.

Jun 27, 2013 - 11:28pm

Harvey's Up!

GoldCore: There has been a massive increase in silver demand in India in recent months and the government's meddling and controls in the gold market will likely led to even more demand for silver. • DS: The banks dumped massive naked shorts onto the market in thin trading. Asia is having money problems due to their banks being broke. Traders could not get funding to buy the dip, and the dip triggered stop losses initiating an avalanche effect. Some others had to sell to meet margin calls. Sounds like 2008 all over again. • GoldCore: India's ban on coin and bar sales this has caused a lot of concern among the public as they stand to lose out due to the very high premiums on jewellery versus those on coins and bars. • GoldCore: Another unintended consequence of the Indian government’s extremely anti gold policies will be the growth of smuggling and a black market in gold. Ironically, it may also lead to Indian people, particularly the wealthier middle classes and high net worth Indians to store their bullion in safe jurisdictions which treat gold favourably such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Zurich. In a worst case scenario, it could lead to capital flight. • Zero Hedge: the marginal cost of production of gold (90% percentile) in 2013 was estimated at $1300 including capex. Which means that as of a few days ago, gold is now trading well below not only the cash cost, but is rapidly approaching the marginal cash cost of $1104. Bill Holter: We are now at the end of the road. governments and central banks are broke and broken. Gold and Silver prices have been "manufactured", they are not a product of free market pricing. If they were they would be multiples of what are now. • Bill Holter: Monday we woke up to stories of the Chinese banking system in a seizure mode. Were that to have spread into what I have called a "banking holiday", how would you feel if you had sold your Gold at $1,600 and had already rebought at the then price of $1,380 or so last Friday and your "check was in the mail" to the dealer? Pretty nifty huh, you scalped almost $300 out of the trade...but wait, China happened and your check doesn't clear and the metal doesn't arrive...uh oh! Do you see? I don't know when, Sinclair nor any of the Gold bulls know when something like this is going to happen but we fully believe that it will. • Eric King: We have a remarkable 67% less silver bulls than at the peak in 2011, and 60% less gold bulls. Moreover, sentiment is much worse than it was at the bottom in 2008. John Hathaway: "The physical markets are a complete disconnect with the paper markets. The demand in Asia, as evidenced by the premiums for physical gold, are at record levels. There is a shortage in the physical markets and the paper markets are very short." All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!


Jun 27, 2013 - 11:28pm


Diversification is a product of modern portfolio theory. That theory is going to get blown out of the water when the dollar goes to its unbacked, intrinsic value.

Carnegie said his words when money was gold and the dollar was as good as gold. We will be going back to those days again. Diversification will not be a help, but a hindrance.

Diversification could be either a help or hindrance. If by using diversification enables you use profits from strong performing part of portfolio and add those profits to weak performing part (gold), to the point where you would have more gold when you needed it than if you just bought all the gold you could at once and added more when you could than diversification would be better. If it didn’t it would be worse.

Diversification also helps if/when you need to sell some investment/insurance assets for unforeseen events. You can grab what you need from best performing asset, where as if this happened with no diversification and asset was at bottom of cycle it would hurt.

I guess all depends on how soon you need your gold, and what price you bought first initial large bulk (saving money to not buy all at once is also diversification).

Jun 27, 2013 - 11:40pm

My Dear Extended Family,

My Dear Extended Family,

Russia takes the lead in anti manipulative gold actions. Russia also marks its gold inventory toy market price. They have to be very unhappy with the gold banks and the US Fed.

War takes many forms and gold is outright war.

China will follow with a physical bullion exchange. This is dynamite for the real discovery of the price of gold and silver free from no-gold, no-silver fraudulent paper exchanges.

The Russians are going to launch a cash bullion market. Maybe they know what the Fed has done to one of their major's assets and now intend to bust the manipulative paper game.

This mechanism will go a long way towards the emancipation of gold from paper.

Safety is in the Brics or quasi Brics for the next 3 years or more.

Moscow exchange launches precious metals trading Published time: June 27, 2013 12:49

The stock exchange is going to start trading gold and silver by the end of this year, and platinum and palladium in 2014. Trading physical metals is expected to boost liquidity in the market and attract more participants.

Russia has so far only been trading futures on gold and silver, not dealing with real metals.

Gold has been occasionally sold on the over-the-counter market and the only benchmark for price was the Central bank's quotations, reports. Now gold will get the market price in rubles.

"We are a gold-exporting country. We produce a large number of precious metals. However, the trade volume is still significantly lagging behind our peers. Our commodity market is not transparent," quotes the director of the commodity market of the Moscow exchange, Mikhail Orlenko.


Gold Dog
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:46pm

Pizza Eaters!

Having jumped into the middle of a few comments about-

"Oh My, you must just feel terrible. I sooo much feel your pain! How could you have gotten yourself in such a tough place?" etc. From some Pizza Eater who has been around for two months and starts spewing that same saccharin sweet "concern" for all of us obviously less intelligent people that Lapping Dip did is pretty transparent as fulfilling some emotional hole in the Eaters soul.

Then after I and many many others refered to PM's as insurance since day one around here, and trying to be compassionate when one of the regulars gets a little too far out over his ski tips only to be interrupted by condescending ass-hats who accuse the veterans of saying we use it as insurance after the fact to "cover up" the fact that we all thought we were going to be Bill Gates just chaps my ass.

It's like the Judge who said "I can't define pornography, but I know it when I see it."

I can't define a Pizza Eater, but I sure as hell know one when I see him!

Newcomers that actually want to learn are welcome in my book. I will go out of my way to share what little I know.

Newcomers that show up because they have some emotional need to fuck with people's heads are trolls and should be excised by our fine community.

Everyone is allowed to have their own opinion and I welcome arguments saying metals are going up, I welcome arguments that say metals are going down, I welcome arguments that say that metals are going sideways.

I do not welcome sadistic fools!

Get lost you Pizza Eating Cheeseballs!!!

Your friend,


Jun 27, 2013 - 11:54pm

Looked at BDI over last few weeks....

noticed same. Looked at it multiple times to note "seasonal" patterns that appear......even with reduced traffic overall. Noticed uptick to break ma's and made mental note to monitor. Would major changes in fiat valuations(ie Japan) create opportunity/necessity to outsource component manufacturing differently, which would affect traffic volume? One possibility.

lnardozi Adman
Jun 27, 2013 - 11:57pm

Wow - how can you be here?

And be so COMPLETELY ignorant? Perhaps you've never heard of a little thing called counterparty risk? You're not the least bit worried everything will go POOF in the near future, leaving you Cyprused? This comes from being SO sure you've made the right stock, bond or whatever picks. Let me tell you something, the surer you are, the blinder you are to possible risk. Commodities are the ONLY thing with ZERO counterparty risk. I'm not talking paper gold, I'm talking a stack in your basement, or a silo full of wheat. What you have, WILL have value - even when no one else will give you a penny. PMs aren't about profit and never have been - it's about not having to watch your family starve to death in front of you.

Jun 28, 2013 - 12:11am


Pizza Eaters! LMAO!

You nailed it again GL. +1000

Jun 28, 2013 - 12:15am

Life Insurance Coincidence

@ murphy: I had a small (in old values) whole life policy that was costing me $3000 a year. There was a cash value BUT I could see that over 10 or 15 years the worth of it was probably negative. I was lead into this by a smooth operator. Reading and learning from this site made me a better operator. Now the $3000 is going to somePMthing better. I was glad to see and read your take.

Jun 28, 2013 - 12:53am

Gold Bottom Right Now

Gold hit 1915 at the peak. In the night it touched 1180.

The first Fibonacci retracement level is 0.618 * 1915 = 1183

Nobody is calling to load up the truck anymore, which is why this is in fact the moment to do it. If you have any cash left, Buy Buy Buy

Spartacus Rex
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:04am
Gold Dog
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:09am

Egg baskets

There are so many variables that sweeping generalizations usually shrivel under the lights.

A few quick thoughts.

Over the long haul some of my best results were from taking the time to search out good individual stocks. Revenue and earnings growth, stable management that weren't cooking the books for bonus purposes, increasing dividends, etc. and then just sitting still for a long time.

I have also had good results by picking out a mediocre stock with a high beta and watching it like a hawk. Going long and short at various turning points in the cycle. For example, a couple of us worked Abbott between low 40's and low to mid 50's for a couple of years. If my memory serves me it would have been mid 2008 until sometime in 2011. <---Not saying ABT was mediocre in any way....more of a channel trade. (Domtar is a better example of an iffy stock that was very good to me from around 1988 through roughly 1998. Long and short from about$2.00 to around $7.00. Probably 30 or 40 trades in that time.)

A lot of people, including me, just park their money in one of the indexes if nothing else is going on that feels right, and the talking heads seem to think that's OK too.

So, I guess my point is that you can be a successful investor using a number of different methods.

Some day when I have a lot of extra time I can share the hair-brained decisions that cost me an arm and a leg!

Regarding the FSB and Bail-ins. As most of you know, the pieces are in place to have depositors here in the States become general creditors of the banks, putting us pretty low on the totem pole for recovering our money if the bank goes tapioca.

A BIG SHOUT-OUT TO URBAN ROMAN for coming up with Treasury Direct. The deal is you park your cash in the Belly of the Beast and your T-Bills are registered in your name, no banking or broker risk between you and your fiat.

If your regular bank goes down you aren't on the hook. If you use the automatic reinvestment option you can just keep rolling your cash over and they won't send it back until you ask them to.

I will be setting up accounts for my company and myself early next week....I spoke to them on the phone and they will take C-Corps, Sub-S Corps, Trusts, LLC's, etc.

Goodnight my Friends,


EDIT- I know that this is at least the second time I have posted about Treasury Direct. I find it to be such a great solution to a problem that's been bugging me for quite some time that I want to make sure that all Turdites get a chance to be made aware of it. I will likely post a couple of more times about it but for common courtesy will announce it in the subject line so those of you that know about it can just scroll on by.

Jun 28, 2013 - 1:11am

Well this is fun

A game of identify that.........................................................................................rifle!

Spartacus Rex
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:15am

Gold rush as Lao prices drop

Vientiane (Vientiane Times/ANN) - The recent drop in gold prices on the Lao market has brought buyers out in droves to purchase gold jewellery while it remains cheap.

According to gold shops in Vientiane, sale prices yesterday were at 5,060,000 kip (US$655) per baht-weight for gold jewellery - down about 500,000 kip per baht-weight on previous months.

Buying prices yesterday closed at 4,812,500 kip per baht-weight.

On world markets, gold prices in New York fell by 6.9 per cent or US$87.80 to US$1,286.20 per ounce on June 20.

Meanwhile on the Hong Kong exchange, prices fell to US$1,290.20 per ounce from US$1,336.80 per ounce on June 21.

According to gold traders, large numbers of buyers have visited gold shops in Vientiane to purchase gold jewellery and bars as an investment.

Some shops at the Talatsao Mall were stripped bare of all of their wares as a result of the gold rush.

MORE ABOUT THE STORY Bank warns of counterfeit cash in Laos

Gold Dog
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:19am

Do you think it's....

...irresponsable to try to wait for an 11 handle on gold?

My trigger finger is starting to itch!



PS- A lot of gold is nice......some more would be even nicer!

Spartacus Rex
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:19am

Tonnes of Gold Removed From the Major ETFs & COMEX Since Jan. 1

Considering the theory that the purpose of this market operation was designed to take the price of gold lower since the first of the year, and to free up bullion to relieve certain stresses in delivery, I was wondering if we could quantify the results of it in any way.

With the help of Nick at, the keeper of records and master of charts, I was able to calculate the approximate number of tonnes of inventory that were released into the market, or some private storage area perhaps, from the top funds and exchanges in the western world. The time period is from the beginning of this year through 26 June.

If this is correct, and the hypothesis is correct, then it is 'mission accomplished.'

There should be no excuses for not delivering Germany's gold. And plenty of other bullion has been made available to solve those other pesky failures to deliver that seemed to be cropping up.

So one may presume that the bullion is in the mail to its rightful owners, in care of the Herr Weidmann at the Deutsche Bundesbank. The NY Fed sends its special regards. Ich liebe dich.

Unless of course it has been rehypothecated to those barbarian buyers in Asia and the Mideast, yet again.

C'est la guerre des monnaies. Quelle dommage!

I have also included Nick's personal wave count for gold and silver, although I am not an adherent to the waves theory per se. And his long term confidence range for the gold bull market.

The stars seem to be aligning, with perhaps a few more antics and end of quarter shenanigans. But boys will be boys, and they can't keep their hands off their toys. So who can say what will happen next. How about another round of bailouts?

Gent gandalf
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:21am

@Gandalf . . . diversification . . .

As much as the majority of posters/regulars here at TFMR are pm bugs, don't assume that our portfolios are total pms

Secondly re: Andrew Carnegie....

He was, for the most part, a middle class guy before he got rich

How did he get to his pinnacle? ... With EVERYTHING he had in ONE BASKET ... That basket was very heavy 'cause the one thing it held was -- STEEL

Gold Dog
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:25am


Is there a rifle too?

I better take another, closer look!


EDIT- She shouldn't point that thing unless she intends to use it!

Good night....this time I mean it.

Spartacus Rex
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:26am

LOL, Right! Bank of England To People: Work HARDER!

Millions told they will have to work longer or cut spending to pay the mortgage

Millions of homeowners have been warned they will have to work longer hours, or cut spending, to be able to pay the mortgage when interest rates start to rise.

A quarter of the estimated 11.2 million mortgage holders in the country is on interest only deals Photo: PA

10:00PM BST 26 Jun 2013


In a bleak warning, the Bank of England warned that just a small rise in rates from the current 0.5 to 1.5 per cent could cause significant levels of "borrower distress" and yet more bank losses.

A rise to 2.5 per cent could force households holding 20 per cent of Britain's £1.3 trillion of mortgage debt to take some kind of action to keep up with repayments.

This could include "cutting essential spending, earning more income or changing mortgage".

The Bank's comments came in its latest Financial Stability Report, which said that last year, almost a fifth of mortgage holders had less than £200 of disposable income a month.

A one per cent increase in interest rates would push repayments on a £100,000 mortgage up by more than £60 a month.

Spartacus Rex
Jun 28, 2013 - 1:30am

Hey Gold Dog. What, Worried The Fiat Well Will Dry Up?

Average IN @ whatever ratio makes you comfortable, lest it suddenly snap back, and you feel like kicking yourself!

Jun 28, 2013 - 1:34am

up your arse

Watch Celente call Newt a crossdresser! LMAO

Video unavailable


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
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