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Time For A Break

613
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 10:58am

You know how they say that dogs can sense an impending earthquake? Don't you kind of feel that way these days? I know I do.

First, it seems that everything is down. Stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Every currency. If there's a market for it, it's being sold. The only thing that is consistently rising this past week is The Pig. And once those dollars are bought, where are they going? Apparently nowhere. Very strange. Almost ominous.

Then you've got very knowledgeable folks like Bill Holter at MilesFranklin blaring the alarm with columns like this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-great-unwind-has-finally-arrived and this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-button-has-been-pushed-ready-or-not

We've got Santa, who is clearly very, very nervous. He's practically begging you to meet him somewhere for a discussion: https://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/24/chicago-vancouver-and-scottsdale-qa-session-tickets-still-available/ And he keeps posting messages urging you to Get Out of The System (GOTS) as quickly as possible. Just yesterday, he linked two articles which you really do need to take some time to consider:

https://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2013-Global-systemic-crisis-II-second-devastating-explosion-social_a14266.html &

https://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/u-s-banks-crisis-plan-fed/

There are items such as this, which I found at ZeroHedge: https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/mid-year-digest/

And Chris Martenson, who I know to be a very wise and sober fellow, got into the act, too: https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/82210/everything-being-sold

So here we are. Look, I don't know if the financial world is ending this week or next or even this year, but I do know that the current system is unsustainable. To that end, your only financial protection is the physical possession of gold and silver. Not paper derivatives. Not ETFs. Not a basket of mining stocks. Physical metal, in your own two hands.

For those of you upset about the current, eight-month decline of fiat-conversion value, I'm sorry. If having gold and silver consistently move higher in terms of dollars would make you feel more comfortable, I regret that that hasn't happened for you. If you are sitting upon unrealized losses which makes you feel uncomfortable, I apologize and I wish I could make it different for you. But I can't.

However, you need to remember that we live in extraordinary times. Those spouting disinformation about the future price of gold are either hopelessly misinformed or deliberately trying to mislead you. The global forces at work behind the scenes have been in control and remain in control of the paper metal market. The past eight months have been a coordinated effort to crush price, thereby freeing physical for immediate delivery and allowing The Bullion Banks to cover paper short positions, transferring the future risk and liability to the Specs. This has now been accomplished and I firmly believe that we are very near a price bottom.

One day, very soon, paper price will reverse and head higher. Then, one day in the future, paper price will no longer exist as price resets multiples higher with the emergence of a new global financial paradigm. Please understand: THIS IS NOT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR "PROFIT". This is simply an opportunity to protect and defend all that you have accumulated to this point in your life.

To that end and to personally prepare, I'm going to be taking a few days off. Over the next two weeks, I'll still post from time to time but I'll also be sharing some "guest posts" from a handful of your favorite site regulars. Then, come next month, I plan to make a few changes to the way we do things around here. Nothing earth-shattering but necessary changes, nonetheless.

In the meantime, stay alert. Now is not the time to be complacent. Trust your instincts and use your brain. Double-check that you have acquired enough physical metal and consider buying even more. The End of The Great Keynesian is upon us. Please continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  613 Comments

chicagomark66 · Jun 26, 2013 - 12:37pm

As much as watching the value of my physical silver holdings continue to collapse hurts to the bone, what hurts just as much, if not more, it that I now question my convictions. It makes me sick to see the stock market enjoy so much success while metals get killed. The idea that the simple minded "buy stocks" morons on CNBC are right and all of our analysis about how QE will drive metals up due to inflation and dollar weakness is wrong is too much to bare.

Personally, I'm coming to the conclusion that the PM markets aren't broken like people say. There seems to be plenty of metal to buy at $19. If silver/gold are going higher, they need a catalyst. We need more people buying than selling, which we don't have at the moment.

· Jun 26, 2013 - 1:00pm

But we are witnessing history.

In some regards, Tmos is correct. A total disconnect of paper futures from physical reality is taking place. Econ 101 is playing out in real time.

Be patient. No one said this would be easy. We are witnessing the death throes of the LBMA/Comex rehypothecated paper mechanism. It either dies here and physical reality sets in OR paper price rallies and rebounds sharply higher. 

Now back to my vacation...

let it shine · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:01pm

GDP comes in well below estimates but markets in the green.

Adjustable Rate Mortgage applications on the rise for first time since 2006.

Metals still tanking.

A few months ago I was getting ever so slightly skeptical about stacking with silver and gold getting kicked to the curb. However, taking a step back and looking at the delusional state that the world financial markets are in, a roll of ASE's is looking like a pretty good deal right now...

tmosley · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:08pm

Thanks, Turd.

s1lverbullet · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:21pm

I get it, some of you are feeling pain, but some of you also just need to chill the blank out. Unless you are planning on selling tomorrow, then you haven't lost anything. I plan on holding for another decade or two, so why should I care if the price is this low?

The fear is downright palpable on this site right now. 

This is the best time to buy.

MetalPrices · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:25pm

Respectfully - Would you mind explaining in simple terms your thoughts on why you should hold your PM for another decade or two?

zman · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:35pm

"There seems to be plenty of metal at $19 oz"

Who dare you say that, didn't you know that the market doesn't work anymore, therefore all the metal should be gone at $19 oz.

If the market is so broken, then where is the disconnect between paper vs physical price? Will anyone pay more than $19 for anyones silver today?

tmosley · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:40pm

zman: APMEX is paying about $21 for junk silver. You know, that stuff that they used to SELL for 90% of spot?

Those prices are higher now because USED SILVER is (apparently) very difficult to come by. Only new silver from mines is flowing freely. But what happens when the miners all go out of business?

Arcticfoxx · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:52pm

I cruise this site everyday.......I love reading the posts, This is my source for all the metals info the second it's out!!

Turd you do an amazing job, along with all the long time posters, I truly appreciate it!!

Wow this is crazy what's going on, and I feel sorry for people who can't handle this, but really it's what most of us have been anticipating!

I don't understand the comments from people saying they feel sorry for the stackers? If you bought at what you think was a fair price and did so smartly and locked it up, it really shouldn't matter, and you never no what lies tomorrow right? Better to have ........then have not!

Personally I put all my savings into pm's mainly silver, and planned to hold on for years....... and will!!

My biggest motivator was not leaving my money in the bank.......not because i was worried about getting a haircut, or the banks failing but simply just couldn't stand the fact that the BB's get to use, and make money off my fiat and charge me to do so.

Thank you all and Keep stacking

Underdawg · Jun 26, 2013 - 1:52pm

I found this blog by accident and I am very greatful that I did. I started stacking over a year ago so I was lucky enough to start buying when silver was in the low thirties and when it dropped into the high twenties I took advantage of the situation. I lucked out later when silver hit the mid twenties, so I pounced again and lo and behold silver got back over thirty dollars. I thought we were off to the races. I panicked when silver went to 35, thinking it was going much higher , so I bought again but luckily I didn't much powder so I didn't buy very much. I was supprised when silver started dropping because almost everyone on KWN were saying how much higher the PM's were going. I have followed GATA for a few years and luckily there was a posting from TFMR,which I read and kept thinking "Who in the hell is Turd?". I have been a regular ever since, but mostly as a casual reader. 

I couldn't believe the great buying opportunity today, but as I am reading today several people all they want to do is BITCH about how much they are down, how much longer is this going to last, why am I even buying PM's since I have lost so much,etc.,etc.

I know that I am a lot older than the majority of you readers,but I will never forget a cartoon that I saw in the late sixties in Playboy. It showed two prisoners in midevial times, one hanging by shackles on the wall about a foot off the ground, the other sitting on the floor with a shackle around his neck with a three foot chain anchored to the wall, sitting there rubbing his feet and complaining to the guy hanging on the wall, that his feet are killing him. I think that some of you on this site should think about that and be thankful that you have a chance to add to your stack.

zman · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:10pm

So APMEX is offering a slight premium on 90% silver, is that anything really to get excited about? That isn't the big disconnect we are looking for in this smash down.

How about a $10 an oz disconnect, then we have something.

Bottom line, spot paper price and physical price are still inline.

· Jun 26, 2013 - 2:15pm

I find it of passing interest, and mildly amusing, that all the wonderfully prescient bearish-minded traders come pouring out of the woodworks today, as Turd announces a hiatus.

Perhaps most of the tales of woe about the perceived losses on metals are honest and for real. If so, they give reason to believe that capitulation may indeed be in the works. I do find their concentrated blitz at this particular time to be a bit odd. I also find the accusations "you PM bulls have been WRONG, SO WRONG about all this!" and "this is YOUR FAULT for suckering me into buying too much gold/silver" to be misguided and disingenuous. And the exhortation to "admit it! your cockamamie theories about price manipulation, supply shortages, cost of production, PMs being the ultimate money are WRONG! Do as I (say I) do -- sell all your PMs now before it's too late, and join me in my hair-ripping, teeth-gnashing, self-flagellating misery!" is really, really constructive.

As many before me have pointed out, PMs are INSURANCE. They are a HEDGE. They are a doorstop, a paperweight, a pretty garland IN "NORMAL" TIMES of relative stability and rule of law.

These are NOT NORMAL TIMES. Your bank deposit is not your property, it is an unsecured loan from you to the banking institution, backstopped by government deposit insurance.

The PM you hold in your hand is money NOW, not 4-6 weeks from now when the collapsed bank is unwound and depositors shunted to another bank, or otherwise made whole -- to the limits of FDIC insurance of course. You had MORE? Oh, so sahwry, that is just POOF! gone now.

PMs in hand are money NOW, whether or not the FDIC has more than a fraction of a percent to cover insured US deposits (I dare you to look up the capitalization ratio of THAT particular "insurance" company vs. potential claims outstanding).

PMs in hand are money NOW, unlike the contents of your brokerage account which are one margin call away from becoming pledged to derivative counterparties or creditors. See: "street name registration" for more details. Price stability? HAH!

PMs in hand are money NOW, unlike the real estate which not only gets taxed under threat of confiscation (not to mention HOA rules/costs, condo fees, whatever) -- and may or may not easily be sold when the time comes. Price stability? HAH! And I have not even gotten into eminent domain, or the real owner of lands in the Commonwealth countries.

PMs in hand are money NOW, unlike the bonds whose value is ultimately determined by the global markets' faith in the issuer's ability (and willingness) to repay, and whose income component or market value can shift just as wildly as equity markets.

And I have not even mentioned the abnormally large, ginormous, almost all-encompassing global Central Bank and other government manipulation which distorts the pricing mechanisms of ALL OF THE ABOVE by providing 'free' incentives to continue using all of the above.

The "price" of owning PMs includes the protection from all of the above. The "loss" you are seeing on your PM holdings is the increase in the risk premium on your policy due to the fact that 3 out of 6 lugnuts have already flown off the wildly careening vehicle's wheels, the driver's drunk AND coked up, the dead body's foot is sticking out of the trunk, the guy riding shotgun is letting off bazooka shots left and right and the roadsigns ahead say:

The high prices in 2011 dislodged most of the remaining smaller hoards and consumer/retail PMs. These low prices are intended to dislodge the holdings of the LARGE institutional hoards (GLD, SLV). If they also grab your few hundred measly ounces, so be it -- but in general I would imagine we are less than gnats, more like microbes to those in control of these markets.

Check you premises. If you think price discovery works, the markets are free, fair, well-regulated and honest, and that the rule of law is alive and well to protect the rights and livelihood of citizens worldwide, try to avoid men offering attractively priced Rolexes and bridge properties in NYC.

And to all and sundry who believe this site has dragged them into untold financial losses, hardship, anguish and woe -- well, the first step towards recovery is recognizing the problem. Solution to THIS particular problem: close your browser window, and do not reopen. See if that helps. If not, also never, ever visit Zero Hedge, nor Jesse's Cafe, none of the other PM blogs. If you are STILL not doing better, you should probably switch off all non-US-based news sources (RT, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Der Spiegel, etc.). As a final step, just proceed as diagrammed below, while singing "Material Girl" at the top of your lungs:

If you're still not feeling better, consult a different guru. I mean, you DID start out by saying this site caused all the trouble in the first place.

____________________________________________________________________________________

The reason I originally started this post was to point to NSA whistleblower Russ Tice's full interview on Sibel Edmonds' site, Boiling Frogs Post. It's a 1:22.22 interview, so I have only listened to the 3-4 min teaser -- but it should be a hoot.

"In this bombshell episode of the Boiling Frogs Post Podcast Show NSA whistleblower Russ Tice joins us to go on record for the first time with new revelations and the names of official culprits involved in the NSA’s illegal practices. Mr. Tice explains in detail how the National Security Agency targets, sucks-in, stores and analyzes illegally obtained content from the masses in the United States. He contradicts officials and the mainstream media on the status of the NSA’s Utah facility, which is already operating and “On-Line.” He reveals the NSA as a Deep State that targets and wiretaps US political candidates for its own purposes. We discuss the latest controversies involving the NSA, PRISM, Edward Snowden, and the spins and lies that are being floated by the US mainstream and pseudo-alternative media. Do NOT miss this revelatory interview." Direct link to podcast here.

I was literally about to go looking for some pictures of the Tom Hanks movie where he is stuck in the transfer terminal due to his lack of valid passport at the time of his landing, when I saw WB7 had already beaten me to it:

Various accounts place him in Moscow, Norway, Iceland, Hong Kong. I am reminded of this scene:

Favorite Scene from Thomas Crown Affair
ag1969 · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:17pm

I have never seen Trolls like today. Maybe we should call it " The Great CornTrollio"

And to you all I say:

Headswim · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:18pm

APMEX by far not the only place to buy from. I've watched premiums at my LCS rise from ~$3-4/0z to $5-6/oz over the last 6-8 months. As price falls, this actually represents an even larger increase in % premium.

at $30/oz in January, $3 was a 10% premium. At $20 last week, a $5 premium is 25%. Even if premium were steady at $3, at $20 silver this is a 15% premium.

Physical and paper are very much not in line when you look at the increase in the % of the premium, not the $ amount.

I choose not to order online because I don't want my money stuck in limbo during supply chain crunch on increased buying. Yes, I end up paying more, but I take delivery TODAY and not "sometime".

Math ftw!

alan2102 Basil · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:30pm

"What I find outrageous in his CERTAINTY. How can anyone possibly be certain about such things ? Why can't he just be honest and say "here is my view , but I may be wrong etc etc " . Unfortunately Willie is not alone in his arrogance."

No, indeed he isn't. I'll have to admit to a tad too much certainty myself, at times -- though stopping short of arrogance, thankfully. The arrogantly certain seem to be the ones with the most hat tips around here. And the people who complain about excess certainty are denounced as trolls. (And perhaps ARE trolls, for other reasons.)

daveyboy · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:38pm

How are we experiencing a divergence when Jeff Nielson has already said that silver investment demand in both India and China is crap hence why there is no upsurge in prices, hence why there is no silver shortages, hence why there is no rocketing premiums.

Come on guys, this is 101 denial of reality

Here is further proof...

Current silver price in GBP 12.21

Vienna Philharmonic, 1oz Silver, 2013 31.10g 13.66 £ 16.39 £ 12.62 £
Noah's Ark, 1oz Silver, 2013 31.10g 13.74 £ 16.49 £ 12.48 £
Maple Leaf, 1oz Silver, 2013 31.10g 13.75 £ 16.50 £ 12.62 £
Suriname, 1oz Silver, 2013 31.10g 13.75 £  

That just illustrates how awash they are silver. It's under $19 and yet I can buy with a premium of 1.50 (GBP)

However for those looking to buy, it won't go much lower than this, in the short run the market is dead basically, in the long run, miners costs are rising.

So take your pick..........in the event of bank theft, it's a sound means of insuring it can't literally be stolen from you.

Long term, miners have costs which are steadily growing. However as for silver shortage? it's utterly unfounded and it's that kind of baseless rhetoric which discredits and harms this market.

I have even seen scumbags declare that silver will rise to $20,000 an ounce and then of course there is Sprott, how intensely was he doing the rounds just before silver caved in at $28? I am sure there is no correlation and he wasn't aware of what the charts were screaming, am sure that huge selling by the Sprott fund, wasn't really Sprott or his closest cohorts.

Yeah right, anyways, I am numb to this bullshit now, but given how cheaply I can buy silver now. It makes sense for me to buy a little more silver when I can afford to do so.

Headswim · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:39pm

What is 3 divided by 30? Assuming no change to premiums, what is 3 divided by 20?

Do you not understand that relative to the cost of the underlying asset, even if the dollar-denominated amount of the premium has remained exactly the same and low, premiums have been rising since the top?

Did you ever work with fractions from 4th grade through the rest of your life?

I'm not saying there's a massive price divergence or that premiums are rocketing. Just that factually it is not false to point out that premiums are rising relative to the spot price in terms of %. 10% to 15% in 6 months isn't the end of the world. But it is an increase.

waxybilldupp ag1969 · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:44pm

That cartoon was a hoot! The only thing I can think of to perhaps improve it would be to use a picture of Yoda or a Monty Python medieval knight.

Also correct about the troll count. About time to open up a season on 'em. Really sick of the whining. 

About 3-4 months ago, I put all of my 403b in a equity short fund. They only allow mutual fund purchases. Down 20%+. Going to get another 1-2% whack today. Don't care. Hanging tough. Equities running on fumes. 1.8% Q1 GDP so DOW UP 150 today. Really? Gotta appreciate the management going on with equity, bond and PM markets. Things are feeling a bit desperate.

Got CNBS on in the background. The MOPE makes me smile. They are having a field day with gold getting its nuts crushed. Then, I think back to the YEARS (about a decade) that gold just went up and up and up. Not a peep out of the plastic people back then. Those days of quiet from the CNBS'ers will return. Meanwhile, my stack lies patiently in the cool depths. 

Here we are, another day closer to {ctrl}{alt}{del} (restart)

wax off

daveyboy · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:47pm

Are you serious? of course the % premiums have to rise a little the lower this goes, the retailer needs to stay in business.

tmosley · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:50pm

zman: You asked, I answered. I didn't say that that premiums were super high, nor do they have to be.

Remember how you go bankrupt. Slowly at first, then all at once. We are approaching an asymptotic moment.

zman · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:54pm

From Jeff Nielson, "When silver sentiment fell in India, not only did demand fall by about 30%, silver imports plummeted by roughly double that amount."

There is a reason why silver in below $20 oz, physical demand.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/nielson062513.html

daveyboy · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:56pm

tmosley go into www.coininvestdirect.com and look how closely the price changes mirror any changes which occur in the spot price.

How many times did we hear that once under $26 even, the premiums would be huge?

None of this fills me with any satisfaction, but it's the reality, the shitty buying in India and China is the reality

At the moment at least

mr.green · Jun 26, 2013 - 2:59pm

If you are saying that gold could go all the way to zero, then how would we ever know if we are wrong about the financial system? Basically if gold goes up you are correct but if it crashes you are also correct?

bunnytoujours · Jun 26, 2013 - 3:03pm

I like this miner made some fiat with them as they took off from $2. Anyway some of you might be shopping and I can tell you the 10oz mayan calander coin is quite nice and also that 50oz poured bar is sweet oh and the kilo too, they are a producing mine and they do not seem to want to sell that good product below $25 for now. They never had more than $2 premium before....

MsMaryMac · Jun 26, 2013 - 3:05pm

Ok, we know what Santa thinks of them. Turd, I was wondering if JW has expressed an opinion on their authenticity?

Turd, I understand your weekly COT analysis and if the commercials are indeed covering and going long that is fantastic for pm investors. That is definitely the picture they are trying to convey. You have indicated in the past however that Santa could be correct and that the the reports could be fraudulent.

T. Buttler believes the COT's are not fraudulent but he also believed the regulators would do the right thing. I think nothing more needs to be said here on that.

So Turd, if Santa is indeed correct here and the reports are currently just perpetuating Fraud 101, then perhaps you could do an analysis of what they may attempting to achieve this year by way of painting a false COT report? Just a suggestion!

gw MetalPrices · Jun 26, 2013 - 3:07pm

Like I said earlier, many here think they are either immortal or have such high net worths thereby enabling them to ride this out for years or decades. Ridiculous amounts of denial. If you owned 3k shares of aapl at 700, you would be crying right now. Silver, gold no different. Anytime one holds a trade at a 30% or greater loss, it hurts because one day you have to realize those losses. Sorry I am not as lucky as some here who can ride out the storm.

tmosley · Jun 26, 2013 - 3:17pm

Right, because the 0.5% physical demand has a HUGE impact on the 99.5% paper market.

Get real, fools. Or better yet, get out. I promise we won't follow you to troll YOU when the situation is reversed. You are just wasting your time here.

ancientmoney gw · Jun 26, 2013 - 3:26pm

to miss the point of PMs. You said:

"If you owned 3k shares of aapl at 700, you would be crying right now. Silver, gold no different."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silver, gold no different? Have you maybe, just maybe heard anyone, at anytime refer to gold and silver as insurance against a failing system? That they are not "investments" like aapl?

If you got in over your head, and didn't save enough fiat to pay for day-to-day bills it is not the fault of gold and silver. Something tells me you know that, and that you are not "insurance poor" in other areas, either.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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