Time For A Break

613
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 10:58am

You know how they say that dogs can sense an impending earthquake? Don't you kind of feel that way these days? I know I do.

First, it seems that everything is down. Stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Every currency. If there's a market for it, it's being sold. The only thing that is consistently rising this past week is The Pig. And once those dollars are bought, where are they going? Apparently nowhere. Very strange. Almost ominous.

Then you've got very knowledgeable folks like Bill Holter at MilesFranklin blaring the alarm with columns like this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-great-unwind-has-finally-arrived and this: https://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-button-has-been-pushed-ready-or-not

We've got Santa, who is clearly very, very nervous. He's practically begging you to meet him somewhere for a discussion: https://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/24/chicago-vancouver-and-scottsdale-qa-session-tickets-still-available/ And he keeps posting messages urging you to Get Out of The System (GOTS) as quickly as possible. Just yesterday, he linked two articles which you really do need to take some time to consider:

https://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2013-Global-systemic-crisis-II-second-devastating-explosion-social_a14266.html &

https://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/u-s-banks-crisis-plan-fed/

There are items such as this, which I found at ZeroHedge: https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/mid-year-digest/

And Chris Martenson, who I know to be a very wise and sober fellow, got into the act, too: https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/82210/everything-being-sold

So here we are. Look, I don't know if the financial world is ending this week or next or even this year, but I do know that the current system is unsustainable. To that end, your only financial protection is the physical possession of gold and silver. Not paper derivatives. Not ETFs. Not a basket of mining stocks. Physical metal, in your own two hands.

For those of you upset about the current, eight-month decline of fiat-conversion value, I'm sorry. If having gold and silver consistently move higher in terms of dollars would make you feel more comfortable, I regret that that hasn't happened for you. If you are sitting upon unrealized losses which makes you feel uncomfortable, I apologize and I wish I could make it different for you. But I can't.

However, you need to remember that we live in extraordinary times. Those spouting disinformation about the future price of gold are either hopelessly misinformed or deliberately trying to mislead you. The global forces at work behind the scenes have been in control and remain in control of the paper metal market. The past eight months have been a coordinated effort to crush price, thereby freeing physical for immediate delivery and allowing The Bullion Banks to cover paper short positions, transferring the future risk and liability to the Specs. This has now been accomplished and I firmly believe that we are very near a price bottom.

One day, very soon, paper price will reverse and head higher. Then, one day in the future, paper price will no longer exist as price resets multiples higher with the emergence of a new global financial paradigm. Please understand: THIS IS NOT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR "PROFIT". This is simply an opportunity to protect and defend all that you have accumulated to this point in your life.

To that end and to personally prepare, I'm going to be taking a few days off. Over the next two weeks, I'll still post from time to time but I'll also be sharing some "guest posts" from a handful of your favorite site regulars. Then, come next month, I plan to make a few changes to the way we do things around here. Nothing earth-shattering but necessary changes, nonetheless.

In the meantime, stay alert. Now is not the time to be complacent. Trust your instincts and use your brain. Double-check that you have acquired enough physical metal and consider buying even more. The End of The Great Keynesian is upon us. Please continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  613 Comments

Basil DallasRichard
Jun 26, 2013 - 10:33am

@DallasRichard

That is a very frustrating tale. I don't suppose it would make the slightest bit of difference, but it must be tempting to send an email to Willie explaining this , with a copy of his own words in the email.

What I find outrageous in his CERTAINTY. How can anyone possibly be certain about such things ? Why can't he just be honest and say "here is my view , but I may be wrong etc etc " . Unfortunately Willie is not alone in his arrogance. Jim Sinclair in another who makes claim after claim with absolute certainty, most of which just turn out to be total bullshit. Unfortunately a lot of his "CIGAs" worship the very ground he walks on, and many have undoubtedly lost a great deal following his so-called advice.

Anyway, I wish you the best and thankyou for your honest posting

tyberious
Jun 26, 2013 - 10:46am

(No subject)

My Dear Extended Family,

As long as physical gold remains at a premium above future that is above the cost of insurance and transportation, the lower the inventory of gold at the COMEX goes. A futures exchange without a warehouse inventory becomes a cash exchange. This is the emancipation of physical gold from the manipulative capacity of No-Gold, Paper - Gold.

Iceberg Slim
Jun 26, 2013 - 10:58am

Tough to stomach, but we've been here before.

these drops are tough to stomach but also tough to pass up on. I've been buying in small to modest spurts all the way down, cost averaging...will likely make another purchase this Friday if we are still below $19 by then. hardest part of all this is really just discipline. even though it's tough to watch these waterfalls we've been here before when silver dropped from $20 to $9 back during the whole Lehman fiasco, and it seems like another event like that is right around the corner...

MetalPrices rtabit
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:06am

@rtabit

Hi. Thanks for pointing that out. I'm definitely going to wait until month's end before shorting silver. I usually focus on daily charts and just zoomed out to find a major support/resistance levels.

meddle magic
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:12am

thanks coach

keep up posted on your trades, just for grins.

meddle magic
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:16am

TBT

YTD return 3.56% not bad

PMBull meddle magic
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:20am

Late to the Party Shorts - Hah Hah

Hey CoachFX, where were you with your short calls at $25 or $30?

Hedgies were gettin heavy short there.

Banks have been coving all the way down.

Now, you enter the picture, confident enough to start shorting.

Who do you think might be handing those shorts off to you?

LOL - You are like a live, real-time demonstration of how to leave someone holding the bag. You'll be confident for awhile, until you realized what just happened to you.

Oh, I know, you will cover just in time, right? If you think that will happen, refer to my first sentence and question here.

gw DallasRichard
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:23am

Dallasrichard

So happy to see some finally speak the truth about their almost worthless pm's. Many are riding in this boat as we have poured a certain percentage of our hard earned savings into these metals as a potential offset for future price appreciation however in the meantime, the dollar value of these metals have plummeted. Not sure about most of you, but there will come a day where I will need to convert these back to dollars so I can eat so yes this is a fools game. Unless you are immortal or have a very high net worth, many of us are f_cked!!

Cambodia sounds very enticing, actually northeast Thailand. Wush you the best. I have been thinking about leaving this shithole for many years.

meddle magic
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:24am

if the 10 year

hits 3 it's game over

treefrog
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:25am

a feather in srsrocco's cap

comex inventory chart featured on santa's website.

way to go!

Mickey
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:26am

NUGT DGP

someone above said he bought DGP

I'd think thats a good accumulation for the long term.

Selling puts on NUGT now or agq or ugl might be good too--still some downside protection but the opportunity to bring in some cash

and if you buy thru assignments, you buy at lower price than today.

so if you think a little bit lower might be the case selling puts is nice--if you think much lower--what are you doing here? Much lower prob means PM are not a safe haven and nobody is buying physical anywhere in the world. everybody dumping physical.

except russia and china of course who are buying with both hands.

Big Buffalo
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:32am

DGP

Officially stopped out for a small loss. I think both gold and silver just violated any sort of long term support it might have had. I can't see myself shorting at this level, but I'm certainly out of going long.

meddle magic
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:37am

just a q

I'm sure no one will answer but here goes what happens if intrest rates go up on a world scale? good or bad for metals?

MetalPrices PMBull
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:39am

@ PMBull

Hi. I'm sorry but I only just started trading forex a year ago and now I've recently shorted gold for the first time and hope to trade silver too in the next few days. I feel so sorry for those holding metal coins while price is dropping. Price action on charts will show when to go long again.

PMBull MetalPrices
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:48am

@CoachFX

Ah, a trader with one year experience confidently states:

Price action on charts will show when to go long again.

Sure it will. That's why there are millions of amateur traders out there making huge bank on their brand spanking new mad trading skills, LOL. Oh wait, that's not right. 90% of traders (especially amateur MoMo traders) lose money!

But the charts will tell YOU when to reverse and go long? Heh Heh. Good luck!

opticsguy
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:48am

@Coach

should I buy AAPL?

Wizard nfl
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:53am

nfl It is all good

At this point The only things that matter now is that people do exactly what it is that they Love doing most in there lives. And doing it with the ones that mean the most to them.

The Author of this Blog has Never recommended that Anyone go All In on Precious Metals. And if I am not mistaken he keeps it at a conservative 20% of ones portfolio be allocated to Precious Metals.

Which for me is quite a bit too conservative, But hey I wear my own Big Boy Pants everyday and make my own decisions based on my own independent research.

And if I make a mistake I take full responsibility for it and not blame it on others. Just a small part of being an adult. Hell my 20 Year Old Understands that one.

Fact: Gold and Silver have been Money for over 5 Thousand Years of Human History

Fact: Every Single Fiat Currency in human history has failed......... Every Single One

Fact: Average Life Span of a Fiat Currency, Between 10 and 38 years

Fact: US Dollar has been Purely Fiat Currency for 42 Years

Just going on those basic facts alone, Without all the QE, Manipulation,Depositor Theft and Blah Blah Blah the list could go on for two pages.

Having ones self hedged against a currency failure with just even 20% of a portfolio seems like just a prudent move.

And hey if it doesn't happen, my future Grand children have something Shiny to play with along with story's of their Crazy Grandfather who used to buy Silver all the time.

And if it does happen, then my Future Grand Children have some Shiny to play with along with Story's of their Wise and Prudent Grand Father who used to buy Silver all the time.

Either way My Future Grand Children have something Shiny to Play with.

It's All Good

W

rtabit
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:53am

@CoachFX

Here's is a daily chart that may help, I try to trade off 240 or 20 minute charts. Missed that support by around 15 cents or so. I'd look to short on second red line above, currently around 21.25 area.

MetalPrices rtabit
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:58am

@rtabit

Thanks for the chart. I'll take a good look. I prefer horizontal s/r lines. I knew I was going to come in for some stick for posting charts and discussing common sense price action trading but I didn't know long time investors would be so hostile. Just to clarify, I don't believe you can predict anything from charts, just make common sense decisions based off of actual price action signals. For example...don't buy silver until the next support level is reached!

jezfry
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:58am

Liquidity crisis in China

With vast sums tied up in US treasuries which are dropping like a stone and PM's at discount prices - waddya do?

Best guess - sell treasuries while dollar is strong and use funds to ease credit crisis and buy PM's.

Sounds a plan...

Big Buffalo
Jun 26, 2013 - 11:58am

boy oh boy

Why are you guys so quick to attack CoachFX? So what, he's bearish, as are many here. The pm market have been bearish for 2 years. He's more right than wrong. Has he mentioned anything about selling all your phyzz and buying aapl or fb or gm. No! Nothing. He posted some charts that are facts, then added some of his own opinion. He shared what his plans are. That's it.

Why attack? Check yourself and your stack. Don't go pissing on other people yard just because you're pissed off your stack has less fiat worth.

Seriously, get a grip.

btw - I like the permabulls here. There nothing wrong with being bullish and have the belief. Just try not bashing everyone and anyone that makes a bearish statement.

MetalPrices opticsguy
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:02pm

@opticsguy

Just looking at daily chart for appl. Support comes in around $384 but trend is very bearish. I don't trade stocks but I wouldn't be looking to buy.

Big Buffalo
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:02pm

BTW -

Before y'all start attacking me: THE BEARS HAVE BEEN RIGHT FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS!!!!

I was lucky to have sold a large portion of my stack back in November for $35/silver and $1750/gold. Just plain simple luck b/c I needed to rise money for my business. If I were to buy right now, I could add 40% to my stack. That's pretty fucking good, I'd say.

SilverSurfers
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:02pm

Time

for some opening remarks. Proximal Counsel: Your Honors, I would like to introduce Mr Reid, who would like to make some brief opening remarks. REID:

Opening Remarks by Of Counsel Reid

I) National Importance

A) 50m Ensalvement of those on meal tickets

B) 100m Freedom Lovers up in arms and possible civil war

C) Wall Street Occupiers are demonstrating in the streets

D) US Attorney General TBTF TBTJ Wall Street Mob Bosses

E) Wall Street Mob Boss Unduly Influences Government

F) Only this Court can Save the Nation from Ruination

II Plaintiff Causes of Action

A) Interference Tort

B) Fraud Tort

C) Racketerring RICO

D) Case in Equity for Equitable Injunctions based on Morality

IV Defendant's Court Tactics

A) Teaching the Court simple Tort Actions and Injunctions

B) Relies on Irrelevant Market Law Compliance

C) 5th denials in a civil case is inapplicable

D) Will refuse to Provide Facts despite protective orders

E) Clowns should sit down and shut up in a respectable Court

V Defendants Nefarious Operations

A) Hiding behind Laws, Reports, and Trading Electronics

B) Unlimited Funding ZIRP by the Government

C) Client Fiduciary Breach to start Cascades in Price

D) Criminal Price Manipulation to a target price

E) In house Funds to buy Low using Fraudulent Naked Shorts

F) Front Runs to Conspirators in the Racketeering

G) Treasonous Sales to China in Face of Doomed FRN

H) Dominant position ensured price manipulation

I) Immoral and Unfair regular market intervention

VI Injunctive Relief

A) Bullion Au Ag is constitutional money unlike other Commodities

B) Injunctions tailored to prevent dumping and price manipulations

C) Injunctions tailored to enable selling or any positions limits

D) Injunctions tailored to prevent Bullion Rigging only

======

They are dog meat, and after I just fry their experts on cross, meh, game over!!!

Global Rock Stars on Offense, the Attack Dog on Defense, they are history.

Video unavailable
Steelers Renegade AFC Championship game 2011

Jun 26, 2013 - 12:04pm
Wizard Basil
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:04pm

@Basil

Basil Said

..... if ONE MORE person spews about "backing up the truck".

The freaks on this site have been "backing up the truck" since $1800 Gold and $40 silver. Look where it's got them.

Well where it has gotten me personally is, With the price down like it is.

I had to get a Bigger Truck. LOL

Sorry Dude had to do it

W

rtabit
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:10pm

@opticsguy

If 390 gets support then yes buying AAPL may be a good idea, I'm watching closely, chart and other signals look very interesting to me.

Daily:

Weekly:

gold slut
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:19pm

LCS report somewhere in London

Well, just added another lump of shiny yellow to the stack and for the lowest price I have ever got it for to date!

The shop manager says that he has been trying to get some Britannias at this price but all the usual places are refusing to let go of their stock until the price goes up a bit. Started me thinking that if this carries on much more it will shut down supply to us little folk (in the grand scheme of things) while the 'big boys' suck everything up at low low prices. Not a happy thought

ancientmoney
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:28pm

Sprott's J. Embry sees a global reset of gold coming . . .

"Embry: “I think there are two things going on right now. As you know, the bullion banks are as aware as anybody about what is coming. They have been massively short for the better part of two decades. They have been effecting the suppression of the gold price.

Now the bullion banks know the jig is up and they are moving rapidly from being massively short, to getting long the metals. At the same time the Chinese, Russians, and others accumulating physical gold don’t have any great necessity to see the price rise in the short-term if they can acquire gold from the West at these bargain prices.

But when you get the bullion banks correctly positioned from their perspective, and the Indians, Russians, and the Chinese realizing they can’t get any more gold from the West at these prices, then I think you are going to see a dramatic markup in the gold price.

KWN readers around the world have to understand that as global chaos increases, such as we have seen recently, it is a sign we are going to have to recast the entire world currency system. And when that time comes I suspect it will be a basket of currencies, and so the US will lose its reserve currency status.

The new system will be backed by hard assets, one of which most assuredly will be gold, and the gold price could well be revalued overnight in that process. The timing of all of this is imprecise, but it’s inevitable. So as much as the short-term price action might have people frustrated, it shouldn’t disturb their long-term view in the least.”

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think he's right. Everything as aligning for that. The COMEX and GLD are being drained, the paper pricing mechanism is forcing paper holders to capitulate, the BBs have shifted much of their gold shorts to specs, etc.

Maybe there will be a breakout of further war in ME to provide them cover to announce the halt of PM trading. Maybe a financial blowout somewhere does it. I don't know, but I believe it is coming, and the bond market is saying it is coming not on the elite's preferred timetable, but sooner.

Wizard gw
Jun 26, 2013 - 12:35pm

@ gw

"Not sure about most of you, but there will come a day where I will need to convert these back to dollars so I can eat"

Wow Really. So You Can Eat??

I guess I never really understood

That F*^%&ing Sucks

W

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