Ahead of an Interesting Weekend

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Fri, Aug 26, 2011 - 10:34am

 Well, don't you wonder what the world will look like come Monday? So many unpredictable events are coming that it makes the job of being Turd significantly more challenging. However, The Turd is up to the task and willing, once again, to attempt to predict the unpredictable.

First up, the short term. As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens. As The Turd's old man used to say: "Do you know what motel spelled backward is? Let om". In this case, that logic applies. Let the buffoons spout all the bubble and top nonsense that they want. It doesn't matter. The metals are still going significantly higher before year end and none of the top-calling douchebags will be held accountable for being wrong anyway.

For today, I predicted yesterday that gold could see 1790-1800 and that silver could see 41.80-42.20. Upon further review, I'd like to refine those numbers just a bit. Now, we may have already seen the highs and they are both close enough to those targets that they may not trade much higher. Gold touched 1798 and silver tapped 41.34. I don't think silver will trade much higher than 41.50 today but it could still reach up to the goals stated yesterday. Gold, on the other hand, still could see some upside. IF it can trade through 1800, it has a decent chance of making it all the way to 1820 or so. If it does, I will be looking to lighten some Oct calls before the weekend.

paper_8-26amgoldh.jpgpaper_8-26amsilvh.jpg

That said, the long term picture for both metals remains quite positive, regardless of the nonsense you hear on financial TV. Both of the charts below are very instructive and I plan on updating them frequently in the coming days and weeks as I believe they represent the true picture of what to expect for future price movements. Note that silver is in a very nice up channel. This is much appreciated as it is something that takes much of the complication out of trading. Gold, on the other hand, has a chart formation that you rarely ever see. Let's call it a "reverse pennant" and it is indicative of an uptrend that has an increasing level of volatility. IF this trend continues, we can use this chart to make a lot of fiat as the swings up and down are only going to get wider.

paper_8-26amgold8.jpgpaper_8-26amsilv8.jpg

I'd like to close today with a couple of housekeeping items.

1) Civility. Please remember that we are trying to build a place here that is unlike other internet sites. We treat others the way we want to be treated. This leads me to...

2) The goal of this site is to help and educate as many as possible through our collective experience and wisdom. The site is used by people ranging in age from 13-93. If you would be uncomfortable using certain language, innuendo and images around you daughter or your grandmother, then don't bring it here. Use discretion.

3) Try to take it easy on poor, old Blythe. During work hours, she may be a heartless shrew who takes pleasure in the blatant manipulation of the metals. In her personal life, her bio paints a portrait of someone different. I guess my point is: It's beneath us to deride her with nasty slang on her personal sites. Let others do that if they feel they must. We here should be more concerned with surviving the disaster that is most assuredly coming.

4) I do, from time to time, delete things. This is not censorship. Censorship is an impairment of your right to free speech in the public arena. This is not a public arena. This is my website. I own it. I decide what gets viewed and what stays posted. That said, I've only deleted a handful of things in the first 60 days and most of it was copyrighted material that could not be allowed to stay.

Finally, be very careful as we head into the weekend. The current pattern in gold is frighteningly similar to the pattern of silver back in late April. The Sunday Night Massacre followed the first margin hike and occurred during a thinly-traded Globex session the preceded a London holiday. Gold has now seen two margin hikes and this Sunday's Globex session also precedes a London holiday. Throw in the fact that many market participants will be MIA Sunday evening due to what looks to be an ongoing hurricane and you get an almost ideal setup for the criminal C/C/C to unleash Sunday Night Massacre II. Not sayin...just sayin.

Have a great day. I'll try to update after the close. TF

About the Author

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  413 Comments

¤ · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:12am

Oil is rocketing

Take a look at a current chart. Wow!

Between the CME lifting some margin prices and the Bernank speaking the crude price has show some dramatic movements.

I think $100 happens quick.

Did something just happen in the world (libya, mena) I don't know about that's effecting crude right now?

Anonymous · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:13am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Silverline · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:14am

When to buy

With the BB speech in the can, I think the time to buy is today. Monday I believe we see a spike in PM's on the open. Is it just me or does anybody else feel this way?

Holy Avenger · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:15am

New Asian Gold Exchange Q411

I found this buried in a thread over at ZH.

Seems that it could be significant on both the gold front as well as dollar v. RMB front:

https://www.cheviot.co.uk/news/2011/08/the-pan-asia-gold-exchange-and-hugo-chavez-a-curious-meeting-of-minds/

The Pan Asia Gold Exchange and Hugo Chavez, a curious meeting of minds?

Ned Naylor-Leyland - 01.8.11

The recent story picked up in the media about Hugo Chavez and the ‘calling’ of Venezuelan Gold held in London generated a good deal of interest and drew attention to the little-discussed issue of Precious Metals custody and ultimately, delivery.

Unlike the Venezuela delivery angle, however, an even bigger and related story is emerging outside of the coverage of the mainstream western press. China has recently launched a new Precious Metals exchange in Kunming City, Yunnan province, called the Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE). I had the great pleasure of being part of a small group of interested parties in London observing and participating in the opening ceremony for the new exchange. We saw the clear support of central and regional government in this venture, evidenced by the participants on the day and their comments. PAGE has been steered at central government level by key economic ministers and mavens and is a formal part of the PRC's present 5 year plan, one which places Yunnan province as a new gateway to international trade. The photo on the right shows the scale (and colour!) of the new exchange building in Kunming City.

A Healthy Market

Current Precious Metals Price Discovery

The Future of Precious Metals Price Discovery

This exchange is offering a new international-facing allocated ‘Spot’ Gold and Silver contract, with an 8am Beijing-time ‘fix’. The fix will only involve Chinese Banks; indeed the owners and members of the exchange are in no way related to the western banks that dominate the existing Spot and Futures Precious Metals markets. PAGE is launching in Q4 2011 a new Spot Precious Metals contract to challenge the emaciated LBMA ‘loco London’ system. International investors will now be able to buy allocated and, crucially, Rmb-denominated ‘Spot’ Gold and Silver contracts. The importance of this cannot be overstated. The Renminbi will be accessible to international investors through this exchange, but in a controlled fashion - using Gold as a synthetic choke on demand for the currency. By buying an Rmb Gold contract on PAGE and selling the equivalent $ denominated contract elsewhere, investors will be left with Rmb exposure. One would imagine that the incentive to own Rmb in the present climate is by inference likely to lead to a whole lot of demand for Gold contracts through this new exchange. Add to that the real demand for allocated Gold that will migrate across from the existing Spot market and you are looking at something that looks sure to have major implications for the Precious Metals market.

Historically the emergence of new Gold and Silver exchanges is met with a collective yawn. The reason for this is that there has never before been any expectation that new exchanges could/would affect the price discovery mechanism. Each new exchange was effectively an extension of the status quo. The mainstream has become dissociated with regard to this issue of price discovery. Many assume that Precious Metals prices are discovered in the healthy way one would normally expect - the body of the market being the 'real' Spot market, where the forces of supply and demand meet, with a small tail wagging merrily away in the form of a futures market (see the Jack Russell illustration). In Gold and Silver the size of the Spot market is ten or more times that of the futures market, so the use of a dog as an analogy holds up in scale terms. The current price discovery mechanism, however, as expressed by my Basset Hound illustration, works instead as follows:

The body of the dog (the Spot market) has become the plaything of its ‘tail’. Rather than the dog wagging its tail, the dog is being wagged BY the tail. This is achievable because the actors wagging the dog by its tail are some of the same LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) members that effectively make up the body of the dog. The LBMA system (aka ‘loco London’) has held sway beyond living memory and countless nations rely on the system for both price discovery and storage/custody. This system has not only allowed itself to be corrupted by fractionalisation, it is clear that the body of the dog actually welcomes being wagged, for fear of the repercussions of being caught short were it not! The ‘spot’ dog has been reduced to shell of its former self, so much so that even apologists for the status quo admit that the ‘spot’ market has around 100 paper claims outstanding to each physical bar. At any cost the existing mechanism will resist delivery, which is what makes the recent demand by Hugo Chavez to repatriate Venezuelan Gold reserves so interesting. This move towards delivery by the Venezuela leader plays into the same important dynamic as the Pan Asia Gold Exchange.

My contention is that this new exchange represents a far bigger challenge to the hegemony of the existing bullion banking system and it price discovery mechanism than most realise. Given the choice between being the unallocated and unsecured creditor of a fractionalized LBMA market or holding title to deliverable and allocated bars within the PAGE system I anticipate much of the ‘loco London’ business will migrate east, lured by the twin benefits of certainty of outright ownership and long-awaited international market access to Renminbi.

Download August's Monthly Note in PDF file format

Chris P. Bacon · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:20am

@Raphio

Sheik Yerbouty, long time no see! Great avatar.

silverdock · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:21am

The daily raid session usually last about 6 hours

Hence for the raid started on 26 Aug 07:40, cartels should call it a day roughly after 13:40.

Vincent · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:22am

Thanks Thanks Thanks TF

Thanks... It is necessary to wait the end of September, and now LOL

· Aug 26, 2011 - 11:23am

The Bernank's (heavily assisted by speechwriters) speech

Bernanke has finally spoken (sort of.) but the speech was not composed his usual language: bernankese. Anyone can read this thing and actually understand it. But that doesn’t mean he is any less “rhetorical” in his approach. He only changes his style (with much assistance) to something more colloquial, accessible and devious.

I am struck by two aspects of Bernanke’s comments. First that he continuously insists that we are still in an economic recovery, one that has lasted nine quarters now. He uses the word 24 times! You will note all the positive terms in the image below. In the front half of the speech, he says that the so-called “recovery” is “slow,” “modest,” “less robust,” “weaker.” He certainly cannot tellus that things are good. But then, half way through the speech, the term recovery is coupled with positive terms like “momentum,” “promote,” “natural,” “price stability,” “accelerates.” He finally employs the term “cyclical” to suggest that it is only natural that the economy will improve. The wordle image came out just like his speechwriters wanted.

It seems that the Bernanke and the MSM will simply not admit that the GDP is contracting just hours after this quarter’s disappointing number was released. Judging by their own massaged stats, inflation is at 2% while the GDP is at 1%--that means a 1% contraction. Even I can do the math.

Supporting this imaginary recovery Bernanke uses metaphors, not data. I can’t imagine why… The term “healing” suggests that the 2008 financial crisis was an injury, and of course injuries to living organisms naturally heal with time. Bernanke has also embedded a natural disaster metaphor by using the term “aftermath,” as if the 08 crisis, and continuing world economic problems are a single, one-time event, like a hurricane, from which people need to clean up and rebuild. Remember, metaphors try to take what is complex and simplify it so we can learn. If they fit and resonate, they are very helpful. But persuaders have traditionally used them as a very powerful tool of propaganda and deceit. These two metaphors (injury and natural disaster) are inappropriate and far too oversimplified to characterize the current state of economic affairs. I smell some deception.

Perhaps most importantly, I see what some insightful Turdites (and even the CNBC analysts) have pointed out, that the Fed isn’t really going to do anything, and is even dodging responsibility for fixing the economy. Up to this point, it seems our leaders have been depending on central banks for a solution. But in this speech Bernanke only offers “help,” not full responsibility, for economic recovery. He ambiguously refers to “tools” that might “promote” a recovery. He is clearly laying responsibility for the lion’s share of the solutions on “policymakers.” They are the ones who have to “work,” “develop” make “difficult choices” and face “difficult decisions.” The Fed is only promising to help out with their tools. Ben won’t be making any decisions or choices, nor will he provide any solutions or answers.

Is this some preemptive damage control? Sounds to me like Ben is actually pessimistic and wants Washington to take the blame for what comes next.

Courtesy of Wordle
treefrog · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:24am
JohnG timpa · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:25am

After fiat

"Give me a little insight here please. When all fiat goes to zero just what will the mode of exchange ultimately be and will gold and silver maintain the value they have climbed to."

Exchange will be physical, and value FAR, FAR higher.

Hoping to learn · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:26am

Mining prices

How many more quarters is the market going to ignore that the price of silver is not going back to the lows posted at the start of the year ? I can understand the hesitancy of Wall street in the first quarter believing the growth would be short term and that the value of profits would drop once the prices came back down, but by now I would hope that their new projection models would factor in a higher price per ounce vs. cost of mining. Is this just a coiled spring building pressure, or am I missing something ? Advise please...

Tom L · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:26am

What a Morning

I haven't been able to sit at my desk for more than 10 minutes since the open between internet issues, goat breeding follies, burned milk and trying to play catch up. I literally have no idea what's going on right now... information overload (FOR ME!) doesn't happen that often. 

I seriously just want to load up LotR online and whack pixelated orcs for the rest of the day.

Ta,

¤ · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:28am

ScottJ or BenRoberts

"Scottj presented evidence that this war goes way back when the U.S removed silver as part of the bi-metallic standard causing a depression,"

I must have missed that link or article and it sounds interesting.

Any links to any of that discussion or ScottJ's take on this? Thanks

BenRoberts...Well said . Something very large is going on between the TPTB or because of TPTB in monetary policy on a global level. We're in for some type of historic change at some point from all of this. There's too much pressure built up within the system, most of it bad, and it needs to correct at some point by some large measure anda drastic maneuver due to desperation and chaos seems likely.

Or is is all planned and it'd being implemented? That's a debate to consider.

They seem to have set up the table nicely for dramatic change to occur. Is this just dysfunctional Sovereign fiscal mismanagement world wide or planned, low grade economic chaos to clear the pathway to whatever reforms are needed towards a unified global currency?

Raphio Chris P. Bacon · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:30am

@ Gadsden What me worry?  ;-)

@ Gadsden

What me worry? ;-)

silvergoldsilver · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:31am

Red Silver

As of 11:29, Silver is the ONLY comod in the RED, just incase if anyone is keeping track

Mudsharkbytes · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:31am

Words / Language

I for one would not mind either of my kids reading everything that is posted here. There is NO reason to be afraid of words or language or the acts they imply. If you want to keep your kids away from mine because of that, nothing I can do about it. My kids are great, peace loving well balanced and my youngest is taking all his allowance to the LCS and turning it into silver every month.

Can't ask for more.

George Carlin clip - 7 words you can't say on television (if language offends thee - skip the clip):

The Seven Words
Raphio · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:32am

Santa's Angel

Amidst today's crazy volatility, Santa's Angel of 1767 seems to be holding as a bottom.... so far...

Cleburne61 · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:33am

Concerning Blythe

Hey Turd....I totally understand all your points, as they are cogent and well-received, especially regarding language to others who may be visiting here and not wish to hear it. I have always tried to watch my language here. The copyrighted items, and the site management are all in fair play, and you most certainly have the right to do that. No one would challenge that, well no one with any sense at least.

What I'm a bit puzzled at, is your statement towards Blythe. 

Personally, I don't really care if she spends all her free time at the Salvation Army, giving free meals to the people who line up there...or building houses for the homeless, or cleaning oil off pelicans in the Gulf. 

This does not change the fact that she's one of the most dangerous white-collar criminals bar none on the entire planet. In fact, the case can be made that she's the most dangerous white-collar criminal who ever lived. Yes, we are preparing for the imminent collapse....but this collapse is going to be much worse than it ever would have been BECAUSE OF HER

She invented the OTC derivatives that have stolen hundreds of trillions of dollars and are waiting to send the whole world down a gigantic sinkhole, for God sakes. The fiat/theft game only continues because she continues supplying the chips.

Let me ask those here something: If a large swath of folks, say tens of thousands of well-informed folks like us, had known about Bernard Madoff's fraud before the SEC sent the squads....would you have been angry enough to tell him exactly who he is, and what he deserves? If that was your grandmother's wealth he'd ripped off....wouldn't you have wanted a forum to state yourself in that you KNOW he'd actually hear? 

This vile woman has created(and grown quite wealthy from it, by the way)the most devious form of fraud perhaps ever invented. The fact that she isn't in handcuffs, and listening to tales of her family members jumping out of windows at the shame of it all...is a stark reminder that there is no justice in our land.

I'm a Christian, I love mercy, ok? It's not about that. I've dedicated my life to defending others who couldn't defend themselves. But, I'd never have had to do all that, if not for people just like this. She is an unrepentant rogue who knows exactly what she's doing, and yet continues it day after day. Mercy must be balanced with some justice in this world, somewhere, especially when the thieves are the ones given accolades for dreaming up new ways to rape humanity.

I don't believe this post is over the top. I believe that if the masses ever learned the truth....they'd all want a piece of her. While your point may have been the importance of not getting too caught up in the vengeance aspect, rather than proactive preparation....surely you wouldn't deny all of us disenfranchised souls just a small drop of satisfaction where we could get it, would you? I hope not.

Love ya Turd, really do. I just...had to say that. Thank you for running this free site on my behalf.

Swampfox bikerspade · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:36am

Repeat

Here's an interesting parallel. Not only are we coming up to a UK long weekend mixed with margin hikes but MG is about to go down paralleling the big take down of a Mr. Bin Laden the week before the May crash in Silver. If the metals get smashed over the weekend after news that MG is killed then we will be witnessing history repeat itself. I mean the formula worked the first time - why not a second? Could be a freak'n awesome buying op.

What a twisted world...

Holy Avenger joe rocker · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:37am

@Timpa

Fiat = currency. It will never cease to exist in some form.

Gold = money. It will soon be universally recognized as such and will become the ultimate store of wealth and value.

All fiat will be measured against gold. Each fiat's unit of value will be determined by the size of its monetary base and the net productivity of the economy it represents. 

Fiat will continue to exist as currency for the purpose of exchange. Gold will function as true money as the ultimate store of wealth.

The price discovery for gold cannot and will not be found until all paper gold products implode.

I'm sure others can articulate these ideas better than I can but that's my best guess at the most probable way this all shakes out.

Nick Elway · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:40am

Monetize Silver...Silver is money

@Silver is money

Thanks for the link. I found it on the previous thread and brought it forward. This bullion (gold or silver) coin approach is (IMO) a better outcome than the "gold or bimetallic standard" and is worth working toward. Nick

WYO Silver - Hugo salinas Price

Submitted by Silver is money on August 26, 2011 - 7:47am.

Please take the time to read this speech that he gave in London so that you can better understand his angle on the 'monetization' of silver. There will never be a monetary value printed on the coins, that is an incorrect assessment of how he is pushing this. He knows that he could never achieve it and the price fluctuations within the silver spot market worldwide would make the values counterproductive to the process.

https://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/documentos/images/Hugo_Salinas_Price_Lond...

Sanchez · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:40am

First, I would like to Thank

First, I would like to Thank the Big Turd(hehe). Thanks for bringing this site today and we as a people can come together collectively to discuss ways to protect ourselves. "you are appreciated"- Tupac. 

Second, Schiff mention something yesterday that got me thinking. That Buffet is doing the same thing he did in '08 by investing in a bank and when the crash hit, he got bailout. He just mention its a little eerie he did the same thing. Maybe something is going to happen next week. Hmmmmm. . . .

Boom! We get crash or a bad report on jobs or manufacturing and then. . . Look! Whats that in the air? Its a bird. Its a plane. No, it O'bottom with a new jobs bills to save the day(after labor).

What cha guys think? Little noise from Ben is a lil odd. . .

Hillsie · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:40am

Turd the Seer....

I have to say that no matter what the world throws at us here in "Turd World" I must tip my big yellow hat to the big man who manages to always find something insightful and relevant to titillate us with here.

I started following the blog in November when the Great Turd arrived from Zero Hedge and have done very well on the run up from 27-50 dollars and I'd like say publicly - "thank you"

ScottJ · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:43am

Copper Rebounding Nicely...

Copper moving up confirming its breakout and MACd turning into a buy signal on the daily chart.

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COPPER&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=6027

--

That and is there an inverse head and shoulders forming in gold and silver 5 min right now? (I Know technicals mean little in these times, but fun to watch for)

· Aug 26, 2011 - 11:44am

@Holy Avenger

I do believe you have accurately confirmed the end-game scenario. Well done! Two good things happen when PAGE opens. First, spot prices should truly reflect supply and demand, notably with minimal manipulation from the traditional EE. Second, the escape from deteriorating USD fiat can begin in earnest. This scenario makes most sense to me, because it seems to allow incremental change at the margin, rather than a wholesale, overnight collapse of the USD, and by implication, western economies.

junoroland · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:46am

dollar action?!?

wow the dollar action today is pigular. is 74.50 the new 75.50 . i expected some sort of short term rally as a result of a temporary stopping of the press. the swiss story might be part of it, i have deposits in UBS in euros and they are charging about 20 euros a month for their pleasure for about 6 months now !!!! account closed.

corrolations have been a bit askew lately with gold aswell. seems to be dollar up gold up. guess thats euro buying with the greek carnage to land next week. the troika will be doing their quarterly review while they are trying to resue the 2nd failing deal. MSM will get great mileage deflecting to the euro crisis for the week as the dollar mysteriously does not strengthen.

SuperManny · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:50am

JP Morgan is Foreclosing on the US Treasury

Maybe a bit off topic, but it just shows what a crazy world we live in. Apparently the Morgue is foreclosing on properties the IRS is foreclosing on. Now that's just plain funny!

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/jp-morgan-is-foreclosing-on-the-us-treasury.html

ScottJ · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:51am

Re: Silver Crimes - Silver is Money

There is much history about why silver is regarded in such low regards as it is today (in terms of a monetary metal).

The best Information I have found is from:

https://dont-tread-on.me

--

For the complete story on silver and all of the crimes that have been done against it to keep it from being a monetary metal, I suggest you read this article. I just found it while looking for the previous article (in which emphasizes the crimes of 1873 when the Rothschilds bribed congressman to push demonitization of silver), which goes to show you the depth of the knowledge on this website.

I am going to read through this article now, but I suspect you will find what you are looking for within this article.

https://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-stealers/

Charles Savoie has put together an incredible piece called the Silver Stealers about the true history of the Elite bankers control over silver. This well documented magnus opus of silver history is a must read for anyone who is doubtful of the true role silver will play in our future. This is the most complete history of the secret role the Elite have played in the suppression of silver. Their goal is to secretly steal the wealth of the world. Their game is a multi-faceted plan that spans over a century. The Elite take real assets and give us paper assets. With our debt/money system they will seize our real assets when we cannot pay our paper debts. Their secret plan is only effective when people unsuspectingly play their role and invest in paper assets. The Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield lays out the case to sell all of your paper assets now and invest in physical silver in your possession. The Silver Stealers is an incredible compendium of information that people must read. Please spread this article around and take time to read this huge free article.

abguy4 · Aug 26, 2011 - 11:55am

testing resistance

Be very careful guys.

Look at the 'volitility'.

In military parlance, you never commit troops until you have an estimate of the opposing forces.

What Blythe is doing right now, is testing the resistance at different levels, and getting a count on who and what

and how many come in, and at what level.

This allows her monkees to write the algorithms to establish how much to commit to the next major attack.

This is a set-up.

Beware, be very aware.

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