Bad Economic News Right On Cue

Wed, Jun 5, 2013 - 12:54pm

Just last week, we openly speculated that the "economic news" was about to turn decidedly sour, given that the yield on the 10-year note had moved significantly through 2%. So far, spot on.

Let's just take a look at today's headlines:

I first posited that this would be the case a week ago. You can go back and re-read the full post if you'd like: I haven't gotten the pre-BLSBS selloff I had anticipated...but...the fact that the economic news has turned out as expected makes the post increasingly relevant. At the risk of being BulletPointMan, here's a c&p of the main thesis:

"Once again, this move in rates can be traced to the BLSBS report of Friday, May 3. Since then, the note has fallen four points and now rests near support at 130, which corresponds to a rate of about 2.15%. This level may hold but I suspect that it will not. More likely is a drop to what appears to be critical support near 127-128.
But here's the deal. There is no way, no how that The Fed is going to allow support to fail, thereby letting 10-year rates back up to 3%+. Not happening. Besides the detrimental impact higher rates would have on the U.S. budget deficit and debt, higher rates would also crush any nascent economic recovery.
Already we are seeing things slow down in the U.S. (Even that statement is nonsense because "slow down" implies that previously things had been really cooking.) Check this headline from ZH just this morning. And, as discussed last week, if the economy was booming and housing growth was robust, demand for inputs such as lumber would be soaring and soaring demand would lead to higher prices. Right? Right?? Apparently not.

So here's what's likely to happen in the weeks ahead:

  • The 10-year note may fall a bit farther but then it will bounce and begin to rebound
  • Signs that the U.S. economy is weakening will get more mainstream press coverage
  • This will likely begin with a May NFP next Friday that comes in "weaker than expected"
  • A continuation or even increase of QE will shove stocks even higher
  • Gold and silver will finally stabilize and begin trending higher, the start of a summer rally"

OK, then. So what have we seen in the week since this was posted?

  • The 10-year note sold off, reaching a low on Friday of about 128 1/2. It has since bounced back to near 130.
  • The economic weakening is definitely getting more MSM coverage. (See above.)
  • Still waiting on the BLSBS but today's ADP sure raises questions.

Yes, the BLSBS data on Friday could still leave everyone at CNBS grinning ear-to-ear. We'll just have to wait and see. However, it should be clear to everyone that the U.S. economy is not booming or growing. If anything, it simply continues to bounce along the bottom, the illusion of current and future prosperity created by the daily purchase of S&P futures by The Fed's Primary Dealers. There will be no end to QE. Not now. Not later this summer. Not in 2014. Not ever. The only escape from under this mountain of endlessly leveraged debt is currency devaluation. Physical gold and silver will continue to be your only refuge. Buy some today. (And if you do so, please do it through one of our affiliates!)

I had expected hoped that price would recover today after yesterday's CoT-related selloff. So far, so good. Check this action in gold first. Note that price continues to be centered around the recovery trendline that began back on the overnight of the 18th. It also continues to battle a declining 20-day MA that is now near $1405 but stays resilient. This is a very good sign and, if it continues, foreshadows a jump through $1420 and a move back toward the late April recovery highs just below $1490.

And I've found something interesting on the silver chart. Maybe it's nothing. Worth no more than the paper it's printed upon. However, it is not and cannot be coincidence that all of these points on a chart are connected by this declining arc. And look at how the arc was right there to shove price lower on Sunday, the 18th. The Forces of Darkness tried to make it happen. They clipped price for over 10% in a matter of minutes. But a funny thing happened on the way to the beatdown. No additional sellers emerged. Instead of an accelerating drop into the $teens, price reversed and began to recover. We've been in a sideways, $1 range ever since. This has all the earmarkings of a bottom and a trend change. Will it? Can it? The BLSBS on Friday will likely hold the key.

Finally, today, we need to double back to a story that broke just as I was publishing yesterday's post. Our pal, DenverDave, sent me an email notifying me of a very peculiar change in the daily Comex data. It's a new disclaimer which The Comex apparently hopes will shield them from legal consequence should member vaults one day be shown to hold slightly less metal than is reported. The exact verbiage, which suddenly appeared on Monday is this:

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only."

With all ChurchLady sincerity: Well, isn't that special? So now The Comex (which is a futures market...and futures, being paper obligations, are entirely dependent upon trust and confidence) is telling us that the information provided to them by their members is not necessarily "accurate or complete"? What???

A very succinct analysis of this can be found at Jesse's place: :

"One can only wonder why the Exchange felt the need to add this statement now, after all these years. Especially when Comex eligible gold inventory levels are approaching record lows, and there is widespread mistrust of certain parties and their opaque market positions on this list.
And there are rumours of forced cash settlements in lieu of bullion delivery floating around. The Hong Kong Metals Exchange just folded, and forced cash settlements. And banks are cancelling physical delivery arrangements.
How can someone who is trading metals and storing them at the warehouse not be concerned about a declaration of force majeure without liability recourse? What is the purpose of a commodities exchange when there are no representations made that they even possess what one is trading?"

Look, the shils, disinfo agents and apologists for The Cartels can SPIN and deceive all they want. But use your eyes and your brain. There is now a mountain of individual dots just waiting for you to connect them. You can either blissfully sit and amidst the pile of shit that has been shoveled upon you for decades or you can prepare for the new paradigm. The choice is yours.

Have a great day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 163


Hunt brother · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:33pm

SP500 tight trailing stops...

The long SP500 position is a trade rather than an investment for many market players. This trade is "protected" with tight 5 to 8 percent trailing stops.

A sp500 below 1600 triggers the stops and the selling accelerates in a cascade.

Will the metals and miners tank along like 2008? No, the metals have already been hit and they may rise on short covering.

dropout · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:34pm


What goes around - comes around.

Here we go with those pesky fundamentals again! Nothing. Absolutely nothing has improved for the better.

The fundos don't even coast along, they become worse. The geo-politico maneuverings around the Syrian civil war just get stranger each day. One other moment such as this in history, is eerily similar. The period just before WW I from 1911 to the outbreak of war in 1914.

You had small countries at each other, backed by neighbors who had large armies, who in turn were backed by empires. Just as now we have Syria bickering with smaller countries, who in turn are backed by larger countries with some nuclear capability, backed by nuclear super powers.

See and here more;

GoldistheFuture beardeus · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:38pm


Yup. They did a reverse split and it has been hammered ever since the split. But I am now playing DUST and NUGT back and forth. Hold strong on each and you can play both all day and make money. These ETF's has been swinging $5-10 a day. Just when you think you should sell buy more and then right when you think it is going to break out to the upside, sell. It's like they know exactly where every Stop is set... Oh yea, they do...

Sad-descent Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:45pm


"This is why I believe that monitoring the yield on ten year notes is critical to understanding the first signs of the next financial crisis."

Great post.

My bet is the spread between the ten and corporates or munis will be where we see the first cracks.

DirkDirkler · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:46pm

China's "debt"

I hear that phrase so often. China's debt, China's debt fueled bubble etc etc. Let's look at some data.

China has done their version of QE, and they have 2,4tn $ of public debt, which is 40% of GDP. However, if they ever decide they can sell off their 3,4tn $ worth of FX reserves and have 1 tn left to toy with.

The 2,4tn $ number is official public debt. Since the 90ies China has undergone drastic social reforms, so they have unfunded obligations as well. However they are funded differently and therefore aren't as much a drag on state finances as in the western world.

So China is still a creditor nation, a net lender. Their debt is currently not an issue.

The US could not as easily take its 17tn $ of official debt and its nobody knows how much really of unfunded liabilities and pay it off with its 140bn $ of currency reserves.

Katie Rose · Jun 5, 2013 - 4:58pm

Rainbow Coalition Church

I met some wonderful old Hippies yesterday. They had a sign on the front of their banged up pick-up truck that said RAW MILK FOR SALE. I flagged them down, as my Ma Ma goat is not producing enough milk for five hungry babies. They were new to the area, and I was delighted to purchase raw Jersey milk for my baby goats. It is legal to sell raw milk for animals, and I needed some.

They are living entirely off grid, so I began asking for advice on off grid water pumps that can pump enough water for the barn, orchard, house and garden all at the same time. He had some ideas that I had not heard of before, and they sounded like they could work. That was exciting!

Then I began to complain about the Planning Dept here. He had an answer for that. I need to become a Church. I could join their church. Better yet, I needed to become a "church camp." He knew the law, and apparently "church camps" have a lot more flexibility than single family dwellings/farms.

I went away with a smile, only to have it totally wiped off my face by a program from last week on Hagman and Hagman. On it the whistleblower "V" stated that WW III has begun. TPTB need this war to unwind their derivative holdings. All one has to do is witness what is happening around Syria. He stated that too many sophisticated arms are headed into that region and Russia is not backing down.

Then Steve Quayle continued with the statement, "I tell people that they need to secure food, water and then PM's. You need to get food and an independent supply of water before you start stacking metals." Since Steve sells PM's, I felt he was being honest with the listening audience.

So I gave a call to my new Hippie friend, and began dialoguing on an off grid water alternative. The official off grid solution around here is $10,000 +. I figured an old Hippie would know of something a bit cheaper, especially since he has been living off grid for the last thirty years. And being an old Hippie myself, I liked his explanation a lot better than the 10K solution offered up here to the rural ranchers and farmers.

The program I listened to is here:

"V" had a good explanation of the Mark of the Beast already created by the Banksters and ready to be rolled out. It is a system of total monetary servitude.

I hope he was wrong about WW III having begun. I suspect he is not.

dropout · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:06pm

@ Katie Rose re: WW III

I concur. It has started. The middle east is its epicenter.

Anyone who is a student of world history, will see an eerilly similar situation between what occurred from 1911 to 1914 and now. Good luck. Been mostly off grid and self sufficent since 2006. I'm out of it (the rat race) and just looking in observing. Hence 'OutLookingIn.'

The Watchman · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:11pm
zman · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:29pm


I agree that watching the 10 year bond is the key, but like Turd said, the Fed will be watching the support line, and WILL NOT let it break.

What breaks down the bond market? Foreign sellers, something we have not really have seen yet? I really think no foreign nation wants to be the first to exist the US bond market, it will be considered an act of economic war against the US, no country wants that.

The other factor, heavy inflation, again something that we have not seen since QE started.

Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:32pm

Sad Descent

Glad You Mentioned Corporates. I Was Thinking Of Posting A Recent Corporate Bond Chart To Show That Recent Market Reaction:

It Doesn't Look Too Healthy To Me.

High Yield Corporates Have Dropped Off Quite A Bit Recently.

Sad-descent · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:49pm


Last month seems to have been a pretty sharp sell off. Even a short term corp etf I watch (I don't own it) has tailed off a bit over the last month. Same is true for a muni etf I watch for info only. One month doesn't make a trend, but that I think is where we could get a real scare if things continue.

There are just too many entities dependent on being able to roll debt at excessively cheap rates.

Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 5:54pm

ZMAN RE: Ten Year Note Rates

Says, "...but like Turd said, the Fed will be watching the support line, and WILL NOT let it break."

I can't recall this statement. I also don't agree as NO ONE, not even the fed, can control interest rates if they start to move up dramatically. Bond rates are controlled by demand. Demand is influenced by sentiment among buyers. If the main buyers are no longer positive about bonds, rates go up. No amount of monetizing will stop it once a point of no return is reached.

That "No-Return" is getting closer. The indicator is the ten-year note rate. Is it about to signal catastrophe? NO.

Will 3% rates signal a problem?---maybe. How about 4%?---Probably a problem, but no catastrophe. Will the acceleration increase once 3% is reached?---yes. That's when control begins to be lost.

TJeffson · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:04pm


You would be correct... Bernanke and the FED cannot control rates. The bond market is far bigger than Bernanke's printing press. He can postpone things some with Op. Twist etc but eventually those gimmicks will run out.

Dyna mo hum · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:12pm


I think WW3 is already up and running. Thing is "the average car buying public has not noticed yet". WW4 will be interesting as it will last forever being as it will be fought with sticks and rocks. Logistics is the never ending problem.

Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:20pm


Exactly and we have only history to guide us: This is where I think we're headed:

Stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a term used in economics to describe a situation where an inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high. It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa.

Stagflation is very costly and difficult to eradicate once it starts, in human terms as well as in budget deficits.

Stagflation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply..."

Excessive growth of the money supply taken to such an extreme that it must be reversed abruptly can clearly be a cause. Both types of explanations are offered in analyses of the global stagflation of the 1970s: it began with a huge rise in oil prices, but then continued as central banks used excessively stimulative monetary policy to counteract the resulting recession, causing a runaway price/wage spiral.

Sad-descent TJeffson · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:22pm

RE: Op Twist

I don't think the Fed has enough short-term paper to do any sort of twist type operation....Pretty much all-in on stupid from here on out I'm afraid.

stealthbear · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:28pm

information purposes?

 "This report is produced for information purposes only."

Seems to me that they should have said "produced for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. If the data isn't accurate, what informational use does it have?

(Just now had time to read Turd's post, so I am a little behind on this today.)

¤ · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:31pm

The Age of Aquarius

Video unavailable

SilverSurfers · Jun 5, 2013 - 6:38pm

Freakin A

Eric Sprott did a tellar job at KWN, I think his best ever. HOMER man.

Looks like CRUNCH TIME. dude ate a vegamite!! He is pumped up!!

Down Under
Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:04pm


Comex Gold Registered Ounces Available Nearing All Time Low - The Risk of Rehypothecation


'Registered gold' is bullion in the Comex warehouse that is available to futures contracts standing for delivery. There are also a much larger number of ounces stored, at least according to reports by some organizations, that is 'eligible' to be sold, if the owner of the bullion should decide to place it in the 'registered' category.

According to the chart below the number of registered ounces at the Comex are approaching a record low. That in itself has some significance, but I think the point of this chart is that the registered category typically reaches these low levels at major market bottoms.

Now, in addition to this, there is quite a bit of controversy and speculation that the bullion banks have been leasing out that customer gold that is being held in storage. That is what is known as rehypothecating.

Rehypothecating simply means that a financial institution uses an asset that is pledged as collateral or assigned for some specific reason as collateral for another transaction of their own. And these days these rehypothecation schemes tend to go to multiple stages like a daisy chain, or dominos. Bank A takes a customer asset and lends it out to Bank B. Bank B uses that same asset as collateral to Bank C. And Bank C uses that same asset once again.

I should note that even in the endgame stages of the exhaustion of a highly leveraged rehypothecation scheme, a more likely outcome would be to let the price of gold rise, and hope that this tempts new bullion supplies on to the market. This would allow the cycle of this scheme can go along for another turn of paper selling and price manipulation.

But I would not doubt that they will try and frighten out holders of bullion with more price raids. That scheme eventually fails as the bullion passes into stronger, more sophisticated hands. And the governments and people of the East are certainly doing their part to make it happen.

Down Range Norm · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:22pm

Latvia will become the 18th

Well that pretty much wraps up #19

wait for it.......................



Mantis · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:26pm

Seeking advice buying shares

Hi been interested in the conversation beardus has initiated. I'm starting thinking of getting some mining shares but not really sure where to start. i don't own any shares and never have (directly at least). can anyone recommend a good broker? (i'm in uk and prefer to do it online) or tell me some things to look for or pitfalls to avoid.

I just feel that the miners are so unloved just now it has to be a good time to buy enlightened Any advice much appreciated.


Ilya Repin · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:38pm

I think any talk or a top in

I think any talk of a top in Bonds is very premature and playing into the hands of TBTB that require the management of market perception for the resultant capital flows.

ES is at ATH and people are suggesting that the bond market has topped out.. The bond market has not even been tested yet. We are not in a "risk off" type situation, and bonds have harldy given up any ground considering where the ES has gone.

IMO "they" will blow the stock market and juice the bonds later this year.. but first they must make everyone think that bonds are dead so everyone shorts them.. thus providing short covering fuel.

I could be wrong of course.

Cry Me A River · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:46pm
Utilitarian · Jun 5, 2013 - 7:49pm

Provident has Silver Bars 0.89 over spot & free shipping -No min

Provident is a TF Metal affiliate and good site. Currently they have OPM 10 ounce silver bars for 0.89 over spot for any quantity and free shipping. The special ends on Friday 06/07 5PM CST

Newager23 · Jun 5, 2013 - 8:13pm

Beardeus Stocks

I recommend starting with gold and silver bullion. Right now PSLV (Sprott Silver ETF) has a low premium and is a great place to invest in silver bullion. After have bullion, go for GDXJ (Mid Tier / Junior Gold (and some Silver) Miners and SIL (Silver Miners ETF). These will return at least 300%, so most stocks don't make sense unless they can outperform these ETFs.

I have a list of 25 baggers and 50 baggers on my website and a Top 25 list. However, you have to be a member ($99). You can also search the database (which is the best on the Internet) with 500+ gold and silver mining stocks. In fact, my members have not found anything comparable.

Here is my current Top 25 list (compliments to my Turd Family). These are all potential 5 baggers or beyond.

(Column 4: My Rating, 3 is potential 5 bagger, 3.5 is likely 5 bagger, 4 is potential 10 bagger), Column 6: Current Stock Price, Column 7: Stock Category, Column 8: Shares Outstanding, Column 9: Market Cap)

Aurvista Gold Corp AVA.V Gold 4 Moderate 0.116 J-ER 63.00M $7.31M
Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. BGM.V Gold 4 Moderate 1.179 J-EM 136.00M $160.39M
Brigus Gold Corp BRD Gold 3 Moderate 0.66 MP 286.00M $188.76M
Canadian Zinc Corp. CZN.TO Silver 3.5 Moderate 0.435 J-NP 178.00M $77.43M
Carpathian Gold Inc. CPN.TO Gold 3.5 Moderate 0.213 J-NP 590.00M $125.47M
Chesapeake Gold Corp. CKG.V Gold 3.5 High 4.137 J-ER 48.00M $198.59M
Comstock Mining Inc. LODE Gold 3 Moderate 2.02 J-EM 105.00M $212.10M
Crocodile Gold Corp CRK.TO Gold 3 Moderate 0.169 MP 483.00M $81.71M
Global Minerals Ltd. CTG.V Silver 3.5 High 0.111 J-LS 145.00M $16.12M
Golden Minerals Co AUMN Silver 3.5 Moderate 1.76 J-SP 48.00M $84.48M
Gran Colombia Gold Corp GCM.TO Gold 4 Low 0.169 MP 500.00M $84.58M
Guyana Goldfields Inc. GUY.TO Gold 3.5 High 1.643 J-NP 132.00M $216.92M
Magellan Minerals Ltd. MNM.V Gold 4 Moderate 0.121 J-NP 129.00M $15.59M
Minco Silver Corp. MSV.TO Silver 3.5 Moderate 0.802 J-LS 66.00M $52.95M
Pretium Resources Inc PVG Gold 3 Low 8.37 J-LS 102.00M $853.74M
Richmont Mines Inc. RIC Gold 3.5 Low 1.94 J-EM 35.00M $67.90M
Rio Novo Gold Inc RN.TO Gold 4 Moderate 0.101 J-NP 135.00M $13.70M
Sandspring Resources Ltd. SSP.V Gold 4 Moderate 0.242 J-LS 147.00M $35.52M
Silver Standard Resources Inc. SSRI Silver 3.5 Low 7.86 EM 83.00M $652.38M
St Andrew Goldfields Ltd. SAS.TO Gold 3.5 Low 0.367 MP 381.00M $139.95M
Sunward Resources Ltd. SWD.TO Gold 3.5 Moderate 0.353 J-ER 192.00M $67.74M
Victoria Gold Corp. VIT.V Gold 3.5 Moderate 0.15 J-LS 364.00M $54.54M
Vista Gold Corp. VGZ Gold 3.5 Moderate 1.44 J-LS 103.00M $148.32M
Wildcat Silver Corp WS.TO Silver 3.5 Moderate 0.532 J-LS 140.00M $74.43M

· Jun 5, 2013 - 8:13pm


All you need to do is look at the military stocks. All the ones I'm watching up 30 and 40% YTD and I'd bet my piggy bank that they are gonna take off as we involve ourself in more wars and so does the rest of the world. Governments do not inflate the money supply to keep PBS on the air or to keep the parks open. They do it to maintain or obtain an advantage or dominance over others. 

Fidelity Select Defense and Aerospace (FSDAX) up 30% YTD

Northrup Grumman up 42% Long list, General Dynamics, 23% Rayethon, 32% Lockheed Martin 28%, Rockwell 27%

That's some good pocket change.

Magpie · Jun 5, 2013 - 8:17pm

Here we go..... A large American military force disembarked Tuesday, June 4, at the southern Jordanian port of Aqaba - ready for deployment on the kingdom’s Syrian border, debkafile’s exclusive military sources report. The force made its way north along the Aqaba-Jerash-Ajilon mountain road bisecting Jordan from south to north, under heavy Jordanian military escort. Our sources disclose that this American force numbers 1,000 troops, the largest to land in Jordan since the Syrian civil war erupted in March 2012. They are members of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Force carried aboard the USS Kearsage amphibious assault ship, which has been anchored off neighboring Israeli Eilat since mid-May. Upon landing, the marines took to the road in a convoy of armored vehicles including Hummers.

argent rampant dropout · Jun 5, 2013 - 8:20pm


" Nothing. Absolutely nothing has improved for the better."

Are you saying things have actually improved for the worse?? wink Actually, that's pretty good - In the last five years things have indeed "improved" for the worse! (Just joshing, Bro.)

Seriously, I have not read it yet, but I think Peter Schiff's book The Real Crash agrees with what you're saying. He says 2008 was just the first shock, not the real earthquake.

· Jun 5, 2013 - 8:53pm

Baby boomers are killing themselves at an alarming rate

Not an uplifting story but the grim reality. Most people are not prepared financially or psychologically to handle the changes we talk about. 

 Baby Boomers are committing suicide at an alarming rate: (they are facing a bleak future where the cost of living has risen faster than their pay...facing a retirement in poverty

Last spring, Frank Turkaly tried to kill himself. A retiree in a Pittsburgh suburb living on disability checks, he was estranged from friends and family, mired in credit card debt and taking medication for depression, cholesterol, diabetes and high blood pressure.

It was not the life he had envisioned as a young man in the 1960s and ’70s, when “people were more in tune with each other, people were more prone to help each other,” said Turkaly, 63, who owned a camera shop and later worked at Sears. “There was not this big segregation between the poor and the rich. . . . I thought it was going to continue the same, I didn’t think it was going to change.”

Turkaly said he regrets his attempt to overdose on tranquilizers, which he attributes to social isolation. But in one grim respect he is far from alone: He is part of an alarming trend among baby boomers, whose suicide rates shot up precipitously between 1999 and 2010.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
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12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
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11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
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