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Looking Better

392
Thu, Aug 25, 2011 - 2:28pm

As predicted (hoped), both metals found some buying today after a successful test of overnight lows. Silver consistently found buyers near 39 which is right near that upsloping trendline on the 6-hour chart. Gold triple-bottomed at 1705 and has since rallied almost $60. I'd expect these rallies to continue into tomorrow. But, what happens next?

All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe The Bernank will announce a new, massive $2T money-printing scheme to match the new debt ceiling. If he does, you can forget all about the H&S top stuff as it will be off to the races, instead.

Remember, if you're going to survive trading the PMs, you always have to sell some when everyone is buying and you always have to buy some when everyone is selling. You had an opportunity to buy earlier today. You will likely have another opportunity next week. Of course, "sometimes the only winning move is not to play." That's OK, too. Just keep stacking the physical and enjoy the fireworks. TF

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paper_8-25pmsilv15.jpgpaper_8-25pmsilv4.jpg

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  392 Comments

Silver is money · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:40pm

ZH says another gold margin hike is already inbound.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/caution-another-gold-margin-hike-imminent

BTW, we already hit $41.27 today in silver so the bounce may already be over with. 

TheGoodDoctor Vincent · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:43pm

@Vincent Looks like there seems to be a half life there on that chart for QE. If it is not big enough, how soon will QEIV be on the charts?

The next couple of weeks will be interesting:

1. European Banking crisis (Greek two years were yielding 40%+!) is not over

2. A gold knockdown because no QEIII tomorrow or a bounce if QEIII is announced

3. How soon QEIII will be announced or hinted at if not announced tomorrow

4. BoA and whether or not it will fail or be taken over

5. I think that if the 8/29 London Holiday is not successful at knocking down silver below $36 then look to 9/13 because will have been almost two months at that point since silver will have been below $36 concerning the supposed JPM derivatives issue that Max Keiser has been touting.

Also, Greenspan has been piping off in the media. Get this shit! Maybe Bix Weir is right!

Greenspan also said that he did not think gold, which reached a record above $1,900 an ounce this week, was in a bubble.

“Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency,” he said. “And the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/greenspan-says-the-euro-is-bre...

You know TheGoodDoctor likes the weirdness, but this is taking it to a new level! cheeky

BillAuAg Tesla · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:47pm

The Fiji Taku is a BEAUTIFUL coin! Gainsville quotes $85 each, but they are beautiful!

BillAuAg Tesla · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:47pm

The Fiji Taku is a BEAUTIFUL coin! Gainsville quotes $85 each, but they are beautiful!

Dr G Silver is money · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:49pm

So based on pure TA we are now to retest the $38.66 from this morning, and completely ignore the laundry list of motivating factors behind the spot price, including pure manipulation, fed announcement tomorrow, 3rd gold margin hike this month, etc.

I don't buy it, but I'm always up for learning.

Put another way, if the fed disappoints tomorrow, we are going down. If the fed doesn't or surprises us, $38.66 is in the rearview. If the C/C/C decide to muck things up again, $38.66 could be in the rearview on the downside. Hell, we could go to $37.50.

My point: screw the TA at this point. It makes us all feel good but it is often useless against the crap we are dealing with.

@BillAuAg, that's the gilded Taku you posted. The all silver one can be found for less, but it's a beautiful coin also, minus the old bag on the other side. I picked some up in late April for $49, which seemed like a steal of a deal then. It will feel that way again, I'm sure. Great coin.

silverbleve · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:50pm

I read a site with a lot of the same kind of info, the gamblers fallacy and so forth. When I was younger I was dumb enough to think I was good at roulette! Turns out I was just lucky, but I thought you might like this site too:

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

Lots of these gambling systems can actually be applied to trading, its entertaining if nothing else!

"No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking." — Albert Einstein

Shill · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:50pm

Now you know why I am in FXE puts..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/greenspan-says-the-euro-is-bre...

Dark Matter there are no noob questions m8 ask away, this is why we are all here to learn from one another.

Cheers m8

bobby · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:52pm

the hurricane hits NYC square in the face on Sunday

and another 6.0 or stronger earthquake happens at the same time?

redwood · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:54pm

That's the problem. Coincidence is the word we always use when we can't explain....that doesn't mean an explanation is not available. We just haven't found it...so I plan on being watchful, because my better instinct tells me to watch out. Usually when it's strong, and it is now, I'm more right than wrong. 

Your observation about GLD is also telling...nothing like leading the herd.

¤ · Aug 25, 2011 - 6:54pm

The Greenspan story is what you like to refer to as Bizarro World stuff.

On one hand we have his successor Bernanke telling us it's only a tradition and not a part of the monetary system pretty much. And then we keep hearing about Greenspawn talking up gold here and there and totally contradicting the Bernank and prepping the field for gold's emergence or he's laying down a massive psychological minefield regarding gold and it's pure disinformation to set the next big scam up for the banks?

The psychology and disinformation in all of this (and a lot of other political issue's) is immense and the amount of disinformation and distortion is even bigger in scope.

They are very good at this type of media disinformation glut because once a person reads something and retains it, it's there for a very long time and your left to wonder a lot of extreme "facts" that are put out there.

I think it was ZH referring to the nazi guy who was in charge of the SS. 

Goebbels? Something about the bigger the lie and the more you can do it is the best way to get away with something while the fog of trying to cipher through every bit of info. is overwhelming and your left not knowing what to believe due to the extreme nature and volume of the lies/facts.

They are playing mind games all the time imo and we rarely get the straight answer or the complete truth.

Shill · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:02pm

the hurricane hits NYC square in the face on Sunday

and another 6.0 or stronger earthquake happens at the same time?

Well we can only hope that Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon and a few other miscellaneous scum are standing on a fault line.

And so we pray :)

Ojibwemowin · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:04pm

At the LCS today there were three older folks selling stacks of 90% silver halves, quarters, dimes and one stack of war nickels. One lady was selling her gold jewelry and commented that the LCS paid more than the gold for cash guys at the mall. Thank God she shopped around as you could tell is was hard enough as it was for her to part with some heirlooms.

I and another guy were in buying. I picked up a morgan, a peace and 2 walking liberty halves.

Will be back next week to buy more 90% just like clockwork.

Candygram · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:13pm

What a BEAUTIFUL coin. I love mixed metals in art and jewelry, and when I saw that coin, I swooned! Too bad I could only afford the silver one when I visited Gainesville last Saturday :) I am more than happy with the purchase. So pretty!!!!!

Thanks for the pic!

Justin · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:18pm

Those of you who may frequent or randomly visit the Outer Banks from the north may be familiar with the Chesapeake Expressway(168 bypass). Just went for a walk around the lake behind my house, followed the trail around to where it runs parallel to 168, it's a parking lot right now in the northbound lanes, filled with tourists and residents fleeing the imminent crime scene. Nice to see so many people with good heads on their shoulders and using common sense!

Vincent TheGoodDoctor · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:19pm

@ TheGoodDoctor Thanks... Let's look

bobby Justin · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:21pm

Justin:

and be careful

my thoughts are with you and yours.

KC · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:22pm

This is going to be long winded, but I have to vent. On the 3rd of August, I received my $100 in face value quarters from Gainesville Coins. I went through them with my daughter so I could teach her about the coinage before 1965 and get some real money in her hands. Anyway, there was a 1968 Canadian Quarter in there by mistake. It was worth about $3.50. I call up Gainesville on the 5th. I want a complete set of $100 face value, not $99.75. They promise a coin will be sent to me. Two week later, I order another $100 in face value and I get the order yesterday. Still no missing quarter.

 I call them up. “It’s been three weeks and I don’t have my missing coin.” On hold for a while. They reply that I must send the Canadian Quarter back to them. Once they receive it, they’ll send me my replacement. Really? I’m actually thinking that I don’t know where the Canadian Quarter is. I really don’t remember where I put it. It’s not in the usual places where I would have placed it. Did I leave it with the original bag of $100? Hmmm. It’s hidden in a deep dark place and now I have to go retrieve the bag, sort through it, and mail the coin back to them. All for $3.50. My time is way more valuable than that and I’ve already spent too much time on this. I explain this to the Gainesville Rep. Why are you hassling me for $3.50? Why not try to keep a customer? I can go on a PM website and tell my story and cost you $1000’s in business.

 I get passed onto the next guy. Finally he says that they will send me the replacement quarter and a stamp and that I need to mail in the Canadian Quarter. “Ok, but right now I can’t find the Canadian Quarter so I can’t guarantee return. It’s worth $3. What’s the big deal?” THEN he says “I find it hard to believe that you sorted through the bag and you don’t know where the coin is!” I’m usually very easy going and rarely ever even raise my voice, but I yell “IT WAS THREE WEEKS AGO. I’M A VERY BUSY PERSON. I DON’T KNOW WHERE THE F**KING COIN IS AND NOW YOU ARE CALLING ME A LIAR. YOU BETTER GET THAT F**KING COIN IN THE MAIL TODAY!” So, that’s my experience with Gainesville Coins. I won’t ever do business with them again, and I don’t recommend them to anyone. Why do business with a company that won’t correct a problem without hassling you? What If you place an order with them and have an even bigger problem. GEEZ! If I want this kind of treatment, I’d bank with Chase! #$@#@!$#@% BTW, I recently had a small problem with an APMEX order. They corrected it quickly and without aggravation. Oh, and I found the Quarter about an hour later :|

ferretflat Mickey · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:24pm

You should keep and save all your coins. If the dollar is ever revalued it would be more economical for the Gov. to just declare a new value for the coins instead of replacing them. They would gradually be phased out an replaced by a cheaper aluminum coinage until vending machines and such can be refitted. The coins could easily be given a value several times their current worth. Most people have about $5 worth of change in their posesion at any given time.

Prize Fighter · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:25pm

Never let a crisis go to waste.....

Will Hurricane Irene, scheduled to hit the east coast this weekend, be a crisis of opportunity for the fiat masters? Will a bunch of mark-to-fantasy buildings need to be rebuilt? Probably will as they naturally get hurt after storms, but will Ben + Irene this weekend provide perfect storm cover? I can hear it now...."Hey, we're just the Fed....we can handle this money thing but this is a natural disaster of epic proportions so we definitely need $1T to clean up Wall St."

Just thoughts....who knows. My tin foil is getting scratchy and I may need a shower anyway.

UncleFester · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:25pm

GoodDoc,

Hope all is well. This is a healthy debate and I appreciate your perspective. I hope others understand this is a friendly discussion, as we are all trying to figure out where the world is going from here. In general, I agree with most of what you (and others) say about silver. Where I disagree, well…I’m merely viewing the situation from the flip side of the coin. I hope you don’t mind, I have copied some of your words in order to address and incorporate them. One point on the above charts: jewelry is but saved wealth flaunted in public. Now, let me dive in.

Indeed there is a secular bull market in all commodities, and I also believe it has a lot of room to run yet. The bull market floats all boats, but I think gold will stand out from the others because this stampede is caused by a currency crises. When the price of gold rises, its above ground stock doesn’t flow. Strong hands (CGs, CBs, sovereigns) are accumulating more as we speak! No other commodity moves like gold. “Gold does not have the industrial demand that silver does. Nor the properties.”  This is the reason! This is gold's source of strength during the spectacular destruction of a currency. When the currency collapses, commerce collapses, and when commerce collapses, commercial demand collapses. When commercial demand collapses, which one of the two charts could care less? Gold derives its value from the past not the future! When the transmission lines (commerce) fall, the electrons (currency) can either short to ground (stocks, bonds, commercial and government paper) or be stored in a battery (gold).

“Someone just posted today in a response to one of Turd's writings that there is 8.3 times gold above ground right now than silver.” This is another source of strength for gold when the currency fails. Only gold has the above ground stock, the volume, to save the $Quadrillion+ of wealth on the world’s books. Even a small portion of this wealth moving into silver would launch its paper price as you have suggested. In essence, the silver demand chart would be transformed to the gold demand chart. This is a possibility one would be wise not to ignore. But once the currency is fixed, and the world will demand that it be fixed, the markets will resume and silver demand will revert back. Mr. Market puts metal where it is most useful, to maximize its utility. Silver's utility is industrial, gold's utility is in saving wealth. That is why I speculate in silver, but save in gold! Silver requires that I have good timing, while gold does not. There is good currency to be made in silver during this transition, but I want to live through it through gold.

“When there is no gold left to be had, money will flow even more into silver than it is now.”  Minor point of disagreement here, but with major implications. Currency flows through a product not into it. When I give currency to my local coin guy, the currency can find its way back to re-bid the physical, even back to the identical coin store. The same stock of paper can flow through gold or silver multiple times and therefore bid the paper price higher each time. The paper price will rise to nose-bleed levels until physical is released from strong hands. Strong hands hold more gold than silver! Why? The Bernank says its tradition, but the demand chart says its real money (wealth reserve). So there is always gold to be had, it’s just a question of…at what price! Many here already intuitively know this. They will not sell their gold until they get a sweet deal on land, is a perfect example.

Sorry for the length of this post. Good health and happiness to you and yours,

Fester

WineGuy · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:27pm

Another AU Margin Hike ....

Option Expiry Time ......

BB speaks tomorrow at the JHol ... will our precious metals soar or dive

Gold is a Bubble, Blah Blah Blah ...

Should I buy or should I wait ...

Pardon my language, but wake the FUCK UP! This shit has been going since Gold was $540. When you have some excess worthless fiats laying around purchase some physical AU/AG and sit back. Drink some wine if you must, relax and enjoy yourself. When your right sit tight. 

Richard Booze KC · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:31pm

KC, I have had excellent experience with Gainesville Coins -- diversity of stock, good prices, quick shipment. 

Sounds like what we may "have here is a failure to communicate".

Send them their quarter and give them another chance.

Keep stackin'!

TheGoodDoctor ¤ · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:32pm

@DPH I think it is more so that when you confuse people and they don't know what to do they would likely be more apt to sell. If they can't figure out their own thesis they would just dump.

One of the things that really opens your eyes once you have awakened is thinking for yourself. This hands down is the most important thing. People that don't think for themselves follow false leaders and/or the herd. One has to find the leader in themselves to be able to believe in oneself.

I'm not saying there are not good leaders, but with the recent Congress debt ceiling bullshit is a pure example of false leaders.

In my opinion there are three types of leaders.

1. Pied Pipers that think they are doing the right thing but don't know what the hell they are doing. These are the folks that jump on any leadership book that comes out and touts it as gospel. The FISH Philosophy, Who Moved My Cheese etc. They are also Pied Pipers themselves usually following some other false leader.

2. The leaders that lead for power. These are power mongers, dictators and micro managers. Massive egos. Their way or the highway. Use the fear principle. Workers should be happy to have a job. That type of an attitude.

3. Those that lead to accomplish goals and believe in the common good and realize the value of those that helped them get to those goals. Usually, these same folks deflect any compliments to those that work for them. The reason these leaders are successful is because they get buy in from those that work for them. More of a mentor.

Now any one of these can be successful IMHO. But I would much rather work for a #3. My point is, you can decide which kind of leader you want to be even for your daily life. But I think a #3 is probably the most enlightened.

mrgneiss · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:34pm

@Uncle Fester - I'm definitely open to different viewpoints and yours is a good one. However, if we get the kind of economic/commercial collapse above that you are suggesting, much worse than 2008 - what the hell are you going to use gold for? In that kind of situation it would be tools, food, ammo, solar panels, water filters, bicycles, horses, medicine etc etc that will have value and maybe junk silver.

If we don't get that kind of collapse - then we will still have industrial and investment demand for silver and your premise will be negated, and even though we will probably get much devaluation/inflation, both gold and silver will remain great stores of value, to be traded in for short term fiat needs.

¤ · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:41pm

My Dear Extended Family:

I am amazed at the day later geniuses that send out dire warnings on gold. Selling against the upper two Angels was obvious. There is no top in gold.

Kenny places the odds at 50/50 that yesterday's low was the low. He says that if it was not then the low is not far below.

I have never seen such capitulation among people especially in outrageously undervalued gold shares. Pros were dropping dead today. In bullion you had to walk close to the building to be safe from the golden flyers.

I have told you time and time again that gold will be violent in its exponential stage. What you have seen is nothing compared to what is to come. Truth be known, this kitchen is going to get hotter by the day so if you cannot handle the heat sell partially at each Angel until you have cut yourself back to the sleeping well size position.

For heaven's sake stop barfing into weakness. Stop selling weakness and buying strength. That is a kindergarten type error.

Stop the margin. It will kill you. Stop watching every tick. That is certain to make you crazy.

You will in the future be very sorry you sold down to a sleeping position at Angels, but stopping pain is not an illogical purpose.

Respectfully,
Jim

NW VIEW California Lawyer · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:48pm

Censorship depends upon who is holding the fascist stick!! If we say to those who posted " you are weak and unworthy of my attention" and "then leave", is this not fascist and censorship?? It is one thing to ask others to consider their posts but quite something different to invite them to leave. We could try this case before the jury and see where the censorship ruling lies. I have not posted anything against others and will not. There is a side of darkness and a side of Light and they both will be here until the end. I will continue to look for the good and not censor . j.m.o.

¤ · Aug 25, 2011 - 7:57pm
Video unavailable
FriedEggs · Aug 25, 2011 - 8:00pm

Especially for ScottJ and other tin heads... if you can open your mind and please click link (its just radio - nothing to watch) while your reading and surfing - and give 'Spaceman' a chance...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiyXMVxlpu4&feature=player_profilepage

This is from last Saturday's August 20, 2011 program (which i missed and listening to at moment) and i posted on here because he is actually touching on a bit about the financial crisis and the nwo... very interesting stuff... nevermind AJ. If you like more, go to that cosmichippo's channel on youtube and you can watch the rest. i wish he had them in longer increment then just 15min...

Fried(e)

P.S. love the pics...lol

¤ · Aug 25, 2011 - 8:03pm

Market Pulse Archives

Aug. 25, 2011, 7:57 p.m. EDT

CME cuts margin requirements on crude-oil futures

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Exchange operator CME Group Inc. /quotes/zigman/107063/quotes/nls/cme CME -0.02% on Thursday reportedly reduced margin requirements to trade U.S. crude-oil futures. Maintainance margins on crude-oil futures for speculators were cut by 4% to $6,000 per contract for light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from $6,250 previously.

DPH: $100 crude anyone?

redwood · Aug 25, 2011 - 8:09pm

Thanks for that from Santa. It's enlightening to hear his words, always because of his wisdom, experience and altruism. But here's the catch:

"I have told you time and time again that gold will be violent in its exponential stage. What you have seen is nothing compared to what is to come."

Gold's trend from 2007 to 2009 was also upward. It was also violent. Everyone needs to ask themselves if the degree of the amplitude of gold's journey (and silver) can be tolerated. Even Santa himself recently advised to ease up on gold's shares. So clearly he sees the advantage of not riding the deep swings at all times, as well. I think we are all very thankful to Turd who helps us navigate this seemingly endless journey.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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