Looking Better

Thu, Aug 25, 2011 - 2:28pm

As predicted (hoped), both metals found some buying today after a successful test of overnight lows. Silver consistently found buyers near 39 which is right near that upsloping trendline on the 6-hour chart. Gold triple-bottomed at 1705 and has since rallied almost $60. I'd expect these rallies to continue into tomorrow. But, what happens next?

All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe The Bernank will announce a new, massive $2T money-printing scheme to match the new debt ceiling. If he does, you can forget all about the H&S top stuff as it will be off to the races, instead.

Remember, if you're going to survive trading the PMs, you always have to sell some when everyone is buying and you always have to buy some when everyone is selling. You had an opportunity to buy earlier today. You will likely have another opportunity next week. Of course, "sometimes the only winning move is not to play." That's OK, too. Just keep stacking the physical and enjoy the fireworks. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 25, 2011 - 5:09pm


I am also of the opinion that the speech tomorrow will contain more than the usual mix of half-hearted optimism and a hefty helping of lies. It's clear they've beaten the "recovery" mule to death for the past two years. So much so that its carcass is no longer recognizable. While I don't expect specifics, something to the effect of "More drastic measures are now needed." will suffice in stirring the pot enough to justify even more unprecedented intervention in the economy. I base this belief not on financial theory but on command and control theory. The pres. is currently sunning himself on the Vineyard with the East Coast Elite. As soon as he's done, he's officially kicking off his $1 billion reelection campaign. You can bet that since the downgrade he's had non-stop buzzing in his ear from the political hacks to "do something, do anything" on the economy. Of course actually solving the problems would be too difficult /unpopular, so it's time to invent a crisis and provide a prefabricated, superficial "response." I believe we will see the set up for that tomorrow. This time, it is different.

Aug 25, 2011 - 5:10pm

@ Fried Eggs

I tipped your hat on your post, I thought it was very good. I assumed it was a response to my point about symbolism....

It definitely is all over if you know what you are looking for.... and once you are aware, it really tells a different story....

Symbolism all over with eagles, and crosses. Jordan Maxwell and Michael Tsarion have very interesting comments about many of these ancient symbols.

Just for others who like Tin Foil hats as well, do you see a connection?






Just food for though... Maybe we should should bring this to a symbolism thread.


And, as far as "Mod" Title, please no need for the use (we are getting new names soon anyways to separate the person's perspective from role in moderating). And... don't tell the Turd, but the only thing I have been doing as a mod is look at reported comments and decide whether or not they are spam (sometimes I am slow/forget). I am just another Turdite, with my own perspective that is learning day by day, just like most here. We are all equal here, even if some think that the above conversation is Tin Foil hat worthy. :)

Hard Rain
Aug 25, 2011 - 5:11pm

JP Morgan...

...up to illegal behavior again. They are so corrupt, they can't help themselves.



Aug 25, 2011 - 5:13pm

Melting is not necessary

Do you melt your metal bars or coins or can you sell them for fiat = value of their material? There is no need to melt them, they are worth their metal value regardless of whether you melt them or not.

Aug 25, 2011 - 5:41pm


I'm glad you reposted, as I have limited time to search the previous ones. My take on silver is the flip side of the same coin, pun intended. My response will follow shortly.

Cheers, Fester

Aug 25, 2011 - 5:43pm

EE is getting ready for September

Vacations are not over for the summer doldrums until after the September 5th. September is also the strongest month for PM seasonals. All that you have witnessed this last week has been in preparation for the "PM blast off " they know is coming in September. This will be their last opportunity to smash the price of PM's so easily. Just as May was the beginning of the weakest part of the summer. Sell in May and go away. Turd's projections are right on accurate and consistent with all other fundamental factors affecting the PM's in the short term.

This well timed and executed "Smashdown" was orchestrated with boldness and precision, but many of us suspect that it is not over yet, and I concur. I stated earlier in the week that we would not be out of the woods until after the fifth of September. I would love to see the big strong seasonal buyers come in early and smash the hell out of these bastards who created this artificial phony smashdown. But, it must be remembered that it was they who ran up the gold market into a parabolic move in the process of covering their shorts, only to knock it down again going into the end of the month options expiry. God, how many times have we seen this nonsense.

So, they run up the price themselves only to create the instability necessary to change the rules and knock it down again. Problem, reaction, solution. They orchestrate the crisis, causing volatility (parabolic rise), reaction (margin increases), solution (smashdown). The financial markets are not the only place they use this very old political strategy.

Yes, this correction was necessary, because they made sure it was going to be necessary by causing this artificial parabolic rise in the first place, just as they did in April with silver. Perhaps we are seeing, right now, those big seasonal buyers returning as we speak, as we rebound very nicely today. Let's hope EE does not succeed in another "Smashdown" as Turd suggest using another margin increase. If they do, it will only make the fireworks this fall all the more spectacular. QE3 must become a reality or we are headed for a catastrophic collapse this October, traditionally the most dangerous time for the general stock markets.

Dark Matter
Aug 25, 2011 - 5:45pm

Waiting for 1650

Could you explain to a newbie why Gold took off unexpectedly today - at least for me. I thought we were gonna see 1650. Are we going to it next week?

I don't know what to expect after the Bernanke speech: A rise or a fall in Gold prices? I've got no idea how to predict which way it will go.

I Am The Unknown Comic
Aug 25, 2011 - 5:50pm

Puttin' On The Ritz

@tesla and @fried eggs - I know fashion is a matter of style, but may I suggest my genre of tinfoil hat (see my avatar). I prefer the ones with tiny pinpricks in the foil at the front, open ear area to allow sound in but still keeps MSM programming out. Ms. Cat procured a new hat for me as an Anniversary present, but as you can see, I think the style is a little too "avant garde"/French for my American tastes (do you think Ms. Cat could tell I didn't like it?):

Aug 25, 2011 - 5:52pm

Point Taken...

Ok Scott. was looking for the angle your were projecting there. I see now. Thank you.

I did quickly read the Rothschild link, but had not seen it.

enjoy the weather! must not b in the path of Irene!

All kinds of sht hitting the fan this weekend, see u on the flip side next week!

Aug 25, 2011 - 5:53pm



what is the BAYER symbol posted for?....

Dr G Dark Matter
Aug 25, 2011 - 5:57pm

@Dark Matter None of us know

@Dark Matter

None of us know which way it will go because we don't know what he will say tomorrow. The metals react violently in the short-term to whatever he says. In the long term they will react to what the Fed does (and this is bullish for the metals no matter what is said). QE to infinity is a given. In some form or another that will occur. But what will he say tomorrow? Who knows.

Economical Disaster Gramp
Aug 25, 2011 - 5:57pm


I noticed your chemtrail vid and post is GONE..

for your info it looks like they took out TED GUNDERSON the guy on the vid..a couple of weeks ago.


Aug 25, 2011 - 6:00pm

Margin hikes and Market

Margin hikes and Market makers has to police the market because volatility is bad, what a bunch of bull! They don't like free market moves, it might bury their business. But when they need to support the latest criminal financial innovations of the day they say its good for the flow of liquidity, and smooth the workings of the market. The big players run the markets and there is no end to their innovations of bullshit to promote their view and MOPE the masses!

BTW Thanks, i am doing fine riding the bull and stacking my PM's

Endzeit Tesla
Aug 25, 2011 - 6:02pm


Gold OI (-8,560 total contracts)


where do you see the OI number that it dropped that amount?

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:06pm


Darkmatter, you aren't going to get specific exact recommendations.

No one here can do more than guess.

Some of the guesses here are better educated than others.

90% of the people on Turds blog will say in 12 months time it will be higher.

Other than that no one can be more specific. If you want to gamble at the casino, then you can try to make shorter term guesses.

If you can not formulate your own plan by parsing the discussions here its likely that these investment vehicles are not appropriate for you.

I think its up from here with a possible detour down early next week.

Right now my paper trading account is 1/3 in December silver calls, and 2/3 in cash.

Note that I personally call my paper trading account my casino account.

Real assets are shiny, somewhat boring and have no leverage or counter party risk.

The access procedure for these assets may require a shovel.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:10pm

Post Gone

Repost, accidently removed it...

Rothschild <==> Bauer <==> Bayer

Now I am going out to enjoy the air, I keep finding myself behind the computer...

Unless the chemtrails get me :O

Former FBI Chief Ted Gunderson Says Chemtrail Death Dumps Must Be Stopped


And thanks for the information about Ted, I read about his passing.

Tin Foil hat is squeezing my brain!

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:13pm

comments on Jackson's Anus

Are people really naive enough to believe that a stooge-minion like Bernanke is going to get out a starter pistol and then sound off the beginning of QEIII at Jackson's Anus?

They have already backdoored QEIII. It is underway. They will not announce it. It is too politically unpalatable to do so and they do not play by rules, they make rules. The entire financial system is based in trickery and deceit. Now why would they tell you when and how much they will be printing. They want Gold up gradually to devalue the dollar but they do not want it spiking to the moon and creating hysteria.

Don't waste your time waiting for this dweeb to open his mouth. If I had wanted to be a proctologist and study the art and movement of feces I would have applied to med school a long time ago. Bowel Movement Ben is a bum. Watch price and volume imo that's all that matters.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:14pm

Investing tip.

Was going to wait until next week (after all of the impending drama,) but made a quick trade in silver today based on Turd's "hunch."

I made a small profit, and plan on "feeding the Turd" again when and if I sell tomorrow.

I get so much from this site, and from ALL of the posters, and from all of the links that you posters provide, that I cannot tell you what you all mean to me and my family. Thank you all.

A small investing tip from me to you...

[It almost always brings me luck to "feed the Turd" after a profitable trade.]

Try it sometime.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:16pm

I would not be long over the

I would not be long over the weekend.

Bah! I am long and strong in calls....bring it.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:19pm


The Trouble With Trading

The trouble with trading is that traders are mortal men. Mortal men can't do things that superman can do. One main thing I've noticed that mortal men CAN NOT do is predict the future. Predicting the future may be good entertainment on the cover of a tabloid in the grocery store, but it just doesn't seem to work trying to guess where metals prices and/or prices of anything will go.

My observation is that guessing right actually works sometimes. I don't know how many times I guessed at something in my lifetime only to watch it come out the way I thought it would. The trouble with that outcome is that it fools the average mortal man into thinking he's a superman.

Now, I don't know about you all, but superman was a fictional character. In fact even Lois Lane had trouble believing a mild-man reporter could transform himself into a superman just by jumping into a phone booth.

So, my conclusion here would be to call up your broker and have a phone booth delivered to your home--or better yet, tell him to liquidate your account and send you a check where upon you rush desperately to your nearest coin shop all sweating and anxious. Tell the coin dealer, "give me your coins for this worthless fiat paper and no one gets hurt!"

During my more "informative times" while playing craps, I decided to write down each decision. I had a list a mile long on whether the shooter made his point or 7'd out. One day, I brought that list in to see if I could match the randomness of the decisions and "predict" ---LOL!, the outcome of the dice and thus win playing craps.

The pit boss walked over and asked what my list was all about. When I told him, he said, "so let me get this straight---you're trying to discover where you are in the middle of infinity?"

That comment made me think about trading as really a form of gambling. There is no way to win in trading except as a broker collecting commissions from people who think they can predict outcomes based on past history.

Consider the calculation of pi---a truly random set of numbers. Yet there are sequences where 5 of the same digit occur in a row:


If you take 10 million digits of Pi, you get exactly 200 cases where there are 5 of the same digit in a row. And at position 763 there are six nines in a row. This is known as the Feynman Point.

My "point" is that if you were to see things like this (trends or patterns) in prices of silver or gold or anything, you'd try to make sense of the apparent "order" displayed, but unfortunately, it's as hard as finding order of a set of 15 pool balls after the break. There are just too many influences on the price of silver, gold or anything else to trade them. The only thing you can say about trading is that a trader is "somewhere in the middle of infinity" --paying commissions.

As mortal men, we can not know our future as it hasn't been invented yet. The universe is expanding into what is now nothingness. Until we get there there isn't a future. Therefore using something you've seen in this current timeframe to predict what will occupy a space full of nothingness in the future is for people who want to tell themselves lies.

Therein lies the "rub"! The fundamentals can be recognized, quantified, analyzed and acted upon, but predicting the future is for superman!


Aug 25, 2011 - 6:20pm
Aug 25, 2011 - 6:22pm


Thanks for posting your intelligent comments, because fundamentally I cannot disagree with you. Among others, two announcements have been bothering me a great deal. The first was JPM announcing 2500 gold by the end of the year (and all the attendant pushes for both metals on MSM) and Soro pulling out of his GLD fund. Admittedly it is GLD, but since it is tied to the price of gold, one cannot ignore.

As we all know a seismic crash, forecasted to be greater than 2008 has been referred to my many respected commentators in alternative media. Hence the decline in precious metals miners may be imbedded in that scenario. In other words, your forecast could conceivably be for the period mid to end of September to the end of the year. For those who hold physical, it is not an issue, because we can assume a continued upward trend in the aftermath. Both for those who hold miners, an abortive return to 2008 levels or worse, could be very painful.

Dark Matter
Aug 25, 2011 - 6:24pm


Sorry for my newbie questions. I was just puzzled as I expected 1650. Sorry for asking.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:26pm


Silver Wealth....Jacksons Anus! Pretty friggin' random and funny

Shill....love the attitude. I feel the same way about being long.

I paid a bit too much (.99)for my GG calls earlier in the week and I kind of figured I would end up doing so. It's not bugging me because I just couldn't see myself without any gold position at all going forward throughout all of this. I feel secure and I'm ready.

Eric Original
Aug 25, 2011 - 6:30pm


Me too buddy. Bring it!!

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:30pm

What if?

What if we woke up one day and the headlines read "No gold. Shortage of Gold..all the american eagles are sold out..no bars." What would happen. What would happen to the paper markets, the spot price of gold...

And here's a question for those that now more...Who gave the comex the right to have the spot price of gold based on paper. Why do the rest of the world allow it. Isn't there another method whereby the spot price can be linked to? How does this work.

What if, every asain bought one oz of silver? And what if some of the real weatlhy gold bugs bought futures and demanded their gold. Between Sprott, Sinclair and others....they could rape them of their gold...then what.

I smell reveloution -- what they do is criminal...but if you belive in Karma...there's no free lunch

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:31pm


Thanks for the link to the Kitco-like gold/silver charts at goldprice.org and silverprice.org

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:34pm

Dark Matter

No need to apologize. Newbies and their questions encourage those long in the tooth to reexamine their well worn, sometimes ill conceived assumptions. One can never do that often enough. So keep it coming.

Silver is money
Aug 25, 2011 - 6:37pm

I'd love to say otherwise,

I'd love to say otherwise, but I have yet to see anything today that is beyond a normal bounce after a significant waterfall decline. 50% tops in these bounces give $1809 gold and $41.43 silver as targets for the metals before we test today's lows all over again.

Significant moves above these two levels would negate the short term bearishness.

Aug 25, 2011 - 6:40pm


The JPM thing has been bothering me also, your not alone.

I don't trust anything they ( or Goldman Suks) say about the markets going forward and that gold prediction made wonder what might be going on for them to telegraph such a price.

Maybe they were just feeding this latest Au run-up that we just experienced so that they could herd as many week hands into a postion where JPM knew the market was going to sell off into O/E week anyway.

A $2500 target out of the blue was aggressive by them. Maybe JPM has a huge silver problem but are well off on their gold positions? Idk what to think.

I do know one thing for sure...almost 2 weeks after they drew attention to their gold forecast, GLD becomes the biggest SPDR out there during the week where the biggest one day gold sell off happens. Coincidence?


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