Building Pressure

Thu, May 9, 2013 - 1:07pm

As if my head wasn't swimming enough, I spent about an hour on the phone with Jim Willie this morning.

As you might imagine, we had a free-wheeling conversation that drifted from topic to topic. Of all the things we discussed, I'd like you to consider this:

Did you even know that this meeting was taking place this week? Have you seen coverage in the mainstream press? Did CNBS send LIESman or Headiromo over for live reports? Here's the summary and source link:

"On May 7-8, 2013, Istanbul (Turkey) will host the Global Finance in Transition conference. The event is organized by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey jointly with the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and the Russian Ministry of Finance.
Representatives of G20 finance ministries and central banks, international organizations, research institutions and businesses will take part in the conference. Head of Turkey's Central Bank Erdem Basci, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Sergey Storchak and Executive Director for the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Marc Uzan will give the opening remarks at the conference.
Five panel discussions are planned as part of the event. They will cover the international financial architecture, in particular, changes in the flow of global investments, local bond markets and growth in emerging economies, incentives and determinants of investment and other issues. In addition it is expected that new instruments and incentives for making the global financial system safer will be suggested during the forum."

Did you know there was such a thing as the "Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee"? Wouldn't you like to know how the panel discussions of "international financial architecture" or "flow of global investments" went? Also, it was "expected that new instruments and incentives for making the global financial system safer will be suggested". Oh, really? That sounds interesting. But of course, CNBS doesn't care. Their main story right now is "Forget Software. Hardware Is Where It's At!" Nero fiddles while Rome burns...

Much appears to be taking place while hiding in plain sight. You see the events and wonder if they are all, somehow, interconnected. I would suggest to you that they are. The problem is, like anything else, you and I won't clearly see how they connect until after the fact, after all is said and done. But suffice it to say, there are connections to be made from just these examples:

  • Western and Japanese debt monetization and QE to
  • Chinese direct currency swaps to
  • LBMA member default to
  • German gold repatriation to
  • China gold imports to
  • Shanghai gold deliveries to
  • Cyprus to
  • Gazprom to
  • The Tamar gas field to
  • Israel bombing Syria and, by proxy, Iran to
  • Netenyahu visiting Beijing to
  • The end of the petrodollar to
  • The historic April raid on gold price and draining of the GLD to
  • The BRICs Development Fund to
  • The latest FOMC language about "raising" QE to
  • .......

I could continue but I'll stop there. I think you get the picture. As it relates to the precious metals, I think we all understand that there is currently a growing rush to get physical possession of metal. Whether it is from/out of Western central bank vaults, from LBMA vaults, from Comex vaults, from the GLD, from the U.S. Mint and other global mints...whatever/wherever...the push is on to redeem paper certificates for actual physical metal. Why now? Who cares?!? In a crisis of confidence, the initial cause is of no import. What matters is the escalating belief and fear that "If I don't act now, I'll be left holding the bag".

And so we've seen:

  1. Comex inventories plummet to the lowest levels since 2008.
  2. GLD inventory plummet to lowest level since 2009.
  3. JPM New York vault nearly emptied.
  4. German gold repatriation plan.
  5. 470 metric ton reduction of Comex Commercial net short position since 9/12.
  6. 800 metric ton Chinese import for 2012. 233 metric ton import for just March 2013.

And this is seeming to accelerate. Look at this chart of Comex inventories:

And look at the increasing rate of Chinese imports:

And then check this out. The GLD has now shed almost exactly 300 tonnes of its "inventory" since the first of the year. That's about 22% in just a little over four months! But did you know that it took:

  • Two months to drain the first 100 tonnes (1/2- 3/7)
  • Six weeks to drain the next 100 tonnes (3/8-4/15)
  • And just three weeks to siphon the next 100 tonnes (4/16- 5/8)

And this week's CoT will almost assuredly show a further drop in the Comex net short position of the bullion banks. I posted this yesterday but it's worth repeating:

  • On 9/11/12, two days before QE∞ was announced, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 contracts. That's 23,709,100 troy ounces or a whopping 737 metric tonnes of paper gold.
  • As of last Tuesday, April 30, The Gold Cartel is now net short 95,563 contracts, a reduction of nearly 60%! And they've reduced their potential delivery obligation by 440 metric tonnes to 297!

We'll get another CoT tomorrow and, for the reporting week, gold was down $23 while total OI was UP by nearly 17,000 contracts. I'll be stunned if almost all of the OI increase doesn't come from Spec shorting and Cartel buying.

Again, all of the things I've mentioned are spectacular in their own right. For example, the German repatriation story or the drawdown in the GLD. Taken in concert, however, it becomes quite clear that something significant is coming over the horizon. But what??? THAT is the question we must attempt to answer in the days ahead.

Anyway...time to wrap this up, I suppose. First, some charts. Note that gold and silver are marking time here. Silver is particularly interesting as it is clearly caught in a pennant that is rapidly closing. Keep a close eye on this as it portends a breakout sometime very soon.

And since I mentioned my friend, The Jackass, many of you are probably clamoring to hear from him, too. No, I don't have a podcast for you but Kerry Lutz does. A link is below. Jim and I may record something in a couple of weeks.

OK, that's all for now. Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 10, 2013 - 10:32am

Gin: taking the edge off

Hendricks is fine, bought some last son drank 98% of it! Went back to the Liquour store to replace it and this Spirit Bear Gin caught my attention, so I bought a bottle. Top tier gin, reminds me of Tanqueray No.10 but no hint of grapefruit. Since then its all I have imbibed, it's a bit scarce so when I found 5 bottles in the store I had no choice but to remove their inventory.

Only problem is I can't get stupid on Gin no matter how much is consumed, but beer...well...

May 10, 2013 - 10:35am

Happy news and unrelated to

Happy news and unrelated to metals but a fine example of education working when mainstream had given up. Good night all. Time for beddie byes here :)

A teenager who was diagnosed with autism and told he would never be able to read has been tipped as a future Nobel prize winner.

Jacob Barnett, who was diagnosed with moderate to severe autism at two years old, is now studying for a Master's degree in quantum physics.

Experts say the student from Indiana has an IQ higher than Albert Einstein's.

His mother Kristine Barnett, author of The Spark: A Mother's Story of Nurturing Genius, told BBC Breakfast she initially found it hard to get Jacob the right education.

May 10, 2013 - 10:36am


Great balance video, thanks.

John Galt
May 10, 2013 - 10:40am

Bo Polny - My Theory

My sarcastic theory is that Bo Polny has an inside source at American Idol and, as such, had advanced knowledge of Randy Jackson leaving the show. That seems to be the big news right now in the world of distraction and illusion.

That said, the big cooler talk today will be who going to replace RJ - rather than what should be the real news, namely the choreographed PM smack down/ongoing fiat currency debasement/and Bernank's double speak today to assure the masses that all is well while directing attention away from the main stage being set for WW3 which, in turn, will be the grand head fake for the pending global currency reset IMHO.

I can truly understand Turd's complete exasperation with all this.

It must feel like taking a stiff piss into an even stiffer wind every day.

May 10, 2013 - 10:41am

@Pilipat Yup, so it goes

in Canada as well. The trick is to not be so attached to your money and just let the thieves take all they want. IF a person can get out with a shirt on their back at least they still have that.

Did some searching in Costa Rica last year, thinking about moving, with their tax structure it really wasn't what I was looking for...taxation will only get worse there. Next stop (maybe) this year is Brazil. Just another bit of research to add to the pile.

Island Guy
May 10, 2013 - 10:41am

Give Turd Credit for a Good Call

Turd catches a lot of flak when his predictions are too rosie. However, I would like to point out that yesterday (Thursday) Turd pointed out that the pennant formation was closing on silver and a big move could be expected - up or down. When this is combined with the fact that Bernanke is speaking today, and as Turd has often pointed out this is often accompanied by a beat down in metals (probably due to the trading computers being set on hair trigger), the drop in silver prices today was basically predicted by Turd.

So where are the posts telling him "Good Job"?

May 10, 2013 - 10:42am

Pucker Up, gone; DPH, gone; Turd wants to get drunk ?

You still have ME .... and I will never put myself .... on my own "Ignore List" .... I don't even have one .... I don't need a prophylactic device .... to protect me from the dildos of life .... I can ignore people .... even when they're shouting in my face .... toughen up Turds .... our day is nigh ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Knute Rockme World Tour PS: Look for my book .... Quorum of Quislings .... paperback .... in a bookstore near you .... where Fiat is still accepted for paperback books ! PSS: Feelypat .... thanks for the input .... of your little finger .... in my TSA approved .... bung hole ! PSSS: FunnyTwoJews .... I like the cut of your jabberwonky .... I like MonoTubes .... monorail cars .... in vacuum tubes .... like the money tubes at Costco ?

May 10, 2013 - 10:42am

Just listened to the last of Bernanke's speech

Well the US BOND isn't taking kindly to the speech, now down $1.33.

It was all about moral hazzard and ways and means for orderly dismemberment
of the the TBTF.

PM's getting mugged again. Amazing.

Something big is up, imo. One of the TBTF is tettering I thing and
the market is acting as though all is right in the world.

The general market is finally reacting "logically" Dow futures negative

My take from what I heard is that the Fed and Global Banking Cabal
are trying to figure out how minimize the coming crash. They certainly
want the TBTF Banks to shore up their cash. Yeah!

That's less to short the miners.


BagOfGold Pining 4 the Fjords
May 10, 2013 - 10:45am

Pining...gotta love that GIF of Turd...

in his reminds me of MUDbone's GIF...the Bernank vs Turd!...

Have a great day folks...only if you choose to!!!...

Bag Of Gold

May 10, 2013 - 10:48am

Seems Like -

There is a malaise come over many today. Understand that unless we feel this way at times there is no way to experience the feelings of joy.

Ying/Yang. Ping/Pong.

Nurse, bring me a cup of tea.

May 10, 2013 - 10:52am

getting hammered?

good choice, turd. may i suggest you find a way to do it outdoors. i don't know what it's like where you are, but it's pretty nice today in the florida panhandle. for now. rain on the way for the weekend. gotta get out and carpe that ole diem while i can!

John Galt
May 10, 2013 - 10:57am

@ Monedas re: Our Day is Nigh?

In all honesty, Monedas, I cannot figure out what you're talking about half the time.

But I do agree in the sense that a day of vindication is nigh. Despite many years of manipulations and ongoing beat downs in the PM markets there has always been a sense of optimism around here that things would soon turn around and fundamentals will rule the day in the form of higher PM prices.

IMO that turning point doesn't happen until just about everyone has given up and thrown in the proverbial towel with frustration.

Are we there yet? Not quite, although I suspect that many weaker hands have either been forced out or given up altogether.

But if we use Turd's frustration as a barometer for the mood around here we are getting closer to that day of reckoning.

May 10, 2013 - 11:03am
Lamenting Laverne
May 10, 2013 - 11:04am

The hedges are blowing up

@billwilson and all:

I wrote a long post yesterday, but was too tired after three days and nights of searching to proof-read it even though I was afraid today would mark the beginning of the bond market crash, so I waited until today, and jeez what do I wake up to. Bernanke talking about ending To Big To Fail in a very nervous voice, and a plus 3% drop in Gold.

Anyway, I think I found something important a couple of days ago. I think I found proof of how the bond market is being manipulated to ensure lower interest rate, and I think I found the reason for the big Gold smash on the 12th and 15th April and again today.

I will type it up with details and post it, when I am done. For now I will just tell the short version:

The reason we see a sell off in US 10 year Bonds, while the USD is strengthening, and we see a simultaneous ​sell off in the Japanese 10 year Bonds AND we see a smash in YenGold is because these are all elements in the hedges/constructs that have been used to manipulated the US Bond market to lower yields/higher valuations.

Gold is a part of these hedges and it looks as if they are blowing up as we speak. This is why Gold is being sold - not just because of a stronger USD.

I have found evidence/indicators that the USD/YEN cross has been used for a long long time to RECALIBRATE the USD upwards against Gold, so that the USD would appear stronger to the Bond markets, than it really is. This seemed to be going on before the USD/YEN turned upwards in August 2012.

The unwind of the "Sell USD - Buy Yen" started in August 2012. Abe Shinzo started talking about massive easing only in January 2013 - and it was not confirmed by Kuroda before March 2013. This weakening Yen was already in full motion before that, so that makes me think the Kuroda actions are just an official excuse for what we see. He would get a weaker Yen doing nothing anyway - as these hedges are unwound or start blowing up - if it ran away from them.

It seems disorderly now - certain stocks in Japan were up 14% this morning - and basically I am worried that this is the beginning of the US bond market crash.

And it seems - unfortunately - that there will be no downside limit to Gold until those hedges are gone. Hold on to your hats. I think this is going to be really really ugly - and then hopefully the sun will come up again.

May 10, 2013 - 11:05am

I'm with TF

The sun is shining, the dog is lying on the porch after a nice walk, and something does need to be done with all that grass!

The only wealth I believe in is still lost at sea, and the bastards ruining my life are spending their days sweating it out in unpleasant buildings surrounded by toadies and bought friends. They got it wrong in so many ways.

So ruining my day is not allowed - ruining my retirement has already been taken care of. If sufficient unto the day are the evils thereof, let us run with the zen and find the joys sufficient also. And possibly enhance them.

May 10, 2013 - 11:06am

Bo Polny

I think Bo Polny is a DC working just south of Los Angeles. (the magic of google)

I'm going to try to contact him and discover what I can about the "time clock" (as he calls it). Will report back with what I find, if anything.

Meanwhile, right after I posted my "sell alert" last night here on Main, the site went down, could not log back on, and had to go to bed. Otherwise I'd have sent links to PTC and AM forums where players might have benefited.

What a classic pattern on the 60m chart. Like I said, I've seen this so many times...

Now the question is, does it stop at/near the R1 line? Think of that line as the minimum move it will make. It could be a very important low; something to support a third swing higher on the daily. In other words, the R1 line is an important target for a correction low--a correction to the leg up since April 16.

It's at the 50% retracement which should lend a lot of support, should it culminate Sunday night. Looks very good for a turn there...

The Green Manalishi
May 10, 2013 - 11:07am


Silver does seem to be outperforming and looking stronger than Gold today. My only solace is that the Pound is a bit down today too.

May 10, 2013 - 11:08am

How Come...

...NTR and OPM seem to have some inexhaustible supply of silver? Where are they getting it?

(and, please, saying "it's recycled" doesn't actually identify the source).

May 10, 2013 - 11:08am

Regarding Turkey

You know- the one TF refers to in his post, not the one speaking from the Federal Reserve. A short while ago AM posted a link from the Corbett Report. In it, Corbett spoke to Sibel Edmonds linking all the Caucus States to the CIA, State Department, mobsters, drug running, middle east, Al-Qaeda,etc.

Sibel was a former FBI translator turned whistle blower. There are hours of information going back to the 1990's in this series. I have only gotten through the first two or so.

What I am trying to wrap my head around is, while we have been so active in Turkey for the last twenty or so years why now does Turkey step to the forefront regarding banking regulations, gold purchases, etc. ??

May 10, 2013 - 11:13am

It's the Bonds Stupid!

Keep an eye on the US BOND, now down $1.62 or 1.12%. Just like Turd said.

If the Chinese and Japanese start selling them, then game close to being over.'

What are they going to do with all those devaluing dollars. That's righ;t buy phyzz and as much as they can. They're doing that right now.

This paper game can't go on all that much longer. JMO. It's not price discovery. It's price masquerade.


Southern Cross
May 10, 2013 - 11:15am

One Year In Hell - A Survivors Story - Keep Stacking

(sorry for the long post but to those who are willing to read the article, it might save your life.)

Natural News
May 9, 2013

A report from a man who survived the war in Bosnia. Although the source of this cannot be confirmed, the advice is extremely valuable regardless.

One year in Hell…

I am from Bosnia. You know, between 1992 and 1995, it was hell. For one year, I lived and survived in a city with 6,000 people without water, electricity, gasoline, medical help, civil defense, distribution service, any kind of traditional service or centralized rule.

Our city was blockaded by the army; and for one year, life in the city turned into total crap. We had no army, no police. We only had armed groups; those armed protected their homes and families.

When it all started, some of us were better prepared. But most of the neighbors’ families had enough food only for a few days. Some had pistols; a few had AK-47s or shotguns.

After a month or two, gangs started operating, destroying everything. Hospitals, for example, turned into slaughterhouses. There was no more police. About 80 percent of the hospital staff were gone. I got lucky. My family at the time was fairly large (15 people in a large house, six pistols, three AKs), and we survived (most of us, at least).

The Americans dropped MREs every 10 days to help blockaded cities. This was never enough. Some — very few — had gardens. It took three months for the first rumors to spread of men dying from hunger and cold. We removed all the doors, the window frames from abandoned houses, ripped up the floors and burned the furniture for heat. Many died from diseases, especially from the water (two from my own family). We drank mostly rainwater, ate pigeons and even rats.

Money soon became worthless. We returned to an exchange. For a tin can of tushonka (think Soviet spam), you could have a woman. (It is hard to speak of it, but it is true.) Most of the women who sold themselves were desperate mothers.

Arms, ammunition, candles, lighters, antibiotics, gasoline, batteries and food. We fought for these things like animals. In these situations, it all changes. Men become monsters. It was disgusting.

Strength was in numbers. A man living alone getting killed and robbed would be just a matter of time, even if he was armed.

Today, me and my family are well-prepared, I am well-armed. I have experience.

It does not matter what will happen: an earthquake, a war, a tsunami, aliens, terrorists, economic collapse, uprising. The important part is that something will happen.

Here’s my experience: You can’t make it on your own. Don’t stay apart from your family; prepare together, choose reliable friends.

1. How to move safely in a city

The city was divided into communities along streets. Our street (15 to 20 homes) had patrols (five armed men every week) to watch for gangs and for our enemies.

All the exchanges occurred in the street. About 5 kilometers away was an entire street for trading, all well-organized; but going there was too dangerous because of the snipers. You could also get robbed by bandits. I only went there twice, when I needed something really rare (list of medicine, mainly antibiotics, of the French original of the texts).

Nobody used automobiles in the city: The streets were blocked by wreckage and by abandoned cars. Gasoline was very expensive. If one needed to go somewhere, that was done at night. Never travel alone or in groups that were too big — always two to three men. All armed, travel swift, in the shadows, cross streets through ruins, not along open streets.

There were many gangs 10 to 15 men strong, some as large as 50 men. But there were also many normal men, like you and me, fathers and grandfathers, who killed and robbed. There were no “good” and “bad” men. Most were in the middle and ready for the worst.
2. What about wood? Your home city is surrounded by woods; why did you burn doors and furniture?

There were not that many woods around the city. It was very beautiful — restaurants, cinemas, schools, even an airport. Every tree in the city and in the city park was cut down for fuel in the first two months.

Without electricity for cooking and heat, we burned anything that burned. Furniture, doors, flooring: That wood burns swiftly. We had no suburbs or suburban farms. The enemy was in the suburbs. We were surrounded. Even in the city you never knew who was the enemy at any given point.

3. What knowledge was useful to you in that period?

To imagine the situation a bit better, you should know it was practically a return to the Stone Age.

For example, I had a container of cooking gas. But I did not use it for heat. That would be too expensive! I attached a nozzle to it I made myself and used to fill lighters. Lighters were precious.

If a man brought an empty lighter, I would fill it; and he would give me a tin of food or a candle.

I was a paramedic. In these conditions, my knowledge was my wealth. Be curious and skilled. In these conditions, the ability to fix things is more valuable than gold.

Items and supplies will inevitably run out, but your skills will keep you fed.

I wish to say this: Learn to fix things, shoes or people.

My neighbor, for example, knew how to make kerosene for lamps. He never went hungry.

4. If you had three months to prepare now, what would you do?

Three months? Run away from the country? (joking)

Today, I know everything can collapse really fast. I have a stockpile of food, hygiene items, batteries — enough to last me for six months.

I live in a very secure flat and own a home with a shelter in a village 5 kilometers away. Another six-month supply there, too. That’s a small village; most people there are well-prepared. The war had taught them.

I have four weapons and 2,000 rounds for each.

I have a garden and have learned gardening. Also, I have a good instinct. You know, when everyone around you keeps telling you it’ll all be fine, but I know it will all collapse.

I have strength to do what I need to protect my family. Because when it all collapses, you must be ready to do “bad” things to keep your children alive and protect your family.

Surviving on your own is practically impossible. (That’s what I think.) Even you’re armed and ready, if you’re alone, you’ll die. I have seen that happen many times.

Families and groups, well-prepared, with skills and knowledge in various fields: That’s much better.

5. What should you stockpile?

That depends. If you plan to live by theft, all you need is weapons and ammo. Lots of ammo.

If not, more food, hygiene items, batteries, accumulators, little trading items (knives, lighters, flints, soap). Also, alcohol of a type that keeps well. The cheapest whiskey is a good trading item.

Many people died from insufficient hygiene. You’ll need simple items in great amounts. For example, garbage bags. Lots of them. And toilet papers. Non-reusable dishes and cups: You’ll need lots of them. I know that because we didn’t have any at all.

As for me, a supply of hygiene items is perhaps more important than food. You can shoot a pigeon. You can find a plant to eat. You can’t find or shoot any disinfectant.

Disinfectant, detergents, bleach, soap, gloves, masks.

First aid skills, washing wounds and burns. Perhaps you will find a doctor and will not be able to pay him.

Learn to use antibiotics. It’s good to have a stockpile of them.

You should choose the simplest weapons. I carry a Glock .45. I like it, but it’s a rare gun here. So I have two TT pistols, too. (Everyone has them and ammo is common.)

I don’t like Kalashnikov’s, but again, same story. Everyone has them; so do I.

You must own small, unnoticeable items. For example, a generator is good, but 1,000 BIC lighters are better. A generator will attract attention if there’s any trouble, but 1,000 lighters are compact, cheap and can always be traded.

We usually collected rainwater into four large barrels and then boiled it. There was a small river, but the water in it became very dirty very fast.

It’s also important to have containers for water: barrels and buckets.

6. Were gold and silver useful?

Yes. I personally traded all the gold in the house for ammunition.

Sometimes, we got our hands on money: dollars and Deutschmarks. We bought some things for them, but this was rare and prices were astronomical. For example, a can of beans cost $30 to $40. The local money quickly became worthless. Everything we needed we traded for through barter.

7. Was salt expensive?

Yes, but coffee and cigarettes were even more expensive. I had lots of alcohol and traded it without problems. Alcohol consumption grew over 10 times as compared to peacetime. Perhaps today, it’s more useful to keep a stock of cigarettes, lighters and batteries. They take up less space.

At this time, I was not a survivalist. We had no time to prepare — several days before the shit hit the fan. The politicians kept repeating over the TV that everything was going according to plan, there’s no reason to be concerned. When the sky fell on our heads, we took what we could.

8. Was it difficult to purchase firearms? What did you trade for arms and ammunition?

After the war, we had guns in every house. The police confiscated lots of guns at the beginning of the war. But most of them we hid. Now I have one legal gun that I have a license for. Under the law, that’s called a temporary collection. If there is unrest, the government will seize all the registered guns. Never forget that.

You know, there are many people who have one legal gun, but also illegal guns if that one gets seized. If you have good trade goods, you might be able to get a gun in a tough situation. But remember, the most difficult time is the first days, and perhaps you won’t have enough time to find a weapon to protect your family. To be disarmed in a time of chaos and panic is a bad idea.

In my case, there was a man who needed a car battery for his radio. He had shotguns. I traded the accumulator for both of them. Sometimes, I traded ammunition for food, and a few weeks later traded food for ammunition. Never did the trade at home, never in great amounts.

Few people knew how much and what I keep at home.

The most important thing is to keep as many things as possible in terms of space and money. Eventually, you’ll understand what is more valuable.

Correction: I’ll always value weapons and ammunition the most. Second? Maybe gas masks and filters.

9. What about security?

Our defenses were very primitive. Again, we weren’t ready, and we used what we could. The windows were shattered, and the roofs in a horrible state after the bombings. The windows were blocked — some with sandbags, others with rocks.

I blocked the fence gate with wreckage and garbage, and used a ladder to get across the wall. When I came home, I asked someone inside to pass over the ladder. We had a fellow on our street that completely barricaded himself in his house. He broke a hole in the wall, creating a passage for himself into the ruins of the neighbor’s house — a sort of secret entrance.

Maybe this would seem strange, but the most protected houses were looted and destroyed first. In my area of the city, there were beautiful houses with walls, dogs, alarms and barred windows. People attacked them first. Some held out; others didn’t. It all depended how many hands and guns they had inside.

I think defense is very important, but it must be carried out unobtrusively. If you are in a city and SHTF comes, you need a simple, non-flashy place, with lots of guns and ammo.

How much ammo? As much as possible.

Make your house as unattractive as you can.

Right now, I own a steel door, but that’s just against the first wave of chaos. After that passes, I will leave the city to rejoin a larger group of people, my friends and family.

There were some situations during the war. There’s no need for details, but we always had superior firepower and a brick wall on our side.

We also constantly kept someone watching the streets. Quality organization is paramount in case of gang attacks.

Shooting was constantly heard in the city.

Our perimeter was defended primitively. All the exits were barricaded and had little firing slits. Inside we had at least five family members ready for battle at any time and one man in the street, hidden in a shelter.

We stayed home through the day to avoid sniper fire.

At first, the weak perish. Then, the rest fight.

During the day, the streets were practically empty due to sniper fire. Defenses were oriented toward short-range combat alone. Many died if they went out to gather information, for example. It’s important to remember we had no information, no radio, no TV — only rumors and nothing else.

There was no organized army; every man fought. We had no choice. Everybody was armed, ready to defend themselves.

You should not wear quality items in the city; someone will murder you and take them. Don’t even carry a “pretty” long arm, it will attract attention.

Let me tell you something: If SHTF starts tomorrow, I’ll be humble. I’ll look like everyone else. Desperate, fearful. Maybe I’ll even shout and cry a little bit.

Pretty clothing is excluded altogether. I will not go out in my new tactical outfit to shout: “I have come! You’re doomed, bad guys!” No, I’ll stay aside, well-armed, well-prepared, waiting and evaluating my possibilities, with my best friend or brother.

Super-defenses, super-guns are meaningless. If people think they should steal your things, that you’re profitable, they will. It’s only a question of time and the amount of guns and hands.

10. How was the situation with toilets?

We used shovels and a patch of earth near the house. Does it seem dirty? It was. We washed with rainwater or in the river, but most of the time the latter was too dangerous. We had no toilet paper; and if we had any, I would have traded it away.

It was a “dirty” business.

Let me give you a piece of advice: You need guns and ammo first — and second, everything else. Literally everything! All depends on the space and money you have.

If you forget something, there will always be someone to trade with for it. But if you forget weapons and ammo, there will be no access to trading for you.

I don’t think big families are extra mouths. Big families means both more guns and strength — and from there, everyone prepares on his own.

11. How did people treat the sick and the injured?

Most injuries were from gunfire. Without a specialist and without equipment, if an injured man found a doctor somewhere, he had about a 30 percent chance of survival.

It ain’t the movie. People died. Many died from infections of superficial wounds. I had antibiotics for three to four uses — for the family, of course.

People died foolishly quite often. Simple diarrhea will kill you in a few days without medicine, with limited amounts of water.

There were many skin diseases and food poisonings… nothing to it.

Many used local plants and pure alcohol — enough for the short-term, but useless in the long term.

Hygiene is very important, as well as having as much medicine as possible — especially antibiotics

May 10, 2013 - 11:19am

Cartman says it all

Cartman and the iPad ( f**ck me ) sub ita
Dyna mo hum
May 10, 2013 - 11:19am

BOG and the chicken

That my friend is your best ever!

Loud Noises
May 10, 2013 - 11:23am


That interview comes from The man goes by the name Selco and posts regular updates about different aspects of his experience. It is eye opening, but I think someone who is truly ready for the future should get through the shock of his stories now.... to be ready if anything similar comes our way in the future.

Dyna mo hum
May 10, 2013 - 11:26am


Even if it is a rebroadcast.

Southern Cross
May 10, 2013 - 11:27am


Thanks. I did not know who the writer was but from the details seemed to be authentic. Real eye opener. I guess I need to buy some more ammo and train the shooters better. Best to everyone and you Loud.

May 10, 2013 - 11:30am


can't say anything about metals that hasn't been said today.

If you're in Wisconsin, try to find this stuff. The gin is phenomenal, and I've had some pretty good gin in my day (Blackwoods is my favorite that I used to buy in Tokyo, can't get it in TX).

From Door County Distillery.

May 10, 2013 - 11:36am

Means nothing ... but

As soon as the yen crossed 100 I figured we would get a big move .. unfortunately it went the wrong way, and somehow the broader market survived too.

The last few days the miners have been building a bit of support, and until the gold fade yesterday looked quite good. Today we see the miners down but less than would be expected given the carnage in gold (silver so far is outperforming). Even today miner volumes are muted as if the selling that normally happens has disappeared (for now at least).

Normally (the last 6 months) we would have seen miners taken to new lows on this move, as we have seen 5 times this year so far. We will have to see where we finish ... but not a disaster yet.

Europe seems to be leading the selling (who know why). Last night in Asia PMs were trading nicely .. until London opened, then down we went quite quickly. Now we have Europe closing and low and behold miners and gold seem to be recovering some.

May 10, 2013 - 11:38am

Looking for BoPolny?...

Even though I'm not a TA fan...I do respect differing opinions...after all...that's what makes this wonderful world go around...& different thoughts...garner different solutions!...Anyways...BoPolny is here!!!...

Bag Of Gold

May 10, 2013 - 11:38am

SouthernCross, Thanks...

...for posting that article on what I'd call "urban survival".

Postulating and book-smarts are fun, but there's no substitute for first-hand experience, and I always appreciate first-hand-written accounts.


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs

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