So, What's Next?

409
175
Mon, Aug 22, 2011 - 8:22pm

Sorry that I've been MIA most of the day. I've been spending a lot of time in thought, trying to decipher where we are going from here. This evening gold has charged through $1900 and silver has spent some time above $44. I feel I've got a decent handle on where we're headed, so, let's get started.

Let's begin with gold. It's moving almost straight UP and that is the type of momentum that is certain to garner the attention of our friends at the C/C/C. Many thought they were going to raise margins Friday. The specter of a margin hike kept gold in check all day near 1850. When Friday evening came and went without a hike, gold rallied today to make up for lost time. Since this afternoon has also failed to provide any emails from the C/C/C, gold is rolling again at present. However, don't be fooled. A margin hike is coming and the C/C/C will, undoubtedly, attempt to time it in order to get the biggest "bang" for their manipulative "buck". What better time than later this week?

Recall for a moment the pain and suffering from the late April and early May silver fiasco. The Forces of Darkness stood down and let silver run to a speculative "all-in" peak of almost $50...the psychologically significant, I might add, $50 level. Once everyone was sufficiently sucked in, the C/C/C dropped the hammer with 5 margin hikes in 9 days. As we all know, silver fell over 30% in the coming weeks.

Fast forward to present day gold. The C/C/C has already lobbed in one margin hike, just like they did in silver on Monday, April 25. They now appear to be letting gold run in order to, once again, suck in a lot of weak-handed, latecomers. And, just like silver in April, we are approaching an uber-significant psychological level...$2000. So, here's what I think happens next:

1) Gold, which is currently trading at $1912 as I type, is going to be allowed to run a little bit farther. It may slow a bit at Santa's next angel of $1936 but I think it may make it almost all the way to $2000. Maybe as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.

2) Then, the criminal C/C/C drops the hammer with a significant margin hike.

3) Gold sells off after the margin hike but hangs in there with a few speculators hoping and praying that The Fed will rescue them by announcing some new, dramatic quantitative easing program over the weekend.

4) The Fed "disappoints". No new overt QE. Instead, something like what is described in the link below will begin taking place behind the scenes. Still horribly inflationary but obscure enough to confuse the easily confusable.

https://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.17%20Bank%20Credit%20Repo.htm

5) Gold sinks like a stone next week, conveniently taking silver with it for a while.

You know that I like empirical data and patterns to buttress my opinions. These two charts do the trick:

So, the next question is, what happens to silver? In the very short term, silver looks great. In fact, now that we've eclipsed 44, I think it could soon trade as high as 46. However, keep in mind that September options expire on Thursday. The EE will likely be forced to retreat from their positions around 44 but they will certainly regroup at a higher level. Look for some resistance near 45. IF silver can get through there, it should have a very hard time dealing with 46. So, I expect a peak there, either at 45 or 46, before the EE caps things once and for all ahead of option expiry. IF I'm right about the coming gold beatdown, silver will be taken along for the ride next week. I would not be surprised to see it pull all the way back to 42 before basing and beginning its final assault on the highs from April near $50. Keep in mind that, by attacking gold, the C/C/C is unwittingly shifting the leverage picture back in favor of silver. Maybe not fully in favor of silver but at least they'd be leveling the playing field. In Q4, this will have the effect of driving more speculative longs back into silver and consequently give silver the juice to finally eclipse $50.

So, there you have it. Jeezo pete, I must be some kind of masochist. I finally put $44 silver to bed and I jump right back into the fire by trying to predict the future again. Oh well. My buddy "Turdle" told me when I started this nonsense back in November that my real value was always going to be in "calling it like I see it" and not "pulling punches". Well, there you go. No punches pulled on that one. Now, keep in mind two things:

1) I could be wrong.

2) If you're ready to get out and sell your trading positions now, then do it. Don't wait around for the final uptick. Remember, "pigs get slaughtered".

That's all for now. Stay nimble and enjoy the fireworks. Thanks for being a part of this growing "community". TF

8:40 am EDT UPDATE:

As I rubbed the sleep from my eyes an hour ago, my first thoughts were of despair. After some coffee and some consciousness, I feel better. Gold is only down about $10 from where it was when I went to bed and silver is only off 30c. Big deal. In fact, the only thing we've seen is a continuation of the pattern we identified yesterday at this time. Gold sells off at 3:00 am EDT and begins to rally back at around 9:00 or 10:00 am. Here's a reprint of the chart from yesterday morning:

And now, here's an updated hourly and a 3-minute chart that shows the raid commencing at exactly 3:00. (Like Mussolini, the Wicked Witch may be ruthless but at least she makes the trains run on time!)

Predictably, silver was dragged along for the ride. However, it has once again held what is now support near 42.50. It has since rebounded back above $43.

Hang in there today but have fun. More after the close. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  409 Comments

Starving Artist
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:38pm

> Reuters story on how to get

> Reuters story on how to get Chavez his gold. Best quote: "the market in physical gold is tiny, and largely comprised of nutcases."

two post later: > The link below is about Tesla principals and conspiracy theory involving intentional earthquake generation. facepalm.
mouser
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:41pm

Most of the damage on silver in trading on the globex

I see it took only a matter of minutes for the EE to take down silver under 42$ , significant downside level, while GOLD got hammered as well. I really thought we would see some profitakers on gold move some of that capital into silver. And that may still happen. I somehow missed the good economic news that sent the DOW up over 300 points. Maybe the east coast earthquake enuff to upset the trading bots on Wall street and they reset and started buying instead of selling.

Maybe some thinking the stocks are simply oversold on the DOW , except for the super profitable precious metals miners of course , who for the most part are getting dumped. Funny how some analysts are actually suggesting we are in a bear market for silver, somehow i missed that too. Silver still up over 130% IN THE LAST 52 WEEKS, wtf would they call a bull market?

Since the takedown in MAY , thanx to the ultra-manipulative margin hike attack on silver , the price of silver has risen nearly 10$ from the low around 32... even going back that far, i still dont see the bear market, and that during the summer months which are typically weak for precious metals.

Sometimes i wonder why i bother to read some of these idjits like Nadler and Ned Schmidt, but i guess some must actually read them and believe the bs, despite their atrocious records. I suppose if you continually call gold and silver a bubble and are always predicting a pullback you will be right a few times a month, but wrong for the last 5 years.

well there is my rant for the day. LOL

silver foil hat
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:42pm

@starving artist..

I'd say the real nutcases are those who think that printing more fiat ad infinitum is a panacea to solve all the world's debts.

IMO, of course.

Dave T Shill
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:43pm

Clown over at Market Watch

Shill,

Just be glad there are clowns like that out there still. When everyone is praising gold, that will be the time to get out.

Shill
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:45pm

Not sure

Not to sure about anyone else but I like the HUI above 580 here anyone?

rotbrador Titus Andronicus
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:47pm

Correction

we are in the middle of one right now.

speconomist
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:52pm
Tom L
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:52pm

@Shill

I do like the HUI at this level. I'm just annoyed with myself that I didn't get more off the table this morning. A number of stocks look good after the beatdown. So, I'm happy I hit a double today. Took $4k in positions off the table, put $2k back on in longer-dated ones.

I expected today to happen tomorrow, TBH and didn't get everything I wanted, but I did make some good moves. Just not enough.

Ta,

Mikeyk23
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:52pm

Silver correction

so is the 41.50 going to hold or are we dropping lower in the coming days??

Tesla
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:53pm

@StarvingArtist

You should look at Tesla's Patent and read a little about basic BASIC physics before assuming that it is a nut case concept. HAARP is high power microwave antenna array pointed at the ionosphere specifically for the purpose of manipulating its shape and temperature in order to control weather. It really does work. I lived near this location in Alaska for 6 years and used to think it was BS as well until I met someone who had worked at/on the power generation plant. It's real.

https://www.superforce.com/haarp/index.htm

murphy
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:54pm

@ Turd

Come on, don't tell us you for saw the earthquake and named todays post So what's next? answer: earthquake.

edit: btw will 41.50 hold?

zilverreiger
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:56pm

terri5125 ginger

its only a daytrade if you go in and out and in of the same stock within the day, if you have 25000 USD the limit is lifted, its not an IB problem its an exchange limit

chiperg
Aug 23, 2011 - 3:59pm

Greenspan

Article just posted on Bloomberg. ""Greenspan also said that he did not think gold, which reached a record above $1,900 an ounce this week, was in a bubble. “Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency,” he said. “And the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.”" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/greenspan-says-the-euro-is-bre... How did he not "get it" when he actually had power?

Tesla
Aug 23, 2011 - 4:08pm
RuNuts
Aug 23, 2011 - 4:08pm
Blight Master
Aug 23, 2011 - 4:15pm

Of course a raid came, my

Of course a raid came, my list bit of silver from back in April finally came out from underwater.

Chicken Little
Aug 23, 2011 - 7:58pm

@Orange

Physics/Astronomy guy here. I don't know where you got that lame video about comet Elenin, but I would suggest you start a forum topic titled "Stupid Things" and post it there. You obviously have not knowledge of basic science principles or you wouldn't be wasting space on Turd's blog with such useless BS. Maybe we should all start discussing vampires and the bogey man.

"The sky is not falling"

Chicken Little

nathan1234
Aug 23, 2011 - 8:41pm

IMHO reducing the price of

IMHO reducing the price of gold and silver will not bring out the physical.

If the bankers need the physical stuff to settle their commitments then the prices shoould move up.

But of course we hear about all the derivatives- of which the details we do not know.

Actually no financial trading instrument should be allowed unless the details and their implications and value is made public

nathan1234
Aug 23, 2011 - 9:30pm

From what i can see, I think

From what i can see, I think Buffet , Soros and their EE is actually buying up Gold and Silver as cheap as possible before the SHTF.

That's why you find them telling us that these are not good for investment or by saying that he have sold their Gold.

Which fool would go about saying these things unless they want to really buy, especially on a large scale!

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