From Here, Where?

Sat, Apr 13, 2013 - 3:59pm

I've been thinking since yesterday about what I should write today. My first idea was to overwhelm you with information. Charts, data, links...the usual stuff, only more so. Then it dawned on me...that's probably not what you want to hear right now.

Besides there are all kinds of other websites out there where you can get that stuff. And today, I'm not too concerned about technicals. You see, my obligation is to you and to the other 28,939 unique IPs that hit this site yesterday. What do you need to hear? Or, put this way, if I was in your shoes, what would I want to hear from Turd this weekend?

Therefore I've decided, at least for today, to dispense with the charts and the links. I'm not going to mention the info that Andy shared on KWN or the fact that the GLD incredibly shed another 22.86 metric tonnes of "inventory" yesterday. (That's another 1,840 bars or 10 of my pallets, by the way.) Nope, none of that. If I were you, I'd want to be reassured that this wasn't all just a big crock of shit. All this gold stuff. All of the new reserve currency stuff. All of the Cartel manipulation stuff. All of it. I'd want to know that I hadn't been snookered and taken advantage of. I'd want to know that all of these "internet people" that I follow aren't simply making stuff up as they go along. And I'd want to know that they're sincere and that they're just as frustrated as I am.

So, I guess I'll start with myself. I think everyone knows this but I'll state it again: I'm just a nobody. I live in the American Midwest and my entire life has been spent doing pretty-much normal stuff. About five years ago, I quit the "corporate ladder" and pursued a path of independence. In 2009, I discovered ZeroHedge and the rest, as they say, is history. I now find myself in the middle of a global struggle against elements of the established central and bullion banking order. Suffice it to say: It's a surreal existence and not one that I could ever have envisioned. But I'm here now and waist-deep in the fight. Does this make me infallible or all-knowledgeable? Of course not. But I do my best to share with you, my dear reader, as much information and insight as I can.

The past eight months have been the most challenging. Not only have I lost all remaining faith in the idea that Americans live in a self-governing, representative republic, I've also been privileged(?) to witness first-hand some of the true depth of the corruption. Concurrently, I allowed myself to be totally caught off-guard by the ferocity of the attack on the precious metals after the announcement of QE∞. At this critical time, I should have anticipated that all necessary measures would be taken to discourage the ownership of any form of money other than fiat currency. In failing to recognize this contingency, I failed you, my dear reader. Though I am 100% confident in the accuracy of my predictions of "the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment", I failed to recognize that this current beatdown was both predictable and inevitable. I hope we've both learned something and that we both are able to keep from making the same mistake in the future.

But mistakes will still be made and the point of this post is to assure you that I am on your side and doing everything in my power to help you prepare for what is inevitably coming. I do so with all sincerity of purpose and the cloak of this responsibility wears heavily upon my soldiers every day. Just ask MrsF or the LTs. They'll tell you how they often catch me staring blankly off into the distance, seemingly detached from the moment. "What are you thinking about", they'll ask. "Oh, dear, where do I begin...". But that's OK; I'm not looking for sympathy. I just want you to know that I, and most everyone else I've had the privilege to meet within the metals "community", truly believe in the cause and we are doing our best to help as many as possible.

I've often said that the greatest thing about "being Turd" is the access this grants me and the friendships and contacts that I've been able to make, so, please indulge me this. As stated above, this post is not about me. It's about what I assume must be on your mind this weekend. Namely, is this real and are the people with these websites trustworthy? For what it's worth, here's some of what I know (with apologies to anyone I mistakenly leave out):

  • Jim Sinclair (Santa): JSMineset was the first metals website I ever visited. That I've actually gotten to know Jim a little bit is a great honor. I've known a couple of NYSE-listed CEOs is in my life and Jim is no different. He smart and wise. Measured in his words but with a vision. Under no circumstances does he need to publish JSM but he does. Why? Because he cares. Period. He firmly believes that he can clearly see what is coming and he's trying to use his platform to warn as many as possible. You can trust and believe in him because I do.
  • Andrew Maguire: Not sure where to start and I'll try to keep this brief. Andy is a true gentleman and staunch ally of all of us. Sort of like Jim Sinclair, he doesn't need any of this but he's sick of the injustice and the inequity created by the bullion banks...and he's fighting back. Even though we've never met, I've come to trust him implicitly.
  • Ned Naylor-Leyland: I don't think you could find a nicer guy on the face of the planet. Again, just like so many of us, Ned's sort of had this stuff thrust upon him. But he's an eloquent spokesman for our cause and I've come to value him as a friend.
  • Jim Willie: You may think that Jim has some crazy theories. I know I do. But please do not doubt his intellect, his intuition or his sincerity. The guy is a true visionary and I have no doubt that, one day soon, he will be vindicated and treated as such.
  • Bill Murphy and Chris Powell: The veteran soldiers of the movement. Though Bill might seem a bit of a loose cannon from time to time, he's a good man and tireless campaigner against The Cartels. Chris is a solid, upright and honest man whose commitment and integrity benefits all of us.
  • Ted Butler, Ranting Andy, Mike Krieger, Jim Quinn, Kerry Lutz, Dave Janda, David Morgan, Alasdair Macleod, Jeff Nielson, Detlev Schilchter, John Williams: All of these guys either write newsletters or offer paid subscription analysis and I have either met them in person or made their acquaintance via Skype. All of them provide a valuable resource and all of them are doing everything they can to help the cause. I feel I can personally vouch for them and I strongly recommend that you trust them, too.
  • There are many others but, for the sake of your time, I'll stop here.

I could go on but I don't want to turn this into some kind of LoveFest. The point of this is what I stated above. Though you should always question the things you read, do your own research and due diligence, I wanted to pass along what I know to reassure you about the gold community and those involved within it. I hope I've done just that.

Please utilize the rest of this weekend to get some much-needed rest and relaxation. To me, it's quite clear that we have entered the final chapter of bullion bank hegemony and the days ahead are only going to get more volatile. You're going to need information and wisdom to see your way through it so I hope that this post has been a valuable use of your time.

See you Monday.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 13, 2013 - 4:00pm

First ?

First ?

QE to infinity
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:04pm



Apr 13, 2013 - 4:04pm
القراع عصفور
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:08pm

LCS report

no one in my area is selling ASE's or junk below 29 or so. one dealer told me that he can sell "upstream" for more than spot! what i assume he meant by that is the refiners are even buying over spot. i find the same on-line. just my observations. i do not know what to believe anymore.

i was 2nd when i began writing this.

good luck and God bless to all.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:12pm

Top 10ish

Long and strong with a hangover.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:13pm

Behold the TURDle

He makes progress by sticking his neck out.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:18pm

Why do you do it?

A guy in an old Wagon Train episode gave this "speech" reminded me of us...

"Listen boy... it ain't findin' the gold that's important, it's the lookin'.

Most folks go through life knowin' exactly what's in store for 'em.

No ups, no downs, just driftin' along.

For me, every time I pan a stream it's, it's the not knowin', whether I'm gonna come up with just plain mud or some of that yellow stuff.

That's livin'."

p.s. Hey! Lucky 7!!!

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:20pm

Well said

I don't have doubts about any of the people you mentioned. I don't have doubts about my decision to buy physical bullion. I know what's coming. I just thought it would have been here by now. I agree that it's only going to get harder from here.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:23pm

sometimes you just have to step back

and smell some roses!

I kind of think of us here as a team,

Santa is the owner of the club

and Turd is our manager!

Go Team!

Lamenting Laverne
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:25pm

This is what making a cash only market for gold looks like to me

I had been offline all day and came home from a great dinner with great wine - a wee bit tipsy - to log on and see carnage all over the screen.

The great wealth transfer has started for real.

@ The Green Manalishi about GoldTrends - I agree, and it suddenly also makes sense of the news story that JPM aquired a new big vault in NY many months ago.

A couple of days ago, it was reported that JPM was removing *registered* inventory from the Comex - much more than other Comex participants. That could be real physical deliveries, but it could also be the same as when we take cash out of the banking system - namely that JPM is no longer in delivery mode but in preserving mode. If the Comex breaks, they are not going to have "money in that Comex-bank".

The orchestrated decline yesterday has resulted in what is described as an illiquid non-stop market. To me, this means that market makers are not stepping up to take the buy side of the long liquidation.

On Monday, when the paper market is likely to keep plummeting due to margin calls over the weekend - worsened if the physical market remains closed or access disturbed - the short hedgies and JPM will be zipping coffee, while watching Gold paper longs being decimated (wealth transfer). They will cover their shorts all the way to the bottom of the point, where the panic selling exhausts itself.

If they are happy with the level, they will start buying to create the bottom. If they are not happy, i.e. too many strong longs are not selling, and hence posing a continued threat to the fact that they have no more physical to deliver, my guess is that they will hike margins - "due to excessive volatility" - to keep the flush going a bit longer - possibly all the way up to 100%.

By the time the paper market turns around JPM will be long or neutral. My guess is that they will be long - having taken the other side of the phys hedging initiated due to the closure of the systems in London, because those guys actually have physical to deliver. Then JPM will stand for delivery, and take the loot into their own non-comex vault, to be used in the new monetary paradigm.

The few remaining stubborn gold longs, that could not be flushed, stand for delivery from now on, and when the remaining Comex inventories have been emptied. The Comex will default and pay in cash - or alternatively there will have been unlocked so much physical that the stubborn longs can be served, and the Comex will live on as a cash gold exchange.

I think that Jim Sinclair is right about this bit, but I just don't see how he could envision that outcome without a washout like this aka the final destruction of the paper gold market. Come to think of it - he did say he expected a washout - but he also said that he though the low was in by his birthday. Maybe he got some bad intel.

Where this is ending dollar price wise is anybody's guess - much lower I suspect - but I feel very encouraged. This is proof that the wheels are coming off and that they have very little physical to deliver, so they needed to break the market to get out of their obligations to avoid outright default.

In any case, I find it hard to believe that this is just another rinse and repeat to start another paper cycle, because of the unprecedented outflows from GLD. It seems, they are now dismantling their cash cow and prime retail control mechanism, which tells me that soon they won't need it anymore.

I think that we may have the "Gold Price Going Dark" for a period coming up quite soon. One could argue that the coindealer website outages and the London system unavailability means that this has already started. In any case it seems we will all soon see if all our hours of research and analysis will prove us right, or if we will be revealed as the biggest suckers of the century.

As I said - I am very encouraged by yesterday's action - even if it stings to look at. PS: Guess what I munched on for dinner..... Fried Squid ;-)
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:25pm

hats off to the community

Hey, they can make us doubt our senses with the price action but all we have to do is look to each other and know that we are not alone. Many brillant people are in the camp of sanity and balance. The camp that recognizes that economic laws matter. That 2+2=4. No matter what mmt, msm, krugmans, and the normans of the world say, with their devious tricks, gambits, and rationalizations. Because we have morals. We live with consequences. As the sheeple continue to slave and the disconect widens, the truth will eventually wrestle its ugly head. No matter how modern the theory is, the world still hangs on certain inaleinable truths; there is no free lunch. Mmt/keynesians/deficits dont matter = belief in fairy tales, unicorns, and free lunches

Texas Sandman
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:29pm

Patience is a virtue

Central banks are running out of trees to print the money to bail out the quadrillion dollar derivatives hole.

And the hole is growing, not shrinking. That's why I bought PMs.

It's about as likely you'll find intelligent life in government as it is the fed will ever stop QE.

That's all you need to know.

I was buying phyzz yesterday, not selling. I'm buying in a small way even this morning.

kjm BillyBoy
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:39pm

Unusual forum

This is the only forum type website I've ever seen that allows that !st , 2nd, 3rd post nonsense. Now I see top ten is included. Hard to take serious.

القراع عصفور
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:41pm


i'd love it if you dedicated a thread to the CFTC. i think we should especially go after Bart Chilton. his policy of open communication with the public is his Achilles heel. here is the mission statement of the CFTC, " The CFTC's mission is to protect market users and the public from fraud, manipulation, abusive practices and systemic risk related to derivatives that are subject to the Commodity Exchange Act, and to foster open, competitive, and financially sound markets." just on this basis alone, and the e-mail from Chilton posted yesterday, he is proved a liar. multiply this by perhaps hundreds of communications TFMR bloggers may be able to find and post.

i also think you should try to engage Dylan Rattigan. he has a more mainstream audience, and would be a great person to interview. yes, i am probably being unrealistic, i know.

no one having even the weakest, yet positive view on humanity could have predicted what has happened since QE-∞. the brazen actions lately reek of desperation, and you will be vindicated.

thank you for your continuing efforts. the good guys win in the end.

i am somewhat shell shocked, so this may seem even more incoherent than my usual ramblings. GLTA

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:42pm

Thanks Turd

Glad you did not take the whole weekend off. I think a lot of the community needed to hear this.

Basil kjm
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:43pm

I agree kjm

This "first" , "second" , "top ten" nonsense is nothing more than school playground immaturity. I'll bet a couple of ounces that it really irritates Turd too.

It's grow up time kids.

Apr 13, 2013 - 4:50pm

thank you so much Turd

for all of us who need an hour long of hand-holding, here's Peak Prosperity with an entire hour of Mike Maloney.

I have never been so bummed about not having any silver money left for this month. Buying silver in its final minted form for under the all-in price that miners have to pay is the weirdest side-effect of this price manipulation ever! It's as if you owned a major silver mine, giving you .999 pure bullion, but without all the work, risk, hassle and waiting times...

Mike Maloney: Today's Low Gold & Silver Prices Are Not Realistic
tmosley kjm
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:54pm

kjm, if you judge a forum by

kjm, if you judge a forum by such measures, then I question your judgement in regards to visiting a financial website run by a fellow named "Turd".

Perhaps you should let the quality of the content speak for itself, even if some of it is garbage?

Nick Elway
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:56pm

Thanks Turd for avoiding the guru trap

Sweet post.

I live in a section of the country with a number of self-declared "enlightened" or "awakened" people. If they are eloquent enough they attract like-minded followers who declare the wonderfulness of the "enlightened master" or "guru". The guru begins to believe all the hype about him or her self and starts making pronouncements instead of admitting any errors or continuing to learn. People that doubt the guru are driven out of the community. If the guru is a guy, things often get dicey when the hot chick follower get pregnant.

I admire the turd's ability to not "drink his own bathwater", easily admitting when he makes a mistake, and sharing his search for knowledge and learning experiences. Perhaps the "Turd" name is a help in warding of excessive self-importance. (That and MrsF and the LTs reminders.)

Turd's made TFMR a wonderfully interesting, diverse, and educational place and banned way fewer posters than I would have banned had our roles been reversed.

I've canceled my cable and dish. I subscribe to the TFMR channel, that's where I come for information, news, entertainment, and community.

Any teacher who declares his or her enlightenment, using it to attract a following, is greatly harmful to spiritual progress.
Frankenstein Government
Apr 13, 2013 - 4:58pm

I Undersestimated How Desperate This Is Getting

I had always thought, that QE aside, we still must have a great deflation period followed by inflation.

The FED has literally skewed short term history. It has taken the efforts of 7 trillion just to keep deflation away. I am beginning to think the reset may have begun- deflation in earnest, may have started this past week.

I can't see gold lower than 1200 or silver lower than 23. My instincts tell me at those levels- the miners might as well stop operations.

Oddly, I am undeterred. I am going to watch this fall and try to nail down some more. I wrote a little about the end game Friday amidst the carnage. I really think the shit is about to hit the a deflationary way.

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:01pm

Thanks TF....

Please know that I pray for you and your family, and thank God that you have the courage to be willing to be used as a communicator and community creator. These times do and will continue to reveal men's (and women's) characters and principles, of worth far more than gold and silver! I am reassured by your words and thank you. I believe you, that while none of us are perfect, these men are of good intent and I appreciate every one who sticks their neck out to best help others have accurate information. It can't be easy.

We continue to build our community garden, and my lettuce, broccoli, cucumbers, carrots, potatoes, and onions are all coming along nicely. We hope to donate several hundred pounds of produce to our local Salvation Army this spring.

Thanks to all those who bring information and encouragement! Hope everyone has a relaxing weekend. We are grateful to have some nice sunshine and comfortable temperatures in my part of the woods!

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:04pm

On being human

Nice post and straight from your gut.

It reads like that came flowing out of you non-stop. Those are the best posts and when you're all done typing the feeling of satisfaction from an honest assessment is draining and fulfilling at the same time.

That's when you know you were true to others and yourself.

Fwiw, I gave up hoping or wondering if there was one shred of honesty or integrity in politics or the markets. There are still some things that raise my eyebrow's at times but it isn't out of shock any longer. It's out of frustration, aggravation and a little bit of sadness.

As most know, I think both parties suck. I've been a political agnostic for a long time without actually realizing it as such.

What I see now and have loosely realized for quite awhile that I now fully accept (not capitulated to) is that were smack in the middle of a narcissistic political and capitalistic free for all that has been unshackled by the lack of rule of law for those two ruling classes.

Those of us here and elsewhere are on our own and should expect no help via the rule of law that at one time seemed to be the foundation of our country and constitution. I'm starting to wonder if that was ever really the case except for the late 1700's - early 1800's.

The bottomline to me is something I've said for quite awhile and that's....we haven't seen anything yet and that we should expect the unexpected....even the shocking and unthinkable.

Sadly, we're on our own and watching a schizoid America morphing into what I call the new Ameri-skizm (along with other central govts/banks) who control everything they can get away with due to a breakdown in the rule of law.

Simply put, we're watching humankind and modern society go through a period of deevolution. I can only comment on my US point of view from my vantage point.

There's a reason why we're here. My reason is everything I've outlined above. Any help or insight we can give to each other or those who look in is why I'm here.

I don't see any of that as doom and gloom although I'm sure some might see it as such. If some want to still believe the safe cocoonish thoughts that 'their' party just needs more time and it's the other parties fault then by all means keep embracing that.

My views are my own and with no forethought came flowing out in a matter of fact way with no vinegar. That's how I've seen it.

The only way I see real change taking place is by TPTB imploding under their own blind eyed weight. Just like any other egotistical brat or punk in life with no restrictions or laws reigning them in they'll eventually succumb to their own self destructive behavior that they don't or can't see as such.

Unfortunately, just like in our own personal lives, we've witnessed these types self destruct but not before they affected or took others along for the bumpy ride. That's where we are.

Hang on tight and expect the unexpected because we haven't seen anything yet. The giant will eventually stumble and unfortunately some little people will get crushed....but only if you have a blind eye and don't expect it or see it coming.

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:06pm

turd... what i want and need to hear?

cmon..... just give me the truth! although ...some inhere caint handle the truth...............

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:13pm


Your post did not show the link for me. It may also be time to pull the credit card out. If AG goes down some more Sunday Night and Monday, I am going to pull out the credit card for another couple of monster boxes, that will be first for me using credit. I wish more would do the same.

Also much better than playing the paper game.

Lamenting Laverne
Apr 13, 2013 - 5:16pm

Deflation - my thoughts

Great post TF. Thank you!

I have always wondered why there was so much infighting about Gold and Deflation. I have no special insights, but the way I think about it is this:

When the original problem is debt saturation and asset deterioration because of a real economy that does not work, I cannot see why deflation is perceived as a threat to Gold.

When the consequence of lost control is bank blow-ups, where people lose their cash, and risk or reality of Sovereign defaults, resulting in all sorts of onerous confiscation and taxation in addition to the fact that it is also the issuer of cash that is in risk of default, then Gold as a tangible wealth asset will still be a safehaven.

It does not matter if that safehaven is valued in dollar terms at 1200 or 800, when the likely consequence of the same collapse that brought about this price decline, means that stocks will be at 50 dollars and bonds will be at 0 dollars.

To me it is all about relative performance - not absolute price - that determines what is best suited for preservation of purchasing power.

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:16pm

Good message TF

And great timing. Thanks again for what you do, how you do it, and the people you do it with.

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:19pm

QE and other new factors...

These current market conditions have never existed before... How can anyone analyze and predict market directions with any accuracy when you have to consider all of the QE, the derivatives time bomb ticking, market manipulation, etc, etc, etc. I simply refuse to believe that anyone can predict what will go on with these markets, there are just too many new variables whose actions can not be factored in no matter what has occurred in the past. What has happened in the past has no relationship to what is going on today, we are truly in uncharted territory. Let TPTB play their game, they are in complete control, just sit back and buy PMs whenever you can regardless of the fiat price, it's the only way you will have any peace.

You either believe in TEOTGKE or you don't.... it really is that simple.

IMO - Hang wringing, staring at charts, trying to analyze future movements is a waste of time.

Know what you know and accept it, or just go away. I believe the stackers will be rewarded in the end.

Spirit In The Sky Norman Greenbaum
Green Lantern
Apr 13, 2013 - 5:21pm

That is a most EXCELLENT,

That is a most EXCELLENT, lucid, professional, humble, believable commentary! That post deserves to be pinned up someplace accesible for people to read in the future as an extended mission statement It nicely summarizes what you and Turdville are about.

Chevy Thunder
Apr 13, 2013 - 5:21pm

Are idiots entitled to their view?

Regarding people who are entitled to their view on things....

Sure, you're right, people are entitled to be as idiotic as they wish. But when you decide to be an idiot, expect others who know better to call you out on it, especially if your idiocy has the potential to fuck up other people's wealth.

When someone is absolutely wrong about something and utterly blind to the consequences of their belief, they should be prepared to be called an idiot. That's just life.

Apr 13, 2013 - 5:25pm

turd,santa and allthe other heros

during yesterdays beat down i may have come on strong to santa (bout all the bottom calls) but never would i ever mean it out of disrespect..... for anyone who would put themselves out there to lead like you guys do... turd,santa and the Godfather chappy......turdites you do realize when the war gets really serious and the elites come.... guys like santa, turd and the other heros willbe the first to get taken away....grab yourselves now and realize WE will then have torun and hide or rise up to fight for them.......


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