Gold and Silver pre-BLSBS

250
Thu, Apr 4, 2013 - 3:16pm

Well, here we are. The moment of truth. It's all on the line. This is the place. This is the time.

There's so much going on that I don't even know where to start. Frankly, I don't think I'll allow myself to start because, if I do, I'll likely end up typing for the next couple of hours and I don't have that kind of time, at least not today. So let's summarize a few things, instead. (In random order)

  • The ECB leaves rates unchanged but claims that the "economic risks are to the downside". No shit. You don't say?
  • The Bank of Japan, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to print the equivalent of $200B/month or $2.4T/ year in a desperate attempt to create inflation and "growth". Shrewd.
  • Initial jobless claims came in much, much higher today than anyone expected. This is the fifth or sixth economic data point this week that has been lousy and a "disappointment".
  • The GLD continues to be drained, falling again yesterday by 2.7 mts to 1,206.22 and now down 10.64% year-to-date.
  • The situation with the N-Kos is growing more surreal with each passing day. I'm 99% sure that this "crisis" will end just like all the others over the past 60 years. However, it's all so odd. It's almost as if the U.S. is baiting the N-Kos to act. Maybe they hope the Lil' Kim will do something out of a desperate attempt to save face and, after doing so, a different regime will take over, one that is more palatable to the entire world? Hell, I don't know. Like I said, it's getting more surreal each day.
  • The metals were getting ready to take another pounding today but the claims numbers forced a retreat/rethinking of the spec shorts. Yesterday, though, had a capitulative quality as we actually saw both metals OI decrease. With no follow-trough today, maybe the worst is behind us.
  • I'd still put the chances of a brief break of support at 50/50. In fact, I'm kind of pulling for it to happen. As mentioned yesterday, a quick drop through $1525 and $26 would be The Final Capitulation that would suck in all the remaining shorts as well as clean out any selling associated with the cornucopia of sell-stops below those levels.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow. With sentiment as lousy as it is and the spec shorts so clearly in charge, it's going to take an horrific jobs number tomorrow in order for us to see a major squeeze. The most likely scenario would be a number that, at first glance, doesn't look too shabby. As is often the case, the initial move would then be a headfake. Maybe gold immediately drops to $1525-1535 and silver plunges below $26.50 and toward $26. At that point, they reverse as cooler heads digest the report and notice worsening internals like the participation rate. Price bounces on the backs of The Greatest Fool shorts and we actually end up with an Outside Reversal Day to mark The Bottom. For an ORD tomorrow we would need to bottom below today's low of $1539.40 and then, preferably, close above today's high of $1559.30.

As mentioned frequently here over the past several weeks and reiterated these past 48 hours, we could see The Final Washout, too. Maybe the NFP number exceeds 225,000 and the rate falls to 7.5%. In that case, we might get our Washout. Either way for those addicted gamblers out there, tomorrow promises to be a day of significance. For the rest of us, tomorrow and/or early next week look to be terrific opportunities to once again add to our stacks at outrageously discounted prices. (Please click the HardAssetsAlliance link or visit the TurdMart Metals page when doing so ) https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store

Here are the best two charts I can give you. Note that, if I'm right about long-term support holding, the the metals are poised to finally close out these current downtrends and begin new UPtrends, instead.

Lastly, we should note that today marks the 45th anniversary of the murder of Dr. King. Look, I know he was a philanderer and he possessed many of the same weaknesses as all of us, but his contributions toward the advancement of equality and freedom need to be respected and appreciated. Though taken too soon, he clearly lived a life of meaning and significance.

U2 - MLK

Have a great evening and overnight and get ready for a wild ride on Friday.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  250 Comments

AlexCojones
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:22pm

Wonder if any of that New Yen will be used to Fix....

....Fucking Fukushima...Pardon my French.

¤
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:36pm

Tomorrow's News Today ~ April 5

North Korea Cramping China’s Anti-Access Style

By Harry Kazianis

April 5, 2013

EBG6NYSM4VCJ

Over the last several years nothing has peaked my curiosity more than China’s various anti-access developments. Things like “carrier-killer” missiles, ultra quiet diesel submarines, advanced mines, and even various types of cyberwarfare capabilities all illicit various reactions depending on where you sit in East Asia or even globally. The People’s Republic has surely developed some impressive capabilities with the intention of denying or delaying the arrival of large combat forces into a contested area of military operations. And while such capabilities are developed with the United States largely in mind, it might be North Korea that ends up negating some of Beijing’s new military capabilities – not America’s pivot or rebalance.

Over the last few weeks, Pyongyang has made various threats that have driven tremendous amounts of fear and anxiety around the world. In response, the United States has made several shows of force in an effort to demonstrate its resolve. B-52s, B-2s, and F-22s have all been used to signal to North Korea that such intense rhetoric and dubious claims would be met with the reality of American and South Korean military power. For its part, South Korea’s leadership has made it clear that North Korean provocations crossing from words into deeds would be met with a strong response.

Today reports surfaced that North Korea may indeed move beyond threats – possibly preparing another missile test. Such reports clearly demonstrate that the United States along with Japan and South Korea face a long-term strategic challenge of defending against what could be ever more sophisticated North Korean missiles. Indeed, the United States has moved various sea-based missile defense assets like the USS John S. McCain and the Sea-Based X-Band Radar system into the area to protect U.S. and allied forces as well as civilian targets from attack. The U.S. is also moving THADD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System) to defend Guam from a possible missile attack.

While such shows of force and tough words by all sides are important, one must look to the long-term consequences of North Korea’s latest provocations and how they impact the long-term strategic balance in East Asia....(cont.)

https://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/04/05/north-korea-crimping-chinas-anti-access-style/

Threefoottwo
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:36pm

Fukushima

NK might lob a scud near the tenuous reactor resulting an end to the dispute over ownership of the entire ocean and the oil under water?

old tradesman
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:40pm

(No subject)

[Admin Note: If you wish to post images on the site, they either need to be posted on a service like Flickr or Photobucket, or uploaded. Copying and pasting images from an email are usually not effective.]

Magpie
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:44pm

OT: Words from a Bosnian Survivalist

https://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=72 Some interesting things to think about if Lil' Kim makes good on his promises.

S Roche
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:45pm

@rtabit re volume

The Netdania spot volume is the interbank market, ie London and it previously tracked the LBMA published figures for ounces traded and sold, until they changed the numbers/units in late 2011. Today they are units and so only relate to previous ND volumes as a comparison.

Despite what Ted Butler says the interbank volume is about 10 times the Comex volume for gold and about 4 times for silver, estimates vary but from my reading these seem to be about consensus numbers. Comex is a sideshow because it is "regulated" and positions are published, therefore all large positions are arbitraged via the interbank market and never net positions. imao.

Save_America1st
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:45pm
Mammoth
Apr 4, 2013 - 5:53pm

Separation Between Physical vs. Paper Silver

Now for today's LCS report:

I just telephoned the two local coin sellers. Neither of them have any Silver Dollars and I have never known them to be out of these for so long. One of them is actually out of everything; he complained he can no longer purchase 'Junk Silver' without having to pay a premium over spot. But the other told me that he still has some coins available.

Although I will bring a printout of Coinflation's prices for Silver coins, I am not going to be anal and insist this is what the coins must cost. But I will show it to them and report back here on the separation between Physical vs. spot prices.

¤
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:06pm

The BOJ's Bazooka Approach

Will the massive expansion of Japan's monetary base allow it (publicly or not) to purchase even more UST's while also at the same time allow the US to slacken their known monetization if the UST purchases are still taking place from someone else?

It seems like a backdoor policy of keeping UST purchases stable could possibly happen via this method. None of this means that the US won't help Japan with these purchases in some type of Fed swapline assistance and they would essentially still be monetizing our debt but in an undercover way using Japan as their proxy. The BOJ doubled their QE today!

At this point in time after what we've all seen, I'm not excluding any possibility from the Fed at all.

They could publicly posture about draining the punchbowl (and the market) while still getting their UST's purchased. There is no doubt in my mind that some significant orchestration is taking place between the Fed and BOJ and some other CB's.

Just look at today's UST action for an indication something isn't right... U.S. 10yr

Fisher says the BOJ stimulus won't pressure U.S. policy...but might it enable it to do other things because of it? I'm not putting anything past them as we move forward.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Fed’s Fisher Says BOJ Stimulus Won’t Pressure U.S. Policy

"The BOJ plans to purchase 7.5 trillion yen ($78.6 billion) of bonds a month and double the monetary base, which includes cash in circulation, in two years, the central bank said inTokyo today. That exceeded economists’ median estimate of 5.2 trillion yen a month and is the biggest move since quantitative easing began in 2001."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-04/fed-s-fisher-says-boj-stimulus-won-t-pressure-u-s-policy.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Daily Disconnect (Or Did Cyprus Matter?)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2013 - 15:34

With the 10Y Treasury yield trading with a 1.75% handle - its lowest of the year - it would appear that the fallout from Cyprus (storm-in-a-teacup or not) has had a significant impact on cross-asset class correlations. With safe-haven sectors the only bid holding up a fragile US equity market and EURJPY having been discarded by the algos for any pump-and-dump, it appears stocks are on their own now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:08pm

Yes, there was an issue a bit

Yes, there was an issue a bit earlier where browser cookies and server sessions had gotten disconnected, so if someone logged out and tried to log back in, it may not render the content correctly. Should all be in order. Thanks for your patience.

AlexCojones
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:08pm

America is Now an Apartheid State

Or When is Jon Corzine going to be on American Greed - and then Jail?

Separation of Races & Classes by the Power & Protection of Money is Apartheid.

zman
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:10pm

DPH

That is a very good point, maybe the BOJ will help ease the burden for the FED, and give the FED its exit.

But would they be able to buy trillions of US bonds, it seems like a risky game plan in many ways, but the point is to drag on the game for as long as possible.

Everyday we think it can't get more insane, yet somehow it does.

Bollocks
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:12pm
Texas Sandman
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:13pm

@JunkBlues

Got me in the act. Bought my first $100 bag of 90% junk today.

Soon I'll be dressing like a hassidic diamond merchant & eating 3 whole chickens.

Mr. Fix
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:14pm

More monkey business.

CME Hikes Yen, Nikkei Futures Margins By 19%-33%

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2013 - 18:06

Two years ago, warning of a bubble in gold/silver/PMs was all the rage. Luckily, those days are long gone, allowing one to accumulative hard assets in peace, in a declining paper price environment, without the thundering herd in the rearview mirror. Nowadays, the ever-"vigilant" mainstream media has moved on, and has been so very observent to spot a new bubble in bitcoins. As we always do, we decided to have some fun at the MSM's expense, and tweeted the following earlier today:

It appears the CME heard us, and moments ago proceeded to hike margins across the entire Yen future spectrum by anywhere between 19% and 33%.


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:21pm

Hate to give away my great idea

but it has been tried before, in 1899. Unfortunately, you need to be an expert in 'aurifercus brickmaking', and trust me, we all wish we were:

Golden Treasure Waterlogged; a Fortune Lies in a Sunken Ship's Keel

CAPE TOWN, Aug. 2. -- A remarkable tale of treasure trove comes from Natal, "the Garden Colony" of South Africa. The main facts of the narrative, which reads more like the creation of a fervid imagination than sober truth, have now been established beyond doubt.

https://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=F10A15FD3C5911738DDDAE0A94D0405B8985F0D3

https://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F10A15FD3C5911738DDDAE0A94D0405B8985F0D3

Bobbejaan
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:24pm

Excellent Article ..... Doug Casey - All Banks Are Bankrupt

Quote:
Doug Casey (Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

L: Doug, there is considerable disagreement over the significance of the Cyprus crisis. A lot of people are saying that it's just a flash in the pan; Cyprus is a small country, far off, and doesn't really matter. Other people are saying it's very significant. The European Central Bank took unprecedented steps. What do you think?

Doug: I think this could be the spark that ignites the keg of dynamite under the current financial system. All banks, all around the world, are bankrupt, and have been for years. That's because all the world's banks run on a fractional reserve basis.

L: I know what you mean, but we should spell that out: by law and backed with government guarantees, banks only have to keep a tiny fraction of the money people deposit on hand. They lend out the vast bulk of it, and in even in good times, they could not return all depositors' money at once, since loans cannot be called in instantaneously, and most would be defaulted on if they were. In bad times, the charade is even more hollow, since many loans that banks are currently owed will never ever get paid.

Doug: Yes, and they are all in that position. It was more serious in Cyprus because that economy is very leveraged to finance. In other words Cyprus was a banking epicenter for Europe. It was easier to make deposits – there were fewer questions asked – making banking the major business of the country. But I think the trouble will spread from there. It could spread to Luxembourg or Malta next; both are at least as leveraged to the financial sector as Cyprus. And from there... who knows?

Anyone with any sense should withdraw whatever cash they have in European banks, whether in euros or any other currency, immediately. Cyprus demonstrated that governments are quite willing and able to confiscate money sitting in a bank account in order to preserve the banking system. We live in Bizarro World.

I consider this an excellent "Must Read" article ... I wholeheartedly recommend it to all :-

https://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/doug-casey-all-banks-are-bankrupt

.


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:27pm

@Bollocks re: gold smuggling

Touche. I did not see your earlier post on the other (one of about 8 over the last 2 days) thread...

I would say well played, well played -- but now that I look at it, it's a pretty wimpy post, ennit? No humor, no entendre (double or otherwise). No follow-up with more details as they became available.

Your bland post (albeit the first) just did not serve up the information in a way so as to entice readers to jump on it.

Frankly, I am a little disappointed in you. I've come to expect better....

¤
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:28pm

Sandman

Lol! You just made Jake's day.

I really like Franklin's and Walking Liberty halves. Congrats on your purchase!


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:33pm

Smuggling gold in cars

Current top story on ZH:

A Ton Of Gold Bricks: What Capital Flight Looks Like In Italy

ZH's video link is broken at the moment (and it was 'only' 110 kilos anyway), but you can see (what they want you to see) in this report clip via ABC news, and read a more detailed account here.

Contrary to what the news stories say (bricks/ingots wrapped in newspaper & duct tape), there seems to be no such covering in this source video (which look like was filmed by the customs agents) -- re-enactment, perhaps? (edit: as Bollock's earlier story on the same subject points out, yes, this is a demo/mock-up after the fact)

Video unavailable

All b/c the poor guy did not have a good cover story, nor sufficient experience with illegal border crossings.

Does is seem to anyone else like these bars are NOT mint-issued - no markings, stamping, lettering or any kind? Cash-for-Gold plunder melted down, perhaps?

_____________________________________________________________________________

In any case, I have been waiting for a news item like this to share a much more sophisticated method of gold smuggling. For fans of Depression-era light-hearted pulp fiction, this is a comedy classic. While translations always lose some of the original, it is the only version of the book by this writer that I could find in English, so it will have to do:

The 14-Carat Roadster (.pdf) (the itself book is text-only, images below are the only illustrations I could find)


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:35pm

Bollocks

Second mouse gets the cheese.

edit: third mouse.


Apr 4, 2013 - 6:40pm

and though I hate to reference anything

involving Alan Alda (please don't try to make me like him) his character had one heck of a car in the Tower.

Tower Heist #1 Movie CLIP - Steve McQueen's Car (2011) HD
ancientmoney
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:43pm

Snippet from Paul Craig Roberts' latest . .

former Asst. Treasury Secretary:

"“The manipulation of the bullion market is illegal, but as government is doing it the law will not be enforced. It is an act of desperation. If bullion were not a threat, the government would not be attacking it.

The fact that the Federal Reserve is short selling bullion means that there is something desperate going on, and I assume it’s related to the US dollar. If the dollar drops sharply in exchange value the Fed can’t control the interest rate and the bond price and so all of the bubbles would blow up."

Texas Sandman
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:46pm

@DPH

Just occurs to me you don't want to be totally monolithic. I have lots & lots of 100 oz bars, a fair number of ASEs and had NO JUNK (at least before today). I don't want to get totally junked out, but if silver goes totally nuts (not like $50 but $500/oz) I could even have trouble bartering an ASE for a tank of gas, at least not without throwing money out in the street.

It's more disaster insurance.

And it does look like the junk will be the first stuff to become unavailable at any price. I don't know what that means, but it is reality.

rtabit
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:54pm

@S Roche Volume

Thanks. "Today they are units and so only relate to previous ND volumes as a comparison."

What does this mean? Maybe I'd understand it if I knew what ND stood for.

rtabit
Apr 4, 2013 - 6:58pm

@Texas Sandman

"I don't want to get totally junked out"

I disagree, I say Funk Out With Your Junk Out.


Apr 4, 2013 - 7:05pm

Just don't put all your

junk in your trunk!

treefrog
Apr 4, 2013 - 7:05pm

sandman,

i was 21 years old in 1965 when i saw my first "shit sandwich" (copper - nickel u.s. crap) coin on returning to the states after studying abroad. i grew up with real silver coins. i think it is unfortunate that real coinage has become known by the name "junk." to my mind, it's the "shit sandwiches" that are junk.

i think it is a tragedy that a whole generation has grown up in this country with debased coinage. they think it's normal. bah! it's an abomination - a swindle.

at least the chinese have not forgotten. they think in terms of generations and centuries, not weeks and months as we do. the chinese have an ancient cultural affinity for silver. i expect they will be the first to bring it back into actual use. their sun is rising as ours sets.

my niece studied mandarin at the university. i thought then it was foresighted. now i know it was.

Texas Sandman
Apr 4, 2013 - 7:09pm

@treefrog - fallen & falling empires

Rome was into making their coins into shit sandwiches about the same time they got preoccupied with invading every country they could. And they went to the ash-heap of history.

Now we've seen the US doing the same thing as it falls into oblivion.

Sometimes all you can do is smile.

القراع عصفور
Apr 4, 2013 - 7:10pm

junk jokes

Confucious say, man who walk through airport turnstile sideways, going to Bangkok.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)

Recent Comments