Changes Ahead

228
Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - 6:01pm

Do you ever have one of those days where there is so much swirling in your head that you don't even know where to start? Where you're frustrated, a little angry and out of patience. And it seems like I've missed so much by being out Monday to Wednesday. Well, here goes anyway...

First of all, can we find a bottom to this latest price disaster? I believe so, yes, but perhaps not yet. Do you recall last week when we were so closely watching crude, copper and platinum? I mentioned then that all three seemed to be at critical junctures and, if they weakened, the selling would undoubtedly spill over into the PMs. Well, I'm not going to attempt to solve the chicken vs egg thing here but clearly this is all connected. Looking now at the damaged charts, all three look like they have a bit farther to go, too.

We'd discussed at length the virtue of dumping crude at $98 and waiting for a pullback toward $93. Now that we're there, crude looks like it may want to jab a little lower still. Maybe $91 or even $90. And isn't it convenient that, just as U.S. gasoline prices were staring at 4 bucks a gallon, crude got jammed lower in....ummm...let's just say "suspicious" circumstances? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/did-someone-intentionally-try-crash-crude-contract

Maybe you think that crude is simply falling because the economy is "soft"? Hmmm, of course, that's the reason that copper is sinking like a stone, too! (No wait a minute. Crude and copper are falling because the U.S and the global economies are "soft". Yet, one Fed Goon after another is being marched out to proclaim an early end to QE∞ because he economy is so rapidly improving! Which is it?)

Could it be that everything is centrally-planned now? That every single market is manipulated into painting a MOPEd picture that buys time and forestalls the inevitable collapse? Back on January 31, I told you to soon expect a string of Fed Goons and euro-negative headlines because the POSX had reached a critical support point near 79. What has happened since? What did you expect??

And then there's Sylvia. Unleashed earlier this year, she ran from $1525 to $1750 in little over a month. On the verge of a breakout that would have had an undeniably positive effect on gold and silver, it has since been hammered back almost 10%.

So what does all this mean? Well, if crude, copper, the euro and platinum all appear to have a little more weakness ahead and the POSX looks like it could rally further, then the PM smashdown likely isn't completed yet, either.

Not that they don't look like they potentially bottomed...they do...look at the RSIs for the love of Pete! However, at this point, I'm expecting one more jab down. Maybe break gold down briefly under $1550 and silver under $28, with nice little hammers or tails or wicks or whatever you want to call them hanging down off of the candles...just like the bottoms we've seen in the past.

And now just some random stuff...

I give old Clive a rash of sht from time to time but he sure nailed it this time. Gotta give credit where credit is due.

But you've got to respect Santa, too. He'd been warning us all for the past two weeks or so that this carnage was coming...and he was right. But he's been emphatic that the rebound in March would se spectacular. I guess we'll see.

And if you haven't yet, you need to check this out. The guy running this forum thread is relatively new to Turdville and he warned me when he joined that he had a lot of good info to share. After reading through the thread, you'll see that that was an understatement. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade

In case you didn't notice, the GLD shed an amazing 20.77 metric tonnes yesterday. This means that, year-to-date, 50.73 metric tonnes have been withdrawn. That is 1,631,000 troy ounces or 4,078 London good delivery bars. If you were to stack them on a pallet in layers of 40, the stack would be 102 bars high or, roughly, 9.5 feet tall. <edit> (And another 8.88 mts got yanked out today 2/21. This makes the YTD w/d 59.5 mts or nearly 5% of total "inventory".)

I promised you a "hot, explosive and historic" summer last year and now we find ourselves all the way back at last summer's lows. It sucks and it's hard for me to describe the anger and betrayal I feel almost every day because of it. Your regulators, your...public servants...have chosen, for six months, to do nothing. All the while, the Evil Ones they protect have been allowed to, once again, fleece the investing public by selling naked shorts into a rally and then contriving a selloff in order to cover and profit. You know...<sigh>...I've tried to hold the despair at bay. Since my "awakening", a part of me has always hoped that maybe, just maybe, it wasn't all as bad as it seems. That the banks and other corporations don't actually control the machinations of power. That "government of the people, by the people and for the people" still actually existed. And then you get the CFTC and you begin to realize that things truly are as bad as they seem.

The folks that show up here to criticize me for being "wrong 100% of the time" crack me up. I'm simply doing my best and, if you'll recall, I'm out of the trading business anyway. To compensate, last April I was able to line up for you the legendary Andrew Maguire. Andy only offers his services to huge sovereign and hedge funds but I was able to get him to cook up a retail service, just for you! And yet, only a handful of you have subscribed, choosing instead to go it alone. And then ridicule me and my increasingly useless charts when you lose money. Oh, I know...it costs too much. sad Really? And how much money have you lost in the past week alone by attempting to do it all yourself?!?

And then there are the European socialists that always show up during the corrections and blast away at me for being "greedy" and "only in it for the money". One of them actually claimed yesterday that I was conflicted because I have advertisements. This in contrast to KWN which "has no ads or sponsors". Really?? Are you freaking blind and deaf? Maybe we should change your username to HelenKeller? Have you never heard Eric's 60-second intro to each interview in which he extols the virtues of such-and-such miner? Do you think he does that out of the goodness of his heart?

And why the heck can't I run ads? Do I not deserve to be compensated for my time? In the time-honored tradition of European socialism, I guess not. I've sunk about 40 grand of my own money into this site and, after expenses, the ads help it to run a "profit" each month of about $2000-3000. All of this for my non-stop, incessant worry, stress and work, to the tune of about 60 hours per week. By my math, that's about $10/hour or so and far less than what the average socialist worker gets paid in Germany, Austria or France. So cut me some freaking slack, OK?

So what I guess I'm building up to is this: Today I have made the financial commitment to begin changing this site. The changes will be gradual but will be increasingly apparent within the next 90 days or so. If it sucks and I blow the whole thing up, then so be it. However we can't continue on this way. Do you realize that this site is #42,176 in the world in terms of traffic? It is also either #4 or #5 in the PM blogosphere yet it is essentially a sole proprietorship. I do it all...the content, the moderation, selling ads, answering questions. Everything. My hope is that, with a little help, I can devote more time and energy to the charting and analysis that brought you here in the first place. I have a vision and a plan for making this site more fun, more interesting and more troll-free. We are here to learn and help each other and these changes will advance both causes.

And that's it for now. More selling is likely overnight and again at the Comex open tomorrow. Maybe we'll get the final dip. Maybe not...we'll see. More tomorrow.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 191

  228 Comments

Silverman · Feb 22, 2013 - 12:50am

Silver trade

Closed short position at 28.70

Beastly Stack · Feb 22, 2013 - 12:51am

I need to go to bed

Holy SMOLY- Turd you gave me the inspiration to write but I will blame you in the morning when I can't wake up and do what I have to do! I feel that this is another MUST READ and would really appreciate it if you could share with as many as posssible. Thank you so much for reading, I really appreciate it!

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/02/lets-try-this.html

Good Night and Good morning to those of you on the other side of the pond!

alwaysbullish · Feb 22, 2013 - 2:25am

TFMR

TFMR has become an integral part of my life. I sped most of my free time at home reading the blog. 

When I joined, I asked for trading help and books etc. I checked Andrews service but the service change there is more than the monthly amount I put in in my trading account. 

I will agree that going solo is difficult if you are not a seasoned trader. The last week has been a washout for my trading account. I bought in early last week was nibbling slowly the entire week, but the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' has been true for me.

Now when the market is presenting a buy situation, I am out. People at TFMR told me to buy physical, but I want to make one big kill for the so that i could part prepay my home loan and then wait for the gold/silver price reset.

Lets see will have to start again from scratch. another 100 meter dash.

Turd - your site has been very helpful in our journey so far. and making me learn about all the mope around. Do inform if I can help out in anyway for the new change you are coming up with.

Tabberto · Feb 22, 2013 - 3:06am

THOUGHT ID POSTED

already but cant find it (!)

This documentary is excellent and carries a tiny bit of Turdville within it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01qxmwp/Storyville_20122013_How_H...

Eric King · Feb 22, 2013 - 3:29am

Gold to $1,000,000

Dont forget to check out the blog over at kingworldnews.com

koan · Feb 22, 2013 - 4:16am

@Eric King

Why stop at 6 zeros? If the seemingly inevitable hyperinflation materializes then a few more can be tagged on before the USD pukes up and finally dies...just like all other fiat currencies, given enough time, we shaft 'em all!

Excalibur · Feb 22, 2013 - 4:23am

'Hold your nerve'

This echoes most of what Turd has been saying for a long time. Turd is holding his nerve. Are we?

Gold’s Death Cross is a buy signal for China

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: February 21st, 2013

141 Comments Comment on this article

Gold price has dropped below $1,600 for first time in six months

It is a treacherous moment for gold bugs.

The first whiff of future tightening from the US Federal Reserve has sent bullion into a nose-dive, triggering a much-feared “Death’s Cross” sell signal on gold futures.

Gold has dropped by over $100 an ounce in ten days, touching $1556 this morning. The HUI index of gold mining stocks broke down weeks ago – as so often leading gold itself by a few weeks – and has already crashed to levels last seen in 2009.

Goldman Sachs has cut its long-term forecast to $1,200. Credit Suisse and UBS are bearish.

Citigroup says the great bull market of the last 12 years is over. The “long cycle” has peaked. Economic recovery has yanked away the key support. So long as there are no big “street riots” this year, investors will stop buying precious metals as Armaggedon insurance and rotate instead into stocks that generate income. Such at least is the argument.

This is more of less what the market would look like and feel like if the gold rally really were to fizzle out, leaving behind an army of small investors who joined the party late and face deepening losses for twenty years – as they did from 1981 to 1999.

If it were true that the Fed is preparing to unwind QE, I would agree – up to a point – that gold faces a nasty squall. But all we had from the minutes was a comment that an undisclosed number of FOMC voters fear inflation and financial bubbles and think the Fed should stand ready to cut back on bond purchases earlier than thought.

How many times before have we heard “exit talk” from Fed hawks? We know who they are. They make a lot of noise. They are routinely ignored. The policy is dictated by the Fed Board and by Ben Bernanke, and there is little sign yet that the board is about to turn.

Full article

https://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022953/g...

Byzantium · Feb 22, 2013 - 4:41am

A message to the shorts:

He who covers first, covers best!

Excalibur · Feb 22, 2013 - 5:55am

@Excalibur: Great find.

@Excalibur: Great find. Evans-Prichard is one of the few mainstream guys who sort of gets it. Sometimes he just mouths the elites memes, but he also occasionally steps out of his cage a gets all truthy. It remains to be seen which role he's playing on this one.

ggnewmex · Feb 22, 2013 - 6:39am

TF

Hey, been a long time supporter. 

I appreciate this site and the sense of community very much. Sure, i wish you were right 100% of the time, and so do I wish that I was correct 100% of the time. hey, we do the best we can with the information we have. I am proud of your tenacity TF.

It is like watching the stock market..... we are sitting around ALL-TIME HIGHS. WHAT!!!!!! It really burns me when you see the rest of the world imploding.... when 1/2 the population of this country is poor ( Wal-mart sales encapsulates this)..... when as the one writer put it from Canada..." the half that pay no taxes criticize the half that does as being unfair" ..... how can this be? Further, we have a MSM is so unintelligent to as not to be able to understand how it is we have TRILLION $$ deficits, (effective printing by QE, because at virtually 0% interest rates, no other country wants to buy our stuff in mass any longer)...... yeah the list goes on and on..

A BIG THANK YOU TF for everything.

This one man appreciates it greatly

gg

RaRaRasputin · Feb 22, 2013 - 6:45am

Is the tide turning for the Rothschilds?

Rothschild puts reputation at stake in Battle of Bumi

With this interesting little inclusion:

By way of sub-plot, they have hired Rothschild Group, the investment bank under the French branch of the family's influence, to work to defeat Rothschild, a fifth-generation member of the UK side of the dynasty.

https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/17/nathaniel-rothschild-gro...

Nat Rothschild has lost his high-stakes power struggle to clear out the board of beleaguered coal miner Bumi.

 At one point, it had appeared that the vote could go his way. However, a pivotal development was that Rosan Roeslani, an Indonesian investor deemed to be part of the Bakries’ shareholder “concert party”, sold a 13pc stake to three buyers, meaning the shares could be voted.

Mr Rothschild argued: “It was only an eleventh hour transaction ... this week that saved the current board from a landslide defeat with a roughly 20pc swing in their favour.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/9886726...

I wonder who those three buyers were??

Beastly Stack · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:21am

In Case

You were wondering, I am up and at it!

Great weekend to all!

https://tradermartinstake.com/

philipat · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:27am

Bumi

The Bakrie's are the pre-eminent "Prebumi = Indigenous Malay as opposed to ethnic Chinese" business family/group in Indonesia and are politically wired. Indeed, Aburizal Bakrie could end up as the country's next President. NR holds a minority stake in the listed legal entity/ies.

Now, faced with the above and the fact that all the resources are physically located in Indonesia, if you were an independent shareholder looking after the interests of your investors, which way would you vote??

NR may very well be correct that the current board is corrupt. This is Indonesia, where everything involving Government/Corporations is corrupt. But in Indonesia, as with other Developing Markets, you have to play the game the way the locals play. NR was naive at best to think he could force his Agenda in these circumstances. Perhaps they should stick to Banking?

Gold Dog · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:31am

On Maguire

Listen up peeps!

I have been trading my whole life. I got my license on my 21st birthday and went straight to work on a bond desk. Since then I have had several successful careers but have kept trading all along. Continuing to refine my skills through, among other things my own version of The Turtle Trading Rules.

I have a LOT of money, so much that in fact I have been on vacation for the last several months with brief visits home to change from tropical to winter kit. I am currently on a long string of days snowmobiling in the north woods of the U.S. (Prior to this I have been on an extended trip through the Caribbean and spent some time in South America and then hit the slopes in various spots in the Rockies.)

Prior to my "running away to paradise" I was a member of Turd's Army" and had the privilege of receiving Andrew's trades. They did nothing but make me more money!

Andrew is the real deal, using just his trades I made almost as much, on a per contract basis as is listed in the advertisements!!

There are only two small problems to deal with: 1) You have to be awake during London trading, and 2) there is a slight time gap between when Andrew puts on a trade and when it pops on your email. He frequently will put on a position and the market will have run several ticks before you can jump in, or not. He uses tight stops on about half of his trades so you better be quick on your trading ladder. I suggest Go Futures or the Think or Swim platform by TDAmeritrade for quick trades.

Even with these drawbacks I made a potload using his system and his backup Paul is helpful smart and knows the business inside and out. Part of the service is to teach you how to use the forks for your own trading.

In short, if you want to make a pile of loot and are willing to take a few days to test which device you have that gets Andrew's emails the fastest I cannot recommend this service more! A Gold Contract takes margin of around $5,000 per and I think a round-trip on both platforms is about $10.

I, like our esteemed Turd, am mystified that more Turdites are not making an extra 50-75 grand a year by following Andrew. I am so convinced of his abilities that if my 25 year old son, who has spent four summers clerking in the Corn Pit at the CBOT, has not found a real job when I next get home I am resubscribing to the service and having him stay up at night to trade. I usually trade 20 contracts so it will be no problem to pay him $150,000 a year to "monkey see, monkey do" as someone posted above.

Try "monkey-see, monkey do, monkey buy a 100 hour NetJet card!"

I am available to answer questions for the next couple of hours before we pull the sleds out and go have a blast.

Dog

PS- If you don't have 10 or 15 grand to trade with, you have bigger problems than Turd or Andrew can help you with.

PPS- Trading is a big boy game for big boys. There will be loses from time to time, if you are a whiner, get lost!

Urban Roman · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:36am

Miners

I have seen some mention of the miners in this thread. 

And I realize that my advice is worth probably less than Turd's, but I would urge extreme caution in the miners. 

The reasons: 1) all that peak oil stuff SRSRocco talks about is for reals; and 2) as an unintended consequence of keeping metal prices low, the miners are systematically driven out of business. 

The miners will not rally any time soon, and many of them are simply going to disappear. 

Urban Roman · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:42am

@Dog,

Thanks for that post. 

I am not a trader, but the numbers look so tempting. I have no doubt that Maguire is the real deal, but have no experience with day-trading platforms. And it looks like quite a jump for me. But tempting. 

ag1969 · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:57am

Gold, silver coins acceptable forms of payment?

PHOENIX -- Arizonans who fear the federal government will make their folding money worthless may soon be able to substitute privately minted gold and silver coins.

The Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday took the first steps to making such coins legal tender in Arizona. SB1439 would give them the same legal status as bills and coins authorized by Congress.

Nothing in the proposal by Sen. Chester Crandell, R-Heber, would force anyone to actually accept these coins as payment for any debt. Their use would be voluntary.

But proponents said it's only a matter of time before the country suffers hyperinflation, making the greenback worthless.

"We need to have a lifeboat for Arizona so we can construct Plan B," testified Miles Lester........

https://azdailysun.com/news/local/state-and-regional/gold-silver-coins-a...

ivars · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:58am

Should leave my job to trade

Should leave my job to trade with Andy.

Maybe its worth it?

Bill of Rights · Feb 22, 2013 - 7:59am

Morning all, loving this

Morning all, loving this price action. The more these Metal prices keep dropping the more expansive it gets. Like AMMO when the supply is depleted the $ price is meaningless as it will not be found anywhere. IE: Priceless

Dont play the commodities sector with emotion you will lose every time. Silver like Gold is an asset you buy and store, not buy and trade. I could careless if it drops to a Quarter I have no reason to sell, but trillions of reasons to keep buying.

Mudsharkbytes · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:03am

Reason why more people aren't taking advantage of "Turd's Army"…

…probably a combination of:

1) The majority of people who frequent TFMR are stackers who have little experience in trading or used to but gave up on trying, that certainly is case with me.

2) The $500 monthly fee discourages a lot of people who are 'on the fence'.

It's just a guess, but I'd imagine if there were some incentives to try the service at first, for example, a reduced rate for the first month or a certain number of free email alerts initially, something like along those lines, more people would be motivated to give it a try. Once they were successful, they'd stick with it.

I'm happy Gold Dog is doing so well - I have nothing but respect for successful people - but it's a little condescending to insinuate if somebody isn't sitting on an extra 10 - 15 grand to play with they have big problems. There are other things besides FRN's one can sit on to defray problems.

I'd take it as a given that probably most of the people that frequent this site aren't sitting on wads of unneeded FRN's to trade with on a daily basis, but could get their hands on enough easily if they liquidated a portion of their stack, and the problem with THAT for me is, I don't like the risk involved in reducing the size of my stack (once I fish it out of pond). The crows are going to come home to rest eventually, it's inevitable. When that will happen is anybody's guess, but it could and probably WILL be sudden and unexpected. Ever since the May Day massacre, every single time I make a PM purchase, be it online or at the LCS and regardless of size, the paper price of the asset I just purchased drops by at least 2% within the week. It's happened so often I've come to expect it. To me, since my purchases are / have been such a contrary indicator of the market for the last several years, I sort of expect the opposite to happen when / if I decide to liquidate any of my PM's. It'd be just my luck that I decide to sell a portion of my stack to fund a stake so I can take advantage of the "Turd's Army" service, and as soon as I do, the value of the PM's I'd just liquidated explodes to the upside, the market tanks, and there I am, left holding the bag, well, a smaller bag, anyway.

There are PLENTY of people that don't routinely sit on $15,000 stacks of extra FRN's wondering how to invest them that have little to worry about, Katie Rose comes to mind.

Groaner · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:04am

8am and the stocks are bidding higher today so will the

muppets strike? Have we sailed clear of the pending rocks below?

About Maguires service, yeah I should have jumped in.. the futures are so treacherous, the flash crashes are nuts.

Mickey · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:06am

Andy's trading service

One of the things I said early on is that the service is of best value if you are committed to being able to trade very quickly. 

We get these waterfalls quickly and you do not have much time to react. If you get the heads up and do react fast you are sitting pretty. Sometimes if you delay a minute but then react you are too late.

It's just the nature of this situation. 

Again, it's a situation that when you get the info you do not have time to stop and think about it.

Which is why you have to figure out for yourself if you are a short term trader, a swing trader or just a long term investor.

Mickey · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:08am

Armstrong

I begin to wonder if as part of his release agreement he agreed to publish with a tilt to what the govt wanted.

Just A Regular Guy · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:08am

Gold to 1200

Gold to $1200 = serious deflationary depression. I call bullshit. If gold is 1200 the Dow is like 1000-3000.

If in current currency terms gold went to $1200 the miners will be all broke/underwater and then there would be a lot less supply and the price of gold would be much much higher.

Anyone that would believe a word that Goldman Sach's ever said would do well to make sure they're holding onto their wallet/gold while reading.

Remember too kiddies, when this is all over and the mania phase begins every juniour stock is going to be @ insane levels. The mania in the juniour sector will probably be one of many/few indicators to get out.

I hated AAPL for about 12 months now, looks like I was right, and liked, and still like Nokia. The AAPL chart looks exactly/very similar to the shape a "mania" does thru. Or rather the four stages of a bubble.

Considering too how woeful the miners are doing at the moment I still call bullshit. When the miners I have start being valued closer to what they're actually worth, I will care what the above ass-hat bankers/analysts say. At the moment the market, was and is giving these stocks away for the cheap.

ivars · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:10am

GSR seems to have entered

GSR seems to have entered another fork (blue, up) . If so, 58 is median level ( silver 26- 26,5, gold 1500- 1535 ). Given the sequester and other things ( at least on propaganda level) happening right now around USG fiscal situation and FED actions, it should not take long to move there. May be few weeks. After that the bounce back should follow, but how strong? It will be only mid March, with a lot of things still ongoing with budget , and a war nowhere in sight.

Groaner · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:14am

So lets hear some thoughts about the action we just had

do we retest 1650 or so or chop higher?

Plus the majority of fridays have not been kind to the metals.. If the miners open up watch 10am they will die.. bummer

atomic180 · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:21am

ARMSTRONG...

The ELECTRO SHOCK THERAPY may have had something to do with his successful rehabilitation... 

DayStar Mickey · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:21am

RE: Armstrong

Mickey, I have been convinced that Armstrong made a deal ever since he got out of prison and started publishing the cartel party line.

DayStar

achmachat · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:28am

The hammer monkeys MUST have spies everywhere!

I order a mint box and all of a sudden a big red candlestick?

every. single. time.

Mickey · Feb 22, 2013 - 8:33am

Supply and demand

Is another important aspect.

we know the paper market has issues with the fractional reserve system in gear. Ie futures.

we also know many of the etf products do not really buy the real deal.

put aside the controversy over GLD and Slv and look at GLDI the new etn which just pays out the covered call index on GLD but is just an IOU from a bank, thus creating artificial supply in the paper market.

then we have the multiple claims on physical, whether allocated or not.

note, that I have not even started on the fundamentals.

as to king news. Yes, it's always bullish. However guys like Faber are top drawer and look at trends, not short term trading. 

Turk has made the mistake of giving price and time objectives.

sinclair has recently given specific time objectives which I do not think he has given in the past so we need to ask the question Why?

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