Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

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  548 Comments

Stock_Canines · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:47pm

One Day

One day silver and gold may be a lot higher due to some systematic collapse, but that day surely is not approaching anytime soon. Can anyone here tell me the catalyst for gold and silver to move higher in the next 6 - 12 months that does not include the word 'collapse' in it? I fear 2011 was the top in PMs.

agNau · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:48pm

March 27; Santa BD.......

Why the eminent move in metals prior to that date? Sequester BS March 1st......... It is all for show.....for political posturing......for feeding the sheep more falsehoods to carry the deception further down the road. First the idea we must raise the debt ceiling or "we are deadbeats". This creates the idea in the small of mind that unending money printing is the correct policy. Then hold a gun to the debt ratings agencies to confirm that thought when they don't follow debt increase with normal ratings downgrade. Next continue the political posturing battle between L & R, as each side plays to their base, and gives their small minded followers assurance that someone is fighting the good battle for them. Continue to use the media to repeat endlessly falsehoods as fact. Add to this mix manipulated markets that would normally signal problems and you have the deception complete. What is going to happen before the end of March is the print is going to increase. I'm thinking spending programs to rapidly fill the gap when the ceiling is lifted. They may actually eliminate the ceiling. This suppression is a tool to aid in the deception. Whether paper price finally snaps higher or is held down as physical flies is irrelevant. The bottom line is that THEY MUST CONTINUE TO PRINT! AS SURE AS THE SUN RISES IN THE MORNING.......QE TO INFINITY IS CUT IN STONE. This is why physical metal is being rapidly drained from the system. This is why that drain of REAL money will continue. IT MUST. Minutes convey "hesitance" to continue..........they KNOW what happens if they stop.......so we get more BS talk to control markets is all that was released. The bag of tricks does have a bottom......Bennie sees it now......he continues to look in the bag for something to appear.........and prints.

Silver Danny · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:49pm

Really?

Really?

· Feb 20, 2013 - 2:49pm

Could any of our Futures Traders...

Let us know what your platform is saying in terms of # contracts per hour or volume flow on the FOMC announcement? It sure looks like there was a HELL of alot of exchange, while price just hovered around 28.40 to 28.60... as in, epic volume but little price movement. 

It looked like smart $ covering profitable shorts in a huge way while dumb $ was scared by the headline and sold... but I would love to hear what you just saw on your pro feeds.

Pegasus · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:50pm
fast mover · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:50pm

Junk silver is moving

There is a run on 90% silver...APMEX, Provident, BD...it's all drying up

TheYeomanFarmer fast mover · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:53pm

Junk Silver moving?

Either that, or the vendors are pulling it back and are unwilling to sell at these prices.

Stock_Canines · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:55pm

At What Price

Did Turd say he would eat his hat - 22 silver? Will that be presented in a podcast format?

RationalMind · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:55pm

Bart Chilton, CFTC says 'it's specs who are moving markets'.

If Bart can make this assessment for a 44 cents (13% move) in pump prices over a month, it's a no brainer for him to extend this assessment to the PM markets. Right?

WASHINGTON — Gasoline prices are soaring again and eating away at the purchasing power of ordinary Americans. And again, financial speculators appear to be a big part of the story.

The national average pump price hit $3.74 for a gallon of unleaded gasoline Tuesday, up 44 cents per gallon from just a month ago, according to the AAA’s Fuel Gauge Report. In the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett area, it was $3.73, according to AAA — up 30 cents from a month ago.

“It’s the 33rd day in a row that we’ve seen a consecutive increase” nationally in gasoline prices, said Nancy White, a spokeswoman for AAA, who said there are several explanations but that none seem too convincing.

Rising gasoline prices act like a tax on consumers, harming the economy by whittling away at the amount of money the consumer can spend on other things. Gas expenditures as a percentage of U.S. household income hit three-decade highs in 2012, and the recent spike suggests 2013 might not be much better.

It’s not all supply-and-demand.

The rising gasoline prices come even as the United States now produces more than half the oil it consumes. In fact, the nearly 800,000 barrel-per-day increase in U.S. production output from 2011 to 2012 reflected the largest one-year jump since oil drilling began in 1859.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. oil production will rise from 6.89 million barrels per day in November 2012 to 8.15 million by December 2014. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has lowered its estimates for global demand for oil. OPEC, the oil-exporters cartel, has reduced production.

It all argues for lower oil prices, or at least less volatility in the prices.

Enter financial speculation. Commercial users of oil such as airlines and trucking companies that once dominated 70 percent of the market for future deliveries of oil now represent just 30 percent. Noncommercial financial speculators dominate 70 percent of the market.

A speculator is loosely defined as anyone who invests in something simply to profit off fluctuations in its market value.

With oil, the trading is dominated by Wall Street banks, hedge funds, pension funds and other financial institutions that buy and sell contracts for oil barrels without any intention of taking delivery of the oil.

“It’s speculators who are moving markets,” said Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “They are almost exclusively the entire market at certain periods of time.”

Chilton led the charge in seeking limits that reduced how much of the market for crude oil any single trader or company could control. That effort is bogged down in the courts.

“The more textured view would show you that at certain times it is not a question to whether or not speculators are moving the market. Speculators are the market,” he said.

Regulators and other trade groups also say speculators’ presence is felt at the pump.

Speculators buy gasoline contracts, and trade groups say that petroleum refiners watch the swings in contracts when setting their prices, often boosting wholesale prices quickly in response.

A jump in wholesale prices may not immediately affect pump prices, but it eventually forces gas-station owners to raise prices too, according to the Petroleum Marketers Association of America.

And in Washington state, it’s possible that action by lawmakers may eventually drive pump prices higher.

House Transportation Committee Chair Judy Clibborn says she will seek a 10-cent-per-gallon increase to the state’s gas tax, part of a broader transportation revenue package that the Mercer Island lawmaker and several of her Democratic colleagues plan to unveil Wednesday.

Other forces are at work in the overall picture, with some analysts citing world events and others pointing to supply and demand.

“Oil prices are inflated by concern about potential oil supply disruption. All I have to do is watch TV for five minutes,” said Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst with Oppenheimer. He listed tension between the United States, Israel and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program; the civil war in Syria; and factional violence in such oil-exporting nations as Libya and Iraq.

Meanwhile, nearly 1 million barrels a day of capacity has been turned off, with eight refinery closures or announced closures on the East Coast and the Caribbean over the past year.

“What the market is really pricing in is potentially a new era of tighter gasoline supplies that are heavily reliant on imports,” said John Kilduff, a partner in the energy trading firm Again Capital. “We might not ever turn back from these high prices. This isn’t episodic.”

The Associated Press and The Washington Post contributed.

Beastly Stack · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:55pm

@Bollocks

Santa is not shitting, I can say that with the utmost certainty!

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/02/be-strong-be-smarter.html

winemaker · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:58pm

TITS index?

Any idea where we are on the TITS index?

My guess is that it has sagged to near alltime lows.

agNau · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:59pm

General Mills =

"Cyber Warrior for Obama Project" Could be.......timing is interesting with attacks on multiple sites. https://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/52923

AlexCojones · Feb 20, 2013 - 2:59pm

Not Until Gold & Silver Get Really Tight Supply

Not until we really see tight supplies of gold and silver everywhere, will we finally see things perking up. I can only offer this illustration, since I'm not a chart guy. And Yes, copper will follow her sister metals. Alex

Beastly Stack · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:00pm

Silver

I must say is holding up pretty well. The thing that sucks is, what are they going to do on the Asia open in Globex?

CaribSurfKing · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:01pm

25% drop since QE 3 in Sep 2012

6 months later, we are down 25% in Silver

Who would have thunk it!

Here comes low $20's

PM investors lost, its that simple, sheep won!

kingboo · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:02pm

@Stock Canines......i hear ya...

but here's the deal........ only the insiders will see a crash coming, and last time i checked i wasn't in the club. So no one knows the catalyst......but there are more potential catalysts than ever before...... and where stocks can go to zero, and where currencies can and might go to zero, historically gold and silver never have.........so it really is about just trying to protect assets in an environment where there really is no protection. I have no clue what they have up their sleeve, but it will have to be one hell of a jedi-mind-fuck to convince the world that gold and silver are worth nothing........ 

· Feb 20, 2013 - 3:02pm

Wow

Pretty incredible.

Apparently, The Fed will not only be ending QE tomorrow, they're going to be clawing back all that they've done since November. Over the top silly.

And yes I will make a video of me eating my hat at $22

Grublux · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:05pm

Starting to remind me of the

08 smash. The physical premiums should start to rise soon. Then there will be none to be had, at least for a while. Those who were trying to buy during that drop should remember...

I know I couldn't find anything close to "spot"

I also wonder what the effects will be on the broad market. Silver crashed first the last time around.

AlexCojones · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:05pm

Brilliant Succint Remark from Mr Lennon to Mr. Hendrix

Saw this comment yesterday at ZH.

Maybe these old Rockers are members here under different names?

Mr Lennon Hendrix

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When we look at silver day to day, it is hard for anyone trading it to not get sick when they buy above the short term range. However, for those of us that stack, we understand we want to accumulate as many ounces as possible. That means we set targets, buy, accumulate cash, and go in again when the time is right (month to month, or week to week).

But does any of it really matter when the GSR is stretched out above 50? Does it matter when the Central Banks are monetizing debt by trillions every year and they are balancing their books by also stacking gold sky high? Does it matter when the other investment options are dead housing, topped out bonds, or the den of thieves that are corporate equity?

In the long run, buying at 29 or 28 will not matter. What matters is that eventually gold and silver will once again be used for the purpose we gave it long ago - it will be used as money.

Buy Silver!

Bollocks · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:06pm

@Beastly Stack

I meant in relation to his short-term prediction. He's got just 5 weeks.

Long-term he's dead right. No shitting there.

thedukes Basil · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:07pm

reply to basil

"Well one of Sinclair's greatest blunders of all is the $1650 fiasco which are amazingly quoting as one of his "great calls" !!?? How can you possibly say that ??

If you have been following sinclair since 2003 , surely you are aware that he made an outrageous $1,000,000 bet that Gold would be over $1650 by January 2011. In reality, Gold had only just scraped past $1400 by Jan 2011 !! You can't get much more wrong than that !"

How many individuals took him on that $1,000,000 bet. Nobody!!! Wow just wow. A call made 10 years ago and he is off by 5% August 2011. Give me a break. He hit the year perfectly. How many others made that kind of a call back in 2001. Absolutely nobody.

To say he missed the call from 10 years ago by a couple of months is just ignorant!!!!

Chef · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:09pm

parallel bars

The Pink Panther Strikes Again parallel bars
Chef · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:09pm

parallel bars

The Pink Panther Strikes Again parallel bars
murphy · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:09pm
lickspitler · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:10pm

don't panic

the market is obviously still long and wrong. if 1522 and 25.90 don't hold these things will shit a giant brick, it will make Jpm's action look like nothing. if they had blogs 400 years ago this would be a tulip bulb blog. what i love about it is if your a bear you're considered a troll.

stack this bitchez good luck with 1520

Beastly Stack · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:12pm

@Bollocks

Cheers my friend!

CaribSurfKing · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:15pm

Sprott's PHYS about to go negative on premium

Unreal!

PSLV soon to follow

Looks like Gold will be geading for the low 1000's, Silver to the teens I reckon. Fed to stop QE, DOW is about to collapse

2008 here we come!

NonoverlappingMagicCereal Pegasus · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:16pm

@Pegasus

When I first posted in this thread I had been a member for 3 minutes - I'm a bona fide veteran by now.

zman · Feb 20, 2013 - 3:16pm

So much for trying to protect

So much for trying to protect ourselves from QE, stocks have been the correct way to play QE.

Now if the stock market tanks, it seems like it will bring gold and silver down with it in the short term.

What's going to make investors go into gold and silver? There is nothing there, no reported inflation, no fear of QE, bonds are safer (in most investors minds), stocks offer better upside.

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