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Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  548 Comments

reefman · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:17pm

Gold and Silver COMEX expiration dates:

Groaner · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:18pm

the corruption in the metals markets, not to worry, but first he has a massage..

Do you have for me the 'massage'?
musicmaker99 ForWhomTheTollBuilds · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:19pm

Sorry, Comex registered is 38MM ozt.

TJeffson · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:21pm

I think a lot of the drop in price is people piling into stocks. People want to ride the wave to all time new highs... so they aren't touching gold or silver. I'm not a trader by any means but just something I've noticed a bit lately.

SRSrocco · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:24pm

IVARS... one of the things that I know about a great deal is ENERGY. There has been this big effort to BAMBOOZLE the world and investors about the "WONDERS OF SHALE ENERGY." Because the United States holds a larger percentage of shale reserves compared to the rest of the world, there is this notion that the U.S. will become energy independent.

Thus, this would mean that we would import less oil and that could help our trade deficit as well as our USG debt situtation. Even though this sells subscriptions and allows investors to dump their hard earned money into these so-called ENERGY ASSETS... the great energy stock implosion is coming. 

There is no LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL for the USA as it pertains to energy. So, in that regard, the notion that the U.S. debt situation will improve from here... is COMPLETE BS.

The falling EROI is destroying SH*T everywhere -- basically it turns assets to liabities, and liabilites into huge problems.

The IQ's in the ANALYST community has sunken to all time lows. 

Thus:

AS ANALYSTS' IQ's FALL = RISE IN GOLD & SILVER VALUES

ivars · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:26pm

Gold is hitting critical point today. It may move up next days if and longer if it does not fall throught this support. 

However, there is nothing to indicate that that would mean an end to downtrend channel working since October. There are no gold positive news out those days, as Dr. G has pointed out many times. And that is quite opposite the situation that was there especially in autumn 2010, but also in summer 2012. There is instead, an uncertainty of what arsenal will the USA, financial capital  and CBs deploy to stabilize the USG debt based monetary system- as that is the only system there is , and large creditors like China etc would much more happily continue building its power on a stable currency basis than call it quits prematurely, still much to weak to contest the military power of the West and giving up accumulated wealth measurable in trillions of USD. 

Slick · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:28pm
Mickey · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:31pm

and if you think about it, how desperate is the condition of the entire system when metals, bonds and stocks get manipulated like this. We have no recovery. You have to be looney to buy stocks with high pe ratios when they are tellign us the economy is slowing and the only issue holding stocks up is printing-the same printing thats not helping PM.

my mothers keeper brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:32pm

i don't know what the article means (shrugging shoulders)...

but when i read this:

Dr Jin said the world was moving to a “1+4” system, with the greenback serving as the anchor of global payments, supplemented by “four smaller reserve currencies” – the euro, sterling, yen and yuan.

“Compared with the euro area, the dollar zone has much greater resilience to shocks. The debt crisis in the euro area has demonstrated the structural weakness of this currency,” he wrote in a paper for the February bulletin of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

it reminded me of a movie i saw where an old woman, living in a shack in the forest, held a small goat on her lap. she stroked it's fur while speaking to it softly in a low voice as she cut its throat with a very sharp knife. it never felt a thing as it bled out. litf

meegoreng1 · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:34pm

Sold some SLW to get that.

Place where I bought it from told me that a prominent buyer (Silver analyst, not able to name him) also stepped up and bought a lot from my source too.

Also have more powder and and gold silver stocks to unload if and when prices keep going down. It is still possible because of expiry dates next Monday.

Also ignore anyone, incl. Turd and KWNers that keeps telling you that there is a HEH moment coming soon. This is a a long term war not a short term battle.

Remember, the ONLY reason PMs are down is there is a lot of money to be made for the EE going against the Specs . Until they capitulate, this is gonna continue. Only the strong survives this war (like it did in 1979 before the surge). Don't place your hope on a "HEH moment the next 6 weeks" kind of call as you too will start losing hope and not survive.

Keep strong. If not able to, then turn off your computer and take a break!

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:35pm

Fwiw...I'm considering either $40-50 calls in Jan. 2014 for SLW or August 2013 EXK $7.50 calls.

thedukes · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:36pm

Santa has it nailed and these are most likely the battle lines about to be defended.

Nov 23 1757.90 A point

Jan 4 1627.90 B point equals 130 point swing

Jan 17 1699 C point

Feb 15 breaks the B point with increased volumes

Feb 19 continues pushing with volume

C to D point 1699-130 = 1569 1:1 or

1699-180= 1519 1:1382

1699-210= 1489 1:1618

A big thank you to both Santa and Argentus for bringing together a time frame that appears to be right on target for a major pm bottom.

Stock_Canines · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:39pm

Now, the message from Turd is trust Santa. HEH this summer/fall was a failure. 2013 is off to an awful start in what is typically the strongest time of the year for the metals. Are we the ones growing desperate or is it the cartel?

Larry · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:40pm

When you are an investor in an asset that the Empire you are subjected to covets. There will be emotional pain in watching and holding and financial pain or destruction if you sell, depending on your circumstance. When you are a large entity or a small nation with gold and resources, those two pains would be welcomed over what brutality is in store for them if they don't buckle and bow to the Empire. Look at how many times we've seen that in just the last two years! 

The US-Britain-Western Empire could not care less about small stackers of gold and silver. Their local governments have ways and means of taxing, reducing or removing assets from certain weak minded investors. This is a battle between nations and large entities. The vultures of all shapes and sizes have flocked in and perch on the wagons of the Empire campaign of destruction and they will continue to break every law with impunity simply because they are on the side of the ravenous Beast. That beast is now desperate, and wants to debunk the value of pm's to support their Ponzi. For now, any party that aids and abets that effort will be immune from prosecution. 

The G-20 resolved nothing except throw another complexity of lies around the big table. The currency war rages and is focused on gold, and to a lesser extent, silver. The Empire has squandered their gold, leased it out and thrown it away to prop their fiat paper and they will stop at nothing to lie, cheat, steal and kill to take it back before their scheme burns and an international reset of currencies occurs.

It is so sad and increasingly evident that all of this wickedness will lead to widespread destruction and war. This is historic in scope and scale. It may wind up being much more than what we perceive it to be. The level of evil today is remarkable... perhaps biblical. 

On a side note, particularly on a day like this, it comes as no surprise that the minimally paid anti-pm minions, the sadistic psychopaths and pathetic ones will crawl out from under the baseboards to taunt and to try and add misery to our blog host and to the denizens here. Seeing this over the course of time, it's obvious that despair, pain and misery is all they seem to know. They wallow in it, and seem to take some dark pleasure in ridiculing people who have much of their life savings or retirement funds invested in assets that are being attacked. There is a steep price to pay for that behavior. They will not be judged by a jury of their peers, nor by the government that sanctions the same behavior. Sad, really.

It only titillates (or pays) them to be rebuffed or called by name. Personally, them showing up in numbers gives me optimism of a bottom, which is the opposite effect they seek, being bottom dwellers as they are. If I do give them a fleeting moment of thought, I'll just refer to them only as cockroaches. The name 'Troll' is above them and what they do.

Back to my thoughts on this fine day: During times like this it is almost impossible to be happy if you hold a stake in miners or even a stack of physical. Never pleasant to see the kind of blatant wickedness we see. But I for one am staying put. Nothing will be sold to the thieves. If I lose my investments, it will be because I have been robbed, not wrong.

My hope for justice does not rely on any individual... no man, no politician, no financial entity, no government of any nation. None of them will do what needs to be done nor will they do what is right and fair. My investment outcome relies on reaching the tipping point of supply and demand. Whether that is due to an international reset or a massive revaluation, I have no idea. It could also occur with a war or major catastrophic event. God, I hope that is not the case, but it sure seems we're headed there. 

In the meantime, while there is so much smoke in the air and gnashing of teeth, I'm off to the LCS. I haven't bought this cheap in ages. Hey, you gotta roll with the punches :)

ivars · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:42pm

It may be true...If EROI is below one, the only sense of digging energy out is if we get energy with lower entropy (higher quality) by utilizing energy of higher entropy. That may not be true.

As long as EROI is >1 it makes sense in some sense at least, if just to improve balance of payments. The gas glut in the USA has made the price so low that gas based chemical industry is being rebuilt in the USA and is completely pushing out any other competitor on the market by incredibly low (1/3) cost of basic chemicals it makes.

So short term this definitely may become a calculation in investor minds that works against rapid increase in the price of PMs, and that is enough to prolong nd deepen the correction we have been seeing for 2 years almost now. I would not claim and of bull market now by now means, just cautioning that there are facts and propaganda out that affect real business decisions which in turn affect prices of PMs.

What I am saying is just do not dismiss the investor ( not analyst) thinking over these items as they decide the price of gold. They vote with money. 

And please do not feed me the conspiracy/manipulation stuff. That is taking place in every possible moment, but surely the best possible moments to manipulate PMS down are when buying itself is uncertain and not fully committed. E.g. China itself would like to have more gold at right price however without overkill that can destroy the value of their USD denominated ( and other fiat ) holdings. So if they see there might be a hesitancy in the market, which is obviously there, they would not be the ones to rush the gold prices up if they were not certain its the last moment to do it.

And that is obviously a point where we are now. Just that.

Till summer I have stopped for bottom looking. Only if there is both real macro things that inevitably drives the debt increase faster and proved trend that PMs are moving with it, I will go long .

As to paper price vs physical theory..that is another BS i do not like to be fed. 

SV · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:45pm
Basil thedukes · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:51pm

Santa has nothing "nailed". Santa has never had anything "nailed".

I have been following Sinclair for many years, and his predictions are just as often wrong as right. That is the simple truth of the matter. It's probably not what most people want to hear on this board, so most people here will simply refuse to believe it.

ReachWest · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:51pm

The sincere concern for the financial well-being of Turdites coming from our new member NonoverlappingMagicCereal is truly astounding and frankly, touching.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal wrote:
Macroeconomics is very tough, perhaps impossible to predict. I know you guys see the bogeyman in all this stuff, but I hate to see so many people with their eggs in one basket.
NonoverlappingMagicCereal wrote:
I don't care to discuss my point of view because I don't have a point of view to defend.

I think Turdville knows full well the difficulty predicting anything. And - it does appear that there NonOverlapping does have a point of view. He/She just does not wish to discuss it in any detail.

Anyway - I may go and sell all my physical PM later today. I have been 'oh' so wrong, for 'oh' so long. It only took a couple of posts from this thoughtful new member to convince me. I'm going to buy eggs and put them all into my one basket.

kingboo · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:54pm

from you comment: "And look, I know you have all sorts of reasons for why that inflation number is wrong"

I do.........It's called a fucking grocery store! And since you've "heard it all before" i figured i would point out a place where you can go "see it" instead.

you may not think you're transparent.....but you are. I have windshields that are more difficult to see through than you.....(as if you actually had anyone in Turdville's best interest at heart...after 10 minutes here....yeah, o.k..)

Here's the thing you might need some help with; people don't come here to get swayed out of metals.......they come here because they ALREADY believe the system is going to shit and together we are looking for support in numbers....and solutions...... you want to call it a cult? Go for it...... herd mentality?... whatever. You see our convictions run deeper than a quick "drive-by-spooking" during a washout.......

So save it for the amateurs in the Kitco forums.....

zman · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:56pm

DHP, I wouldn't mess with those calls options, the boys are not done with the "shares" by any means, they are not messing around, I would just sit tight.

Xeno · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:56pm

Good words in that Got Gold report posted a few pages back.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170195#comment-170195

Wonder if anyone actually read it yet.

ClinkinKY Basil · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:57pm

...I'm going with "my gut". Simple as that. Keep stackin', but leave room for "other eggs in your basket".

Not that difficult really.wink

ancientmoney ivars · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:57pm

"As to paper price vs physical theory..that is another BS i do not like to be fed."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is your theory, then, that physical and paper will continue to trade together for the foreseeable future? If you do, then you do not believe that gold will return as a monetary asset to officially back currencies. 

Can you elaborate on your theory? I respect your opinion, and mine is that paper trading will be halted at/or around the same time as PMs come back as a monetary backing.

SRSrocco · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:58pm

IVARS... I would imagine we are on the same page as it pertains to the ultimate value of gold and silver. However, I believe we differ on the details in between. I don't normally like to get into a TIT FOR TAT sort of debate... but sometimes its good so others can see the information and make up their own minds.

About "Feeding you Conspiracy or Manipulation", I don't believe I addressed that in my post directed towards you. But, now that you brought it up, a person would have to be BRAIN-DEAD not to realize that 'IF THEY COULD MANIPULATE THE LIBOR RATE"... well then anything is possible? Or maybe I am just FOS on that one.

Furthermore, I am not apart of the crowd that YELLS RAID every time there is a sell-off. To me, the manipulation is done by the use of massive DERIVATIVES, by Interest Rate Swaps and Credit Default. This is the real manipulation. 

CONCERNING HOW THE MARKET VALUES STOCKS OR SECTORS

This is also complete BS. How well did investors get the market value of the TECH BUBBLE? Or how about the MORTGAGE BUBBLE? The reason why I say there will be an Energy Stock Implosion is due to the false valuations of RESERVES. Chevron in 2010 only added 1/4 quarter of the oil it produced that year.

Why on earth do you think the MAJOR OIL companies are BUYING BACK THEIR STOCK??? Why not find more oil instead...lol???

Anyhow, the idea that the MARKET CORRECTLY VALUES stocks and sectors in my book is complete BS and GARBAGE. Why? They have proven many times how wrong in the end they got it.

Now, if you are talking about superficial gains in trading trends based on BS, well then you may have something there.

Again, you and I are on the same page as it pertains to GOLD & SILVER. We just differ on the trading mentality of the NITWITS who think they know what the hell they are doing.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:58pm

Do you have anything in repertoire other than whining? You are so fucking annoying. Sell your gold and silver if you have any and go somewhere else. I think you confused PM's with P.M.S.

agrock · Feb 20, 2013 - 12:58pm

he's dropped the before his birthday several times over the last few months.

What is shaking before 3/27 to get the AU bull on the loose?

Mickey · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:00pm

is we know these moves happen.

My most successful positons havebeen specialized reits and the piplelines-they have appreciated and pay a nice tax deferred distribution.

But I still have huge concerns of how this all plays out. We have just to damn much debt and muc of that is to the people-

So I am beginning to think the game will be true default-tell the public to go pound sand.

Of course it kills whats left of economy when people will not have money to spend and is the 18 of what Obama is pushing right now which is 180 from what he was saying leading up to the 2008 election--ie fiscal responsibility.

How things change when you are in office.

Gold and silver=physical form-is still comforting to have in that its real. The issue here is while metals are selloing the stock market is running up. With a crappy economy.

Wizard · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:04pm

SELL, SELL, SELL, HURRY RUN OUT AND SELL ALL YOU HAVE!!!!!!!!!

SELL ALL OF YOUR FIAT FOR REAL MONEY, SILVER AND GOLD!!!!

Oops, I didn't do that right did I?

Sorry I didn't say I was a good at being a troll..........

W

Basil ClinkinKY · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:04pm

Probably just as well to trust your own instincts as much as anything you read, or anyone else's opinion.

Is you gut telling you anything about the Fed minutes at 2pm ? It's often an excuse to beat down the metals, but maybe this time it will be different. My own instincts are telling me absolutely nothing about this. That may sound like a cop-out, but in reality it's just a simple statement of fact.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ReachWest · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:04pm

It seems like the fundamental disconnect between me and the folks here is that I don't think you can know any of this stuff for sure. You bothered quoting me, but did you read anything other than the quoted text? I did not say that anyone here is wrong about any particular point, I merely suggested the possibility. Why is that so misguided or malevolent? The degree of emotion that this suggestion elicits, I think, is pretty revealing.

Anyway, of course I have a point of view, but not in the sense of most people here. I don't have any hard predictions about the future, and believe it is hubristic to do so. I have lots of opinions about lots of other matters, but when it comes to the global economy and commodity prices, it is simply not possible to make the prognostications that are regularly made here with any degree of certainty.

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