Cutting Vacation Short

Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest:

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have:

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 20, 2013 - 11:50am

Santa has been all over this

Here's his latest:

February 20, 2013, at 10:15 am by

My Dear Extended Family,

The pressure on gold is not permanent in any sense. This decline is, as I have told you, similar to the series of declines just before gold took off in the 70s from $400 to $887.50. Those declines then were for the purpose of the last great shake of the gold apple tree prior to the move that gained the most distance over the least amount of time.

My birthday is March 27th. By that time this decline in gold will be old history. This decline is purely to take your positions away from you, certainly in shares which today trade at historic discounts to their assets.

I can only suggest to you as strongly as possible that you need to defend yourself by doing absolutely nothing. This way you can get into the fight and prevent the shorts from taking their profits that are soon to become losses.

The biggest profits the shorts have is in your shares. As long as your company is performing well on the ground do not let the shorts have any joy. This may be the last time before gold trades in excess of $3500 that you need bite the bullet of emotional restraint.



Since he's been correct in calling this smash for the past two weeks, don't you think you should respect his call for an almost immediate rebound, too?

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:51am

Thanks Prize Fighter

That's as good a support as any I've heard so far.

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:52am

Sequestration MOPE

Management of Perception is a tactic of war, and a very effective one when done right.

Of course we know Sequestration is BS, So do the people implementing it. But the sheeple do not and they will make judgments and decisions on their actions with their fiat currency according to what they are spoon fed. These actions will have real consequences in the market, for awhile. Who knows how long. A day,A week, A Month. It is of no matter except to the people brave enough to play in the paper market, or to those with weak hands and weak convictions. In the end it always boils down to one unarguable and indisputable fact of history.

No Purely Fiat Currency in the History of Mankind has Ever Survived........Ever

For an absolutely monumental example of Management Of Perception. Take a little time and look up the dis-information campaign leading up to the invasion of Normandy. So effective it was, that an entire nation at war (Germany)placed her troops and tank corps in the completely wrong place and ended costing them not only the country being invaded. But giving her enemy (The U.S and Britain) a foot hold to invade Germany and end the war.

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:52am

Just picked this up....

I like the one that perches on a power line to recharge. Read about mosquito sized weeks ago. Dark times.

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:54am

I'm reading all the same

I'm reading all the same comments when silver was falling of the cliff from 50. same for the past 2 years. this. ... is... a... recording

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:55am

The Devil shall tempt thee

Yeah tho I walk through the valley of fiat death, I shall fear no evil

Thy Gold and Silver comfort me.

I suspect this is needed to cause the squeeze on phyz supply which will then drive the much needed stake through the heart of the paper market.

The truth always comes out in the end.

Rejoice! The end is nigh!


Feb 20, 2013 - 11:55am

What are the chances

What are the chances that the last day in February is the complete opposite in the precious metals sector compared to last year at this time. Last year the silver price hit the high for the entire year on February 29th at 37.43 and gold was hitting 1790.30. With the exception of gold which traded up to the 1795 level in October, the last day in February marked the high water price essentially for both gold and silver. Now what are the chances that both PM's mark the low for the entire 2013 calendar year on February 28th and it's hi ho gold and silver from that date onward.

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:55am


I don't care to discuss my point of view because I don't have a point of view to defend. I do not argue why you folks are wrong, only that it is conceivable that you are. That's all, that's why I advise caution.

As far as everything else - I would include in the bundle of 'theories' that might be wrong conspiracies regarding CPI calculation at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Inflation since 2000 has supposedly totaled 33%, which would yield a gold price around $400.

And look, I know you have all sorts of reasons for why that inflation number is wrong, or why more significant inflation is guaranteed to be on the way, please don't waste your breath on me (trust me, I've heard it all before!). All I ask is that you guys at least consider the possibility that you are wrong, and have a plan for that possible future.

Feb 20, 2013 - 11:56am

Load The Boat Time

I sure want to but I've already lost ten boats due to those accidents at sea. Boats are getting fucking expensive.

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:01pm

Since he's been correct in

Since he's been correct in calling this smash for the past two weeks, don't you think you should respect his call for an almost immediate rebound, too?

No, not at all. Those two things are in no way related.

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:02pm


OK, I won't waste any more breath on you. Thank you for doing that math for me. Cheers!

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:02pm


Thank you sir :)

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:03pm

Don't forget - March is a delivery month

March is the first delivery month for Ag since Dec, a fact that seems not to have been mentioned on this board for a while. Currently ~50k contracts open, that's 250MM ozt against 63MM ozt available in Comex registered. Let's see how that pans out over the next week.

During the last delivery month (Dec) open interest actually increased as the month progressed - something Harvey said he had never seen before. If you haven't seen this before, read it now:

Harvey interviewed by The Doc in December. The transcript of the interview below the audio is astonishing. He says silver manipulation should be resolved by end of March. Kinda what Turd and Jim have been saying too.

Nice to see Au bounce of 1580 as Turd suggested it might. Let's see if that holds.

I'm *very* tempted to pick up a few more kg of Ag at BV today. I already have over my body weight and now gunning for triple digit kgs. I really need another month for that, but I don't think I'm going to get it.

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:03pm

MCD and WMT and AAPL and Cat

Apple joined in earlier today when Foxconn announced slowdown in iphones and CAT reported its slowdown. This has to be terrible for employment and consequently tax receipts.

Not mentioned here yet either.

so, is Fed going to throw in towel and let economy and market collapse right now? (although the eay things have been going if the economy gets any worse we see Dow 16k soon)

Oh yes, KRFT was a little light in sales too

Dr G thedukes
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:03pm

Last year the silver price

Last year the silver price hit the high for the entire year on February 29th at 37.43

...and then was immediately smashed for $3+, followed by a 4-month smash that took it another $7 lower. Anybody correlating this year with last year should probably be crapping themselves right now.

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:05pm


Why do you care about us so much?

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:06pm

we are not wrong

arithmetic demands it.

i guess u never heard of BUD Kress or Kondratieff.

i'm shorting civilization at this juncture.

the west+japan has maxed out the credit cards with no end in sight.

i suppose u think the fed can stop printing money.

they cannot.

the trolls will soon be but a speck in sinclair's review mirror.

El Gordo
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:09pm

Picking bottoms

Has anyone started picking bottoms yet? I decided to pick my bottom a few minutes ago and pulled out a tube of brand spanking new 2013 ASE's. Hope my bottom picking is over, but if there are more bottoms to be picked, I'll probably be watching.

ivars brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:10pm

Instead, I suggest to think

Instead, I suggest to think about it as that is how investors may start feeling and that of course impacts PM price. Things are not static, there are arguments coming into play that have to be taken into account. USG treasury standard has been based on USG debt for last 42 years, and if there is any scenario that can improve the debt situation totally or vs. GDP that will impact PM prices negatively. Any asset USG can show, be it military or local gas/oil that could reduce its debt accumulation speed will stabilize the USA situation. Anything in the other direction will worsen it. At the moment things are uncertain as its not quite clear what arsenal of strategies the USA will use, apart from ones mentioned in the article. Of course China as biggest creditor is NOT interested in USD collapse, so anything that buys time for them to develop their economical and military might under the stable USD cover is good for them. They are not ready to take over, and will not be anytime soon. When world will accept Chinese debt instead of USG, than yes:)

On other hand, there has not been the spike in gold that would have signaled the end of bull cycle, so presumably, the investors have not figure out yet what direction is more likely.

Hence the protraction in the current correction to Gold and Silver prices, ongoing for silver since May 2011.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds musicmaker99
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:10pm

Don't forget - March is a delivery month

I remember when I read that news thinking that if there is a pattern of beating down the gold/silver prices to discourage delivery, then logically the largest ever number of contracts standing for delivery must lead to the largest ever beatdown.

I considered selling.

Then I thought of all the times this has happened and how one day it won't happen the same way and by the time I get back in it will be too late.

Sit tight. Be right.

Galearis Dr G
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:10pm

@ Dr. G.

I have been saying for months that this may be end game. The banksters know what is ahead - a potential runaway market in paper - and for all we know the hypothecation efforts are not keeping up with delivery obligations out of London.... But massive and daily interventions of this scale do imply panic. And once the crooks start this level of control, they have to keep it up....

What I have been calling their "Big Experiment". That they intend to keep doing this to keep the price down below the 200 dma implies that either they do have delivery problems already or some sort of decision was made to sacrifice the physical at this rate for the tranquil scene it shows to the public. That they are trying to REALLY intimidate buyers of paper metal is a given....So they can either do this minute to minute market rigging successfully until the factories start closing (i.e. ipad, Mercedes Benz), OR the paper buyers overcome the blizzard of naked sales I see happening in the months ahead. Or they continue to leave the arena. Whereupon the price of paper metal CONtinues to be sold at a discount.....One has to admire the genius of these people who are able to still win as the market itself expresses its own decline with that falling price profile...Sheeeshhhh!

Ok, I'm a walking, typing contrarian symbol, but surely that is their game plan...Whether they are successful or not is still a question in my mind. Keep in mind that the system can rig markets almost indefinitely with derivatives, that this is why they were invented. If you don't believe that markets can be controlled indefinitely then you don't understand that silver has been rigged for over 60 years now, and we are NOW watching why rigging of markets comes to an end eventually: BECAUSE THEY RUN OUT OF THE PHYSICAL COMMODITY. I suspect that IF this is the END GAME, they may be prepared to shut down the paper markets and use that cash out the shorts (JPM et al) plan.

As usual, I hope I am wrong.



NonoverlappingMagicCereal opalboy
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:11pm


Honestly, I don't care too much about folks that are just speculating - particularly the ones that are being rude to me here :)

However, I do care about folks that are stacking with every penny they have, and some that they don't. You know the ones I'm talking about, and I think sites like this enable them to get in to really bad situations. I read this site because I find the viewpoint fascinating (though personally unpersuasive), and I figure while I'm here I might as well be a voice of moderation.

Woody Mornings
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:11pm

What's that beeping?

Truck Back Up Beeping
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:11pm

Provident out of Junk..........

except for Franklin Halves.

So now the $64,000 question is are they out? Or just not willing to sell at these prices?

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:13pm


Welcome aboard to you also

Lots of newbs is a good sign and keeps it fresh.

The one thing I've come to realize is that many folks are in different stages of their awakening and awareness of many things even if its their first post. And while some of their questions and observations might seem challenging (especially on down days) that its important to recognize how our views or emotions have changed over time and how we felt during certain smack downs or radical price spikes.

Days like today leave me optimistic overall in the long view of things. Volatile action like this is what will drive an equal and opposite reaction that exceeds this period of stagnant consolidation. We will retest $1900 and we will hit $2000+ at some point.

Keep that mind whether your a newb, 'tweener or old timer. Today means nothing at all because we will retest and exceed those levels. Just not today.

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:13pm
Exbroker Dr G
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:15pm

The fundamentals

Hey Doc. I can tell you this for certain. It can't go to zero. What is happening here is the shit is hitting the fan in Washington. The entire place has a case of ADD. I just can't figure out what this thing is going to look like in April. We have allot of baby boomers retiring very soon. I'm one of them. Actually in August. Our money is not there. I just put in my order for 100 million 40 cal hollow points. I got the Govt discount. Twice the price a reasonable man would get in a free market. I will be selling those rounds on the Comex. I'll probably have a very large short position most of the time. I have some good advisors on my position. Some seasoned pro's who are looking to kill some time. Right now I have a contract with Berny Madoff and Michael Milken. If you can think of any other finance geniuses', give me a jingle. You can get ahold with me at www.

Have a nice day. I'm looking forward to your responce.

Best Regards,

Ex Broker

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:15pm

Blythe is in the black hood

And kevin bacon represents Turdville

Kevin Bacon - Fraternity Paddle
Stack'em High
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:16pm

Ignore user feature...

Any way to keep it from reloading back to the first page?

I've lost my damn spot about 15 times over the last couple of days...

Feb 20, 2013 - 12:17pm

Another data point.

But then, a bowl of hot chow mein, can warm the tummie on a cold day like today.

if you look at the bowl formation, of the handle, to the 31 year silver cup,

a symmetrically down draft would be TODAY at 28.50, for the data point on the bowl lower bound.

DRAW THE LINE IN THE SAND, silver bulls, right here, right now!!


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