Wallowing In The Mire

126
Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - 9:31am

What the true proverb says has happened to them: “The dog returns to its own vomit, and the sow, after washing herself, returns to wallow in the mire.” 2 Peter 2:22

Ole Turd ain't much of a biblical scholar but I'm pretty sure Saint Peter wasn't prophesying about the decline of the U.S. dollar when he wrote this. But...

Ole Pigatha sure is living up (down) to her name today. We are getting very close to a test of the lows from back in early May. IF those lows fail, the Pig will rapidly decline toward critical and final support around 72. If you're wondering, the all-time, spot low is 70.81, found back in March of 2008. Not coincidentally, this was when gold was breaking the $1000 level for the first time. If it heads back there again soon, and it looks like it might, it will likely correlate with gold tackling the $2000 level for the first time.

The PMs reached my short term objectives overnight. Yesterday, I told you to look for a test of the 1800 level and we got an early morning peak today of almost 1798. I also mentioned that silver would catch some EE-inspired resistance at 40.40. It reached 40.38. They both since tailed off and I'd expect that to continue.

Now, don't get me wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see the metals catch a bid this morning and plow right through those levels. They might. Someday very soon, they will. I just don't think that today is the day. A typical advance from this type of technical position would be to pull back a little here. Gold could drop back toward 1770-75. It might even see 1760-65. From there, though, I look for the next advance that will carry it through 1800 and beyond. Silver is the same. The 40.40 level is all that stands between silver and a retest of the resistance near 42. It will take solid effort to get through there and I don't think that the momentum is there today to pull it off. Let's look for a pullback under 40, maybe to 39.75 or so. From there, silver should catapult forward and break the EE line at 40.40.

The general commodity rally we forecast last week is certainly in full swing. Crude is back up to 88.50 this morning and the December corn just made new contract highs yesterday. Expect this rally to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, someone emailed me this link. Probably more than a few of you will find this interesting:

https://www.activistpost.com/2011/08/4-ways-to-break-silver-manipulation.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Have a great day! TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  126 Comments

beach_bum
Aug 17, 2011 - 11:54am

Mad as Hell

Are you kidding me
bullwhip29
Aug 17, 2011 - 11:57am

Another day, another raid...

If it weren't for the equity markets continuing to teeter on the edge, these manipulative efforts might actually work. Come on guys and gals, I know you are capable of more than this. No? There is clearly all kinds of resistance at S&P 1200, which isn't surprising considering that the index was basically at 1100 way back on...uhh, oh...last week. If equities close down today there is a chance that a significant % (if not all) of this recent dead cat bounce will be unwound in the coming days. I'm sure TPTB are fully aware of this, so I am expecting them to attempt another engineered market ramp job like we saw at the end of last August (the last time it looked like it was game over for stocks). If this doesn't work, there's always that QE3 card to play. For those assuming that QE3 will be launched at Jackson Hole later this month (and there could be a lot of you), some short term pain may be coming your way. Regardless of the timing, such a program may not work anyway and would leave the TPTB with no other option than to resort to plan B, which is to find another country to bomb, rape, pillage, occupy for the foreseeable future.


Aug 17, 2011 - 12:00pm

The child's speech

I thought the girls speech was entirely relevant to the forum here. She was accusing TPTB of hypocrisy and of destroying natural resources rather than finding a long-term balance of harvesting and sustaining resources. It is these same world leaders that are fleecing the sheeple, manipulating silver markets, and destroying our economies to get bigger personal bonuses and corporate financial domination of the entire planet, if not a grand conspiracy for political domination. I applaud any child that calls them on the carpet, from whatever perspective.

I am taking a break from work to watch the speech and write this post. I am reviewing an article submitted for publication in an academic journal that defends the right of one government to intervene militarily in another country. It is written entirely from the perspective of TPTB, that the Euro-american forms of republican government are morally right and are justified to intervene militarily in other nations. At one time, I might have agreed. But now, as I watch the US government start wars and lead the world into a depression, I wonder what is so morally right about our perverted form of democracy. What do I tell this author? That he is full of crap and a schill of TPTB?

It makes me want to quit my tenured professor's job and go become a trader, eco-homebuilder, and subsistence farmer.

Please, somebody tempt me!

Larry
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:03pm

Don't take that job and shove it just yet

"These past few weeks I find myself going through the motions at work. To me it sure feels like something very big is about to happen. I have no idea what but I believe when "it" happens we will all remember where and what we were doing when it happens." – Wineguy

For those with good jobs and a need for a steady income, it's none of my business but for whatever it's worth... it is best to focus on your job and do a great job. Keep the fiat coming in and give your employer an honest days work for the pay. You know what to do to build your mini "ark" now and you'll know what to do when the fiat no longer matters because things of value have risen too high.

Then, when that time comes, "when "it" happens we will all remember where and what we were doing when it happens", you will have done everything possible to enter a new age with no regrets. Watching the moment-by-moment action will lead many people into a horrible, fearful, non-productive state of mind and they’ll wear themselves out emotionally before the time they will need to have their strength and wits about them.

Over the last five years some of us have already gone through the emotional roller coaster due to becoming aware of these things that looked to transpire any day… since 2007. That’s a long time of “any day now”. That shock inspired many of us to start preparing. It also caused many of us to stress more than we needed to.

So, consider this being from the book of "do as I say, not as I do". I'll really need to remember what I know when I need to act upon the knowledge… and practice what I preach as well.

Buying physical is not difficult, time consuming or stressful. Trying to time the bottoms and tops can be. Trying to second guess the EE and outsmart the HFTs will drive you bonkers. Getting mad over and over because of the Cartel manipulation and HFT trading will drive you mad.

Worry does nobody any good. Loss of focus could get you fired. Jobs are scarce. So are gold and silver.

Monedas ScottJ
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:13pm

Jon Stewart gains credibility for a moment !

Although he shamelessly plagiarizes Rush Limbaugh's approach to media bias, it's a win for the truth ! Furthermore; Jon, you are a funny guy, if you keep up this new approach to humour based on the truth you will go farther with Signal gasoline ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Colleague Pep Talk PS Don't forget Monedas has Sept. 5, 2011 for Ag breaking $50 !

Larry
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:14pm

Warning signs all around

“… when "it" happens we will all remember where and what we were doing when it happens."

By dead reckoning and with eyes and ears fully operational… I’ve seen and heard (and read) of a vast increase in military flight "exercises" recently (at least all over the east coast), which leads me to believe that we will see a major conflict very soon. This level of activity occurred right before Afghanistan and again before Iraq. Our war machine does not get geared up in those numbers for nothing. Once the military gets "all dressed up" they like to go to a dance. I don't make light of this and pray I am wrong, but I have a very, very bad feeling about what is coming. It ‘feels’ imminent.

Warning Sign: The politicos are ‘softening up the beachhead’ of public opinion right now for a “need” and rationale for war. If you guys haven't read the Gonzalo Lira spat with Brad DeLong on the recent Broder and Krugman commentaries with their justifications for war you should check it out (link below).

Warning Sign: Look at the Dollar and all other fiat money diving. This is a loss of trust in governments. They can’t fix this problem and they can’t do what they will do to the citizenry without an “event” to point to as the “cause”.

Warning Sign: Look at the opinion polls about the mistrust of all politicians. This is a loss of trust in governments. They can’t fix this problem and they can’t do what they will do to the citizenry without an “event” to point to as the “cause”.

Warning Sign: Look at the prices of gold, silver and commodities. This is a loss of trust in governments. They can’t fix this problem and they can’t do what they will do to the citizenry without an “event” to point to as the “cause”.

Warning Sign: The largest, most dangerous countries hate us and will harm us as soon as they can. Our politicians, Cartel banksters, crony corporations, the entire Western elite empire… along with their sinful misuse of military force have all combined to caused this chaos and hate. China, Russia and the entire Mideast are all against us economically, politically or both. The Muslims want us all dead. We can thank the sins of our rulers and their rulers for this.

Warning Sign: When all media, even those that call themselves “conservative” or “fair and balanced” no longer challenge the powers that be (if they ever did), but instead, beats the drum in support of the economic and political status quo and promotes propaganda from the industrial military complex.

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/11/contradictions-in-life-of-fluffer.html

silvergoldsilver
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:16pm

Gold has NOT been the best investment this year

"In 2011, so far gold has been the champion investment above and beyond any contender, including stocks and equities."

Ya I stopped reading that link after that sentence, sorry.

mrgneiss
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:18pm

@cpnscarlet - I completely

@cpnscarlet - I completely agree that in some jurisdictions, like California, environmentalism and overregulation can ruin a good thing, there has to be a balance between free markets and capitalism and government oversight and regulation (I used to be a small business owner until being bought out, so I know about government overregulation) . The examples I mentioned are not fantasy and are good examples where a little more oversight might have been a good thing, the Gulf oil spill and Fukashima, and these are only the most recent. The massive garbage zone that exists in the Pacific that is the size of a small continent is not fantasy. However, it seems to me that the world is too focused on global warming and not focused enough on oversight in the banking and investment sectors.

It is certainly not "propaganda" that somewhere between 10,000 - 20,000 children die everyday due to hunger, and as I said to be aware and care about this issue would hardly qualify one as being a "commie" or automatically supporting a one world UN government, we in the West truly do have much and our problems are miniscule compared with many children who fight and suffer everyday just to survive. Maybe we were raised differently, I was taught that to be successful in life and be financially secure were worthy goals, but I was also taught that helping people who were sick or truly living in poverty (and I mean the poor of the third world, not some deadbeat welfare case in the US) was the worthiest goal, especially if they were children. But for many in the US (but not most of those on this site), it seems like their biggest concern to be able to afford the latest F-250 and be able to fill it up with cheap gas. So, if that makes me an ignoramous.........fine.

SilverDog
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:21pm

@Beach_Bum

Excellent post.

Dr G
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:22pm

@beach_bum

Great video. I feel the same way. I honestly can't even think about it anymore because my blood pressure goes through the roof and I become enraged.

A bit about me: I own an office and employ 8 people. I pay them very well compared to what their peers make in the same profession. I treat them well. We have fun at work.

I make more than 90% of Americans. I know that. But my disposable income isn't that great. I have several hundreds of thousands (read: $400k +) in student loan debt that I pay on. After that, and my insane malpractice insurance, and all the taxes that get heaped upon me, my disposable income isn't that different from many of the staff that I employ. That's the truth.

Am I living in a ditch somewhere? Of course not. I live just fine--but I'm tired of getting punished (through taxes and other means) for going to 12 years of post-high school education. Every time the President talks about "revenue" I feel like crying and screaming, because we all know exactly what he is talking about. He is talking about taxing me more so we can provide more free healthcare for the patients that I see, many of which don't even bother to show up for their appointments.

I would be doing much better financially if I had a $60k/year job. I love what I do, but the small-business owners in this country can't continue to carry these burdens for those that are too lazy to attempt to help themselves. I have no problem helping those in need. I donate generously to those around me, because I have been blessed. I have a problem helping those that feel they are entitled to it.

I'd like to see my taxes (personal and business) lowered so that I can hire another person, and spend more money. That's the simple fact.

I don't want to vote for any of these clowns, because it's mostly futile. Just a waste of energy. So I'll just keep putting everything I have into PMs, and working hard and treating people well, and hopefully it all works out in the end.

Rant off.

AugmentedFourth
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:31pm

Intellectual laziness...

Immediately attacking any moral argument that implies environmentalism or non-biblically derived compassion for the poor as left-wing or collectivist propaganda is just intellectually lazy. It simply reduces any potential new philosophical ideas into a jumble of preconceived associations that are merely a reflection of our own experiences; no new knowledge can be gained.

This is EXACTLY how all of our arguments for "free-markets" fall on deaf-ears! The mere mention of the word conjures up images of our current bankster-run corporatocracy. They simply turn away. there is no hope of ever opening their eyes to the lessons of some of the economic greats like Mises or Hazlitt. To them "free-markets" can only mean crony-capitalism. To some here, compassion for the poor and environmentalism can only mean authoritarianism. No wonder it's so hard to change minds!

Once we let these labels or "keywords" become poisoned with political undertones (that may or may not be present) we wall ourselves off from the acquisition of new knowledge. We just need to remember to question the validity of these political (and often emotional) conclusions that we draw. After all, if I were to say "We need to clean up the oceans and prevent oil spills" you'd immediately paint a much different picture than if you read the rest: "by removing regulation along with liability-limits providing better legal protection for the property rights of the stakeholders, thus providing incentives towards more mutually beneficial outcomes."

bobby
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:33pm

wanna really shake 'em up?

do nothing

stop spending, working, using gas

just sit down

imagine

BTW: equity sell off into the close

Monedas
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:36pm

Monedas vs Jon Stewart ..... Historical perspective !

"How many divisions does the Pope have ?"....Stalin "How much Silver does Jon Stewart have ?"....Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Histerical History

ScottJ margaritatime
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:41pm

Talk about collective consciousness evoloving...

Thanks MargaritaTime!

I am watching the Quickening Video you posted, and I couldn't help but laugh about the stunning coincidence of topic choice and the timing (as far as I can tell at least). The evolution of consciousness is happening! Thank you very much for the video, much appreciated as it sums up the scenario I see coming very well.

The dates are what makes me laugh specifically.

My post from 16 Days Ago.... https://thehardrightedge.com/are-you-aware/

The Quickening Being Posted --

ewc58
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:41pm

Great post Dr. G

You are a heck of a man and employer. And a fine American.

Your people are very, very lucky. People like you make this a very special place.

Good luck to you Sir.

Animal Sacrifice
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:43pm

Porcine Sacrifices Verified

Today I received 10 notices from Walgreens each advising me to expect my "order" of 11 hams. So, someone has been slaughtering, if not sacrificing, hams for me which is a good thing since as a diabetic I can't eat carbs (the traditional wheat/honey storage items are poison to me) and this looks to be the only non carb item I can, afford, choke back, and keep down (bacon looks good Eric O but I'm too broke for that unless they take food stamps.)

Of course if the shit really hits the fan, I'll be eating the animals I do personally sacrifice to resolve my clients problems.

Ogún riko comerá

Shill
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:45pm

Dr G

Great post Doc, I know the feeling. It goes out quicker than it comes in. Fortunately I have been following this racket for quiet sometime.

Zero Debt on my end, Naadaa I have not owned a Credit Card in 14 year, yup 14 years folks, and look Ma I am still here. The downside to that is I must use cash at all times and I must have cash at my disposal. Not easy at times but it works and I have it mastered.

Tax me more or my business and well I'll just quit it all and sit back and watch the unwinding doing absolutely nothing. Like you I am sick and tired of carrying the other 70%. Don't get me wrong I do not mind paying my fair share as I do, but anymore than what is accepted now, is not acceptable and I'll give it all up and do zero, like the other 70% . Respectfully Dirt bags get better treatment than us laborers and that is the god dam truth.

Be well Doc and hang in there.

Physical_only
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:48pm

@ Dr. G

Same situation, less the student loans; different business. It will pay off.

Karma's important no matter what anyone say's. All the BEST

celebrityrazz
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:50pm

Harry Dent says the top is in for gold a silver

Harry Dent says the top is in for gold a silver at the 6 minute mark of his latest video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgHu02zN0p8&feature=player_embedded

Anyone know his record in the metals market? I know he had some crazy Dow calls in the past.

cpnscarlet
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:52pm

You call this a raid?

If a raid means Au up 3 and Ag up 1/4, then give me more. A day like this keeps me in show leather for another week. BM's mojo going down!

PS - Vypuero - Thanks for the support. My rage is no different in quality or quantity than those of the man in the "Mad As Hell" vid on pg. 1. For those of you who think I'm short on feelings, empathy, and compassion, fine. There's been too much of that stuff going around since the 1960s (at the expense of common sense).

LaMachinna
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:54pm

Man - the silence out of Europe

IS DEAFENING! Eeerieeee, if ya ask me. Anyone else been wondering?

tread_w_care
Aug 17, 2011 - 12:56pm

Ruh Roh Raggie: Venezuela Nationalizing Gold Industry

https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN1E77G0TO20110817

And so it begins . . .

Thought this was worthy of its own thread, posted to Current Events.

AugmentedFourth
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:04pm

http://af.reuters.com/article

https://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN1E77G0TO20110817

And so it begins . . .

Thought this was worthy of its own thread, posted to Current Events.

Only bullish for bullion prices in the long run. Output quickly trends to ZERO for any industry Hugo touches.

¤
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:06pm

Sharp Escalation of Words from S&P/ZH

S&P Slashes US Growth Forecast, Says Current Crisis Is Worse Than 2008 As US At "Risk Of Default", Ridicules "Transitory"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2011 - 12:37

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Venezuela nationalizing gold is actually a smart thing, if your them. I'm sure at some point if Gold/Silver becomes that important to any countries monetary base that a lot more countries will follow gradually and then maybe a bit more urgently. I have no idea on a time frame. Months, Years?

Cleburne61 celebrityrazz
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:07pm

Hey Celebrityrazz...I'll bite

Hey Celebrityrazz...I'll bite on this one:

If you gave your life savings to an egg timer, and trusted it to invest and grow your portfolio...it WOULD DO YOU LESS FINANCIAL DAMAGE THAN HARRY DENT WOULD!

Honestly, it's true, in 10 years, you could walk back into the Egg Timer's office, and you'd find that same certified check, or pile of cash that you left on its desk....untouched, save by the ravages of inflation.

But with Harry, you'd have the double whammy of inflation + destructive ignorance.

Cheers!

beardeus
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:08pm
Dr G ewc58
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:15pm

@ewc58

Thank you sir, but I'm nothing special. I'm only 33. I don't have the financial knowledge that many of you do. I buy physical where and when I can. Sometimes it's a big load, other times (like last night) it's only 5 ASEs (to avoid the evil eye from my wife!).

Everybody makes this place special. It's nice to have a place where we share many common interests. Like somebody said last week, my wife has forbidden me to discuss PMs or inflation or monetary policy with many of our friends because they think I'm crazy and I partly scare them. I'm not in the mood to debate them anymore either, so I just leave it alone.

I have a strong faith, and love my family (our 4th child is due in 2 weeks!!), and really desire a utopia where everybody contributes in some form, whatever that may be, and everybody reaps the benefits.

Hat tip to everybody here!

celebrityrazz
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:16pm

Harry Dent

Harry Dent is a complete and total douchebag who must be ignored.

Back in the early 90s, he forecast Dow 36,000 by 2011. Never quite made it. Since then, all he's done is backtrack and obfuscate. A true snake oil salesman like Prechter. Douchebag extraordinaire!

Shill
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:19pm

@ cpnscarlet

For those of you who think I'm short on feelings, empathy, and compassion, fine.

I am way past that Aura, my motto now is Fuck everyone.

( PRESENT COMPANY EXCLUDED )

Like this morning I am driving on my way to the office, 55 mile an hour in the slow lane nothing big no rush to get here. I see this blue Honda weaving in and out of lanes no big deal she is 3 lanes over from me. So in a split second she cuts over 3 lanes and literally runs me off the road into the break down lane. So now I am pissed I throw up my hands beep my horn, what does the Douche do, gives me the finger.

I hate all people all sizes all colors don't make a difference you suck and all you care about is yourself. I was always the guy who helped people out bent over to pick something up for someone, held a door, help with a flat tire, spare change... Nope not anymore Fuck ya.

I know lousy attitude, but you people out there reading this created my misery. So I can relate cpnscarlet.

Cheers

celebrityrazz TF
Aug 17, 2011 - 1:21pm

Harry Dent says the top is in for gold a silver

Thanks Turd! I'll do the opposite.

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