Wallowing In The Mire

Wed, Aug 17, 2011 - 9:31am

What the true proverb says has happened to them: “The dog returns to its own vomit, and the sow, after washing herself, returns to wallow in the mire.” 2 Peter 2:22

Ole Turd ain't much of a biblical scholar but I'm pretty sure Saint Peter wasn't prophesying about the decline of the U.S. dollar when he wrote this. But...

Ole Pigatha sure is living up (down) to her name today. We are getting very close to a test of the lows from back in early May. IF those lows fail, the Pig will rapidly decline toward critical and final support around 72. If you're wondering, the all-time, spot low is 70.81, found back in March of 2008. Not coincidentally, this was when gold was breaking the $1000 level for the first time. If it heads back there again soon, and it looks like it might, it will likely correlate with gold tackling the $2000 level for the first time.

The PMs reached my short term objectives overnight. Yesterday, I told you to look for a test of the 1800 level and we got an early morning peak today of almost 1798. I also mentioned that silver would catch some EE-inspired resistance at 40.40. It reached 40.38. They both since tailed off and I'd expect that to continue.

Now, don't get me wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to see the metals catch a bid this morning and plow right through those levels. They might. Someday very soon, they will. I just don't think that today is the day. A typical advance from this type of technical position would be to pull back a little here. Gold could drop back toward 1770-75. It might even see 1760-65. From there, though, I look for the next advance that will carry it through 1800 and beyond. Silver is the same. The 40.40 level is all that stands between silver and a retest of the resistance near 42. It will take solid effort to get through there and I don't think that the momentum is there today to pull it off. Let's look for a pullback under 40, maybe to 39.75 or so. From there, silver should catapult forward and break the EE line at 40.40.

The general commodity rally we forecast last week is certainly in full swing. Crude is back up to 88.50 this morning and the December corn just made new contract highs yesterday. Expect this rally to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, someone emailed me this link. Probably more than a few of you will find this interesting:


Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2011 - 9:34am


Good morning.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:35am

Right on time

Thanks for the timely outlook, TF.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:39am

Morning Turd!

(NOT for the Dollar though - ouch!)

Thanks Man!

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:39am

Morning Turd

Thank you for the update.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:40am

Hey Turd, Call me dense, but

Hey Turd,

Call me dense, but since reading Gonzalo Lira's post the other day I have been racking my brain trying to grasp how the collapse of France fits into the "domino theory" that could lead to big events here in the US. It is just not clear to me in a way that I can explain it to others. I would love it if you (or any of our other esteemed and savvy colleagues here) could comment on the relationships between the European Union-euro and the dollar-American banking system.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:41am

The comments from the GATA

The comments from the GATA member talking about the sheer number of short volume on the major miners on 8/15 miners leads me to believe another raid is coming before we move higher ($HUI being capped at 580). Harvey Organ talked about it last night at the end of his report.

In other news - If you haven't seen Jon Stewart bash the MSM, then this is a great video about their lack of coverage for Ron Paul.

Video unavailable


And an added song :)

Video unavailable
Aug 17, 2011 - 9:43am


looking for a target of $61.56 on the GDX today and waver from there.

We shall see.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:50am

Commodities rally seems to be

Commodities rally seems to be in full swing, yes, but why is Cotton still treading water?

Any news I've missed?

Tom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 9:50am


I'll agree with you but if the Miners close above their capped levels that could be the signal that the future is closer than we may think.

The XAU is now running towards 220 and the HUI has broken 580.

I have a print of $40.43 on Silver.


Aug 17, 2011 - 9:50am

well well well

$40.40 hit.

now HOLD!

Tom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 9:51am


He's picking a fight with ZH on Twitter and getting his Keynesian head handed to him.

He's, of course, too arrogant to respond to anyone substantively... he has books to sell after all.


Aug 17, 2011 - 9:52am
Aug 17, 2011 - 9:53am

BTW - Look at Oil

Breaking above 88 (WTI) and 110 (Brent)

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:54am

Thanks Turd

Man I have to learn to get out of my own way. Last week I sold out and was content with my profit. (Turds advice). Then turd calls the 1725-1730 bottom and I don't buy, worried of retest of gap. Then still have a chance to get in Monday morning @1738 when turd says he is certain gold would rise and retest highs. No I excuse myself because I didn't want to be stressed while I had some things going this week. Well that didn't work out. Hehe.

Thanks for everything turd. You give guys like me a shot when I wouldn't other wise make a cent trading. Physical buying is the only thing I don't screw up. Overall up on silver. But down slightly because of my early stock picks. Wasted lots of hard earned dollars on equities.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:56am

Is it just me?

These past few weeks I find myself going through the motions at work. To me it sure feels like something very big is about to happen. I have no idea what but I believe when "it" happens we will all remember where and what we were doing when it happens. How will AU & AG react is anyones guess.

Aug 17, 2011 - 9:58am


has got to lose that chastity belt sooner or later.

Tom L
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:01am

Twitter Spat

Nouriel Roubini Gold as good as Spam in 4casting prices :two conflicting signs. Gold demand pricing in inflation; low bond yields signal deflation zerohedge @ luckily the CME can not hike spam margins Ta,

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:04am
cpnscarlet WineGuy
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:09am

Waiting for "it".

"...going through the motions at work..." Dang, one day back in February, I took a look at the whole shootin' match (Obama, dollar, gold, tyranny,...), went into my office, and just started taking the pictures off the wall. I quit my nice "cushy" (if it really was that, I wouldn't have quit) 6-figure defense contractor/aerospace job and went home. I now live by my wits and trading.

I am much happier/healthier personally, but still "running scared" every morning when I read the days news and posts. These times are way too "interesting".

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:12am


No, it's not just you. I've had a feeling of impending doom for a while. I'm pretty sure something's coming, but I don't know what or when. It does make work and other day-to-day stuff seem insignificant. I'm just muddling through as best as I can right now. Bought a little gold recently. That helps piece of mind a bit, but it's just ... stuff and not a real lasting comfort for the overall feeling.

I think what helps the most is knowing you're not the only one feeling that way.

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:13am

$61.55 high on the GDX  my

$61.55 high on the GDX my call 61.56 from here Gravy :)

Good luck

Tom L cpnscarlet
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:13am


First off, I want to congratulate you on your courage for doing that. That takes nads sir, and some amount of principle to walk away from the last stage of corpse looting that's going on.

I got laid off from a good job in Feb. and have to do the same thing. Live by my wits and my skills as a trader/farmer. I'm much happier for it even if everyday is a struggle against the crappy cash-flow situation.

Good luck and be well.


Aug 17, 2011 - 10:18am

Hail the Turd

Thanks, Turd! Great tools for the tool belt and great article. Appreciate all you do.

Pls tell Mrs. Turd hi

<cheering for silver>

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:19am

Me thinks Walgreens is

having to find back up inventory from Agatha!

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:28am

Yes, Leaving a job due to your convicitions....

... is to be commended. I'm VERY close to doing the same. But, it's not so brave. I've been working over 30 years now and have saved up a bit and haven't borrowed beyond my means. I can now walk away from it all without much worry. I'd like to devote my time to volunteering to something that matters rather than being a tax donkey for a corrupted system. But, I'm not yet sure what form this will take yet....

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:28am

Nice work TF/ todays 9:15 a.m. PM take down

Thanks for charts and biblical touch right out of the gate.

The beat down in the PM's was a little hard to stomach between 9:15 and 9:30 this a.m. AGAIN. They are working over the options market big time.

Who is watching the markets at the SEC or where ever they are supposed to be monitored for improprieties?

Does the U.S. have a working Attorney General? What critical issue's are they exactly tackling these days? Doesn't the blatant manipulation of a major commodities market, among other things, warrant some kind of action? Who is our AG? Stevie Wonder? (they'll never do anything unless Paul gets in, period)

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:33am


she finally gave in

Dakini ScottJ
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:33am

Iowa Straw Poll Results ~ Ron Paul - Strong 2nd

@ScottJ and all others who posted Jon Stewart's vid on the media dissing of Ron Paul:


Here's the official results from Iowa (from https://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/13/news/la-pn-straw-numbers-20110813)

1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)

2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)

3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)

4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)

5. Herman Cain (1456, 8.62%)

6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in

7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)

8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)

9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)

10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)

The media makes me sick ~ I am seriously thinking of calling and complaining VERY LOUDLY. Anyone got links to where we can leave comments to those media for the completely BLATANT misreporting?

Aug 17, 2011 - 10:36am

>>Does the U.S. have a

>>Does the U.S. have a working Attorney General? What critical issue's are they exactly tackling these days? Doesn't the blatant manipulation of a major commodities market, among other things, warrant some kind of action?

Hello PurpleHaze.

What are you complaining about man? If it weren't for those beatdowns there would be no obvious entry points each day :)

Mikey cpnscarlet
Aug 17, 2011 - 10:36am

Got screwed out of my job in

Got screwed out of my job in Apr. trading and a part time biz are doing it for me right now. Agree w/ "something is coming". It's palpable, you can feel it. Happy to be home working in the garden, vac sealing etc. When it hits u'll be glad not to be 50-75 miles away at some job.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by RickshawETF, 24 min 41 sec ago
by Blankone, 2 hours 21 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 28 min ago
by lakedweller2, 3 hours 32 min ago
by lakedweller2, 3 hours 34 min ago