German Gold Hijinx

387
Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 11:54am

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  387 Comments

Grublux
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:16pm

can we bust it tho???

Edit: As of 1:15 we did!

beardeus
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:17pm

Just have to wait for the

Just have to wait for the debt ceiling to be raised!

pourty
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:19pm

@Bollocks: re: Silver conductors

From the last thread: I was wrong. You were right. Apologies for my lack of understanding. Silver is the best conductor.

I guess it's better to feel foolish once in a while after having a belief challenged than to never be challenged at all!

By the way, crow tastes terrible...

ETA: gold being a better conductor is a common misconception among engineers. I know this now (and will gladly tell others I work with next time it comes up!).

ag1969
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:20pm

Andy Hoffman interview

WATERSHED EVENT: Bundesbank Wants Its GOLD Back! - Andy Hoffman: PT. 1
The Final Stage of the Ponzi: HYPERINFLATION - Andy Hoffman: PT 2
tmosley pourty
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:21pm

@purty and bollocks: Silver

@purty and bollocks:

Silver is the best ELEMENTAL conductor. Superconductors are naturally much better. Graphene and carbon nanotubes are also better conductors in two and one dimension, respectively.

treefrog
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:23pm

beardus,

"So if you could buy a Bushmaster AR for $1,100 or $1,100 in silver, which would you do?"

buy an ak-47 for under $500 and put the rest in ammo and silver.

bushmaster AR is a fine weapon, and well engineered, but it only works well when kept spotlessly clean. a speck of dirt in the wrong place, and you have a well engineered non-operative piece of equipment. can be used as a bludgeon.

the ak-47 on the other hand is a simple, low-tech piece of hardware designed to put a lot of lead in the air. it will fire if you drag it through the mud. it will fire if you abuse it. it will fire if it isn't actually underwater at the time.

the united states army and marines have a long and glorious tradition of losing wars to hordes of peasants armed with ak-47s.

billwilson
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:25pm

Interesting markets

Correlations are switching, trading patterns reversing ... a major move, or at least a major change in direction, coming.

Examples:

1. SPY usually has been selling into the Europe close (this has been a consistent pattern for some time). Now we are seeing the opposite the last couple of days.

2. Usually we get a bit of a pop in the miners first thing, followed by a slow sell off after 11 am (or sometimes earlier). Now we are seeing an immediate sell off first thing, almost irrespective of gold, followed by a later recovery, of course then a final fade to the end of the day.

3. On some sharp moves down on the 10 second chart on the SPY you actually see a spike up in the miners (short-lived, but obvious)

Coiling ....


Jan 16, 2013 - 1:27pm

I've received several

I've received several complaints that Monday's video did not include The Wicked Witch. Until I can make another one, this will have to do...an oft-overlooked masterpiece where The Witch attempts to seduce my pal, Ned.

Video unavailable
eyeswideopen
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:32pm

France will be front of the

France will be front of the risk line if they are tied as closely to global Sovereign debt as it appears. No conspiracy to believe they are on a treasure hunt like US was in Libya and elsewhere. We sure were'nt gonna give Chavez 'our' gold

Criminals will, at some point, demand collateral from France (see Greece) and regardless of claim of ownership. Trust in the system is evaporating. Banks have no horse in the counterparty race. They'll leave those parties to battle it out.

Germany? Better safe than sorry. Just sayin'.

How much global gold is there left to 'liberate' without major conflict arising?

Next stop...Iran? (I doubt it). No urgencty yet. Plus there's the China and Russia thing.

Easier to prevent/limit/track/tax and steal the holdings of the unwashed masses.

The funnel is getting bigger.


Jan 16, 2013 - 1:32pm

And then there's this little

And then there's this little gem, which I made by request for Andy but never published to YT. (I think he was jealous that The Witch had made a play for Ned and not him!)

Video unavailable
Bill of Rights
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:36pm

Bundesbank Official Statement On Gold Repatriation

Deutsche Bundesbank’s new storage plan for Germany’s gold reserves By 2020, the Bundesbank intends to store half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults in Germany. The other half will remain in storage at its partner central banks in New York and London. With this new storage plan, the Bundesbank is focusing on the two primary functions of the gold reserves: to build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold trading centres abroad within a short space of time. The following table shows the current and the envisaged future allocation of Germany’s gold reserves across the various storage locations:

31 December 2012 31 December 2020
Frankfurt am Main 31 % 50 %
New York 45 % 37 %
London 13 % 13 %
Paris 11 % 0 %
To this end, the Bundesbank is planning a phased relocation of 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt as well as an additional 374 tonnes from Paris to Frankfurt by 2020. The withdrawal of the reserves from the storage location in Paris reflects the change in the framework conditions since the introduction of the euro. Given that France, like Germany, also has the euro as its national currency, the Bundesbank is no longer dependent on Paris as a financial centre in which to exchange gold for an international reserve currency should the need arise. As capacity has now become available in the Bundesbank’s own vaults in Germany, the gold stocks can now be relocated from Paris to Frankfurt.
jaw777
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:37pm

Wicked Witch

Turd:

Any chance you could get the Wicked Witch to work in a strip-tease in her next video???

All in favor, tip the hat!


Jan 16, 2013 - 1:39pm

It still cracks me up

That people can type this with a straight face: "Market analyst Turd Ferguson"

Thanks to GATA for linking! https://www.gata.org/node/12125


Jan 16, 2013 - 1:42pm

Trying...

Probably needs about $31.60 to trip the buy-stops.

ltcolkilgore
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:52pm

Turd...

It's wonderful how all of this modern technology lets you keep in touch while out on the lake...

Oops.... gotta go... wife is screaming something about a receipt for a bunch of PVC pipe and a post hole digger...

Swineflogger
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:52pm

@Turd - Hilarious Creative Video!!!!

" my libido is in backwardation"

"you chain smoking chupacabra"

Turd you are a frickin genius!

junoroland
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:54pm

beige book action

biege book out shortly , another excuse for a intraday POG beating?

Bollocks
Jan 16, 2013 - 1:57pm

@pourty

thanks for that

@tmosley

"Silver is the best ELEMENTAL conductor."

Indeed. That's why I made the first post about graphene and suggested it might outdo silver as a conductor.

benque
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:13pm

tmosely-inferences

While enjoying your posts and points of view, I am in awe of your ability to figuratively construct a veritable Taj Mahal out of a few old bricks and some theories on graphene. If I were as you infer, I'd be inhabiting a cave in the wilderness, and drawing on the walls with charcoal (not graphene!).

By the way, I have always striven to be up to date with technological advances (especially in materials and physics), and recommend you not jump to too many conclusions until you better understand irony.

Rant off, and looking forward to your future posts.

Regards,

B


Jan 16, 2013 - 2:13pm

Green light for kinetic developments in Syria quietly issued?

Exclusive: Secret State Department cable: Chemical weapons used in Syria

"The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner

, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23."

With a puny 26t hoard, almost seems like not a worthwhile target.... ;-)

Yeah, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting year already.

Robespierre
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:15pm
El Gordo
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:28pm

I can account...

...for all my PM holdings. Now it's not measured in tonnes, but at least I can lay my hands on it in short order without having to ask some third party to please repatriate it to me. I suppose that I could claim that I have a bunch of gold stashed somewhere under the Thames River, but if you need proof, too bad. I'm beginning to think there is something up with those repatriation stories being spread but no action being taken. Maybe I'm richer than the German government and they just don't know it yet.

meegoreng1
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:31pm

Turd,

The words "Debka" and "accurate" don't belong in the same sentence.

Here, I have a word for you whenever you use the word Debka: Propoganda.

That word can also be used in the same sentences with the following news org:

ABC (Another Bullshit Corp)

CBS (Can't Believe Stories)

NBC (Never-ending Baloney Coverage)

fast mover
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:34pm

German Timeline

Given that the Germans have set up a timeline of a few years for gold repatriation, can we reasonably deduce that this could be a roadmap of a gold-backed Mark?

tyberious
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:34pm

My Dear Extended

My Dear Extended Family,

I respectfully disagree with most of the explanations given today on the why of German actions in gold. My understanding is that the causal event of this notification actually came from the actions of the US Exchange Stabilization Fund and the long term plans to strengthen the euro.

I have published a chart from Patrick showing the extreme change in the ratio of gold to fiat currency presently being held in reserve by Euroland.

First you need to understand what the Exchange Stabilization Fund is and is not. It is an account at a major gold bank in the name of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This fund can legally trade in gold and does. The President of the USA and the Secretary of the US Treasury run this fund. Those two managers by law are permitted to designate another manager if they wish. The fund can trade long or short, borrow or lend anything. Basically this is a an account that can legally do anything it wants whenever it wants in secret as the year end statement can easily be brought to only benign activates by warehousing all the trades.

Their broker is quite an expert in that strategy to wash year-end positions for clients.

What occurred as I am told is an act in Germany in reaction to a parting shot from the retiring Secretary of the US Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

When gold traded at $1918 it was setting up for a challenge of a very important round number, $2000. The sell off was a product of long liquidation in an anticipation of $2000 in a fast market. Gold did fall on its own weight into the $1800 area, however the body block at $1800, $1775 and $1750 was a product of the Exchange Stabilization Fund operating as an account of a major Gold Bank. Seeing that, this gold bank went to the short side for the account of its hedge funds and not wholly owned trading arm. This gold bank issued a public statement that the gold market was dead as a doornail, finished and completed.

On the level of central banking there are no secrets. The long term plan for the currency war between the euro and the dollar is a derivation of the Free Gold Thesis. That means a significant change in the percentage of fiat currency versus gold at market value held by Euroland as reserves. This thesis has a target for cooperating Asian central banks for gold holdings at no less than 15% at market value. I question some of the thesis of Free Gold thinkers, but much of it has been in my writing for more than a decade on what the end game recovery will look like.

I am told that the parting shot to break gold's back by the Exchange Stabilization Fund was considered a direct attack on the Euro strategy for what the end game recovery will look like. The Free Gold thesis requires significantly higher gold prices to work and to elevate the euro back in reserve by choice category.

The German reaction was not political but rather a direct warning that they could demand return of their gold just like DeGaulle of France did in the 60s by making a direct and immediate demand for conversion of the US dollar holdings into Gold.

A major central bank will not insult another major central bank unless it is an act of financial war. It has not come to that yet, but it is not that far away. It is 2015 to 2017 and not 2020.

The reason that gold is relatively firm after the media leak and release on the night of the 14th is that I am not the only person who knows the real story. The price of gold will go to and beyond $3500. Gold will be market to market by the majority, if not all, major central banks. This will balance the balance sheet of the many and major debtor nations and will provide the platform for recovery after unwinding.

Respectfully,
Jim

Encouraging? Yes!

question
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:35pm

Completely Off Topic

but is anyone else having problems loading charts from Netdania using Java and Firefox? I keep getting security blocks. Tried reloading Java blah blah blah but it continues; been going on for a few days now. TIA

rpboxster
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:38pm

people don't care...

I offered to purchase an NRA membership for any FB friend. 1 taker so far. I'm sending the NRA money anyway, so I thought I'd add to the membership rolls. I believe most of my FB friends are conservative and believe in the 2A, but are not NRA members or active in the shooting sports.

I wonder if I'd get the same response if I offered a free silver dollar. Sadly, I probably would. I think the normalcy bias is very strong with almost everyone, i.e., "why would I need that? everything is fine".

SRSrocco
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:38pm

HYPE & FUNDAMENTALS...

HYPE SELLS WHILE THE FUNDAMENTALS TELLS....the true story

Funny how the BIG NEWS ITEM yesterday of German gold repatriation went from a GAME CHANGER.... to a YAWN when we realized just how much gold was going to be moved and it what time frame. Don't get me wrong, its good news for the gold and silver community as it is GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. However, this is more of the same hype that gets the markets all excited short term.

Here is my take:

I am becoming more DEAF to short term ANNOUNCEMENTS and CALLS. What happened to Bill Murphy's BIG INSIDER on the JP MORGAN manipulation? What happened to Harvey Organ and the 19 million oz of silver delivery that was supposed to occur at the end of DEC? What about Ted Butler and the JP Morgan Silver Investigation?

Believe me you, I am not downing these folks. They are on our side and I realize the work they are trying to do. We just have to remember, the POWERS THAT WERE (line stole from Mike Ruppert) have more leverage currently.

ENERGY WILL BE THE GAME CHANGER

Yes... I know, I am a BROKEN RECORD. However, I believe the future energy situation will CULL ALL LEVELS OF WEALTH.... period (except precious metals and etc). I am not referring to an investment per say, but the levels of individual and corporate wealth in a society.

I no longer care about what this organization is doing to protest this, or what that analyst is writing about this manipulation because in the end.... THE POWERS THAT WERE.... still hold the leverage.... C-U-R-R-E-N-T-L-Y. But this leverage will become less and less as the real energy situation reveals its ugly head.

GOLD & SILVER are stores of value... because they are stores of energy. Energy makes a person function and it also runs the world's economies.

This will be the subject of my upcoming presentation.

Robespierre
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:42pm

Nice, but

these might be even more appropriate...

"L'or parti depuis longtemps. Ma nation est morte! Boo-hoo-hoo..."

ancientmoney SRSrocco
Jan 16, 2013 - 2:43pm

@SRSrocco re: hype and fundies . . .

Agreed, as usual, with your post. The "powers that were" have that leverage because they have resorted to levels of lawlessness and fraud that the normal person cannot access.

They in-your-face steal, change rules, manipulate, lie, and cheat to attain their objectives.

The law they cannot overcome is the Law of Thermodynamics. It is a matter of time. And, time is running short.

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