Low E

347
Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 11:42am

As a middle-aged American male, I'm told by my television that I should be concerned about "Low T"...Big Pharma slang for low testosterone. So far, so good on that one (as MrsF will attest ). A much bigger problem right now is "Low E"...Turd slang for low enthusiasm.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that discusses the MOPE and crap of yesterday. That The Fed can/will end QE as soon as later this year is so nonsensical that it doesn't deserve logical refutation.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that discusses the latest BLSBS, replete with buried statistics and mentions of participation rates and seasonal adjustments.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that includes a bunch of charts with lines drawn all over them, showing where price might stop and reverse.

For now, I only want to write about the one thing that bothered me the entire time I was on vacation...the CFTC.

You see, here's the problem: I'd like to have hope. I see things. I talk to people. I read a lot. And I think. All of this leads me to the conclusions I espouse here. Namely, that the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us and we all need to prepare accordingly. The politicians are all corrupt. The U.S., and the world for that matter, is ruled in favor of the very few, particularly the international bankers. The global economic system is about to collapse and morph into something completely different from what we've all known our entire lifetimes.

But, I'd like to have hope. Hope that I'm wrong. Hope that I simply have an overactive imagination. Hope that I am just channeling Russell Crowe playing John Nash, seeing clearly nothing but make-believe conspiracies and foolishly connecting the dots.

But the problem is...the CFTC. There the illusion and hope unravels.

You'll surely ask me how I know and I'll say "I don't". So, don't bother. I have no proof. Only faith and trust which could also be misplaced. But I am entirely confident that the CFTC has been given, all wrapped up in a neat little package, everything they need to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the metals markets are wholly and entirely manipulated for the gain of a few bullion banks. Instead of acting promptly, to restore order and confidence in "free and fair markets", they dawdle. They stall. They issue no statements. They conclude no investigations. And, most importantly, they allow the crime to continue as if nothing has changed. Only now they are accomplices, to the point of being co-conspirators.

And this is the problem. Hope is gone. Not that the CFTC was some hoped-for, last bastion of integrity. That's not it at all. They are, instead, the proverbial "straw that broke my back". Because now that I know that the CFTC is negligent and corrupt and only serving to protect and defend their TBTF overlords, my hope is gone. And, again, I'm not talking about hope for a resolution to the metals manipulation, I'm talking about hope that the entire western political and economic system really isn't as corrupt and narcissistic as it seems. For it's impossible not to reach the following conclusion:

  1. The CFTC is protecting a major TBTF, Fed primary dealer by refusing to acknowledge the manipulation.
  2. If this one, government bureaucracy is in the back-pocket of the banks, all of the rest likely are, too.
  3. And if all of the agencies are in the back-pocket of the banks, then the politicians are, too, because most of the bureaucrats are political appointees.
  4. And if all of the politicians are in the the back-pocket of the banks, then the entire political system is a sham. There are no elections. It's all just an illusion designed to mollify the masses.
  5. And if that's the case, what kind of world do we really live in?

So, you can see my problem here. I suffer from "Low E". Why bother to write about all of the day-to-day stuff? Why mark up all my silly charts? Once hope is gone, soldiering on can get pretty challenging. Perhaps I can draw renewed inspiration from the idea of "awakening the masses". Logic suggests that only by operating within the matrix can you reach those still contained therein. But I don't know. I really don't. Inevitably, the first question is: Why try at all?

Let me work on that for a while and I'll get back to you soon. Maybe tomorrow.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  347 Comments

Colonel Angus
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:46pm

Two more opinionated comments

Since everyone else is showing that part of the crack of their backside, I might as well put mine in too.

If you want to know what will happen in the event of a COMEX default, go try to buy a high capacity magazine someplace. Even something as silly as an M&P15-22 has the TEN ROUND mags going for $50 (with instructions on how to drill out the pin). The 25-round mags are going for $75 or so. I've thought of selling mine off and buying more silver. You could also look to buy anything with AR- or AK- at the beginning on something like gunsamerica. Good luck on that. My WASR-10 was delivered the evening of the Newtown issue, with 4 magazines. If I wanted I could double my money plus by selling today. I'm a stacker of many things....

Second, even if it cost your relatives for the short run, you should be telling them about the Ponzi scheme U.S. printing cabal. I got lucky, buying originally at $10-12 an ounce, selling half around $45 an ounce, then buying back from $40 all the way down to $26. At about $27-28 an ounce I convinced some relatives to buy. My mom's husband has been buying junk silver for 19x face and is the king of craigslist in their area. He is still winning. He also just got his concealed carry permit. Mom told my wife that "[The Colonel] has convinced [her husband] that the world is going to end." He is also stacking more base metals and their delivery mechanisms. They have a farm and make some high demand items, often have quite a few FRNs on hand. (No, it isn't medical marijuana.) He's now stacking safes, making me jealous that his stack is near the size of mine after three months of his stacking.

My father in law is doing the same, but he isn't quite as fanatical. They live on acreage, and he is a good shot. He doesn't need near the ammo that the others of us do.

Do I fret if silver happens to go down? No. We talked about stuff for nearly two years before they decided to buy. They still call to ask if something is a good deal, what I'd recommend. I talked the husband out of spending $35 apiece for some nice common date Morgans, and then he ended up getting them from someone who needed to pay a light bill for $25 apiece. I helped the father in law talk an antique dealer down from 30x face to 23x face based on current spot values. We all need to help one another out. And just because the price goes down a little, it's no big deal. With PMs you have something of tangible value. With fiat you have paper. And when they shred that stuff it is toxic waste because of the lead ink. Plus Voltaire has an appropriate quote.

So, keep preaching the need for tangible items, whether PMs or extra grains or farmland. Remember it is important to be right in the long run, even if my pride might get hit once or twice along the way. I'm wrong sometimes, and I can live with that. Turd is right in the long run. And that is most important to me. Check your motives here. I know mine, and I have read what are Turd's. And I am thankful that Turd is out there...

PS- Turd, you didn't get a visit from the guys in the black cars that made you "rethink" your actions, did you?

ivars
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:52pm

I got low E when silver was

I got low E when silver was 29,22 and then it now much improved as silver went to 30,22 in after hours.

Past 3 months all bad things ( downturns) started with payrolls. Now, for a change, they might turn things upwards.

Price rise on hourly chart for silver looks reasonably "natural". No sharp moves, steady, with pullbacks. Day (after Globex) may end with plus, and a hammer. Not bad when the daily fluctuation was +- 1 USD on the heals of FOMC minutes another 1 USD downslide.

Week - with a plus, first after 5 downweeks.

Not so bad, eh?:)

Boggs
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:55pm

I just fed the Turd $50 in

I just fed the Turd $50 in US FRN's. Now buy yourself a chunk of silver and cheer up. Thanks for all you do!

Day Tradin' Dave
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:55pm

The answer is right in front of your nose Turd

You have played and lost trading silver, no?

Id be happy to represent you in a CFTC arbitration or reparations proceeding.

We can use my contacts at Investment News to get some free pub.

You got info, Ill make the time.

Ready to put your big boy pants on? Lets go to work.

PM me and we can set up to talk privately

Maryann
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:57pm

TF...on the side of the angels

I am just a middle class mom with a kid and a husband trying to take care of my family. Don't always understand the technical posts, but I do understand we are living in crazy times and things are not right. I stumbled on ZH and Santa and then this blog a few years ago when I first started trying to make some sense of the feeling of foreboding I had.

I have always been more interested in the topics here from the preparation standpoint. When I first started educating myself, I knew very few people who shared my concerns. Now I know lots. So I don't understand why everyone panics when the metals drop a little or don't go according to what they think should. I almost wonder if some of these folks who freak out are deliberately attempting to cause confusion. Why on earth would anything be different now about PM's long-term?

Speaking of why, it is an excellent question to ask. For many reasons, but for myself my why has not changed at all in the last few years, except perhaps to just grow stronger in my original beliefs. TF, your why is the same as well.

As others have mentioned already, nothing has changed to give us hope that things will improve. I have hope though, in good. And God. And I believe ultimately that we will be rewarded for pursuing truth. Maybe not for a long time, but ultimately! So I try to stick with the guys (and ladies) that I believe are honestly telling truth, such as you TF. We all need each other. So thank you for that, and I look forward to this community continuing in the effort to educate and support. And someday, I hope we get to meet in person!

Edited because I didn't like my original title.

Zoltan
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:58pm

GoodBye LLL and Capital Account

Just listening now to their farewell spiel.

Hope she comes back soon on a new show.

Z

Byzantium
Jan 4, 2013 - 4:59pm

With heavy heart....

and while still being a stacker and a pm bull, I am marshalling my trading portion more towards surviving a PM crash, than towards profit maximisation.

  1. End of fiat currency scenario, where pm's do a moon-shot? tick, I am on that train.
  2. All in? I never was.
  3. Mostly in? yes, but less so; I'll be taking profits sooner, and be more patient than before for dips; they need to be a bit deeper before I buy.

I may miss out on many potential profits, but I am better equipped instead, to survive price crashes. I am also in a better position to add my money to punish the cartel, if they drop the price too far.

Dyna mo hum
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:02pm

Turd

It looks like you have many long term side-kicks here that give a damn about you personally. Remember after its all said and done its your side-kicks that count and as for attaining great wealth, not so much. Turd you are rich and you may not realize it.

gearhead_24 TD
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:03pm

Why by @ TD...

Voltaire said "Judge a man by his questions rather by his answers".

GH

Colin Caffeine Mudsharkbytes
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:04pm

Mudsharkbytes

Yes, I won't deny I wanted to see the price rise for my own sake but more so for my friends and family. Now it's just Mummy and me but I still worry more for her. I have made much the same decision re keeping investment advice to myself from now on. The problem with losing credibility on this issue is that it extends to everything else too. People stop listening to anything you have to say. If you try to explain that the world is going to hell by design and how you must prepare spiritually, morally, physically and any other way you can think of, they just point out how 'wrong' you were over gold and silver. Luckily, I think that if the worst case scenario does happen I have a big enough stack to help most of those people who are dear to me and didn't listen while they had the chance. The shame is, had they listened, our sphere of good influence and help could have been a lot wider, cumulatively.

daveyboy
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:05pm

FYI Lowest premium on silver

FYI Lowest premium on silver found on coininvestdirect.com is now 6.8%

The Green Manalishi Zoltan
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:11pm
Byzantium
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:12pm

This is VERY rare

Next stock three weeks, on one of the most important product lines (being the lowest premium for gold, and local gains-tax free), for perhaps the biggest bullion retailer in the UK:

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-coins/half-sovereign/bullion-half-sovereign/

This is another clear indication that physical is flying at these prices. This is good news my friends!

delacroix
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:16pm

If ignorance is bliss, the

If ignorance is bliss, the reciprocal would be (knowing the truth is painful) there's no going back.

Bugzy
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:19pm

First post for some time

I feel your pain Turd.

However, I must ask, did you really think that liberating the world from banker slavery would be a walk in the park? These are very desperate and powerful entities me old mate. They will not give in without a fight. I suspect we are witnessing that desperate fight right now!

Calm seas do not a mariner make! What say you Captain Turd?

Chin up. This too shall pass.

Bugzy.

Edit: pressfreedomfoundation.org

Please go to link. You may be surprised as to who you can now get money to. There is always a way.

thisismynewname
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:20pm

SLV crucified on CNBC

Just watched segment on "Options Action" or something on CNBC. Their 'analysts' were anticipating severe downward pressure on SLV because they anticipate (my word, not theirs) that SLV will break below several key support areas - like the 26 silver (25 slv) triple bottom, and the long term trend line (note - neither of these have been broken - but they were acting/talking like they already had).

Also - they stated that this was the worst week for silver in the past 8 years. WTF? Really? Yes! They said "worst week for silver in the past 8 years"

Also put a non-inflation adjusted chart up showing 50 in 1980 compared to the failed attempt at 50 in 2011 - and that was further proof that silver was going much lower.

Also - the G/S ratio should be at the 'historical norm" of 60! So it had a long way to fall compared to gold!

WTF? Where do they get these guys and why are they spewing so much verifiable crap? And after market close? WTF? Can I say WTF too many times?!?!?!? WTF?

Byzantium
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:25pm

@watching dogma re CNBC

another way of looking at it, is that CNBC is the MSM cover for what the cartel is going to do next.

When they do it, it is validated by having been normal market action that was foreseen by 'those in the know,' and affirms the MSM as being 'those in the know,'

MSM, The Fed, the cartel, they are all one.

¤
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:31pm

From Another...

This arrived in my PM mailbox and is self-explanatory.

I'm following through and helping this person to remain anonymous yet have their material posted as I received it. I won't chime in as requested so that this post stands on it's own.

The boards thoughtful input would appear to be wanted and appreciated by this member.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You're quite prolific - I don't seem too be - so help me if you can please

I want to get a message out / contribute on the board but I'm a bit trapped in I'm feeling like I need to support my thoughts with a bit more effort than I am capable of - the proof

FOMC: I have read the FOMC December 2012 minutes (and the previous months as well as the previous December) - a number of times

To me the important takeaways are the included Table 2 (Average Error ranges) – well separated from the economic projection Table 1. As I understand - take our 2013 GDP projections (2.3 to 3.0) and add/subtract 1.4 from them – not a lot of growth. Oh by the way all of 2012 is forecast to be 1.7 to 1.8 – which means they see quite a slow Q4 coming.

And importantly the 1.4 above is the calculated error range, but “… nearly all of the participants judged their current levels of uncertainty about real GDP growth and unemployment to be higher than was the norm during the previous 20 years …”– Comforting no, a blanket need to end QE early – not likely.

The bottom line seems to be outright mope on the public airwaves. – Conveniently switching the baton between central bank and politicians - misdirection

From the minutes I get lots of things but the most important is that the official statement and overall agreement is a move toward a non-calendar set of thresholds (that the FOMC privately chooses) to articulate policy. A discussion that followed a previous meeting discussion to go to QE4eva to adding more purchases and changing the thresholds must logically and emotionally include a discussion on when to end/ slow down or increase /etc. Why would there be a need to “date’ an end to QE when we just agreed to communicate by thresholds – so it’s just talk not dissension.

So the fact that a few talked about the end and quantity of purchase being unknown, a few talked about slowing or stopping before the end of 2013 because of financial stability or balance sheet issues and one said we should stop now - all in the context of labour condition and the broader economy. Don't forget they just published or knew of a 3.1% GDP print - so things must have be pointing up but at the same time almost all saw the yearly GDP number at 1.8%

So I ask what economic conditions lead there to be a thought that all will be better before the end of 2013 – Nothing me thinks

The minutes tie the stoppage or slowdown of QE with financial stability or b/s issues – to me that is just like the BOE said – QE AIN’T WORKING so we better think about this. That is what “… various members stressed the importance of a continuing assessment of program efficacy and costs…” means – the beginning of this whole passage and certainly more than a few.

I’m not a Fed watcher and I’m sure you can read into the minutes what you want – they are deliberately opaque like bank statements but the trend is not ‘up” me thinks

Patterns: there seems to be a pattern of flopping the MOPE between fiscal and monetary (downplaying or avoiding real economic results unless they work) flopping between geographies (Europe and USA for example) adding and avoiding geopolitical issues - China, Iran as needed to confuse or drive home a point – bad world, we just trying to get along with everyone while we apply our reserve currency tax to you.

Turd had an earlier post questioning why the "extra" effort in driving down the price of Pm's after the last expiration. I always try in my mind to answer that question as to why they are doing what they are doing - so as to better understand timing and the end.

WHY: In a general sense it seems:

1. the manmade cliff gives them cover to do more - and it isn't over

2. the "end" must be nearer because of this extra attention they are paying to prices

3. it just takes more effort to accomplish the same move ( we rebound quicker / don't go down as far)

4. The PTB have decided volatility is the new way to make money at the same time

Help me or take this and publish with comment and corrections - thanks a lot

Nigel Black Byzantium
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:32pm

@Byzantium

"MSM, The Fed, the cartel, they are all one."

You forgot to include the Gubermint and SCOTUS

Chevy Thunder
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:34pm

The reason my tone is sharp

The reason my tone is sharp is because you're screwing with peoples' lives and finances, Turd.

Either the "hot, explosive and historic" story based on unsubstantiated insider information was pure bullshit, or it was just completely WRONG. Either way, you're responsible to your readers when they make financial decisions based on your trusted analysis, whether you think so or not, and regardless of what the fine print in your disclaimer says. How many of your readers had to defend themselves and apologize to their friends and family over the holidays for passing on your "insider" knowledge, only to find their net wealth deteriorate over time? How many of your readers have put all their wealth into silver expecting massive returns, only to sell at a loss each month to pay bills? The magnitude of dis-information and discredited conspiracy that is mongered around here doesn't do anybody any good. And furthermore, to hide behind the "on a long enough timeline, it'll eventually happen" defense, doesn't cut it; on a long enough timeline, everything happens.

If you wish to be taken seriously, be honest (not hyperbolic) and recognize that your financial "advice" has consequences to peoples' lives. I'm not trying to be a troll, but sometimes you need to be shaken by the collar rather than have an entire forum of "I'll believe anything you say" readers. Oh, and lastly, if you truly had insider information that you passed around, you do realize you'd be arrested for it, right? That's how I know it was all BULLSHIT and just for clicks.

comrade nooni
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:36pm

Red Pills

Caution!

Once the red pill is swallowed the bell will be rung and you can't un-ring it!

balz
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:39pm

Chevy Thunder

Thank you for your comment. It's so lame and pathetic that a bottom must be in.

Turd never told anyone what to do. If you're not intelligent enough to take an advice and use your money carefully, then you are the only one to blame.

Nuff said. Go away if you don't like it here.

daveyboy
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:41pm

Believe me Chevy. the moment

Believe me Chevy. the moment you started this, he could have banned your ip address, but he didn't. Inside information was clearly an overstated remark, but it alluded to the fact that the analysts on the ground were foreseeing some kind of potential explosive move and given the merits of it, Turd became overly confident. The overconfidence emenated from his bias in favour of the metals anyway and again, if you base your decisions on one persons view, however well intended that person's view is, then you are an idiot. Every investment is a risk and if people cannot recognise that, then they are in la la land.

mendolover
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:43pm

Question #5

Happy New Year Turd and to all -

Question #5 - I hope you had the rhetoric dial cranked up on that one!

ancientmoney ¤
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:43pm

@DPH

Regarding Fed minutes, mope, MSM/Fed/banker cabal:

The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is coming upon us. The above set of PTB know this. Great volatility must be used to keep everyone off balance, as they aren't quite ready yet.

Everytime it looks a cinch that metals will roar/dollar flop, new and more powerful mope, spin, manipulations all come to the fore. PMs are Triffin goods. As silver approached $50, a whole bunch of newbies jumped onboard (read the posts here) . Slam!!! Now, you won't so readily tell your sons to buy silver--mission accomplished!

It is all a giant show, one they want you to watch. Do not leave early to do anything constructive with your life. No, stay here, as we will take care of you. "You are in good hands with All-Statism."

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain, look at me, the all-powerful Oz!!!

Bad things must happen to allow them to close the banks. The people must beg them to do something, to save them. It is all in the script. Volatility, no safe investments, run-away food prices (those greedy farmers!!), silver hoarders, and gun-owners; all BAD. Government, Gooooood!

erewenguy
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:49pm

Wealth preservation

"Junk gold" is worth about 80 times face value.

90% junk silver is worth about 21 times face value. I commonly pulled silver out of change when I was a kid.

Junk copper Lincoln cents are worth about 2.4 times face value. Yeah, I have a stash.

It's about wealth preservation. Although I get a thrill watching my stash increase in fiat terms, I know that life will really suck when the big reset takes place.

Its not just metals. Central banks are doing all they can do to keep the lid on all commodities. God's work, you know.

Oh, and how I wish that I pulled the trigger when silver was down 4.5% this morning.

ancientmoney ¤
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:49pm

@DPH

oops.

thisismynewname
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:51pm

More CNBC S$%#

CNBC - I have it on, but generally don't pay attention until Rick S. starts talking, or if I want some comedy, I turn up the sound when LIEsman or Piss-On-Me start talking - but the sound was up and they continued to bash gold. They repeated several times (x10? x15?) that gold has been down 6 weeks in a row and that was the longest losing streak since 2004.

Anyway - Peter Schiff came on and they all laughed at him while he pointed out that gold has gone up 12 of the past 12 years - which you can't say about stocks. They laughed at how ridiculous he was as they wrapped up the segment - then had some flunky throw a chart up and point out that gold was going to $1400.

Again - WTF? Seriously - first they say worst week for silver in the past 8 years (what was it? 10%?) - and now gold bashing? Silver fell 20+% the 1st week of May 2011. WTF!&&!^^%%@%^! I'm not going to pull up the charts - but I'm sure there have been several weeks that have been worse - in terms of percent, dollars, sentiment, WTF?!??!??!??!

I can't recall when the MOPE was so in your face anti PM, with bad facts, and made up charts. They're predicting severe declines because gold and silver both failed several key support levels - BUT THEY HAVEN'T - WTF?!???!?!

tpbeta
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:51pm

@Chevy Thunder

I believe you have half a point. Turd has earned enough trust that some people would take the HEH on trust. They would believe there was a good chance of the Comex defaulting. On the other hand, taking such things on trust and sinking money on that basis makes those people idiots in my view.

But it is also perfectly reasonable to have expected PMs to do well in the period October 2012 to now, even ignoring the HEH and the pumping book-talking nonsense that so many lap up. It's not Turd's fault that didn't happen. You can't blame him if you're underwater, though you can think less of him for being wrong. A lot of people were.

SIlverbee
Jan 4, 2013 - 5:57pm

FWIW my prediction at 8.15 this morning was not too shabby

An up day (well I meant from then rather than asian opening) finish as high as $30.50 or slightly below. It finished $30.18 not bad me thinks.

Pure guess though, and in a way a guess is likely to be more accurate than basing it on anything real since it is all manipulated and head faked.

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