Travel Day

Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 136


Katie Rose · Jan 4, 2013 - 2:32am

My Mom's Dream

I'm blessed with an 87 year old Mom who has prophetic dreams. They usually are dreams of warning, and growing up we learned to pay attention to her dreams. Ignoring her dreams would prove to be very foolish on our part. sad

One of the recent posts reminded me of a dream that really impacted her.

She was in a medical doctor's office. There was no receptionist and very few patients. There had been some kind of financial calamity, and the medical schools had all closed. Her doctor was elderly. He had a few younger former medical students who he was training. According to her he was a good, kind man, who used vitamins and other means of healing - not just pharmaceutical drugs.

He came into the waiting room to tell her she was next. He asked if she had anything to pay him with or give him as trade. She showed him a few "junk silver" coins and he was elated!!!! He called in his interns and they looked at the coins. There was a great celebration, as they knew they could buy food with them to feed their families.

She woke up at this point, startled that so few coins could mean such a difference for her health, and the well being of the doctor's families.

Given what I know about my Mom's dreams and how they usually come true at some point, I would urge all of us to not sell our entire stack. There just may be a time when a few coins can make a real difference. heart

I would say the major theme of her dreams over the last few years have been about a coming worldwide famine and the need to know how to grow food for our own families. She is a huge believer in having seeds and fertilizer on hand that will last more than a year. She's been through a Depression and a World War.

She is presently demanding that "we not procrastinate a second longer" and get our seeds ordered immediately. And she is also very grateful for the goats and their wonderful milk. wink

So please, don't sell your entire stack. In the future you may be very grateful for a few silver coins....

Silverman · Jan 4, 2013 - 2:43am

Monthly vs daily

Why I'm favouring monthly charts over daily charts? Because monthly charts gather more information than daily charts. So only following daily and hourly charts is suicide itself. It's like lightweight fighter vs heavyweight fighter. No matter how good you are his pure strength and size will overwhelm you. 

twippers · Jan 4, 2013 - 2:44am


i feel like we are the tiny country of silverville and the whole U S of A is waging war against us all.

how can you defeat an all-powerful giant?

rtabit · Jan 4, 2013 - 2:44am


Hmm, I guess makes sense, MACD as context, monthly slow stochastics as range, and cross over as possible entry. I mostly use just use stochastics as confirmation, never really studied them.

Anyways GC is in critical area in both weekly and monthly.

GC Weekly:

GC Monthly:

Missiondweller · Jan 4, 2013 - 2:48am

how can you defeat an all-powerful giant?

One gold or silver coin at a time.

Sit tight and let the economy bring everything to you. Its not a question of if, but when. You just have to look at the math.

They can never stop printing and they can never raise rates. I'm not sure what the next currency regime will look like but I have no doubt the transition will be easier for those of us with gold and silver.

thurd aye · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:03am

Celtic blessing on you all.

May the road rise to meet you,
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
The rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May God hold you in the palm of his hand.

May God be with you and bless you:
May you see your children's children.
May you be poor in misfortune,
Rich in blessings.
May you know nothing but happiness
From this day forward.

May the road rise up to meet you
May the wind be always at your back
May the warm rays of sun fall upon your home
And may the hand of a friend always be near.

May green be the grass you walk on,
May blue be the skies above you,
May pure be the joys that surround you,
May true be the hearts that love you.


indosil · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:13am


So what could be the possible lows for Silver & Gold..going by your could be $25 for Silver & what about Gold?

thurd aye · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:17am

I think that ''silver army''

I think that ''silver army'' is likely referring to the SLA. Although it could apply here I suppose if 'Turd's Army' was mobilized.

Kenscott · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:29am

Thank You - Will Likely Get Some Morgans If Possible

Everyone who responded, I thank you for you good wishes. I really do not wish to sell, but sometimes one must do what must be done to survive.

Most of what I have is higher end sterling pieces. I will likely sell the best on the Bay and the send the remaining pieces to a smelting company. I have heard Midwest Refineries is likely the best choice though I am open to suggestions.

As I said earlier, I hope to build some grocery supplies and hopefully purchase some medical insurance. Also, if enough is gained, I would like to reinvest in some decent Morgan Silver dollars. Personally, they are my favorite silver coin and they tend to hold a solid numismatic value as well.

S Roche · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:37am


just closed shorts and gone long gold...with tight stops

Edit 3.37am: T/p now flat until spot gold clears $1,648

thurd aye · Jan 4, 2013 - 3:52am

''My garlic “cocktail,” then,

''My garlic “cocktail,” then, is as follows.

Three cloves of garlic

1 Tbls of red wine

1 Tbls of vinegar

1 Tbls of olive oil

Blend well in a blender.

Add 1/4 cup hot water.

Let stand for 3 hours. Do not strain. Add one-third of this to a cup of hot water. Take another dose every 3-6 hours until it is all gone.

On paper this sounds a little like drinking salad dressing, but I find this to be a pleasant stimulating tonic with a sharp taste. Raw garlic cloves upset my intestines, but this does not. '' ;O))

erewenguy · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:14am

Nice silver smackdown tonight

Nice smackdown tonight. No worries, just another buy opportunity coming up. My last large purchase was in the $26 range and I'd like another chance to fish in that pond again.

Daily pain aside, silver on the weekly looks like it might be carving out the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders which is bullish. All bets are off with a break of previous lows of $26.80.

Patience. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent if you are not careful.

erewenguy · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:22am


Kenscott - just something for you to consider -

When you do need to raise money, a good rule of thumb is to "sell the crap and keep the best" if possible. If done consistently, you can build up quality wealth assets.

MUDbone · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:28am

Alf Fields

Obviously a decline to below $1636 would render this analysis valueless and we would have to reconsider the situation

Silverman · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:32am

Gold bottom

I don't predict bottoms or tops. I just wait for indicators to reverse. 

S Roche · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:34am


I've now gone "all in" long Spot Gold with stops at 1635... we'll see.

Edit: However, Alf uses the London PM Fixing, 10.00am NY, so he ignores intraday fluctuations...we'll still see!

MUDbone · Jan 4, 2013 - 4:48am

S Roche

Good luck to you! Kudos for posting your trading in real time!

achmachat · Jan 4, 2013 - 5:05am

my real time trading:

very simple: I skipped breakfast this morning so that I don't throw up in my mouth while the monkeys are at their game again.

saves me food money.

edit: I'll just be re-aligning my scopes today; that should be the best way to keep me Zen today.

philipat · Jan 4, 2013 - 5:22am

@Swiss Drug Guy

That may be premature. The Re-vamped ADP (With Zandi et al conspiring to replicate the BLS data) projected a BETTER than expected 220K Jobs. I know it is ALL B/S BUT, this probably provides a pretext for another (Final??) smash down for PM's. Perhaps below 1600/28.50.

SIlverbee · Jan 4, 2013 - 5:30am

The CFTC has been presented with the facts and done nothing

Here's what should be done.

Package ALL the evidence into a MS folder.

Get as many MSM and non MSM email addresses as possible world wide particularly in countries which would benefit from the propaganda.

Cue them all up (avoiding group email folders so they don't see who else gets the info) with the folder attached.

Explain the CFTC have received and not acted.

Press Send!

By doing this then:-

The EE will not have enough time to quash.

The media love an exclusive and will not wait for editors/EE go ahead or if they do so will still leak out.

No time for collusion or manipulation of the story.

Maximum impact.

CFTC will be forced to respond.

Am I too naive?

The Green Manalishi · Jan 4, 2013 - 5:37am

What do you reckon when the BLSBS comes out?

More screwed or less more screwed?

indosil · Jan 4, 2013 - 5:58am


Dow Futures down by a Single Point......Gold down almost $45....Silver almost $1.5.....

The Green Manalishi The Green Manalishi · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:03am

I'm going for

..more or less screwed either way.

boatman · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:15am


ever heard the story of david and goliath?

Groaner · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:22am

Just when you thought they could not sink any lower.

DR Paul Craig Roberts said it best. " The USA is the most corrupt government in ALL of human history"

Groaner · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:32am

It was so nice of the CME for lowering margins on gold

so that they could suck more longs in for the planned hit.

Since when does gold and silver need any QE to go up? This is nonsense. Thsi happens everytime right before the NFP.s

The JPM.s HSB.s smash the metals, this time they got help from the BS from the FED.

Buy the DIP!

El Gordo · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:37am

I'm still amazed

at how many people still seem to depend on or count on government to take care or or assist in solving problems, detecting and preventing fraud, dealing with consumer protection issues, and the like. As Senator Schumer likes to say to Texas about the space shuttle "Forget about it." You are on your own. Accept responsibility for your actions and do what it takes to take care of yourself and you may, just may, come out of this OK - otherwise, just be prepared to go stand in line and wait your turn. 

boatman · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:44am

show me a group of homo sapiens

and i will show you fraud and corruption.

PART OF human nature.

but there are other parts.

Groaner · Jan 4, 2013 - 6:51am

I dont see any support right here at @ 1630?

does it matter when you have such blatant manipulations?

The FED cant stop QE

tpbeta · Jan 4, 2013 - 7:01am


It could be the wind whistling between the ears of the folk who thought QE to Infinity meant PMs were going up.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, 12 min 33 sec ago
by Nana, 44 min 14 sec ago
by Nana, 1 hour 26 min ago
by AgAuMan, 1 hour 51 min ago
by Thomas More, 1 hour 52 min ago