Travel Day

386
Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  386 Comments

department of truth
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:20pm

JimWillie Interview request!

I would just LOVE to hear what Jim Willie has to say about all this SH*T!

I think his latest public post more or less sums up the current situation (see https://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1356642000.php ) Here is an excerpt:

POWERFUL CORRUPTION INERTIA

Corruption Inertia is a principle firmly believed in when Jackass forecasts must be made. The corruption will continue with firm immutable momentum, without an external force acting as agent of change. At times, this is simple science. When colleagues introduce hope and what must be, the OFF button is engaged quickly here in my office. Their views are out of touch with reality. Corruption will persist as long as the Syndicate continues to hold power. It will remain the constant while the USDept Justice remains, while the USDept Treasury remains, while the US Regulators remain, even while the US debt rating agencies remain. They all support the current system. They are all subject to momentum pressures. Only an external force will result in change. When the USDollar is further isolated, that change will come. To expect change from the inside due to internal forces is lunatic, kind of like expecting an alcoholic to change on his own from an awakening.

rtabit
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:24pm

@tmosley

By that logic I should not order anything, because there is a risk that the company selling whatever I ordered goes bankrupt and doesn't deliver whatever I ordered. So I guess the price of everything unless it physically in front of you at time of purchase will approach zero. It's possible Provident goes bankrupt and steals my order, should I not order any metals online because of this possibility?

old tradesman
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:24pm

O/T after looking at my images

Im a stacker. (https://www.google.com/search?q=old+tradesman/tfmetals&hl=en&tbo=d&rls=c...

and here it is for all to see (thank god there only tracking this sight)

MUDbone
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:31pm

tmosely

Where in the article did Jim Sinclair say to buy from MF Global? He said to contact JB Slear and have his company set it up. If Turd does a podcast or interview with JB Slear and he says he has problems getting physical metals from the Comex then I will believe him! Didn't Turd get all his money back from MF Global?

I agree with rtabit's post above me as well.

https://www.jsmineset.com/2008/10/31/delivery-process-for-comex-gold-and-silver/

Grigeo old tradesman
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:38pm

Google images

What comes up (at least in part) are random images that appeared on pages that you visited at TF Metals. I can say in no uncertain terms, at least half the images that came up for me I never clicked on, and a couple I never saw before (might have even been posted by an Ignored User, either that or I was scrolling real fast).

"thank god there only tracking this sight".... nah, looks to me like they are monitoring every key stroke.

SilverTree
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:41pm
tmosley rtabit
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:43pm

rtabit: If you are in the

rtabit:

If you are in the business of dealing with crooks and thieves, then you deserve whatever you (don't) get. The COMEX is KNOWN to have behaved in this manner.

Deal with them all you want. You have been warned.

old tradesman
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:43pm

@Grigeo

If so I've got alot of esplaining to do.(its not a typo)

Air Garcia
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:46pm

MF Global

FWIW i didnt get all my money back from MF Global - and my account was via ft.wealth and jb slear. he had nothing to do with it and fought to get our / his money back. he is also about $75. per trade btw.

tmosley MUDbone
Jan 3, 2013 - 11:46pm

MUDbone, If you want to have

MUDbone,

If you want to have you money stolen, that is your business. That is what will happen to you if you try to play with these guys. I'm sure there is just one cockroach. Er, two cockroaches.

MUDbone
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:02am

tmosley

I have no intentions of buying anything off the Comex. A group of people have been talking about pooling money to buy and take delivery of a silver contract which I think is an excellent idea. That is the only way to end the manipulation. Are you an expert in dealing with the Comex? JB Slear is and Jim Sinclair recommends him. If someone like him says to avoid the Comex then I will believe it!

old tradesman
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:03am
Grigeo old tradesman
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:07am

@ old tradesman

Yea, I hear you. Considering anything I go to is pretty much politically incorrect in the extreme.... No surprises, whatever.

I will repay, says the Lord. They can make all the plans they want, the last say is not theirs. Plans are in place for them, and any "victory" will be very short lived.

Anonymous Big Buffalo
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:09am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

old tradesman
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:13am

@grigeo

Full disclosure! But the masses will not wake. Until its too late!

jezfry
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:14am

Bond Seesaw

We mustn't forget that when the yields on bonds rise the value falls - and vice versa. Bond investors have had a good ride for many years as rates have come down and values have risen commensurately. We are almost certainly at or just past a major inflection point where the opposite will occur and bond investors will lose money if they stay invested as rates rise.

Why will rates rise?

  • Existing and new QE filters through into the money supply
  • Fed stops or reduces bond purchases

If investors sense they are going to lose money what will they do? Of course they will sell, thus reducing demand for bonds further and driving the yields higher. As more investors sense the writing on the wall they will sell causing a snowball effect otherwise known as a bubble bursting.

The Fed has to keep purchasing to stop this from happening (even though it will happen anyway) but knows more purchases will eventually equal higher rates due to the inflation it precipitates. What to do? Test the water by hinting purchases may stop and see what happens. Check.

The cold and hard fact is that the Fed cannot exit it's bond buying programme because the result of doing so would be the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. Perhaps through rhetoric and support of the MSM they can deflate the bubble ever so slightly and persuade a little more money into stocks. Check.

The Republicans conceded some tax cuts but are now less likely to be so accommodating when it comes to the spending cuts so discussions over the debt ceiling - which will be infinitely more significant than the fiscal cliff - has the real chance of being the moment this comes to a head.

What's the Fed to do? It will be forced to print more money to keep rates low and of course the great irony is that the more they print the more they will have to print to keep rates low - and so it goes. Check.

The next two months will very likely be the point where Fed policies come unstuck. Bond investors will take fright, interest rate swaps will head underwater rapidly. If the bond and derivative markets change direction at the same time not even the mighty Fed will have any control.

It will be Check Mate.

Anonymous
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:14am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

ReachWest
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:17am

$One Trillion Timmy Coin

Happy New Year to my fellow Turdites.

So far - 2013 is about as fun as 2012 was... Anyway - I will continue stacking Metals and have resigned myself to the fact that my children or yet-to-be conceived Grandchildren will ultimately appreciate my efforts at some date in the future. Who the hell knows when that will be!? I sure don't.

In the meantime - according to this article over at the loony Business Insider - We will have little to worry about when Geithner or his successor mint a few $1.o Trillion Platinum coins. At that point - its all sunshine and lollipops. SIMPLE. ALL PROBLEMS SOLVED.

Hmm..

Big Buffalo Anonymous
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:18am

@ onewileyz

Submitted by onewileyz on January 4, 2013 - 12:09am.

Really.....grass seed? Really?

Yeah man, how else am I to keep up with the Jones?

surfeitndearth Grigeo
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:22am

@ Grigeo, OT

Ditto completely. And I refuse to live in fear. So Fuck 'um.

old tradesman
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:25am

You want to know how to take it down

take it down by making them believe your the one holding the paper! (Under multiple brokerages for delivery). And when they find out your not, they just bet against them self. Big win! We would be better off saying its a go! Than doing It! The algos would go crazy!!!!

El Gordo
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:53am

Here's hoping...

...Blythe keeps those prices knocked down for a few days. I'd really like to get my hands on a big batch of those 2013 ASE's cheap when they come out.

thurd aye
Jan 4, 2013 - 12:59am

"Welcome to the club. It's a

"Welcome to the club.

It's a big club.

And we're not at all exclusive."........But we're not SHEEPLE ,thank you.

Mickey
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:21am

permutations

remember then bernanke was saying we cannot depend on monetary policy--and Chuck Schumer told Bernanke we needed Bernanke to do Monetary policy to help since fiscal policy will not happen?

This gets simple-it looks like the real book accrual deficit is 5-7 Trillion--that cannot be fixed by taxes.

choice is to either inflate, or cut just not the 1.3 tril in cash flow deficit but also figure a way to cut the whole 5-7 Tril book deficit. Most of that is entitlements . We cut entitlements we have war in the streets.


we cannot cut 300 bil a year out of deficit--how we gonna cut 5 trillion (or 6 or 7)

Pretty soon all those accruals become cash flow as the bills for all the promises come due. Its going to get ugly.

IMO either way hard assets win-just different routes to get there.

thurd aye
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:40am

doc and garlic

Anti-Pseudomonadas.Now that's what I call a bonus.Does it stop the world tours as well? ;O))

ed
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:44am

Random comments

The saying "don't fight the fed" is equivalent to "buying gold is torturous". You'll win in the long term but short term will be hell. Opposite of stocks maybe.

Yamada on KWN is sensible and interesting. Seems fairly neutral.

Alf Field on Santa's website interesting.

Wonder where the Japanese are putting their depreciating yen? Perhaps AUD where you get 3% interest.

I'm not looking forward to the powers that be making an announcement that is genuinely gold negative (even if mildly so). Even though QE might be baked in, clearly a lot of rotten eggs can be cracked while preparing the batter.

ivars
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:51am

Yesterdays GSR looks alright,

Yesterdays GSR looks alright, but we know what happened after that. GSR moved up and is still at 55,7, new high.

So take it with a grain of salt.

Lest see what open/close brings.

Lamenting Laverne
Jan 4, 2013 - 2:02am

This does not seem "normal" to me

1 - The timing of the smash is off - which it also was at a point in late December as well, if I remember correctly.

2 - The message from the FOMC during US hours was "SOME Fed officials says to end QE in 2013" on Bloomberg. During Asian hours it suddenly changed to "MOST Fed officials says to end QE in 2013" and "QE likely to end in 2013". Coincidence in the change of tone? I find it utterly strange that they were allowed/asked to pump this story at all - risking to upset the bond market in the process.

3 - Euronews reported today that the Vatican was cash-only today as the banks in the Vatican state had been ordered to terminate electronic transactions and close the ATM's. I understood that it was Deutsche Bank running the ATMs. The reason was stated to be that the Vatican state had not complied with anti-fraud measures. Who could order such a shut down, I wonder? Especially considering that the Vatican is regarded by some conspiracy people to be at the heart of the British Banking Cabal and not a part of the EU. Very strange!.

4 - Reports that US banks are being cyber attacked.

5 - A Scandinavian newspaper reports on the front e-page today, that the US was developing a Tsunami weapon during WWII based on bombs being set off a short distance offshore. The program was terminated because the a-bomb proved effective enough. Why publish that now? Fukushima followers would probably agree, that this is odd.

Another article in the same paper covers what to be aware of in relation to the US in 2013. It mentions the obvious stories of international interest, like the second cliff and the debt ceiling negotiations - but the largely domestic gun control issue is featured prominently as well.

6 - Policeman is featured on radio show stating that Martial Law in the US is 30-45 days out. Normally I don't listen to those crying wolf about ML anymore, but in the context of the other strange happenings, maybe I should this time.

7 - Geithner will leave office at the end of January - regardless if replacement has been found!. Right before the debt ceiling fireworks. Also very strange. Most normal people would stay on for a couple of months to finish their work, if the house was in risk of crashing down - but not one of the highest positions in civil service? Does he know something we don't yet know - or has he been deemed a liability in negotiations with foreign creditors, that is likely to happen during the process to avoid outright foreign investor revolt?

8 - Mario Monti stepping down from his administratively appointed spot in Italy. Why now?

9 - France possibly backing down on the 75% tax after much ado about it - Putin publicly offering Depardieu residency.

10 - Queen used as pin-up girl in London gold vault publicity stunt.

11 - 90% of Spanish Social Security fund now invested in Spanish Bonds - only 10% to go. Population vapors are ripe for explosion, if a renewed bond crisis result in substantial visible losses to pensioners. Inflation is better - more stealthy - at first at least.

12 - Most of us like Kyle Bass here. I know that I am pimping my own talking point from back in May a bit here, but in the last video he mentioned the new two tier Euro, and although he also hastened to say that he didn't believe that it would happen, I believe that he actually misspoke by even mentioning it. To be precise, he said that France would not be a part of the Northern Euro. Jim Willie has said the same earlier, and if I recall correctly, FOFOA has mentioned a European banking source talking about a Northern gold related Euro as well.

Also, many American analysts pound on the fact that European banks have not yet been re-capitalized in opposition to the American banks, which makes me think why exactly that is, when one of the deadline lists on ZH stated that bank recaps should have been completed sometime mid 2012. Are they or are they not? If not - could the reason be, that the recap will happen as a part of a currency split and debt restructure?.

13 - Stratejema states above that Japan will buy EUR and USD currency denominated assets to weaken the yen, which could support the end of US QE in 2013. I humbly disagree. The divestment of an aging population going on to live off pension savings in Japan requires someone else to pick up the slack. The policy change from deflation to inflation will reduce profitability for institutional investors as well according to Kyle Bass and accelerate the lack of demand.

That means that the BOJ has quite a bit of refunding to handle from domestic bondholders before they can continue buying from the Fed. In fact, earlier predictions of the breaking point of the entire system has been that Japan would have to start selling out of their Treasuries to fund the domestic bond buying once the Japanese bondholders started to reach pension age in great numbers and hence starting to cash in their bonds. That time is said to be now.

14 - The IMF/BIS people re-evaluate the composition of the SDR basket every 5 years. Next time is January 2015. I have been wondering where Sinclair had his "latest 2015 for fireworks" prediction from. I think it has something to do with the SDR. Could it be that everyone (including China and Russia) are positioning and executing currency and bond plans at an accelerated pace to be ready to conquer the seats and % allocations of the next SDR basket? If so, the general markets should start sniffing out that fact and position accordingly within a reasonable timeframe... I guess.

As usual - sorry for lack of brevity.... and a Happy New Year to all!

Silverman
Jan 4, 2013 - 2:19am

Monthly silver chart

There's three of them falling on monthly charts. MACD which trend indicator. MACD falling is trend is falling. During this time it's more comfortable shorting than buying. Cause currently main trend is down. I can't tell how many months it will last. Next thing falling is monthly slow stochastics. Slow stochastics is not trend indicator. It's range indicator. It will tell the range of price movement during trending market. Now stochastics at 56 area. It has a long way to go to become oversold. Usually it's under 20 to become oversold area. Also it can stay under 20 area for many days depending on the situation. Last thing is monthly Williams R. It pretty much follows price itself. I just use it for confirmation.

Now I will explain why I shorted silver at 30.90 yesterday. I know monthly and weekly major indicators are already moving downward. But I need good position to hold. I took my position based on daily slow stochastics. Daily slow stochastics for gold was already crossed and pointing down. So silver pretty much follows the gold's action. That was a sell signal for me.

El Gordo
Jan 4, 2013 - 2:25am

Credit analysis can be simple

Want to forget about the talking heads, credit rating agencies, government officials and the like and just try to figure out things for yourself. Well, here are a few simple questions that you can ask, and based on your own personal experiences, you can draw your own conclusions as to the overall state of our affairs, here in the US, or just about anywhere else. If you enjoy listening to all their spewings, just ignore this post.

What's the total package of debt? $16+ trillion. Additional off balance sheet debt (loan guarantees, etc.) infinite. Sources of revenue? taxes and fees currently equivalent to about 40% of annual expenses. Other sources of cash? Borrowing and counterfeiting (printing) (60% of expenses). Population approx 350 million. Per capita debt? 16 trillion divided by 350 million - say 50 thousand for round numbers. Look around. How many of your neighbors, their kids, parents, friends, and the like could come up with an extra $50K real fast to cover their share? Who would have to come up with their share if they can't come up with it? How much more are they going to owe next year based on historical information available to you? How many more years do you think they can keep it up? Do you see any effort to get spending under control, or do you see additional untapped revenue sources available. What more do you need to know?

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