Travel Day

386
Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
76%
NO
24%
Total votes: 173

  386 Comments

agNau · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:58pm

@T

I am favoring the weekly as well, as posted a couple times here. I am thinking wicks below about $29.50 area. But I feel that area should hold. Trend line falls there, and one other indicator supports that area.( Stated this before.) And as I post, we are sittin on the line. Hope she holds.

· Jan 3, 2013 - 10:07pm

airplane wifi

So I'm on the final leg of my flight home and I can't tell you how sick of it all I am.

I get away for 10 days to relax and decompress. On my way home, I try to get back up to speed and I'm greeted with the ridiculous SPIN and MOPE about The Fed ending QE∞ before it even begins. This is absolute and utter nonsense, so ridiculous that it doesn't even merit a comment. Besides, Santa already commented on it and there's no reason for me to add anything extra:

January 3, 2013, at 6:07 pm  by 

Dear CIGAs,

Such an announcement has been part of QE either from MSM or some Fed board member since it began. The implication of stopping QE is so dire to the economy that it is in a practical sense impossible. When gold was being sold by central banks during the 1970s market announcements were made constantly with the bias to depress metals.

There is no way that the implications and consequences of what has been done up to now can be talked or manipulated away. There is no practical way that QE can cease here or in Euroland without a total and final collapse of the financial system. Just go back to the IMF report on OTC derivatives I posted this morning. If QE ceases, the US bond market collapses and the Fed must debt monetize all required debt, which means if QE stops, it starts up again immediately and in a crisis mode.

I have to admit that if you have been a reader here for any length of time you should know this without asking me. The pressure that people unload on me during any gold reaction is downright mean.

The statement that QE can stop is simply MOPE. QE cannot stop or the world ends as you know it.

Please print this out and post it on your computer because every time the long cycle guy repeats his year old bear gold price prediction or the Fed says anything about stopping QE, you all go wild. It is embarrassing really.

If you do not understand what you are in, why are you in it?

Truman said it all when he said if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

The Federal Reserve has no practical option to end QE without ending the economic world for decades to come. Should that actually occur in some parallel universe, only gold will protect those citizens from the collapse of the by-default reserve currency. I am sure I have written this at least 200 times.

Love, Santa

I am so sick and tired of the bullshit and the lies. I am sick and tired of the rampant corruption and greed. I am sick and tired of the manipulation, not just of the PMs but fucking everything. Have you read this? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/spot-oddest-after-hours-market-so-far It all just makes me nauseous.

And, finally, to the criminally corrupt CFTC, FUCK YOU! You've been presented with everything you could ever want in order to prove manipulation and yet you dawdle and stall. You protect your criminal banker overlords while the masses, whom you are charged with "protecting", get continually screwed. That the bankers and traders are soulless criminals is to be expected. One day soon, they will pay for their sins. But you, the two-faced, lying and deceiving bureaucrat/public servant, your duplicity and deviance will earn you a special place when retribution is finally served. 

Just keep buying the dips.

ancientmoney MUDbone · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:07pm

@MUDbone re: paper price

That was then, this is now, and I'm talking about the future. 

Trust me, the paper price will not only approach zero, but paper trading will be halted, SLV will be shut down, and that will be the end of paper silver (and gold).

foggyroad · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:17pm

Breaking Even.

Precious metals are the best way to preserve some wealth for the little guys.

If you have access to inside information or information before others have it, like the Gang of 535 do, you can front run the markets and make money.

And they do!

If you can scalp with algo's, and know where all the stops and the bids/asks, you can front run and make money.

And the Morgue and Squid et. al. do!

Sadly, for those who only have their wits and limited pocket depth, you are but a slow moving 'ducky' in a shooting gallery, with a 'snowballs chance in hell' of making any consistent positive returns, after retail fee's, currency exchange fee's, etc.

It is a muggs' game, for rubes' only.

Scum, Thieves, Crooks, dishonorable Thugs and Bullies run the the game.

Consumer protection Alphabet Agencies don't give a crap and have given up even pretending to give a crap.

Regulators, Enforcement agencies/Courts care only to protect the Big Shots.

Screw Main street, Shmoes, Farmers, Small Business Hedgers.

Stealing from Grannies and Orphans, tough luck You're on your Own.

Stacking PM's is the only protection long term available to the little Guy.

It is not a trade, its insurance.

EDIT.. TF I gave you a hat tip, I would give ten if I could, the criminals are on both sides of the counter now a days!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KI_0tQdEA5k

Stratajema · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:19pm

Re: Fed Announcement is BS

>>No one will ever buy bonds except them.. MOPE they bomb after comex closes, how convenient<<

You are mistaken. Japan will likely print massive amounts of Yen and buy USD and EUR denominated debt to devalue the Yen. Not a wise move, it's destructive, but the Japanese government is suicidal in everything it does of importance (e.g. management of Fukishima and nuclear reactors)

Big Buffalo · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:19pm

Nothing happening...

at least for the past 45 minutes...

Started shopping to add back some silver coins previously sold and started thinking if I should wait a bit or just buy or whatever, blah blah blah. Of course, I, too, am just as frustrated as many are here. Reading stuff on Zerohedge and TFMetals and I try my best to think opposite of the "group think" potential.

I have to say though, taking a bird's eye view of things, I always come back to the basics of the debt ceiling and the deficit. We continue to add to our debt, we continue to loss buying power with our dollars. Come to think of it, what currency in the world has maintained it's buying power? The middle class is f'ed. This just sucks. It was so much easier 3 years ago when I was single and blowing $500 a weekend on girls and booze. Now, I buy silver coins, ovens, grass seed, and blueberry bushes. wtf. (I'm actually happy about it.) Anyway, it was just easier not knowing.

But...now I know...i rack my mind trying to figure out what and how to invest in order to build and/or maintain buying power. Man, I am actually concerned, truly concerned.

Don't know where this is really going, just frustrated.

cpnscarlet · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:22pm

Thanks Turd

Couldn't have put it better myself. The world has become a ball of crap and the people aren't much better.

Dyna mo hum foggyroad · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:22pm

Foggyroad

Bravo well said!!

So It Goes · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:26pm

Uh-oh - gold eagle sales - they tell the truth

According to the US Mint

https://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=...

The sales of gold eagles for Jan. 2011 was 133.5 koz.

For Jan. 2012 was 127 koz.

AND FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF JAN 2013

57 THOUSAND OZ!!!!!!!!!!!

That is about 19 thousand ounces average per day!!!!!!!! A world record!!!!!

I'm not saying this is going to continue, but it is amazing.

Keep stacking.

foggyroad · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:32pm
Kenscott · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:36pm

Selling Making More Sense as Raids Just Continue

QE3 has not led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver. Reckless spending, uncontrollable unemployment, and a rotting world economy has not led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver. In fact, it does not seem that anything has led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver.

Each time it should rise, a raid or world event takes place to drive it back down. I do not believe the Cartel is afraid at all. I believe they drive the price at will and will continue to do so for some time. If they have not been stopped at this point, just show me some solid evidence they will likely be stopped anytime in the near future. I honestly wish I was wrong, but I just do not feel this is the case.

So, seeing how I am not wealthy like many here seem to be, it is making more and more sense to sell my physical silver. I simply am not seeing the bright future for it though I truly wish I could. Being unemployed for over a year, I simply cannot afford for spot to go much lower for any long duration of time.

I will see if $32 or so can be reached and then likely sell the majority of my sterling. I need to put some grocery reserves back and hopefully get enough funds to obtain some medical insurance. I have been unemployed for over a year now and things are getting worse. 

R man J · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:42pm

As Santa said...

Wild fluctuations will come as they lose control. Unfortunately down 1st... When God created the Garden of Eden, He created gold and called it good...it has lasted for ages while paper has withered away, Genesis 2:11 "A river flowed out of Edn to water the garden, and there it divided to become four rivers . The name of the first is Pishon, it is the one that flowed around Havilah, where there is gold. And the gold of that land is good.." If the scripture says it is good, then I really don't care about paper price.

Be Prepared · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:44pm

Your Anchor in The Storm...

Happy New Year to all my fellow Turdites! It's been awhile since I last posted and thought I would reach out and wish you all the best. We are in for a rocky year. To say that we have gone further down the rabbit hole is merely just the beginning of the truth.... so we must keep cool and have our heads screwed on straight because it is to their advantage for us to imbibe their fear.

The PMs you bought last year, yesterday and may buy tomorrow are not going to make you rich. These holdings won't be an anchor until they are an anchor. In other words, the wild ride hasn't really begun regardless of how you feel like the ride has already... it hasn't really started.

Yet, when it starts... it will be quick and decisive and then full of many unknowns. It is during this period of unknowns that this decision to have PMs will be an anchor enabling you to stave off the tide... hopefully.

We all have much to learn and to be patient is a virtue which will be stretched thin in all of us. :-)

Yooper Rick · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:47pm

Reading back on pages 3&4 of

Reading back on pages 3&4 of this thread I came to a conclusion. Stock Canines is a classic example of a weak hand. Have you seen the chart for USG debt/gold. What do you think, USG debt will come down to close separation gap? There is no more ironclad relationship than debt/gold so don't let the "Mystery" of blatant price suppression scare you. It isn't rocket science. The debt will grow because it must. Gold will, sooner or later, move up to close the gap because that's just how it works.

old tradesman · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:50pm

check this out

go to google images, and put in you pseudonym/tfmetals. Mine has everything I've visited. 

rtabit · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:50pm

@joehappen

Stacking is an investment, when you bought did you expect to sell within two years? You bought at wrong time, can’t change that now, but there are worse things you could have invested in, and obviously better. Of course you shouldn’t have listened to people saying you must buy now, that’s your own fault, think for yourself, live and learn, consider it a life lesson. I’m not sure where you get 5-7 more years to break even from, why do you say that? Be patient, we are close, things take time to consolidate, people need to get used to these prices before they start buying again, it’s natural (well gold is natural anyways). Look at gold daily charts, 2004 peak in January, drops then consolidates for a total of about 20 months before next break out. May 2006 peak, drops and consolidates for about 16 months before next break out. March 2008 peak, drops and consolidates for about 18 months before next break out. September 2011 peak, has dropped and I think we are now in consolidation period. We are now in month 16, the next break out is coming, not sure when, but past history in this current gold bull market would tell us it’s going to be pretty soon. It’s an investment, be patient, and stop blaming other people for your own actions, you sound like a person who bought a subprime mortgage they knew they couldn’t afford that blamed the bank when they got foreclosed on because they sold it to you. Rather than complaining, do something useful, go measure just the consolidation period (after the drop) for each of those peaks, how long did they last, how long can we expect current consolidation period to last, how far into current consolidation period are we. Instead of just buying because we are under 30, use better logic in attempt to get best deal possible.

Be Prepared · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:52pm

@Kenscott - Always do what you must, my friend.

In order to meet your needs, you always need to do what you must. If that means that the stack must go, then make the best decision you can at the time you need to make it. Most of us are not rich and are struggling in similar and different ways. The moniker of this site.... "The End of the Keynesian Experiment" is there for a reason. Not so hidden in there is a lot of tough decisions that many of us will have to make along the way.

If you can, keep at least one piece of silver... even a silver dime or quarter... to remind you to rebuild, as resources allow, a new stack of insurance. What I have is not about getting rich... it is an insurance policy and a savings account in real money... anything extra is nice.

I wish you the best my friend... these are not easy times and I hope for calmer weather ahead for you. :-)

surfeitndearth Kenscott · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:58pm

@ Kennscot

Ditto. I hear you man. I'm in the same boat, more or less. The pumpers keep pumping but - they're almost always proved wrong. Downright depressing. I'd sooner they shut up and just 'let it ride.' We might be better of for it.

SnD

Rui · Jan 3, 2013 - 10:59pm

It's interesting they attacked b4 BLSBS

Were they preempting a rally or sth?

old tradesman · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:01pm
eyeswideopen · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:02pm

Your banking site down?

 Just received message from my bank.
Multiple banking websites currently down.

Blaming it on cyber attacks.

Be Prepared · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:03pm

We didn't Stop in the Nick of Time...

Forty-one dollars in tax increases for every one dollar in spending cuts and $400 Billion a year more added to the debt.....

old tradesman · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:03pm
foggyroad Kenscott · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:03pm

@ Kenscott

KS said...

"QE3 has not led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver. Reckless spending, uncontrollable unemployment, and a rotting world economy has not led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver. In fact, it does not seem that anything has led to a great increase in the price of gold and silver.

Each time it should rise, a raid or world event takes place to drive it back down. I do not believe the Cartel is afraid at all. I believe they drive the price at will and will continue to do so for some time. If they have not been stopped at this point, just show me some solid evidence they will likely be stopped anytime in the near future. I honestly wish I was wrong, but I just do not feel this is the case.

So, seeing how I am not wealthy like many here seem to be, it is making more and more sense to sell my physical silver. I simply am not seeing the bright future for it though I truly wish I could. Being unemployed for over a year, I simply cannot afford for spot to go much lower for any long duration of time.

I will see if $32 or so can be reached and then likely sell the majority of my sterling. I need to put some grocery reserves back and hopefully get enough funds to obtain some medical insurance. I have been unemployed for over a year now and things are getting worse. "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KS the whole point of these raids is to get the weak hands to sell, and give the impression that PM's are not a wise investment.

They will be proven to be wrong long term.

I think We can all agree on this.

Ultimately the decision to hold or sell remains with You, and your particular circumstances.

Food must be purchased, health must be maintained.

Do what you feel best, but if you don't need to sell your entire holdings to purchase these things, then consider only selling a portion.

Good luck with whatever decision you come to, I hope some work comes your way.

Best regards;

foggy

tmosley MUDbone · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:06pm

MUDbone: Then MF Global

MUDbone:

Then MF Global happened, and a bunch of people standing for delivery had everything stolen from them. Then it happened to another brokerage.

You will be next if you try that shit now. The COMEX is broken. Learn to live with it.

Headswim · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:11pm

Banks

Had a friend forward me this today. 'We promise it's internet Turr!'

A number of banks in the U.S., including PNC, are seeing an unusually high volume of traffic at their Internet connections. This volume of traffic is consistent with threatened cyber attacks on the U.S. banking system and is designed to cause access delays for legitimate internet customers. For several weeks, PNC has taken steps to block this traffic and maintain online and mobile banking access for the vast majority of its customers. In some cases, those measures also may have blocked access to a small percentage of legitimate PNC customers for an extended period. We sincerely apologize to those affected. 

For those having access issues, disruptions may be intermittent, so please try logging on again. You might also consider utilizing alternative banking methods, such as visiting your local branch, using a PNC ATM or calling 1-888-PNC-BANK (762-2265). Please know that even during an access disruption, any transfers or online bill payments already scheduled will continue to be processed. 

If you still cannot access the site, you may contact us for assistance on Twitter @PNCBank_Help (no account information please), or by calling 1-888-PNC-BANK (762-2265). Please be aware that given the current situation, you may experience longer than usual wait times. 

In the meantime, please be assured that PNC's website is protected by sophisticated encryption strategies that shield customer information and accounts. While this situation is an access issue and not an issue of account security, it is always important to remember to protect yourself by not sharing personal or financial information on any non-secure sites. Other cyber security tips can be found here.

Thank you for your patience as we continue to address these disruptions.

old tradesman · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:11pm
department of truth · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:12pm

some helpful platitudes

Hey, is it is always darkest when:

you go over the cliff?

you have your head up your ass??

when you go to sleep???

before it gets darker????

NO!! it's right before:

the PETRODOLLAR IS SUBSTITUTED FOR A BASKET OF CURRENCIES!!!

(or you run out of ammo!!)

Zoltan · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:13pm

@OT Google Images Search

Yep worked for me as well. Big Brother is watching you.

As far as the price action this has been SOP for years now. Measure your wealth in ounces my friends. Use the beatdowns to add to your stack. My stack is unaffected by the price action cause I don't sell into it. Some of you late to the game may be able to improve your DCA with this price action. Miners were taken to the woodshed as well.

Hope you enjoyed your vacation Turd.

Z

eyeswideopen · Jan 3, 2013 - 11:14pm
Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

randomness