Travel Day

Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 191


Stock_Canines · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:08pm

28 Handle

Tomorrow after better than expected BLS report - I think we are heading to test the lows from this summer. 2013 may get off to a rocky start.

meddle magic · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:14pm

I'll be able

to stomach this beat down better if the bonds sell off more, as a signal of higher rates coming.

pforth · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:16pm

This is unusual timing

It rarely waterfalls during this time of the night. Are they smashing it down to prep for a bullish report tomorrow? Or are insiders selling because there is going to be a bearish report. We can only guess.

Bill of Rights · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:16pm

Obama's Gun Ban List Is Out

Get them Muskets ready Boys and Girls...

Obama's Gun Ban List Is Out

cliff 567 dragonfly5 · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:17pm


I have had some serious burns in my career.

The best ointment that I ever used has called silverdine or dene.

It was a white paste with ground silver in it.

Mr. Fix · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:22pm


I have read in multiple places that colloidal silver can be used as an ointment, and for the conditions you mentioned, soaking a cotton ball with it, and taping it to the wound will be very effective. 

 I don't think holding a maple against your skin will do much, it's the free ions in the solution that are medically effective. 

Sandiaman · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:26pm


I'll vouch for silvadene. Had some serious burns and that stuff worked miracles.

philipat · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:28pm

Stay Rational

Because I just cannot see how the Fed can either stop QE or start to reduce its balance sheet (Mostly Treasuries and crap mortgage bonds acquired from the TBTF Banks in a back door bailout operation). I think we need to ask:

1.So long as the USG continues to run up deficits of 1.2 -1.5 Trillion per year, who will buy the new debt? Not China and not Japan. IMHO the ONLY buyer is The Fed.

2. How can the Fed EVER reduce its balance sheet? Same question, who will buy crap mortgages without 80%+ haircuts? Who will buy Treasuries from The Fed when the very act of dumping such instruments, together with ongoing new debt coming on stream, will push prices down and interest rates up, if indeed interest rates are not already rising by that time?

In summary, IMHO, the Fed's statement that it MIGHT reduce QE in 2013 is just more pretty words intended to calm the sheeple.

rl999 · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:29pm

Gun ban list

Yeah, that one is a bit dated.

Today is 1/3/2013, 1/3/'13, etc

Key quote:

Alan Korwin - Author Gun Laws Of America

Im not sure how to get jan 3, 2013 out of 3-12-9

Mr. Fix · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:30pm

RE,This is unusual timing Submitted by pforth

I agree, the timing is unusual, we do not necessarily have to figure out what their motives are,

 just because they can is good enough.

 A story that was discussed much last week, a “DHS insider” was told that the first warning of an economic collapse would be the precious metals getting hammered.

 I have been saying that for a long time, it was just nice having some “DHS insider” confirm my suspicions.

 I really think that when they “crash the system,” they're going to make sure that precious metals are the very last thing people think of as a safe haven. Besides, it will be too late by then.

 Seeing as that people here have been buying precious metals all day long, we are fine tonight.

 Tonight's smashed down is just the predictable result of so many residents of "Turdville"

stacking during the day.wink

Frankenstein Government · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:31pm

Metals Getting Crushed After Hours

Earlier today, the Fed released their FOMC "minutes." For December, I think.

What a fucking joke.

I'd like to explain a few things here. First off, their was "great dissention" among Fed governors with regard to QEternity. Some wanted it to continue, some wanted it to end midway through 2013, some wanted it to end right away. 

These shitbags, bankers, are well aware of the impact of these meeting minutes. They are also well aware of their release just prior to the NFP numbers tomorrow. When I saw those meeting minutes today- and their remarks- all I could think of was a premeditated and orchestrated attempt to run commodities and currencies down and cover shorts and other positions. 

There is simply no way of policing how often that body, the FOMC, meets in private. 

There is no way in hell that they can end QE. The market would collapse. We know it and they know it. That's why these minutes today were nothing but orchestrated bullshit.

What I am saying is this. We have reached the endgame where there is simply no integrity left. ZH running a piece on after hours market slaughter that is going on. At this point, I trust nobody in any position of leadership or authority- this is what happens just before the train leaves the rails. 

Grigeo Mr. Fix · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:34pm

-Jim Rickards & "DHS Insider"


-Jim Rickards ‏@JamesGRickards

“Security companies are busy ordering two-ton steel doors.” #Gold vaults at a premium in Asia. Ready for dollar crash.

DHS Insider....12/27

"RB: So you think they are separate agendas? That’s funny. The coming collapse of the U.S. dollar is a done deal. It’s been in the works for years—decades, and this is one of the most important cataclysmic events that DHS is preparing for. I almost think that DHS was created for that purpose alone, to fight Americans, not protect them, right here in America. But that’s not the only reason. There’s the gun issue too......

First, DHS is preparing to work with police departments and the TSA to respond to civil uprisings that will happen when there is a financial panic. And there will be one, maybe as early as this spring, when the dollar won’t get you a gumball. I’m not sure what the catalyst will be, but I’ve heard rumblings about a derivatives crisis as well as an oil embargo. I don’t know, that’s not my department. But something is going to happen to collapse the dollar, which has been in the works since the 1990s......

Watch the metals, when they dip. It will be a good indication that things are about to happen. I got that little tidbit from my friend at [REDACTED]."

Harald · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:35pm

I take 100 mg of zinc each

I take 100 mg of zinc each day. Sixty six years old, haven't been sick a day in years.

Yogi Berra said predictions are hard, but for some reason Homo Sapiens are hard wired to try to figure out what will happen before it does happen. Pundits? Maybe nobody knows. "People are more likely to believe you if you tell them what they want to hear." Learned that from one of my ex-wives. 

I think George Carlin meant to say: "It's a very small club and you aint f&$%#n in it."

billwilson · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:39pm


Always need the retest of the lows ... just never think they can make it happen ... but the assholes always do. That is why you have to play the other side. The only way to make money in this game is to play with the assholes. 

Silver will be at $26 and gold at $1550 by tomorrow am ... lol

Frankenstein Government philipat · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:40pm

I think Todays Minutes Were Contrived for Effect

The FOMC are Fed bankers. Their statements were orchestrated and intentional. Released just prior to NFP. They are not casual remarks...they were fired intentionally and you can be damn sure of that.

Some folks are giving them the benefit of the doubt- that the FOMC has integrity. I don't agree. I think we would do well to mull over the possibilities that these statements were contrived because we know damn well they cannot end QE. WE know it and they know it. They are achieving the bloodletting in commodities that they had hoped for.

ScottJ · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:44pm

It's amazing to me that

It's amazing to me that everything "goes on as normal"....

Until one day it doesn't.

tobydaniel · Jan 3, 2013 - 8:59pm

We are in dangerous territory

Silver in June was around 27 or so. It took 2 QE's just to barely get us to 35. Now we pretty much lost 6 months of gains in a blink of an eye. Sorry but I really don't think this will be silvers year. The banks are getting out of control with their manipulation and its only getting worse. I believe our time will come when they run out of silver and not a minute sooner. Until that time, the banks will decide the price and all the wishing and praying that silver will go up will be shown useless.

Monedas · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:00pm

Turd's "Travel Day" ?

We're getting plenty of "Travel", Turd .... are you planning to return soon .... just curious ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Stinking Trick Slam While Turd's Away Day World Tour devil PS: Harald ! How many ex-wives .... you need at least three for the loser's club .... or you ain't f#&$%=g in it ?

Mr. Fix · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:03pm

RE,We are in dangerous territory Submitted by tobydaniel

We are indeed in dangerous territory, I do not believe we will need to wait much longer for them to run out of silver. That's why it's called the "Endgame".

tmosley · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:08pm

Colloidal silver is

Colloidal silver is potentially dangerous. It accumulated in the liver and stays there. The long term effects are not known. Best to stay away from it unless you are actually sick.

Garlic is better. A group affiliated with my old lab showed that it has anti-Pseudomonas properties. I'd bet a silver dollar that it's anti-microbial effects aren't limited to Pseudomonas, either.

joehappen · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:12pm

This is a GREAT start!

I love losing purchasing power in my stack of metals. Its really great to know some of us have OVERALL lost money all together (meaning would have really been better off with cash in a checking account at 1%). Between normal inflation (if you bought gold at the start of 2012 you lost money by the end of 2012) due to the rise of cost between 7-10% depending on what numbers you use as a basic CPI figure. If you bought silver... you broke even if you were lucky I suppose. Now>>> in the great grand overall scheme of the whole picture, we should have never listened to those saying YOU MUST BUY NOW. This mind set has made many people probably reading this lose money since say March and April of 2011 through today. So I guess I need to be in metals for oh... 5-7 years now just to break even from where I started? This is even with dollar cost averages. Again this may sound like I am really the bitching type (maybe I am) but will I still be down 50% on silver I bought TWO Whole years ago come this mid April, which is only 4 months out?

Bottom line is I don't read or listen to people who pedal Info about acting in an instant or you will come to your doom. I am not saying Turd is like that at all, just be informed about some out there may try to make a buck by creating false hype.

Am I the only one who is feeling this way? Seriously, coming up on two full years with inflation and still having a suppressed paper price. Feels like a double loss. I am done bitching. I guess I will continue to buy the dips as silver is AGAIN below $30.

MUDbone · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:13pm

Will facebook and silver cross again?

Remember a while ago we were all making fun of facebook and had a contest for when silver would overtake facebook? Looks like the opposite might happen soon.

Harald · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:19pm


I like to live dangerously.

Planters · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:22pm

boy, i just dont get it

I have been here reading for a LONG time and I am just as confused as day one. One thing is for sure is that I don't get it. WTF

Is this a preliminary raid prior to horseshit jobs report ? OR is the news leaked that jobs added were 225,000 ?? Listening to Bloomberg radio they see an average of 125,000 every month so can someone help figure this out.

Chibster · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:23pm

What's with Silver during HongKong time these days?

Perhaps TPTB now own the banks and markets on the Asian side of the world now too...

U.S. Stocks Fall as Fed Sees Bond Buying Ending in 2013

Jan 3, 2013 11

Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting show policy makers are likely to end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases sometime in 2013.

Here's another gun control hypocrit Dianne Feinstein Senator California

Dianne Feinstein Gun Control Hypocrite
Planters · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:24pm

ok USD at 80.61 Thats

ok USD at 80.61 Thats it........

ancientmoney Planters · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:37pm

@Planters re: I don't get it

preliminary raid to horseshit jobs report?

Very likely. That has been their MO for a long time now.

As Mr. Fix said, when they run out of physical silver, it will be game over. Apparently, they will not give up one second before then.

Silver will be impossible to get in any sizeable amount then, even though that seems ridiculous right now. That is how they operate. Keep as many people offside as (in)humanly possible . . .for as long as possible.

A rising price would cause them to lose what they have even sooner. These are last ditch efforts to drag out the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment. Nothing more.

One more thing that I, Mr. Fix and tmosley have said many times . . . paper silver (the prices you see) will approach zero, even as no physical can be bought for those low prices. We aren't there yet, but it is coming.

department of truth · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:51pm

Bombs Away!

The crooks are still running ALL the shows. The Fascist Business Model is in full bloom! Silver and gold are going on sale again . . . .

Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 92.20 -0.72 -0.78
Natural Gas 3.215 +0.001 +0.03
Corn 688.75 -2.00 -0.29
Soybeans 1387.50 -4.75 -0.34
30yr Bond 144.37500 -0.34375 -0.24
10yr Note 131.625000 -0.515625 -0.39
NY Gold 1648.4 -26.2 -1.55
NY Silver 29.595 -1.125 -3.63
DayStar · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:51pm

Harvey's Up!

Ben Traynor: Politicians the world over are losing control of their monetary base. DS: No, Ben, politicians the world over are colluding to completely destroy the monetary base. Meanwhile, India is busy figuring ways it can hose its people to make them quit buying physical gold. Yeah, that should work just like announcing you are going to make guns illegal. December 2012 US Mint gold sales increased to 76,000 ounces, up from 65,500 ounces in December 2011. The official US debt ceiling was breached 31 Dec. Dems think Reps will fold like a cheap lawn chair in March 2013 debt ceiling debate.


MUDbone · Jan 3, 2013 - 9:53pm

Paper price

"One more thing that I, Mr. Fix and tmosley have said many times . . . paper silver (the prices you see) will approach zero, even as no physical can be bought for those low prices. We aren't there yet, but it is coming."

Paper price will never approach zero. You will always be able to buy silver at the spot or paper price. If no silver is available then the price will go up. This is why Jim Sinclair published how to buy silver from the Comex during the lows of 2008. There were reports that no silver was available at that time, but that was not true. 1000 ounce Comex bars were readily available to those who followed his instructions!

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes