Reality Bites

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 11:02am

So, let's see. The fiscal cliff "deal" involves massive tax increases and no spending cuts. NO! Really? You don't say. And now, all those who were selling and shorting the metals are getting squeezed. Welcome to 2013.

I'm still on vacation and won't officially be back "on the throne" until Friday morning...just in time for the latest BLSBS. For now, we should all be pleased with this rally in the metals. I'd mentioned last evening that I wanted to see $1690+ and $31+ and, this morning, we've got it. This doesn't mean it's time to sound the All Clear yet but it is definitely an encouraging development, as you can plainly see on these hourly charts.

Regardless of the very short term movements, I still expect vigorous rallies from here as reality sets in for 2013:

  • The U.S. fiscal and economic picture has worsened.
  • No doubt another debt downgrade is coming.
  • Spec long money, which was squared up and exited the market in December, is already coming back in.
  • QE∞ is now guaranteed to last through 2015 and beyond and $85B/month will be proven to be insufficient. Watch out for the BLSBS. A surprisingly lousy number will give the smartypant shorts a true religious experience on Friday.

For now, let's just hold and consolidate these gains and then make runs to and through $1700 and $32. I'll be able to give more specific targets once I'm back in the office.

Lastly, this article was posted to ZH yesterday so you might have missed it. Very interesting with some particularly telling charts. (I'll tell you what's "afoot". Massive price suppression, that's what!)

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 3, 2013 - 4:36am

you need to strike them where it hurts

the safest, easiest and most effective way is to constantly buy CURRENT minted silver coins.

Try to stack as many 2013 Silver Maples, or 2013 Philharmonics, or 2013 Silver Eagles etc. , anything where they can't just find on the market or their stocks to give to you.

Jan 3, 2013 - 5:29am

Its the ACT, not the amount

The silver crimex delivery discussion is very encouraging to me. The positive response from so many is really nice to see.

For those who disagree with the concept, just think about the Doolittle raid on Tokyo in WWII.

A tiny impact on the Japanese, which actually spurred them on to even greater atrocities and agressions. The cost in lives to the Doolittle squadron was heavy as well.

The result: A MASSIVE boost to the morale of all Allied nations. Finally!! We hit them back on their own turf.

I see this akin to that heroic mission, and hope it comes off.

Jan 3, 2013 - 5:42am

Gold News from India

Indian Govt is planning to raise import duty on gold

Stop lusting for gold, brace for diesel hike: Rangarajan

Prime Minister's Economic Advisor C Rangarajan, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, said gold imports are ruling much above the average seen in previous years and a hike in import duty of gold will help reduce the CAD

Jan 3, 2013 - 6:18am

How about

one day,

the coin will drop!

Jan 3, 2013 - 6:56am

Dismissed JPM Silver Lawsuit: HEH related?

Turd: If I've missed this question/answer somewhere in the last few days, please point me to it. If it hasn't been asked or addressed, could you give us a simple yes or no?

Juan Moment
Jan 3, 2013 - 7:10am

TFMR co-operation

From memory the idea of having the TFMR community band together and take out a Comex contract has been floated a couple of times before, but never really grown wings. I am glad Fat Willie has let the genie back out of the bottle.

I have quickly added up all 'count me in' responses in this thread so far, showing either the number of shares indicated, or 2 if Turdites stated "a few", or 1 if no quantity was mentioned.

Turdite Shares
ABQBear 10
ag1969 3
agNau 2
ancientmoney 5
Arcticfoxx 2
Big L 1
Bollocks 3
Bsong 2
CalLawyer 2
cliff 567 1
dgstage 2
DollarMenu2 2
Dolomite 3
Dr Jerome 1
fast mover 2
Fat Willie 6
historygraph 3
Juan Moment 5
kingboo 1
MainMan 2
Mantis 2
OneTime 1
pontiac 1
question 2
R man J 1
silver slug 2
silver66 1
Silvergunn 1
Stack em high 1
Swift Boat Vet 2
thesandbox 2
TheYeomanFarmer 2
Tom Mack 1
treefrog 1
Urban Roman 2
Count 35 Total Shares 80

So there, without any effort on marketing the idea, within 12 hours or so, already we got 8% of the contract sum. If Turd would come on board and promotes the idea, in all likelihood we could reach a 1000 shares.

May I however propose that a certain portion, say 10%, of the money raised goes to the actual purpose of this site, and that is to spread the word and warn people of the financial shit storm that is about to come down the pike. We'd be talking about $15'000, which if spent wisely and targeted could for instance fund a small but effective Google ad campaign.

My interest in such a venture is not so much to accumulate as many quirky looking ounces as I can, but also to generate the funds needed to help people see the truth, understand their position in the game and what options they have to take affirmative action.

Be that as it may, the lions (ants) don't sleep no more.

Jan 3, 2013 - 7:29am

Bacon - good for you

Maybe my kale-Greek yoghurt smoothies may not be necessary after all. In my inbox from Dr. Mercola this morning.

Bacon's primary asset is its fat, and that fat— surprise! – is primarily monounsaturated. Fifty percent of the fat in bacon is monounsaturated, mostly consisting of oleic acid, the type so valued in olive oil. About three percent of that is palmitoleic acid, a monounsaturate with valuable antimicrobial properties. About 40 percent of bacon fat is saturated, a level that worries fat phobics, but is the reason why bacon fat is relatively stable and unlikely to go rancid under normal storage and cooking conditions. That's important, given the fact that the remaining 10 percent is in the valuable but unstable form of polyunsaturates.

Pork fat also contains a novel form of phosphatidylcholine that possesses antioxidant activity superior to Vitamin E. This may be one reason why lard and bacon fat are relatively stable and not prone to rancidity from free radicals.

Bacon fat from pastured pigs also comes replete with fat-soluble vitamin D, provided it's bacon from foraging pigs that romp outdoors in the sun for most of year. Factory-farmed pigs kept indoors and fed rations from soy, casein, corn meal, and other grains, are likely to show low levels of Vitamin D.

If bacon makes you happy, the stress relief more than makes up for a few nitrites...

Jan 3, 2013 - 7:35am

Looks like the crowd is running from the NFP.s tomorrow.

How we have learned to love the first friday of the month.. slamorama

Jan 3, 2013 - 7:46am


since we are preoccupied with bacon here, on occasion.....i will put forth it is a substance VERY misunderstood by the general public, mostly since it is connected to the ridiculous cholesterol myth, generated by the drug manufacturers to get u to take another side-effect laden drug....... daily..........

vascular/heart disease is caused by inflammation, which comes from our overconsumption of overprocessed mostly wheat products............ [wheat which has been changed from that of our distant ancesters----first by the Huns, crossbreeding it to 3X the gluten content......resulting in the physical/mental/societal decline of the dark ages......................THEN in the last 40 years by Monsanto/ArcherDanielsMidland to make it GROW easier--to the extreme DETRIMENT of its health qualities].........whole wheat in comparison to bacon is poison.

inflammation is easily cured with high dose vitamin C, diet changes and in some cases possibly probiotics and pancreatic enzymes.

geez there i went again.........................

anyway BACON:

Bacon's primary asset is its fat, and that fat— surprise! – is primarily monounsaturated. Fifty percent of the fat in bacon is monounsaturated, mostly consisting of oleic acid, the type so valued in olive oil. About three percent of that is palmitoleic acid, a monounsaturate with valuable antimicrobial properties. About 40 percent of bacon fat is saturated, a level that worries fat phobics, but is the reason why bacon fat is relatively stable and unlikely to go rancid under normal storage and cooking conditions. That's important, given the fact that the remaining 10 percent is in the valuable but unstable form of polyunsaturates.

Although manufacturers label their bacon “nitrite free,” this method actually generates more nitrite from the celery salt than would ever be added as a salt. “Nitrite free” bacon can have twice the nitrite content of bacons cured directly with nitrite salts

  • Bacon from pastured pigs contains healthful saturated and monounsaturated fat, mostly consisting of oleic acid, the type so valued in olive oil. It also contains palmitoleic acid, which has antimicrobial properties, phosophatidyl choline that possesses antioxidant activity superior to Vitamin E, and fat-soluble vitamin D
  • The healthiest forms of bacon and other preserved meats are those that are prepared using time tested age old traditional methods using meat from healthy animals. If you desire to eat bacon it is preferred to find bacon from pastured pigs is raised by local farmers that convert the bacon using time honored methods

more at:

Jan 3, 2013 - 7:47am

GEEEZ.............opticsguy beats me by 17 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!

probly because i'm a one finger typist..............tho a quick one.

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:15am

Not posted for awhile, and

Not posted for awhile, and technically still on my holiday break in brazil, but Comex Contract delivery talk makes me feel inclined to chip in.

I have spoken at length with my broker about taking delivery of both gold and silver contracts via the comex, in practice it is simple enough, you buy the futures contract and hold it through first notice day where you then will be required to put up the full contract value based upon your entry price, eg $31 *5000 for silver, and $1680 * 100 for gold.

Comex requires you take at least 100 ounces of gold and 5000 ounces of silver, the silver will be in 1000 ounce bars and the gold will be in either a 100 ounce or 3 equal size bars (mini bars)

I may have misunderstood but if your talking about sharing this delivery across many participants you would need to subsequently have the bars melted down, It would be far easier to approach a refiner directly ( I don't know what size they would be willing to do it for though)

Happy New year all,


Jan 3, 2013 - 8:16am

Silver Bank

Perhaps the silver can be delivered to this bank. They only accept silver as a deposit.

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:27am


You said the Comex has not delivered physical in two years (defaulted) can you provide evidence?

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:37am

The big JPM story

There are several high profile types calling for the JPM silver manipulation story to break. It was apparently going to be Sept then Dec and now 2013 definitely. Well what I don't get is, if these people know what the scandal is and that it is going to break why don't they just say it, who is going to release the news and why now? After all `going mainstream' can be made to happen by word of mouth of smaller internet sites. What is the delay? E.g. if the story ran on say Zerohedge it would be picked up by Max Keiser, KWN, TFMR, Silverdoctors, etc or if it broke on RT Max Keiser the others would pick up on it. Do we assume by going mainstream it means on bloomberg, CNBC or the BBC? Why does it have to be there to get the desired result. As the law suit has been halted if only temporary and the CFTC investigation is almost guaranteed either not to be released or find no wrong doing (yeah right) then what is the delay?

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:40am


I think the weakness in the silver price suggests a waterfall is coming.

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:42am


Nothing is going to happen. It's all smoke. Not to say manipulators don't exist. But they dont know. Ill stand corrected if so. very irrsonbible of people to blow this smoke-you are right. if they know it why not say it. I know something you don't know. We did that in the 3rd grade. Don't need a scandle to see what's happening with our monetary system and the path to take

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:44am

It the spirit of Reality Bites. One Day Soon Hopefully

Congress Arrested On Manslaughter Charges
Jan 3, 2013 - 8:52am


Is down.

Jan 3, 2013 - 8:56am

@ silverbee

If we get the waterfall you are sensing, Turd's site will go down too. I have noticed over the last month that everytime there is a waterfall dip, I can't get on here and get some message from "cloudflare" that the live site is down and offering me cached pages.

I am buying a waterfall dip today. Yeehaa!

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:01am

Excuse my ignorance

But what is the rationale for delaying the fiscal cliff decision for two months?

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:03am

In a totally shocking development

After capping the price all day yesterday in the aftermath of gold and silver's initial rise, they've now been bled off in the thin after hours markets. Gold has completely erased any gains in the last two days and silver has completely erased it's earlier spike and is now working it's way down to undoing the ramp up to the spike.

This is what they do after every bullish piece of news now... let them fly on the news, cap them until enthusiasm dies down then smash them back to where they started.

The EE is still firmly in control.

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:04am

Its winding up

I am of out for the next three hours what every is going to happen it will happen by the time I'm back. It probably will be an advanced hit before NFP Friday.

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:06am

@Mr Fix

`Time is short, and the Evil Empire is about to expose itself with or without our help.'

Evidence please?

Mr. Fix
Jan 3, 2013 - 9:22am

RE, SIlverbee

If you read the last few posts on DayStar's Harvey Organ thread, he has compiled a lot of evidence of massive physical demand, combined with tight markets, and some excellent analysis as to what is really going on. In an intentionally opaque market, finding “hard evidence” has proven to be quite challenging, even “inside sources” have proven to be misinformed. I can only draw on my years of experience in watching this mess unfold, that we are most definitely watching an “endgame", And that it is quickly nearing its conclusion. But then again, you guys already know how I feel. I will be the first to admit that “feelings are not facts”, and circumstantial evidence is not proof, But nobody has anything more than that to go on. There is no denying that the lawlessness has been exponentially increasing in the past few months, and that their game is being exposed all over the place. It would be impossible for me to compile years of research into one reply, sometimes I just take it on blind faith from others that have been watching this for a long time, and sometimes I just have to learn to trust. My conclusions are my own, you are entitled to your own.

Mr. Fix
Jan 3, 2013 - 9:24am

As they say on “Shark Tank”,........ "I'm out".

Very interesting thread,

I appreciate the sentiment of going after the bad guys at their most vulnerable point,

but I suspect that there are already players that are infinitely better financed than those of us in “Turdville" will ever be.

The COMEX it is not their most vulnerable point,

it is their most reinforced stronghold.

It is a sanctuary for them where theft and fraud can be conducted on a daily basis with impunity.

We all know that the COMEX is a criminal enterprise that removes wealth from all that play there, and hands it over to the Evil Empire itself.

Silver is a global market, and despite the way it has been trading lately, it will ultimately wind up reverting to the good old principles of “supply and demand.”

I belief that removing silver from the markets at any point along the way will be just as effective as going directly to the COMEX, and “standing for delivery”, in fact, it would be much more effective.

I personally would rather clean out my local coin shop, or deal with my favorite online broker, because my odds of being ripped off are substantially reduced.

Can you guys think of anything the Evil Empire would rather do than “MF global” “Turdville”?

If we stood for delivery, and they told us to “go to hell” we would have absolutely no recourse whatsoever.

That would be an extraordinarily expensive lesson, one that other public people have already learned in recent months.

I find it interesting that we cannot find any evidence of anybody who has successfully “stood for delivery” and yet we do know of people who have attempted to, and lost their entire investment.

I will not willingly participate in such a game, they literally hold all the cards.

If TF metals were to issue their own silver rounds, I would probably buy a few, because I think it would be neat to own them, and I know that I would be supporting a worthy cause, namely my own family's financial security, and Turd Ferguson.

Any strategy that is developed with the sole intent of “screwing the bankers on their home turf” is destined to fail. I believe that silver is the banker's “Achilles' heel,” but that is only true anywhere other than the COMEX. Keep stacking, and keep preparing for what is to come. Time is short, and the Evil Empire is about to expose itself with or without our help. I would just rather not be one of their targets when that comes to pass. Survival will require maintaining a low profile, “standing for delivery” to expose their fraud would only paint a bull's-eye on “Turdville" for the Evil Empire to aim at. I'm out.
Big L
Jan 3, 2013 - 9:26am

And then I see this...’s-give-constitution In keeping with my New Years personal honesty resolution I planned to post a meme on a daily or weekly basis, more to keep myself honest than for any other reason. To share this struggle with the only people I know who really get it, you guys. Today I planned to start with my most difficult hurdle, which is accepting that the system is broken beyond repair. I'm not making any judgements about who or when or why. I'm not planning a fix or solution or prepping today, I'm only trying to internalize and truly accept that what I loved and respected and held dear and saw as a shining light in the world is no longer. Then I opened zerohedge and saw that article on the homepage. I don't need to say anymore, you guys get it.

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:30am

Silvertowne and Turd rounds

I made an unofficial anonymous call to Silvertowne (about 45 minutes from my house) and was given pricing on making silver Turd coins.

  • Dies: $1250. 25 cents per coin
  • Striking: As low as 85 cents per coin in a quantity of 5K
  • Profit... They sell at spot on deals like this...but...normally, Silvertowne takes in junk silver at a discount, refines it, then sells it just above spot. If we provided the 5000 ounces, they would add in profit to make up the difference between their buy and sell prices. I didn't want to waste her time, so I didn't ask her to inquire with the boss. My guess is about $2-3 per ounce.
  • Nice cases range from 50 cents up
  • Shipping costs from Comex to a manufacturer.
  • Shipping costs? -- finished product to our distributor.
  • Distribution costs?--coins mailed to each participant

I presume that the other manufacturers will be in that same ballpark on pricing. Actually, it sounds reasonable to me. Making the rounds and distributing them is probably the easy part.

The rep insisted that the silver must be .999 pure. She had never heard of COMEX and wondered if they were a reputable dealer.... Now that's funny! I wonder the same thing.

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:34am

I want to apologize to everybody…

…for the hit silver is about to take.

I don't know what I was thinking, I purchased some more online yesterday. I should have known better.

Silver always, ALWAYS takes a hit after I do that and the resulting decline usually takes several weeks to recover.

It's just that those "Slave Queen" coins looked too good to pass up. If I could have gotten them at the LCS, I would have, but sadly the only way to get them is online.

Again, sorry for the inevitable waterfall - hope it happens today. A big dump is better than weeks of slow-grinding decay.

ancientmoney Mr. Fix
Jan 3, 2013 - 9:34am

@Mr. Fix re: Shark Tank--you're out . . .

I thought you would back a plan to take action. It is not necessarily the small amount of silver that is important, but the combined actions of several otherwise disconnected people.

By taking on a life of its own, it becomes a movement for good and noble purposes. We know owning real silver and gold is a good thing. To the extent we attract more people who want to do something, but didn't know what they could do to set things right, the better it becomes for everyone.

Just the planning process as we've done here has caused people to take on a new attitude of making some difference.

Jan 3, 2013 - 9:37am


thank you for the chuckle!

She had never heard of COMEX and wondered if they were a reputable dealer....


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS