Reality Bites

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 11:02am

So, let's see. The fiscal cliff "deal" involves massive tax increases and no spending cuts. NO! Really? You don't say. And now, all those who were selling and shorting the metals are getting squeezed. Welcome to 2013.

I'm still on vacation and won't officially be back "on the throne" until Friday morning...just in time for the latest BLSBS. For now, we should all be pleased with this rally in the metals. I'd mentioned last evening that I wanted to see $1690+ and $31+ and, this morning, we've got it. This doesn't mean it's time to sound the All Clear yet but it is definitely an encouraging development, as you can plainly see on these hourly charts.

Regardless of the very short term movements, I still expect vigorous rallies from here as reality sets in for 2013:

  • The U.S. fiscal and economic picture has worsened.
  • No doubt another debt downgrade is coming.
  • Spec long money, which was squared up and exited the market in December, is already coming back in.
  • QE∞ is now guaranteed to last through 2015 and beyond and $85B/month will be proven to be insufficient. Watch out for the BLSBS. A surprisingly lousy number will give the smartypant shorts a true religious experience on Friday.

For now, let's just hold and consolidate these gains and then make runs to and through $1700 and $32. I'll be able to give more specific targets once I'm back in the office.

Lastly, this article was posted to ZH yesterday so you might have missed it. Very interesting with some particularly telling charts. (I'll tell you what's "afoot". Massive price suppression, that's what!)

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 2, 2013 - 9:29pm

silver turds

With silver at 31, we might want to charge 40 to cover any price rise between collecting the money and putting in our buy order. This would also cover shipping the bar to the refiner, making the die, and producing the coins. Any money left over would be donated to turds website. Im in for three ounces.

cliff 567
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:29pm

I could care less whether I

I could care less whether I get 30 dimes or 3 rounds. For me, it is about the principle.

I want you to read what you said and then try to imagine a whole lot of folk on this ste consider a 3 ounce purchase of silver to be an 'all hands on deck' kind of thing.

If a person that came across this offer, endorsed by Turd, and all he had to chip in / risk to loose was $16.50, I do believe that Turd would be swamped.

And, we we would be actual insiders with full reports of the bull shit numbers.

Go as it may, I want one of them dimes.

I'm in.

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:30pm

Turdites - Comex Contract and Take Delivery

Summary for those just now joining:

(1) Genius Turdite hatched the idea for Turdites to buy one Comex silver contract, and stand for delivery. It is NOT using paper or fiat, it is stacking, designed to take silver directly from the Comex. (The idea is that we can see once and for all whether the Comex offers paper over and above the closing price, or instead delivers the 5,000 ounces. Then we will all know for sure whether that rumor is true or just a rumor).

(2) The "purchaser" of the contract is a group of Turdites, who pool their money to buy 1 Comex contract. Turdites pledge to take a share or more, once 1000 shares are pledged, the money is collected, given to Andy, who buys the Comex contract and stands for delivery. So far, there are many Turdites who have pledged to buy shares.

(3) If many Turdites contribute just a little, thus making the buy-in minimal, stacking if you will, then the risk is spread around, and which risk spreading operates just like a Lloyds' insurance syndicate. There is no risk of loss of capital, only risk that silver decreases in price and we overpaid. I am happy to take that risk, because I am a stacker and I value my silver in ounces stacked, not in fiat price per ounce.

(4) If 1000 Turdites pledge to contribute for one share, the buy in is 1/1000th of the full contract. Personally, I am in for at least 2 shares, or more, depending.

(5) One Comex contract is 5,000 ounces, so each share is 5 oz., or about $150-160 per buy in, depending upon price when contract is purchased.

(6) Another Turdite genius suggested that we take delivery, then have the 5,000 ounces turned into speciality rounds.

There you have it.

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:35pm
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:37pm
TheYeomanFarmer California Lawyer
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:40pm

COMEX Contract

Put me down for at least two shares.

Northwest Territorial Mint could take our five 1,000 oz bars and produce any custom design we want:

They also have a policy where you can send them large bars and get small bars or rounds back in exchange.

Looks like it would cost us an extra dollar or so per ounce for that (and take the typical 8-10 weeks for delivery that all their products have). We could add that extra dollar per ounce to each person's total.

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:45pm

Just a couple of thoughts on the silver project.

Chris Duane has gone through the pushups of creating a coin, and he and Turd have a professional relationship.

Why not get as much bang for the bucks as possible, and the biggest bang is always educating others about honest money vs the money changers.

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:47pm
J.P. Cubish
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:50pm

Bank of Turd

How can we start our own bank? Gold and silver deposits. Loans made to worthy (this means worthy) creditors, with reasonable fractional reserves ie 50%. A real bank. Not a playing card paper fantasy. Real bank, real money, real loans.

I am no big poop in Turdville, however; it seems to me when a bunch of real shit disturbers, with the real money (silver and gold) line up in a row they start to have a voice.

The type of bank that wont Fort Knox your pension plan

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:50pm

Bad Idea Fellow Turdites

The Comex is a rigged game. Defaulted on delivery two years ago and is a mug's game ever since. Hate to rain on the parade but this has to the potential to destroy Turdville. How pissed off will the community be when they are collectively ripped off?

You don't think the PBTB would love to screw you out of your money (again, think MFGlobal, ask Turd if he got all his MFGlobal money back yet).

Do your part and buy locally to take the physical out of the market.



J.P. Cubish
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:54pm

What she said

"Don't Fort Knox me, and never let me know what is inside."

Jan 2, 2013 - 9:56pm

IF California Lawyer's explanation is correct.....

then put me in for at least (two) on a continuously upped basis(placing another order on the next contract on expiration) I believe this great idea places the crosshairs on the correct target.....aye! *there may be some work to get this together, and working properly. Just a thought. We are talking about handling $150,000 or better amongst 1000 accounts. Perhaps fees, and even Hidden Fees charged like BAC, or Wells Fargo? JK ;)

Fat Willie
Jan 2, 2013 - 9:56pm

CL - GreatSummary

Thanks for your summary and comments. I love where this has gone today. I actually thought it would fizzle in a page or two :)

Standing together gives us strength. We can all stack on our own and just dilute our efforts. Or we can concentrate it and potentially make a small difference. But it is a start. And great things can start very small. Consider Turd's own blog and what this has become.

Anyway, I am in, and I will volunteer my time for free to assist in making it happen. We do need someone we all trust to facilitate, and I think most would agree that would be Turd/Andy.

Turd - thank you for all you do. I hope you are able to support this.

Best everybody -


Jan 2, 2013 - 9:57pm

Mint a Real Quarter

Suggestion: Some want an ounce, some want a dime. Split the difference and make quarter-ounce coins. "Dimes" are parts of a dollar. We'd be better off sticking with parts of an Ounce.

Pick a couple of pieces of $2.00 artwork from iStock or similar source, one for front and one for back. Keep it simple. Have the mint convert those images to a die of the right size. Make only one size, have it stamped to the highest quality, and we will wind up with numismatic value as well as silver content.

We could have a contest to pick the best image for each side! That Ferguson tractor caught my eye. This is a fun thread!

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:02pm


I thank you for the summary, but again I will say that I doubt we will find out if they are offering paper above the closing price. My guess is that there are some big brokers(?) out there that purchase contracts for a lot of individual investors. (ie MFGlobal) and some of them are probably very gifted at explaining to their customers why despite all of the evidence to the contrary, they should roll. Investor thinks he made the right decision based on advice of "certified professional" and said "certified professional" gets big envelope of cash from Blythe. If everyday people were being offered these "bonuses", we would already know the truth. It has to be someone benefiting from prolonging the scam. But I am still in for my three shares.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:03pm

High Risk? Let's go for it !

That's the whole point, risk a small amount of dough; the goal is not a profit, it's to be part of something bigger, like when the comex crumbles. I'm in for $500.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:04pm

Sorry guys.

This is just another hollow brained, ridiculous idea that initially ramps up the motivation and rhetoric only to ultimately disappoint you in the end. You don't need to do this to "find out" what happens if you stand for delivery...there are many who can answer that question for you.

@fleetfleet: NWTM has stagecoach bars that are divisible into 1/4 increments of an ounce.


Jan 2, 2013 - 10:05pm

i am in to match ca

for two shares

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:05pm


last month wells fargo charged me a "cash deposited fee"

And I know I should not be in Welss Fargo, but need to use a National Bank for my business. All my personal money is in a local bank.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:09pm

Harvey's Up!

Well, it's time for a new year of Harvey! Gold was up against all fiat currencies in 2012. Growing food inflation can clearly be seen in the 2012 food commodity returns with wheat being up a worrisome 19%. Competitive currency debasements for competitive advantage and currency wars poses real risks to the long term global financial stability in all countries. The fiscal cliff resolution was so chaotic that it will likely cause a downgrade in the US credit rating at some point. Ned Naylor-Leyland thinks the silver manipulation story will break free of its shackles in 2013 and go mainstream. All this and more on...

the Harvey Report!

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:10pm

And just for the record

I only mentioned the dimes because I wanted to get "Brother can you spare a Turd" out there. I thought it was funny, but I guess I was wrong. I don't want dimes or 1/10th oz coins. Everyone gets all serious when we talk about 150 grand, jeez!

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:15pm

Minting coins

Northwest Territorial Mint will custom mint coins.

I would email them, but I'm due for my yearly reshoeing in the morning.

This isn't an investment club. They buy things with the expectation to make a profit.

Taken from the site of the most holy and benevolent.

Since the Securities Act requires the registration of the offer and sale of most securities, the investment club must first decide if its membership interests are "securities." Generally, a membership interest is a security if it is an "investment contract."

Generally, a membership interest is an investment contract if members invest and expect to make a profit from the entrepreneurial and managerial efforts of others.

old tradesman
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:27pm

My two cents (good luck)

Johnny Cash - Sixteen Tons
ancientmoney Kcap
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:28pm

@Kcap re: sorry guys . . .

I disagree. While the idea must be approved by Turd, and the specifics fleshed out, it is a simple paradigm. Buy a silver futures contract with intent to take delivery. Turn the silver into unique coins for Turdites to own and cherish.

Lots of interest. Others have done it-why not us?

Green Lantern
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:32pm


You guys know the story of Bernard von NotHaus. He went to jail for printing these.

I know you guys are talking about a collectors coin but I'd becareful on your language and intention. NotHaus also printed money backed by gold and silver.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:41pm

Sometimes you just need to say

What the F#@K, this project in my mind has been allocated the mental space of doing it, because it is a action of hitting them where it counts. I have made way worse decisions with money in my life. Not to minimize anyones financial situation, I don't think anyone is being asked to risk their life savings here. We are talking a couple of hundred bucks. Times like this Mr. Silver66 is all about the significance of the action. Sometimes a small action can have large positive unintended consequences.

If you are not interested, then simply say " I pass" or "good luck" or "timing is not right for me" or "let me know how it works out". We need to ask ourselves how to make it work not why it will not work. There are enough of those people out there that will give us that answer. Mr Fix will be the first to admit he has been doom and gloom as of late, so have I. Well this is a positive little step we Turdites can have some fun with. If we get Corzined then we have learned something as well, but would that be a story to tell as well.

So that everyone is clear where Silver66 stands.... Fuck em, let's take delivery:-)

Just my thoughts


Jan 2, 2013 - 10:47pm


Dogs! I have heard multiple stories, all revolve around banks and business accounts, and new money transfer fees. I don't run/own business and am able to operate with funds as limited as possible through CU. They will probably be taken over soon, or regulated! Not making fun of you or others in same situation, but didn't we all just pay a HUGE FEE to these Banksters?!?!?! Called a bailout!!!! Hope you can continue to run your business through this mess.

Big Buffalo
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:48pm


I always liked these images...strong, meaningful, direct, and kinda bad ass.

Get something like these on the back of the coins and they'll make scottdale silver's lion look like a pussy cat.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:52pm

@Big Buffalo...i posted those adresses on here a cpl days ago..

AFTER ALL......IT'S "PUBLIC INFORMATION!"..........i f--ckin love it! good follow-up Big Buffalo

The Journal News is Armed and Dangerous

Posted January 1st, 2013


Armed guards from RGA Investigations have taken up post at the Journal News’ Rockland County headquarters


Journal News' Rockland headquarters in West Nyack, Town of Clarkstown

Guns are good for the goose but NOT for the gander.

A Clarkstown police report issued on December 28, 2012, confirmed that The Journal News has hired armed security guards from New City-based RGA Investigations and that they are manning the newspaper’s Rockland County headquarters at 1 Crosfield Ave., West Nyack, through at least tomorrow, Wednesday, January 2, 2013.

According to police reports on public record, Journal News Rockland Editor Caryn A. McBride was alarmed by the volume of “negative correspondence,” namely an avalanche of phone calls and emails to the Journal News office, following the newspaper’s publishing of a map of all pistol permit holders in Rockland and Westchester.

Due to apparent safety concerns, the newspaper then decided to hire RGA Investigations to provide armed personnel to man the location.

Private investigator Richard Ayoob is the administrator of RGA. He told the Clarkstown Police on Friday, December 28 that there had been no problems on site at the Journal News headquarters despite the massive influx of phone calls and emails.

McBride had filed at least two reports with the Clarkstown Police Department due to perceived threats. However, the police did not find the communications in question actually threatening. Incident-Report 2012-00033099 describes McBride telling police she was worried because an email writer wondered “what McBride would get in her mail now.”

Police said the email “did not constitute an offense” and did not contain an actual threat.

The Journal News caused an international stir when they released an interactive map of pistol permit holders names and addresses in Rockland and Westchester counties last Sunday, December 23. The editors have said they believe knowing where guns are is in the public’s interest. The newspaper has also taken a strident editorial position in favor of strict gun control.

Rather than take the map down following the public uproar, the executive board at the Journal News has decided to “stick to their guns” and double-down on their original decision, as they have said a map listing all pistol permit holders in Putnam County will soon to be posted.

[update---Putnam County officials have since announced their intention to not comply with the Journal News' request for the names and addresses of pistol permit holders]

The controversial use of the Freedom of Information Act to create the interactive map may come back to bite the Journal News and others who would prefer that pistol permits remain public record.

New York State Senator Greg Ball has already introduced state legislation to make such records off-limits to the public and Rockland County legislators led by Frank Sparaco (R) will soon introduce a bipartisan-sponsored resolution with a similar intent.

It is not clear whether the negative reaction has threatened the Journal News’ true popularity as a news source. As an anecdotal piece of evidence, the Rockland County Times confirms receiving an influx of new subscribers who stated they cancelled their subscription to the Journal News due to the gun story.

The Rockland County Times has not investigated whether the Journal News’ Westchester County headquarters in White Plains has beefed up security.

Jan 2, 2013 - 10:53pm

Put me in for a few!

Love this idea! In for a few!!


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

Recent Comments

by NW VIEW, Apr 21, 2019 - 10:32pm
by Pug Nuggets, Apr 21, 2019 - 9:14pm
by Dr Jerome, Apr 21, 2019 - 7:55pm