Reality Bites

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 11:02am

So, let's see. The fiscal cliff "deal" involves massive tax increases and no spending cuts. NO! Really? You don't say. And now, all those who were selling and shorting the metals are getting squeezed. Welcome to 2013.

I'm still on vacation and won't officially be back "on the throne" until Friday morning...just in time for the latest BLSBS. For now, we should all be pleased with this rally in the metals. I'd mentioned last evening that I wanted to see $1690+ and $31+ and, this morning, we've got it. This doesn't mean it's time to sound the All Clear yet but it is definitely an encouraging development, as you can plainly see on these hourly charts.

Regardless of the very short term movements, I still expect vigorous rallies from here as reality sets in for 2013:

  • The U.S. fiscal and economic picture has worsened.
  • No doubt another debt downgrade is coming.
  • Spec long money, which was squared up and exited the market in December, is already coming back in.
  • QE∞ is now guaranteed to last through 2015 and beyond and $85B/month will be proven to be insufficient. Watch out for the BLSBS. A surprisingly lousy number will give the smartypant shorts a true religious experience on Friday.

For now, let's just hold and consolidate these gains and then make runs to and through $1700 and $32. I'll be able to give more specific targets once I'm back in the office.

Lastly, this article was posted to ZH yesterday so you might have missed it. Very interesting with some particularly telling charts. (I'll tell you what's "afoot". Massive price suppression, that's what!)

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


silver66 alwaysbullish
Jan 2, 2013 - 12:55pm

@always bullish

Here are links to the start of discussion on that ZH article, Turd linked to in body of this post. I too would be interested in others thoughts


Keep Stackin My Friends

Jan 2, 2013 - 12:58pm


The Bakken plays have been in limbo, pretty much along with the PMs.... most peaked Q1 2011...familiar? The Fracking risk is there....but oil looks higher and the Prez will restrict public land development...increasing the value of private land....we shall see. TPLM, OAS, REXX all look like massive multi-year cups and handles...if they break out....booyah.

Jan 2, 2013 - 1:03pm

cup and handle, not

Sorry folks. I believe William O'Neil of IBD identified and defined the pattern and it is a sentiment indicator of those who actually own the particular item in question. Goes something like this: as price declines and then starts to move back up, those that bought previously at higher levels will sell out as price moves back up to even for them. These weak hands must be flushed before a move past previous high with higher volume.

From website below "cup duration from 7 to 65 weeks".

Jan 2, 2013 - 1:06pm


America's destruction of ability to think critically began when folks starting censoring speech (which is soon followed by thought) for Political Correctness.

Once you edit / censor speech, all is lost.

Hate speech, too. All speech should be allowed. And if it is that nasty then shaming those that speak it is okay, too...

How many people mocked Ross Perot in the early 90's? Yet he was the one voice that nailed it. Ron Paul anyone?

I think we are occupied by idiots who have accepted this nonsense and are now incapable of thinking effectively.

I had a family member who is old and retired and literally said, "I love medicare, everyone should have it." Let me get this right: $1 goes in - $3 go out (and increasing) How is that great or sustainable? Why is screwing your grandkids "great"?

Alas, I screwed up. I actually "thought".

Jan 2, 2013 - 1:26pm

Ooops Too High

For the determined Comex close!

Fat Willie
Jan 2, 2013 - 1:27pm


Well- just for fun, I thought I would share this. I have gotten lots of questions of late from relatives in deeply entrenched lib states (CA, MA) about land. I am in TX and they are asking what they should do. I tell them to come on down and leave their shitty idealistic attitudes at home. Anyway, there are a *few* who may be starting to get it. My relatives are most certainly not unique. Most are not even aware. But some quiet conversations are starting to happen.

Lets just hope for a catalyst that gets the real movement started.

Oh- and F U CFTC. Corrupt to the core.

Louie Hang10-Hawaii
Jan 2, 2013 - 1:48pm

@ were doomed

I was on vacation this year and met two young men, both college graduates, who (without the aid of drugs or alcohol) spent 30 minutes debating, "Can fish be taught to talk?"

Yes, I am serious. No they were not kidding. They were seriously trying to figure out if fish could be taught to talk.


Fellow M1A lover.

Jan 2, 2013 - 1:58pm


how about a interview with Naylor-Leyland?

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:01pm

How do you like that drop??

and you thought the monkeys gave up.. hmmm.. never!

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:17pm

A happy doctor

I just gave $875 for this 1/2 oz AGE beauty on the left. $25 for the Morgan on the right. I think that one day I will quite pleased with myself and feel no buyer's remorse now.

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:21pm

Paul Craig Roberts is a true patriot . . .

This article speaks to the theme that the government has its own agenda, and cares not what the people want:

Edit: He knows of what he speaks; he was Asst. Sec. of U.S. Treasury, and an editor at WSJ.

ancientmoney Juan Moment
Jan 2, 2013 - 2:37pm

@Juan Moment

I think your idea could work. Something similar was tried before:

GATA using funds from subs, took out a full page ad in the WSJ a couple years ago--maybe some other papers as well--don't recall. The ad called attention to gold suppression. I don't know if it had any effect.

Maybe Turd could expand on your idea and that of Max Keiser:

Maybe Turd could contact Keiser with his Turdite clout, and find a way to make a difference . . .

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:51pm
Jan 2, 2013 - 2:53pm

next target

yeah, silver is getting up!

this is our next target:

Good luck and happy new year!

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:56pm


For the first time in a while I note that the metals and miners are up when the general markets are up. It seems to me that markets up/metals and miners down has been the pattern throughout the Fall.

Jan 2, 2013 - 2:59pm

Silver truck

Binghamton NY isn't that far from many of us.

Perhaps one of those bars was catapulted a hundred feet and sunk into the mushy wet ground, sitting there, just waiting.

S Roche
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:03pm

On The Other Hand...

"As the India Finance minister stated: "Demand for gold must be moderated... We may be left with no choice but to make it more expensive to import gold."


"The chart shows the staggering eightfold increase in India's gold loans "which monetize the idle gold in the country", in just four short years"

Turd is right imao, this week's NFP will be an interesting moment for traders, stackers just keep doing what you do.

Fat Willie
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:03pm

Beat the Comex

It seems to me that we should go after the heart of the beast, the Comex. Here is my crazy idea- get all of the Turdites put up a few bucks and have Turd put in an order on the Comex. Then, we collectively stand for delivery. I would venture we would all get a lot of info from the process, for small individual cost. We need about 160k to get a silver contract. I would think we could make it happen if we all stopped stacking individually and did it as a group all at once. Are there enough Turdites out there who want physical and would love to bust these fuckers? I sure would. And even if all we get is the phys, so what? We still got the bullshit Comex price for it.

Lets get it done.

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:05pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:06pm

The Burning Platform . . . trust government? must read:

James Quinn snippet:

"What the average person can’t seem to process through their government public school educated non-critical thinking brains is that there are actually a small group of bankers, politicians, corporate executives, media magnets, and shadowy billionaires who call the shots in this country. They constitute Bernays’ invisible government, run the show, mold the minds, form the opinions, suggest the ideas, and create the reality for the masses because they believe they are intellectually superior. The left/right and Democrat/Republican discord is a planned diversion for the masses. The country has devolved into a corporate fascist warfare/welfare state."


Here's the link:

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:06pm

Qoute of the day

"The American left is the enabler of the police state, and the American right is its progenitor."

December 31, 2012

Paul Craig Roberts, a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal, has been reporting shocking cases of prosecutorial abuse for two decades. A new edition of his book, The Tyranny of Good Intentions, co-authored with Lawrence Stratton, a documented account of how Americans lost the protection of law, has been released by Random House. Visit his websit

tmosley Fat Willie
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:09pm

@Fat Willie: Don't forget

@Fat Willie:

Don't forget about MF Global. People there were standing for delivery and had everything stolen from them.

The COMEX is not viable. Only physical, with cash on the barrel head is viable.

Eman Laer
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:13pm
Fat Willie
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:16pm


Definitely fair point. Is there any way to do it from within? Open an account at one of the insider banks and get delivery from there instead of one of the smaller firms? Don't know- thinking out loud in public a little. I totally agree Comex is a joke - but this would potentially give us the info we need to see what is happening on deliveries.


ancientmoney tmosley
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:17pm

@tmosley COMEX viability . . .

I agree that long-term (whatever that is) COMEX is not viable. But it is there today, and delivers silver to some degree to standing longs.

Even if we got shut out, I'd be interested to see if we got offered a premium to STFU.

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:20pm

If anyone needs Dr Jerome ....

you'll find him out there with a metal detector remarkably close to the truck crash site!

Louie Doctor J
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:25pm

Louie & Dr. J

Think alike. I have worked crashes with valuable cargo before. They won't have an inventory of what is missing for a day or two. Might be worth some ones time to go poke around with a metal detector this afternoon. They look like 1000 oz good delivery bars. Somebody is stacking some physical!

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:28pm

What If?

What if today's Gold & Silver opening were the yearly lows for 2013?

Just wonderin'...

GLTA in 2013.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 2, 2013 - 3:37pm

Crashed Silver Truck

Update: A WBNY viewer submitted this cell phone photo of a robot that happened on the scene of the crash and was purportedly attempting to assist with the cleanup. Officers found several silver bars concealed in hollow spaces in the robot's feet. As he was placed in a police car, he could be heard saying, "I'm tellin' yer. These bloomin' things are plated. Just let me take these back to my lab for tests".

Jan 2, 2013 - 3:38pm

Ancient Money - I'm In

Count me in for 2 shares at $165.

Turd, if you syndicate this, which is what Ancient Money is suggesting, let's buy a contract and stand for delivery. Why the hell not?

Simple contract: one share is $165, for one/thousandth of the quantity of silver. We need an actual person to place the order and stand for delivery. That same person acts as custodian of the silver. No leasing; physical custody by custodian, who owes fiduciary duty to each participant. Stipulation to venue and choice of law in California; mandatory binding mediation in event of dispute, to be held at Judicate West, personal appearance mandatory. Each signatory to syndicate waives right to court or jury trial. Mediator to be chosen by custodian, or CA Lawyer.

Who out there knows whether this requires a security dealer's license? I do not know. I can draft the contract, no problem, but I do not want to run afoul of any securities regulations, etc.



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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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