Random Thoughts

489
Thu, Dec 27, 2012 - 2:31pm

As you know, I'm on a bit of a vacation but I do have a couple of random thoughts for you.

First of all, I hated the close of silver today. Look at the chart below and notice that silver was dumped, beginning at 1:23 EST, two minutes before the close. Similar to all the odd-hour and low volume-hour dumping we've seen recently, today's dump was clearly designed for effect and not for efficient execution. Does it portend more weakness and another raid? Probably. I'd put the chances at at least 50/50. If you can stomach it, keep an eye n silver overnight.

Next, as you can see, the dumping was limited to silver. The gold chart does not show the same drop.

And the longer term, hourly chart in gold continues to improve. IF we can avoid a raid and actually rally from here, gold might enter 2013 with a halfway decent looking chart. The key will be the action tomorrow and Monday. Let's see if gold can first extend through 1670 and then 1680. A move back UP through 1690 would be very positive, indeed. Keep your fingers crossed.

Crude has hung in there today and continues to trade north of $90. Tomorrow will be the key day. Will it hang in there and make a weekly close above $90 or will it fall back? Watch closely.

Lastly, please don't get distracted by all of the misinformation and SPIN regarding this fiscal cliff nonsense. The faulty analysis and outright lies being presented in the media might cause you to doubt yourself. Do not let this happen and DO NOT SELL YOUR METAL! Every political eventuality is precious metal bullish and you should be using this current weakness to aggressively add to your stack.

That's all for now.

TF

p.s. Vacationing with two teenage can effect one's musical tastes, sometimes for the better. In this case, I present part of the soundtrack of this current holiday. Enjoy!

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About the Author

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  489 Comments

Mr. Fix · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:07am

One “useless” hat tip for kingboo

 I just wanted to get this year's round off to a good start.wink

AlexCojones · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:09am

Mr. Fix - Please Move here Out WEST

I live out here in Arizona and work often in Alaska. Please leave that bureaucratic nightmare of the east coast for the west. Great mechanics like yourself are much in demand in Alaska or in the newest oil patch of the Dakotas.

Also in Arizona and Alaska, people don't put up with the crap you mentioned. Remember that scene in the Terminator, where the cyborg and future governor of California walks into the police station? If the cops out here pulled all the stunts you mentioned, the newspapers would probably carry a story like the incident in the movie. Not saying things are perfect out here, but the east coast, CRADLE OF THE FOUNDING FATHERS, is so far neutered that they don't even realize it.

The Founding fathers would roll over in the collective graves.

AC

Boswell · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:11am

Turdville Database?

Turd's got it! 

Just make sure you have a solid email you can check listed in your profile...

"A valid e-mail address. All e-mails from the system will be sent to this address. The e-mail address is not made public and will only be used if you wish to receive a new password or wish to receive certain news or notifications by e-mail."

kingboo · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:24am

touche' Mr. Fix.........touche'

and as for your comment Boswell..........may i ask what good Turd's list will do the rest of us when we cant communicate with each other?........because his website is down?....... i don't think you get my point.

kingboo · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:26am

Should we assume Turd will contact us all?

sounds a bit iffy to me.......not that he would not try....just that he may not be able to....for "other reasons"....lol

ivars · Dec 28, 2012 - 1:36am

GSR and pitchfork

GSR moved down yesterday a bit with PM prices rising, but nothing conclusive. It may be that today is another flat day with lower highs:

The pitchfork I still use proved very resilient to the silver attempts to move above it, the top of it (100 here) being hit 3 times during yesterdays and Asian highs, spot on, but unable to cross. Seems like silver is poised in a position max close to breakthrough if events turn out positive with fiscal cliff. That position is sliding lower close to 30 on Monday if nothing definitely positive happens today.

On other hand, if there are negative news, silver may abandon the attempt to stay close to the top line of the trend over weekend and move back to median, which would be around 29,5 on Monday morning. Today is again some expiry day, is it not?

· Dec 28, 2012 - 1:50am

Rtabit - Austerity

While I most certainly value your opinion, I am afraid that I failed to make my point earlier. Many thanks to all the posters who pointed out the vast geographical territory covered in San Bernardino County. I am convinced that the shutting of courthouses works a terrible disservice to the populace. Without access to the courts, we have no rule of law. Poor people cannot take a whole day off work, spend money traveling to and from court, and still believe that there is justice. Jurors from geographically distant locales cannot and will not travel 4-5 hours a day and then still be forced to endure another 6-7 hours a day sitting through trial, all for something like $25.00 per day, which does not even cover the costs for gas. And, respectfully, the number of courthouses is not the issue, though. The issue is different. Taxes went up, in a regressive manner, hitting those at the lower end harder than those at the top. And for that extra money confiscated from the state, the citizenry LOST THE USE OF SEVERAL COURTHOUSES! This is austerity, plain and simple. HIGHER TAXES FOR FEWER SERVICES. What services will be next to be whittled away, minimized then stopped altogether? As private businesses leave the state, draining the state of both payroll taxes and income/divided taxes, forcing the unemployed former workers onto state unemployment or disability rolls, will govt outlays increase or decrease? From what source will additional revenue to the state come from? California is Greece, right now. I am not spoiled in stating these facts. These are the facts. As far as court closures go, remember this, too. There is no Constitional right to a speedy civil trial. So what effect does a delayed trial date have? That means that there is no speedy resolution for disputes. This is a classic third world symptom. Why would a business open in California in this toxic environment? Why would a business stay? As a private lawyer, I have no shortage of clients, but, there may be a shortage for publically funded dispute resolution forums. For that problem, I am certain that market forces will provide a solution, as always. I am just being watchful, nimble, and ready to adapt as changes unfold. At some point, either as a result of marginal changes, or radical ones from a collapse scenario, the future course of dispute resolution will be revealed. For now, I am just surviving like every one else.

Mariposa de Oro · Dec 28, 2012 - 2:01am

22k gold shirt?

Hell YEAH! I'd wear one but it would have to show off the 'girls' a bit. Can't leave them out of the fun! wink

Boswell · Dec 28, 2012 - 2:27am

Kingboo

O.K., just post your phone number and we'll call you! ;-)

Don't the "moderators" have a copy?

He's got twitter and the old site too.

Some guy on the Daily Paul set up a voice mail box somewhere/somehow, that might work?

Strongsidejedi California Lawyer · Dec 28, 2012 - 3:13am

@ California Lawyer

I unfortunately have an answer to your question about "what is next" for the inland empire.

San Bernardino county extends from the Nevada county line (If you are in the parking lot of the outlet in Primm, Nevada and walk to the dirt on the far side of the parking lot, you are nearly or literally standing in San Bernardino County, California. So, if one were to buy that lot next to Primm, but on the California side of the border, you might need to drive 3 1/2 hours to the nearest court house to file that Title action.

On one end, having been literally mauled by a state agency that destroyed my business and the lives of thousands of families in the process, I will gladly see some of the ridiculous bureaucracy downsized. It is interesting that the judicary is shuttering its doors while the Executive branch seems to be overburdened with pensioners.

So, what's next?

The collapse of the healthcare system is in its full glory. Every major county has large hospitals collapsing and large managed care networks are similarly being impacted by the same crunch.

The end result is that if a citizen needs healthcare, you will get it from a person who is overworked, overstressed, and unable to function optimally.

San Bernardino city is chapter 9 bankrupt. So, how many premiums are being paid by city of San Bernardino right now?

Anyone got real data? Is Kaiser Foundation missing some premium money that sCalpers is claiming is theirs to take first?

California Lawyer said it correctly several weeks ago. CalPers was showing itself to be the true power structure running the state when it was able to walk into a federal bankruptcy court and claim to have the privilege of shoving every other creditor over the financial cliff first. 

azzatack · Dec 28, 2012 - 5:15am

@byzantium

Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital with unlimited oil wealth, bailed out Dubai to the tune of $10 billion. A lot of this cash (about $4 billion) went to the debt-laden and government-owned holding company Dubai World, which ran the ports business DP World (remember that ridiculous news story in the US when the mainstream US media got in a tizz and thought the Arabs were taking over all the domestic ports?) and Nakheel (builder of the Palm islands). Immediate concerns in 2009 were meeting the requirements of major bonds that were due to mature.

Dubai tried to use its limited oil (due to run out in an estimate 15 years) to create a world class city overnight and was certainly guilty of being over ambitious/greedy when the going was good, but things are always easier when you have the backstop of big brother based two hours up the road with unlimited oil wealth.

There were certain caveats to the 'loan'; Dubai's crowning glory and now the tallest building in the world changed names from 'Burj Dubai' to 'Burj Khalifa' (the name of the Abu Dhabi president) just weeks before completion and launch. One suspects that world-leading airline Emirates is also no longer Dubai-owned.

Don't believe all the bullsh*t negative stories that the mainstream media peddles about Dubai (particularly the Brit tabloids) - for all its faults, Dubai was exactly what the Western world asked for (a tolerant, liberal Muslim state located further east than Iraq that welcomed all nationalities/business and allowed US ships to dock throughout the Gulf war and still does).

When Dubai was growing and working there was a sneering attitude from the West and a lot of false stories peddled (thousands of cars dumped at the airport etc - there's only about 400 spaces and these are used by travellers). The city was only really formed 50 years ago and there is much it can do better (worker rights etc), but it's the safest place I've ever lived and you're certainly not in any danger of getting your hands/head cut off! In five years I experienced zero crime and never once saw a bar fight!

ratioarbitrage · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:11am

Downward ellipse exhausted

The three-wave downward ellipses seen on the daily chart (started around 1 October) and the 15 minute chart (started around 15:45 GMT yesterday) have just been reproduced on the tick chart since 11:52 GMT, and are now exhausted. This appearance of the pattern at the shortest possible time frame does sometimes signal exhaustion of the move. I will therefore be monitoring the successive action - even in the tick chart but then of course at the longer time-frames to see whether it re-expands.

Byzantium · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:33am

@ azzatack

Thank you for the info; at the time, Dubai debt was a massive story, but seemed to be quietly dropped.

So based on your update, there was no debt default. The foreign banks were spared write downs, as were the issuers of debt insurance & CDS (credit default swaps). I wonder what damage would have been done, without the UAE bail out.

Presumably though, the cost of issuing new debt would have jumped up for Dubai, and has curtailed any construction programs that require fresh debt?

Cheers

ag1969 · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:35am
DayStar · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:35am

RE: Big Mac

Mr. Fix, you would be in hog heaven here. Last week our local McD's had a special where in celebration of 2012 they sold Big Macs for $1.12, limit 6. The local store was second in their franchise and sold over 2700 Macs during the one day sale. The store was run over by people. They had lines from open till close. They didn't even have time to empty the trash and it piled up on the floor. I helped them out with a limit buy of 6. Took the lettuce off and froze them, and I only have one left. sad

DayStar

ag1969 · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:38am

And as an off topic follow up...

....to my off topic cartoon.....

Do you really think it was guns? Or maybe, just maybe, the drugs have a little smidge of a connection...

https://ssristories.com/index.php

ag1969 · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:40am

DayStar

I would never have endured that line for just 6 BigMacs. Unless I can consume at least 500 grams of Saturated fat, it's just not worth the wait....for me!

opticsguy · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:43am

Mr. Fix

35 in a 30 zone, that sounds like Ohio.

Knock on wood, but the Police in the northern half of Dallas don't seem to be in the revenue business. Having watched SUVs drive through school zones at 60 MPH while texting, I wish they would maybe enforce a little more. IIRC, there was a traffic stop quota a few years back and the police union pushed back; writing a ticket meant getting out of your air-conditioned car and sweating.

That being said, each of the surrounding suburbs has nothing to do with their tax dollars except hire cops, so as you cross the city limit into those suburbs....slow down.

I've never encountered a DPS (re: cavity search) officer in all those years, but the Dallas police I know don't have much respect for them. 

rtabit · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:52am

@California Lawyer

If the definition of austerity is higher taxes for fewer services then you should be cheering it, it is the only possible solution, only question is if it’s too late or not. Not higher taxes for rich, higher taxes for middle class, there is not enough rich to make a difference and the last thing we need is for them to leave. I hate taxes, but we (someone) spent (got robbed) too much, it’s time to pay up. Higher taxes with lots of cuts is the only possible solution I see, maybe it won’t work, I doubt it will, but that doesn’t mean we should just give up, that’s what losers do, I was not raised to lose. So I see austerity as only possible way to win, maybe I’m wrong, but that’s where my thought process comes from.

Apparently San Bernardino is broke, going from six court houses to three sounds like a reasonable cut to me, the average person doesn’t go to court that often, so they are maybe inconvenienced a few times a year, I don’t consider being inconvenienced a few times a year a necessity, and if something isn’t a necessity I consider it a luxury. I was thinking austerity is when necessities got cut, but I guess I am wrong.

If the problem is the government is spending too much, which I assume most here think, I don’t understand the complaining when they cut services. You can’t complain when they spend and then complain when they cut, it’s not logical. Government sucks, give me some more.

EDIT: That's it for me, I don't want to talk about this anymore.

DayStar ag1969 · Dec 28, 2012 - 7:54am

RE: Big Mac Line

AG1969, it wasn't bad if one is, unlike many Americans, still able to get out of his car and walk inside. smiley

DayStar

achmachat · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:00am

BigMac

a Big Mac costs 3.49€ here (Luxembourg + Germany), which is 4.62 USD.

what's the usual non-discount price over there?

ClinkinKY · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:01am

Elections have consequences and this last one is...

...going to have even more consequences, given the SCOTUS "Justices" this administration has in mind to nominate over the next four years. This post is not intended to pit one religion against another but merely to point out the convoluted reasoning exhibited by this particular SC "Justice". This type of "reasoning" is going to be applied to the 1st Amendment, the 2nd Amendment...any Amendment they don't agree with.

You know, "social justice" versus "constitutional".

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sotomayor Ruled in Favor of Muslim Inmate’s Ramadan Dinner But Rejected Christian Hobby Lobby’s Appeal for HHS Exemption

read more:https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/12/sotomayor-ruled-in-favor-of-muslim-inmate-denied-ramadan-meal-but-rejects-hobby-lobby-christian-appeal-for-hhs-exemption/

Argyrocatharsis · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:01am

Re: HATE is such a strong word

10,000 hat tips Argyrocatharsis!!!

When human beings begin acting like two legged mammals and stop encroaching on the rights of law abiding citizens, then we won't need cops. Everyday of my lifed, 10 times a day, I encounter people breaking road laws and endangering the life's of good drivers. They barrel through a red light only to stop at the next one. We need more cops on the road and an entire prison system to deal with the assholes that I encounter just going to the mall.

Byzantium · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:03am

@rtabit

The spending vs austerity debate is a bit more complex.

Most expenditure is either wasteful, or counterproductive. Nobody in politics is permitting the topic of 'what has to be cut.' There are too many sacred cows. In fact, everything is a sacred cow; nothing is allowed to be cut at a Federal level.

Armies of Government bureaucrats are wasteful, as are a hundred or so military bases around the world in a vainglorious attempt to be global policeman.

Bailing out wall street was and is a stupendous waste of money.

Some expenses (such as welfare) are not easily described as wasteful, but are certainly counterproductive when excessively generous. And something like medicaid, can only be bourne if the country can afford it.

Government everywhere, frames the debate in terms of 'if you want your schools and hospitals, then you must pay the tax.' The truth of the matter is, they divert so much of our tax money, to things we would never agree to. There is no need to pay more tax, or even the level we pay now. We should just stop bombing other countries, stop importing welfare recipients from abroad, and stop bailing out the banks.

azzatack · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:17am

@byzantium

I believe there were some defaults (e.g Dubai Drydocks World) but the major commitments such as DP World bonds and he Nakheel sukuk were met. It would have been a catastrophe if Abu Dhabi had not stepped in, but even so many construction projects cannot get funding and are on ice (for the best with some of the ridiculous projects that were announced such as The Universe!). You really had to be there to see how money can drain from a place literally overnight - tools were downed and everything ground to a halt...no one got paid, panic set in when people realised that their off-plan property would not be built for years, if at all. Dubai was a microcosm for the global credit crunch and that's why it got the international headlines.

For example, the second Palm island (Palm Jebel Ali) is complete in terms of land reclamation, but the money ran out for infrastructure and consequently a 7.5km x 7.5km man-made engineering feat lies empty in the Arabian Gulf. You can view the island from a nearby hotel and its incredible; it's just a shame nothing will ever be built on it!

At ground level there were write-offs across the board, with contractors (PR agencies, photographers, printers etc) told they would have to take a two thirds haircut otherwise they wouldn't get paid at all. A lot of people lost a lot of money, including property investors and end-users who had bought homes off-plan to ultimately live in that would never be built. This is where Dubai deserves criticism; as an immature country there really was no legislation or laws to protect the buyer and many people simply had to accept a property in another development or lose their money.

This is wear my conscious got the better of me... as a senior press officer at a company right in the thick of all of this it was my job to spin and keep a lid on things - as soon as ordinary people began to be affected it was time for me to bail. I still need to spend five years working at a charity otherwise I'm going to hell...

single6 · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:20am

If guns cause crime then

If guns cause crime then forks made Rosie fat. Guns are tools, minutes after each shooting what happens.......yep. hundreds of NRA members that are cops and parametics show up to make the area safe. Oh and the good guys bring guns......... name me one shooter just one that was an NRA member......yep I know you cant......but logic is the first one to leave the room with progressives.

good luck with enforcing any ban 

LEOs better wake up too. Is your life worth enforcing a door to door ban? Do you support the Constitution or the current Congress?

Can any member of the current GOP tell me how if Romney won Diane would not do the same, the pressure of a ban would be the same..... hell he signed a Ban...... something Obama has not done yet.

Time for the state GOP to get some liberty religion and never again ask a liberal RINO to run for a national presidency.

There is always Article 5 convention. or if that dont work seceding

Larry · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:21am

San Bernardino

Mediation and arbitration opportunity. Lemonade out of lemons.

That, or Judge Roy Bean franchise.

DayStar achmachat · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:29am

RE: Big Mac

Achmachat, I don't usually buy them. Those 6 I bought were the first I had purchased in many years, but I think they run about $3.50 as a single sandwich.

DayStar

Larry · Dec 28, 2012 - 8:30am

Banish Piers Morgan?

Send him to a place where nobody in their right mind will have to watch or hear him?

People... that's already been done. CNN is that place.

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