Very Early Monday

Mon, Dec 24, 2012 - 1:24am

It's going to be a while before I can write up a full new post so, with the current post pushing 40,000 views, I thought I'd better give you a new thread to chew on overnight.

I hope that Uncle Ted doesn't mind. He's the patriarch of our movement and, as you know, I hold him in very high regard. I would strongly encourage you to consider subscribing to his site, especially at this critical moment in our history.

Following along with the previous post here at TFMR, Uncle Ted crafted these two paragraphs in his "Weekly Review" back on Saturday. Concise but with an added level of detail I failed to provide, these two paragraphs provide an essential background to the entire silver manipulation story.

"The danger of a further sharp silver sell-off still exists because JPMorgan’s concentrated short position still exists. Based upon physical market considerations, there is also a danger that JPMorgan could lose control and silver could explode. That’s what’s wrong with a concentrated position and manipulated market in the first place. Through the cut-off date, JPMorgan was still short 34,000 contracts, down 1500 for the reporting week. Remarkably, this is still a third of the entire net short side of COMEX silver (minus spreads) and represents more than 22% of annual world mine production. Here’s another tidbit – the 170 million oz of equivalent silver that JPMorgan is short on the COMEX is more than 20% of the all the visible silver bullion in the world (817 million oz – source

To give you a sense of the dimensions of holding a paper short position of this magnitude in gold, silver’s precious metal sister, please consider that if one entity held 20% of the two billion oz (minimum) of all visible gold bullion in the world short on the COMEX, it would require a short position of 4 million COMEX contracts, nearly ten times the current total open interest. (2 billion oz gold oz X 20% and then converted into 100 oz COMEX contracts). My point here is that the more you compare JPMorgan’s concentrated silver short position to other markets, the more you are amazed at the audacity of their silver manipulation."

I'll have a full, updated post in 12 hours or so. Until then, good luck and btfd.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


tpbeta · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:42pm


I have no idea if you're a troll or not. Only you can look into your soul on that one.

However I'm pretty sure that the people making extreme projections have no compelling evidence to offer other than their sometimes careworn credibility Which isn't to say such things can't happen. I'm still amazed at the price action these last 3 months so wtf do I know.

But I'll say this much. Anyone predicting an imminent Comex default is a knave or a fool in my book. Ditto anyone who denies the current price falls are the result of big bank manipulation.

Just my opinion, but you have to filter this stuff somehow.

¤ · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:43pm


It's been an interesting last 5 days.

Imagine what next year might bring when tens of trillions more yen is added to the FX market....and more USD and EUR etc. 

US Dollar/Japanese Yen (FOREX:USDJPY)


Euro/Japanese Yen (FOREX:EURJPY)

Patrancus · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:49pm

Merry Christmas, now pony up

Clinton's tax rates just a few days away, now who's tax rates do you love more? Clinton or Bush

Its about F ing time somebody writes a piece about this truth unraveling before it was realized by most of the ignorant and dumbed down 47% of the American population

rl999 · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:50pm

Holiday sales way down

Holiday Retail Sales Growth Comes At Just 0.7% — Weakest Since 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. holiday retail sales this year grew at the weakest pace since 2008, when the nation was in a deep recession. In 2012, the shopping season was disrupted by bad weather and consumers' rising uncertainty about the economy.

A report that tracks spending on popular holiday goods, the MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, said Tuesday that sales in the two months before Christmas increased 0.7 percent, compared with last year. Many analysts had expected holiday sales to grow 3 to 4 percent.

In 2008, sales declined by between 2 percent and 4 percent as the financial crisis that crested that fall dragged the economy into recession. Last year, by contrast, retail sales in November and December rose between 4 percent and 5 percent, according to ShopperTrak, a separate market research firm. A 4 percent increase is considered a healthy season.

daveyboy · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:50pm

Too Billy by the way....thank

To Billy by the way....thank you for the link which I will check out but my immediate response to the content of your message not under estimate the amount of silver which can be flooded onto the market (recyclable silver) do not under estimate the number of people underwater who are needing to sell silver, do not under estimate the capacity of retailers to talk up shortages, do not under estimate just how significant silver is to industrial demand and as for historical is another one for you paper currency has been around for hundreds of years but yet a cashless society (it would appear) is just around the corner i.e. nothing stays the same. Indeed, this is one of the reasons why Armstrong believes that gold will rise considerably because of the black market or underground economy that will emerge. However if you do want to reference empirically then you can also see examples where the ratio of silver to gold far exceeded 50:1 and yet there is chris duane telling everyone it's definitely going to 10:1. Furthermore....some of the so called gold bugs believe that silver will continue to crash through support and yet gold will keep rising.

It's a frickin mine field out there.

Silver Passion · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:51pm

I'm Prepared for silver

to go down to 20's, but most likely it'll be $26. Sell? no, way. And from what I see on ebay, you can't get those great deals anymore because few ARE selling, no matter what the paper price of silver is. Believe me, I tried to get some deals on ebay for XMAS, but prices are still very high. Also, I don't see people ever selling silver on craigslist anymore. I used to see ads on craigslist, have bought silver there are few times...but not any more....So where are all these people who are selling whenever the price drops? They don't exist....They are buying !! They are BTFD.

Byzantium · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:53pm

2013 predictions

Max Keiser, Jim Willie, Gerald Celente, to name but a few, are all explicitly calling for a bond crash in 2013, that will precipitate an economic firestorm.

Were the predictions for 2012 as resolutely apocalyptic as this? I can't remember, but my recollection was that they were not so time specific and urgent as this.

On the counter argument, Jim Willie's predication of a Morgan Stanley failure, has not materialised.

And with reference to Mr Fix's links above, it seems that gun confiscation in the US is a necessary prelude to a dollar collapse, so that would indicate that we are not near a systemic collapse yet.

daveyboy · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:56pm

tpbeta, I don't ever recall

tpbeta, I don't ever recall dismissing the notion of manipulation, you bet your ass there is manipulation. They spike it up, then pull the rug out from underneath you. Clearly anyone that could honestly tell you there is no mass manipulation is a liar or delusional and in thin markets it is much easier to push the markets around and silver is a damn tiny market.

¤ · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:56pm

Because nothing is on TV except basketball....

Video unavailable

James Cameron teams up with NASA scientists to explore the Mid-Ocean Ridge, a submerged chain of mountains that band the Earth and are home to some of the planet's most unique life forms.

rl999 · Dec 25, 2012 - 7:59pm

Flash crash, or just normal shenanigans


it shows the Nikkei chart here, but not on the page. Nice steep drop and immediate recovery, with another drop.

old tradesman · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:02pm

isnt this woderful

what if? we all are right? Paper goes down! Physical goes up! two subjects! Sale when papers down right before a world wide fiat war tells you too. Yes the tradesman is back! After reading many great theories of both paper/physical. I think that your posts should actually put your thoughts with a PH or a Pap, for there is both on this site, for not to get misunderstood..

tradesman out ( PH ) Just an old mans WTFDIK

tpbeta · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:03pm

@ daveyboy

I don't recall accusing you of anything at all. Certainly I myself have predicted a fall below $26 in the past (completely wrongly and to my great cost, I should add.) I merely say there are a number of trolls and pumpers about, and one should be careful who one listens to. 

rl999 · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:04pm

holiday cheer

BREAKING: D.C. Police Investigating NBC’s David Gregory’s High Cap Mag Crime

(This is one of the top "gun" sites by rating/ranking. Check it out a few days in a row, they are balanced and logical.)

Extra link

daveyboy · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:09pm

I am not sure if it's simply

I am not sure if it's simply always one thing and one thing only, but there is manipulation, just for me it's too simplistic to determine that this fell simply because of x or y. When you get traders determining the price of something then there is so much distortion as there are so many positions taken.

old tradesman · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:13pm

@ daveyboy

there are so many x's and y's that don't make since is the problem. 

rl999 · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:13pm

Mr. Dotcom..A patriot? A rebel?

Is what he does good, bad, indifferent? Is he just a stubborn a*, is he fighting for internet freedom, or just ripping off hollywood. IDK, but at least he is tenacious.

Link (dailypaul)

AC_Doctor · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:13pm

Holy price spike in....

Holy price spike in Black rifles! 3 months ago they were selling a plain jane Colt 6920 for 1k.. Now they are $2500 on the EE at!!! It looks like the Obozo clown will be Firearms salesmen of the year for 2010 & 2013...

Mr. Fix · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:13pm

I have been trying to post an article on a forum,

 but when I press send, I wind up on “page not found”, and the post will not publish.

 Is anyone else experiencing similar difficulties?

daveyboy · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:17pm

Mr Fix....if it goes down on

Mr Fix....if it goes down in that manner, then a buy and hold strategy of metals is illogical as the price will be determined by a bunch of psychopathic gangsters anyway.

Kuchek · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:18pm

Merry Pagan Solstice

The local station in town just puts out the best classic country jams. Personal Favorite. I was wondering how the open would go this evening. Down. Surprise. Back to the jams. Happy Holidays all.

daveyboy · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:19pm

I am not getting at anything

I am not getting at anything other than what was mentioned above, have pm's as part of a portfolio but don't put an unwavering faith in them and them only. :)

Mr. Fix · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:20pm

@ Byzantium

Okay, I have enjoyed much of what you have posted in the last couple of days, and although I have kept up my reading, I have had little to say.

 I most certainly would not come to the conclusion that the economic collapse that has long been forecasted is some distance off into the future, solely on the fact that we still own guns.

 Last week, DayStar speculated that it would be more likely that our government would allow the people to just shoot it out for a while first, and that makes sense for two reasons, the population control that they seem to be so interested in would take care of itself in the near-term, as all of the divided factions would just blast off amongst themselves.

 Then for the totalitarian dictatorship to be imposed, it will be much easier after a protracted civil/Revolutionary war.

 So in essence what I'm saying, you can trigger the economic collapse, have half the gun owners blow their own heads off, and then take away what's left, with little or no opposition.

 These people are evil, but they are not stupid.

 Therefore, I can conclude conclusively that they are ready to initiate this plan at the time of their choosing,

 which can literally be any day now.

 The end of part two concludes by stating that we would know that it was about to happen when the precious metals started dropping in value. Sound familiar?

 I've been saying for a while now that the precious metals would collapse in value (due to their worthless paper nature)

 before we got a systemic collapse and reset.

 I see no reason why current events could not be interpreted in that way.


 and I just wanted to briefly address your various TPTB scenarios on the previous page,

 a dollar collapse is already a mathematical certainty, the powers that be our only choosing the time and place, not whether or not.

 Seeing as their biggest fear is that gold and silver will get away from them in price, and be seen as an alternative currency, it is reasonable to assume that the dollar is in its final throes, and the collapse is imminent.

 I do not believe that the preservation of their "almighty dollar" is their primary objective,

 their only objective is to maintain their power.

 They will gladly collapse the dollar as a means to that end.

 There is no rational explanation as to why they would need to continue this farce any further,

 they already have all the pieces in place to take it to the next step.

 And they do not procrastinate.

¤ · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:21pm

The Yen

Funny things going on with it.

After it hit 85.15 it then plunged to 84.75 only to zip right back up to 85.37 

Something big is percolating in CB land.

Go here>>> Yen

Byzantium · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:25pm

@ Mr Fix

Regarding gun abolition as a prelude to economic collapse; you say that it is not needed, fair enough.

I am just playing devil's advocate, and extrapolating the implications of the links that you provided.

Its all good stuff, in stimulating the thought process. Predicting timelines is difficult with regards to identifying specific dates. Doing it through milestones is a bit easier; the timing will take care of itself. Gun control as a planned prelude to planned economic collapse, is a notion for the reader to consider, and be aware of. I certainly have no inside knowledge, or even hunches; I just draw attention to the potential link.

Thanks for all your contributions to the blog; always a good read!

Byzantium · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:26pm

@ DPH re the yen

thin volume?

Mr. Fix · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:26pm

RE, Mr Fix....if it goes down on Submitted by daveyboy

 You said:

" the price will be determined by a bunch of psychopathic gangsters"

That might be the first thing you said that makes sense.

 I however will take my chances, because at some point even the powers that be will need to resume something that resembles international trade.

 In an environment where absolutely nobody trusts anybody else, the precious metals will be viewed as the only possible currency that has no counterparty risk. It will have to be used to some extent, and it will have to be reevaluated at much higher levels.

 China seems to be investing heavily on a precious metals backed currency, and they will not be dissuaded.

 I'm willing to take my chances.

¤ · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:28pm


Thanks for your unwavering concern about our portfolio's and your outlooks on the future and what it might mean for PM's. You've made your point about diversification and it's a good one.

I think everyone knows about portfolio diversification at this stage and 4 days of saying the same thing drove your point home. Thanks.

philipat · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:33pm


I for one give you and every other poster a fair hearing, as I think do most folks here.

But I don't understand what you are saying. You seem to be arguing that in the event of sovereign defaults, commodities will collapse. Whereas, I would have thought that it is Government bonds and currencies, with a knock-on to equities, that would collapse and there would be a massive flight into hard assets, including commodities, and especially PM's. You then seem to argue that, therefore, you need to trade into fiat to protect against the coming commodity collapse. IMHO, that is not a very convincing argument. But in these days of Central Planning, I concede that anything is possible.

Disclosure. It makes no difference to me because PM's are just a part of my overall investment portfolio, heavily weighted towards hard assets overall. I stack as an insurance policy so I, as I think many here also, don't really care about price "Noise".

rl999 · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:36pm

Gerald Celente

Gerald Celente: "Chinese Economy Is On A Verge Of Collapse, The EU Division Of Goldman Sachs Gang Says Unlimited Money For Europe,The Great War Is On The Way"

Mr. Fix · Dec 25, 2012 - 8:37pm

@ Byzantium

 Actually, what I'm saying is that the economic collapse, and the complete destruction of the dollar, will be used as a prelude to confiscate all the guns, not the other way around.

 It makes more sense that way.

 And they can proceed at any moment, there is no longer anything that they need to wait for.


In case you are new here, or in case your name is Turd, we are currently discussing “the end of the great Keynesian experiment".

 By the very nature of this discussion, putting a succession of events in order to determine the probability of accuracy, is part of the discussion. This is in no way shape or form a “gun-control discussion,”

 it is merely an attempt to unravel the planned collapse of our civilized society and the order in which it will play out.

 So I don't want to hear all about taking to a forum,

 and don't forget, the alleged “DHS insider” did say that we would know it was happening when the precious metals tanked.

 This all seems highly relevant.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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