Some Charts

283
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers) & (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/why-oils-post-qe-plunge-may-be-over) and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.

TF

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  283 Comments

¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:42pm

beastly v. mudbone

Only kidding.....just imagine the Hulkster and Fedor in their primes going at it? What a match that would be if it were in an octagon and for real.

I'd give Fedor the edge because of his martial arts background but the Hulkster was the Hulkster for a reason.

Hulk in prime...

Fedor in prime...

proton777
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:42pm

Fiscal Cliff

appears to be right in front of us. The "Plan B" that the House Republicans hoped for didn't have enough votes. Thus, the massive selling.

Argent
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:44pm

Death of Paper Markets

As far as I am concerned this stinks of 1 of 2 things,

1)Whoever wants out does not care what the price is,logical thing would be sacking paper to get physical.

2)No deal on the Fiscal Cliff therefore knock the price down as low as possible and wait for the huge rise.

Either way I don,t give a toss,still stackin and ain,t selling physical.

MUDbone
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:46pm

Fedor vs Hulk would look like this

Fedor Emelianenko vs Hong Man Choi
¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:53pm

Tough markets...fear not...

...Ok...might be time to start worrying

If it's any consolation to anyone curled up in a pill bug fetal position it's been 12/21 on the other side of the planet for about 9 hours. It's safe to come out.

¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 9:58pm

Today in History for December 20th

Today in History for December 20th
hsofiak
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:00pm

Shortages? Explanation?

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WhyMeLord
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:03pm

Where is the Fat Lady?

Some possible perspectives to consider...

I put the links in as they don't always post correctly on this site...

Whatzza few dollars here or there, we all know which way it's going in the future. Traders have one view, investors another.

Whatever floats yer boat!!!!

Gold: 1630 or 1580?

Silver: 28?

agNau
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:05pm
¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:11pm

Vicarious ~ Tool

Tool - Vicarious

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:19pm

Strange to see a chart like this

and have it NOT be gold or silver...

Bongo Jim
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:20pm
¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:29pm

China and their 'Plan': The Yuan

China Plans Making Yuan More Flexible After Global Easing

By Bloomberg News - Dec 20, 2012 9:37 PM ET

China will increase the movement of the yuan’s exchange rate “appropriately” to handle the latest rounds of quantitative easing by the world’s central banks, the official Xinhua News Agency said in an editorial.

The government of Asia’s biggest economy will ensure “reasonable” monetary-base growth and keep sufficient liquidity to allow businesses to obtain loans, according to the editorial, which was also posted on China’s main central- government website.

“The long-run policy of the Chinese government is to increase flexibility of the renminbi, so it’s still an open question whether this will signify any major change in practices,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said by phone from London. “The government’s view seems to be now that the renminbi is close to its fair value, there are lower risks allowing more movement.”

China’s new leadership, headed by incoming president Xi Jinping, said last week it will retain “prudent” monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy in 2013. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced last week plans to start buying $45 billion a month of Treasury securities from January, in addition to $40 billion a month of existing mortgage-debt purchases. Japan’s central bank expanded its asset-buying program for the third time in four months yesterday, increasing it to 76 trillion yen ($903 billion) from 66 trillion yen.

Global Currency

China is seeking to bolster the use of yuan in international trade and finance to reduce the U.S. dollar’s global dominance and curb its own reliance on the currency of the world’s biggest economy. The nation’s foreign-exchange reserves are the world’s largest at $3.29 trillion.

China scrapped a dollar peg in July 2005, allowing the currency to appreciate 21 percent until July 2008, including an initial, single-day gain of 2 percent. Gains were halted for almost two years to help exporters weather a global recession and the currency has advanced some 10 percent against the greenback since controls were loosened on June 19, 2010.

The People’s Bank of China sets a daily reference rate for the yuan based on market makers’ quotations and the spot contract in Shanghai can trade as much as 1 percent on either side. It last increased the band on April 16, the first expansion since 2007. The yuan is a denomination of China’s currency, the renminbi, and has touched both ends of the range since April’s move.

Trading Band

The next band widening is forecast to happen by the end of next year, according to 12 of 20 analysts surveyed last month by Bloomberg News. Eight said they expect a move in 2014. The trading band will probably be expanded to allow a maximum diveragence from the reference rate of 1.5 percent to 2 percent, all but three predicted.

The yuan has appreciated 1 percent versus the greenback this year and touched a 19-year high of 6.2223 per dollar on Nov. 27. The currency slipped 0.03 percent today to 6.2321 as of 10:05 a.m. in Shanghai, a level 0.91 percent stronger than the central bank fixing of 6.2881.

China needs to strengthen the flexibility of the two-way movement of the exchange rate while keeping the exchange rate basically stable, Caixin Online reported yesterday, citing Li Dongrong, deputy governor of the central bank.

While widening the yuan trading band is “the obvious direction,” the government may not do so because it could attract speculative capital betting on yuan appreciation, Williams said.

Liu Mingkang, former head of China Banking Regulatory Commission, predicted Hong Kong and China will face extended inflows of so-called hot money, The Standard newspaper reported today in the city, citing an interview. The yuan is close to equilibrium level and has room for small, “sustained” appreciation in the long run, Shanghai Securities News reports, citing a report from the government-run State Information Center.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/china-plans-yuan-flexibility-a...

Bill of Rights
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:37pm
Katie Rose
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:43pm

I think I'm a troll...

I'm not been watching the markets much, there is simply too much going on around here. The last three days we have received two feet of snow, which means an unbelievable amount of shoveling and plowing to just get to the barn and down to the road. I spun out on our driveway and found myself wedged between a retaining wall of huge monster rocks and a 30 foot drop off into our seasonal creek. I totally blocked the driveway. Everybody was furious with me. Nobody knew what to do.

I think about those who first settled this country without the help of electricity, gas, automobiles, chain saws, tractors, modern tools and I marvel. All day long as I was shoveling heavy snow I kept asking, "How did they do it? How did the women do it? Life must have been so hard for them. Children under feet, no washing machines, no store to run to...."

I came in last night from shoveling and read some of the thread and decided that in many ways I am a troll. When I first arrived here I was hoping to learn how to trade metals. Turd taught me that if I wanted to lose all my money I could go right ahead. I learned from him that we have criminals guarding criminals and there will be no justice. And so now I come to this metals blog and talk about goats and farming and trying to be prepared for the future.

As time has passed I have become far more concerned about people having enough healthy food to eat than enough metals stacked. Anyone with half a brain can tell that the US Gov't buying it's own debt can not/will not end well. We have thousands of years of history to learn from. Dishonest money brings revolution, war and collapse.

But we don't have much history of GMO foods, hybrid seeds, terminator seeds, large scale corporate farming, depleted aquifers, etc. We are in unknown territory here. We are removed from the land and don't know how to garden, prune fruit trees, harvest grains, take care of farm animals, milk goats. Maybe we don't need to. Maybe I am just too tired from all the snow shoveling to think straight. What I am certain of is as the dollar loses its value and reserve currency status things are going to change in ways we can not imagine now.

So I earnestly hope that as you gather information about metals you also gather information about food and food storage. Our way of life depends upon petroleum, and as our dollar is replaced by gold and other currencies the price of petroleum is going to change the way we farm. Food is going to be more expensive, much more expensive. It's a given.

My 87 year old Mom looked out at the snow last night and became very distraught. "Katie Rose," she asked, "Do we have enough food?" She lived through the Depression as a child without a Mother, and she remembers how hungry she was. "We're just fine, Mother. We're just fine. You don't need to worry. We'll take good care of you." I replied.

Depressions bring hunger. Please prepare accordingly.

Beastly Stack
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:46pm

Couple Of Thoughts

My Christmas starts NOW.A couple of times In the past I have mentioned that everyone will be beaten to shit with these markets and at that point it will take off to the upside with alot of players off the train.Well I made decent money going long in the past 2 days and got out a little while ago @1644.Let's see what I miss tomorrow!Time for the family now.

I have been so disgusted lately with these criminal antics.I feel the true value of Gold is more than double where it is now and the True Value of The Dow Jones is about double of what it should be.It boggles my mind how the media does play a role in this each day.I feel we are reaching the point where the markets are too dependent on the Fed and European government officials to come up with something new to keep the sugar high going.We are watching total insanity right before our very eyes.

I am going to enjoy the next 5 days with my family and try my best to keep the markets off my mind.I would like to wish all of Turdville Happy Holidays.

Turd Ferguson-Thank You for all that you do!Merry Christmas

kingboo
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:46pm

@Bill of Rights.......

that's your proof?........ maybe we should just stick to praying for the families

jolidacrown
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:50pm

Alternative View

"What these charts are telling us is that at least for the intermediate term the world looks like it’s not going to go to hell in a hand basket right away. So is this the cause for the weakness in the precious metals complex? Money is flowing into the world stock markets instead of the precious metals. Also as long as the world stock markets stay strong will that put pressure on the PM complex regardless of which way the dollar moves? For the time being this is how I”m going to view the intermarket relationship with the US dollar and the precious metals complex until something changes. All the best…Rambus"

https://rambus1.com/?p=9084

Ferd Torgerson Bill of Rights
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:50pm

@ BOR

Did you post the wrong video?

Didn't see much in the way of laughter, if any. What I mostly saw was likely a sleep-deprived father grieving for a lost child. I would guess that in such circumstances, most any parent might well behave just as he did.

Bill of Rights
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:53pm

Kingboo, did I touch a Nerve?

Kingboo, did I touch a Nerve?

Bill of Rights Ferd Torgerson
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:57pm

First 12 seconds is not

First 12 seconds is not Laughter on your end, and this is the look of a tired individual? which part? and why the denial?

FleetFeet
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:05pm

Bill of Rights

Unless you know some secret information you failed to post, you are way off-base with your "hoax" attitude about that video.

Smiles and laughter may be rare, but they can be legitimate responses to trauma. I once comforted a woman who kept bursting into laughter while she stood 15 feet from her father's corpse. For her, it was laugh or collapse and pass-out.

¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:06pm

L.A. Woman

Video unavailable
Video unavailable

TexasStacker
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:10pm

Riddle me this...

Why would a Nation that predominently identifies itself as Christian (even going so far as to proclaim their trust in their God on their money) place any creedence at all in a pagan Mayan prediction of the end?

Probably the same reason they murder children every day through the sin of abortion and say nothing.

sorry board, its been a bad day and the 4 percent drop in silver isnt even the half of it. not to mention what tomorrows market is shaping up to be.

tmosley TexasStacker
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:22pm

@TexasStacker

Not to defend end of the world hokum, but the Mayan Calendar ending isn't necessarily religious. It's astronomical.

¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:23pm

The World is a Vampire

It's a cruel world, nothing more, nothing less.

It's not as sour as it sounds, just the cold reality of dog eat dog.

The Smashing Pumpkins - Bullet with Butterfly Wings
Mr. Fix
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:33pm

RE, Alternative View, Why I don't like charts.

It has been a very long day, and I'm just going to go to sleep a little bit early tonight.

After reading the post entitled “Alternative View” just above, it made me realize that I hadn't posted all night long.

I wasn't going to anyway, since I really have a disdain for trying to predict anything with a chart.

But in the post "Alternative View", it says that somehow these charts are telling him that everything's okay, and explains why money is pouring into stocks, and out of precious metals. I suppose charts work a lot like statistics, you can interpret them anyway you want.

Heck, I've even felt that way about the Bible, but I digress.

The person that made that quote is desperately trying to find an explanation that does not include manipulation. That is one seriously lost soul, or a statist tool.

I'm probably just wearing blinders, because I know a lot of people that are far better educated than myself look at charts every day to determine their course of action in these markets. Could somebody tell me what the validity of using a chart to predict what is coming is when there is obviously no correlation between what is happening as compared to the fundamentals?

We all know that it is being manipulated, all that's left to do is try to figure out what the endgame is.

Charts are not going to tell us that. This I firmly believe.

Do your charts tell you when we are going to hit a bottom?

If so, where is it? If you took away the chart, then could you ask why there has to be a bottom?

Just some thoughts before I doze off, I heard somewhere tonight that tomorrow is the end of the world as we know it, I'll see you then.

Good night.

tyberious
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:35pm

hummm

Is not murder more sin full?

philipat
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:41pm

DPH

The night landing at LAX is, IMHO, far better with the Sugar Cult "Los Angles"sound track. Same vid.

Video unavailable
¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:44pm

philipat

I look yours better

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