Emotions In Check

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 10:03am

 Man, these days are tough, aren't they? If you're new to trading and stacking the PMs, get used to this wrung-out and frustrated feeling. Because both metals are overtly and covertly manipulated by The Cartel, they are subject to these reversals that seem to come from nowhere. One day, you're right and everyone in the world seems to be catching on. But, on the next day, the C/C/C changes the rules in their favor and you tumble into the pit of despair. Have faith, my friends, as this too shall pass. Not without more wailing and grinding of teeth first, but, this too shall pass.

Let me ask you this: What has changed since Wednesday?

Has the U.S. suddenly gotten it's budget balanced? (Did anyone even notice the "failed" 30-year auction yesterday? Oh yea. How could you? CNBS deleted Santelli's "rating" from their video library.)

Are Italy and Spain suddenly solvent? Italy's debt-to-GDP is still 118%, isn't it? It's still going to take upwards of $3T euro to "bail them out". This math is impossible because that's still about 20% of Europa's GDP, right?

Last I checked, several big, European banks are teetering on the edge of insolvency due to their government bond and CDS exposure. Has this changed?

In the U.S., Bank of America is insolvent due to a terrible book of mortgages and an even more awful book of CDS exposure. Is that even fixable?

I could go on and on but I think you get the point. The W.O.P.R. machnes are dumping the gold they acquired earlier this week. Let 'em. You and I will just use this opportunity to quietly stack a little more. If you're trading, you can buy this dip at the levels shown below. Just be sure to buy yourself plenty of time. Nothing sucks more than having the right trade but having the sand pass through the hourglass before being proven correct.



More later, after we see what kind of fun the day brings. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Animal Sacrifice · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:22am

What has changed since Wednesday?

The price of Gold.

@Mumbo Jumbo: "Sir, I have studied the matter you have not!" Sir Isaac Newton, astrologer to Haley of Comet fame (who was a disbeliever in astrology.)

Ogun chorro chorro

The Vet bolweevil · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:24am

CME vs. J6P

If gold (PM's) is (are) a "safe haven" asset for retail investors why do CME margin hikes have such a crushing effect on spot price?

They don't directly affect anything but they are used to talk down confidence in the metal and the market. Margin hikes do not affect any long who intends to take delivery. He is going to pay the full price regardless. However COMEX is not really a physical market; it's a casino that bets on the bets. Ultimately the hundreds of thousands of contracts for gold end up with just a handful being delivered. COMEX delivery is a very clumsy and expensive way to buy gold and they want to keep it that way. 

COMEX contracts are just paper, backed by very little gold but for the present time those paper contracts are said to set the price. It is backed up by the LBMA which purports to trade millions of ounces of PMs every day. If you check their web site carefully they admit that they are actually a paper market and while they shuffle paper that supposedly represents more gold than actually exists above ground, the real metal at their disposal is miniscule in comparison. The big players in COMEX also set the London prices so the whole thing is a circle jerk....

vonburpenstein · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:24am


...When things start going the way we all want them to (and we know they will!) and when we look back at when silver was the 30s (just like many of us do when it was in the tens, teens and twenties), WHICH SIDE OF THE CREEK ARE YOU GONNA BE ON? If you've got cash - effin JUMP!...if you don't then just do the best you can. I ain't smart enough to play with paper but putting some FIZZ in the hole is a no brainer..."quit jackin and start stackin" BURP OUT!

BagOfGold · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:28am

Most of the penny miners...

on "the list" are up!...Do you have that "sinking" feeling...you are going to be left behind?!?...

Bag Of Gold

Iowegian · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:30am


I continue to monitor the Grandich's blog. He pretty well nailed this latest down-turn in Gold (again). Sometimes when the charts do not make much sense, Grandich has an uncanny knack giving buy and sell signals. 

He has nice posts again today:


" I remain constructively long-term bullish on silver. I think any correction should be limited to the previous May-July lows and the 50-Day M.A. As previously stated, the party(s) who said silver will never see $50 again in their lifetime must not have much of a life expectancy."


MonkeySmoke · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:35am

nothing has changed and neither...

has my mood. I am, fortunately, more aware and more comfortable today than I was in April. This latest beat down was expected, which was the basis of my "Week Ending Guess" of $1764.43. I am new to all this, first major purchase was in late February of this year--stacker, not a trader. I am a lot more comfortable, thanks to Turd (he knows his $hit!!), Trader Dan, KWN and other, equally great, sources. AS stated I am not a trader, but all you traders--the good guys--have a wonderful insight that is EXTREMELY HELPFUL to people like myself. Sorry I missed the call, my wife would have loved to seen a SECOND yellow hat!!!! Thank you, Turd, for your insight and willingness to help. Thank you to each of you that contribute to knowledge base. It takes each of us, even the shills/trolls that occasionally show up and are soon routed!!

Red Pill BagOfGold · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:35am


what is this list to which you refer? linky please? 

ross1119 · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:37am

May I be so naive to posit

We here on tfmetals all acknowledge that gold and silver are blatantly and severely manipulated by the FOD (forces of darkness). If the game is rigged, then why play?

If the EE can get free money from the FED who then also gets free money from i don't freakin know, lets say, thin air. And their resources are unlimited, how can I or we with our limited resources stand a chance against these raids that "come out of nowhere".

I don't know about you guys but i am really frustrated! I'm tired of fighting the EE and the CME and the FED.

If their line in the sand is 50 for silver, and they have unlimited funds to short, why would they let the price rise but just to give the appearance of fair play??? They are too bold face for that, no?

Have a good weekend all

bolweevil The Vet · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:45am

Thank you.

stop jackin keep stackin helps too

BagOfGold Red Pill · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:46am

Red Pill...

Let's make this fun...kind of like doing your own due dilligence!...I will give you a "few clues"...where you may be able to find "the list"!!!...


Hopefully...I'll see you there!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Red Pill BagOfGold · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:48am

Gracias mi amigo, there's a

Gracias mi amigo, there's a very good chance of that. wink

Hopefully...I'll see you there!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Adam Smith ScottJ · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:48am

@Scott J Re Thanks for keeping it in check Turd

Ron Paul won the "online" straw poll in Iowa in convincing fashion.


Please support Congressman Paul!


Silver Dan · Aug 12, 2011 - 11:52am


Contest from Monday:

"P.S. Time for another contest. Please post your guess for the Comex closing price of the September gold contract for this coming Friday, the 12th. The winner gets a hat!!"

My guess was:

Silver Dan's picture

Contest Entry

Submitted by Silver Dan on August 8, 2011 - 3:10pm. Hat Tip! 0

$1719 (and hoping I'm wrong).

I really wanted to be at least $150 off.

H - original · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:00pm
HeNateMe Vypuero · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:02pm

Moon Phase

Correct Mumbo. People get rich because of education, work, and A LOT of luck. Not because of excessive low tides, the sighting of tears on a Virgin Mary statue, or mind over matter. Put your money where you think is best. You might be right, you might be wrong. My money is in silver and a bit of gold. If I'm wrong then I'll make shiny jewelry and mark it up 500%.

Red Pill Victor123 · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:03pm

not qualified..

@Red Pill

So what would be peak price, 200$?

Im not an expert, but I've read a few.

  • The average rise this decade, the price would hit $39.41
  • The average gain excluding 2008 = $41.51
  • Last year’s advance = $56.22
  • The 1979 gain of 267.5% = $113.59

It is interesting to note that the above $175 is almost identical to the $178.50 that would result from a reversion to the mean in the gold:silver ratio with gold at $2,500. For the gold bugs who believe that gold is going to go even higher it can only mean a very much higher price for silver as the analyses below suggest.



¤ · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:03pm

SLW call options/ Last comment

Just to put the SLW option mayhem to bed.

Just looking at the chart again for this a.m. after it's gained some backdrop to compare it to and it's obvious a spike in price happened right after the market opened and probably why those calls surged coupled with everything else all of you pointed out in rule 48 and the early adjustments .

SLW has a crazy move one way or another just before or after the markets opens almost everyday. I'm sure some of you are seeing similar things in your favorite miners or stocks that you follow. 

I'm now ready with a slightly outrageous GTC sell order that is probably very fairly valued if only the EE would let real valuation happen. (Yeah right)

Outrageous has been redefined this week in front of my own eye's. Outrageous now seems very realistic and I've changed my outlook and strategy going forward in regards to the new normal of volatility.

Good luck to all. This day is far from over.

¤ · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:05pm

Thanks H

Good jobyes

Richard Booze latcho · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:07pm

Latcho, Great Chart!

Even I can understand it. A perfect illustration, hour and minute gold/silver comparison. I'd like to see that on a daily basis. Where did you get it? 

Maybe the great T Ferguson would provide such a useful tool as a standard fixture on this remarkable website.

Thanks, Latcho.

Nick Elway · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:07pm

Something from Santelli on 30 year bond auction, lmgtfy fnord


@fnord here's a google search


I'm also a Robert Anton Wilson fan. I think he would approve of tfmetalsreport.com

redwood · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:09pm


I have been following SLW now for over 2 years. There has hardly been a day where that dip right after the open hasn't occurred. It's fast and furious, sometimes under 2 minutes, usually the first 2-5 minutes. Those who can lock in at near the botttom can usually earn their keep on a daily basis. That of course only applies when silver is on the rise, otherwise you get your ass wiped.

ned braden Nick Elway · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:10pm

Ditto Robert Anton Wilson

Love the guy....may he RIP.

Anyone with any links to his lectures please share

murphy · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:10pm

Smart Money magazine - NOT

I recently subscribed to the WSJ and because of it I am now receiving a free subscription to this piece of crap. I never opened the first issue but another came today with "How to profit on the next bubble?". Are they ready to pop? So I opened it.

Opening paragraph regarding silver. Analyst says silver was a classic bubble ready to burst prior to May 1. It goes on to demean anyone who is over 25 and lived through the tech and real estate bubble they should have known better. They even have the nerve to say a bubble is when prices are higher than when supply and demand dictate they should be.

Re: gold:

1) meteoric rise based on irrational sentiment

2 )investment professional saying clients calling us asking how to invest in gold - and that's not a good sign

3) best way to deal with inflation is through dividend paying stocks and TIPS

With MSM still printing articles like this the masses have no chance.

redwood · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:11pm


P.S. Also I haven't seen that pattern of trading on the dozen of miners I also follow. Each miner appears to have their own idiosyncratic pattern.

Justin · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:12pm
artaud23 · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:14pm

Hit Squad.

There were only 4 real safe havens available to investors this week. Gold, Swissie, Yen, and US treasuries. They stomped on all of them ex TBills. Gold was given a margin hike forcing people out, Franc and Yen were manipulated by their banks. Convenient considering there was a 30 yr T-Bill auction this week. To Bad for the Fed no one wanted their paper. The mkts are broken, and if you try to hide your $ they will hunt it down. Just like they did to silver in May. 

LaMachinna · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:16pm
Red Pill murphy · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:18pm
Red Pill · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:19pm

anybody who doubts..

that this is still going down should read Reggie's latest on the Euro bank runs


just because they are not talking about it for a little while again doesnt mean it is not still coming.

given Reggie's record on the last collapse, Bear, Lehman, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, you'd be a brave man to doubt that France is blowing up, even if it's not blowing up on CNBC today. 

as Turd says regularly, we are right, we have history on our side, and the critical element, time, is also on our side, and is slowly running out for our opposition. 

hold tight, keep strong, BTFD. 

question Vypuero · Aug 12, 2011 - 12:22pm

Mumbo Jumbo

"Come on, is this astrology or trading here? Moon/Sun stuff is what people believed thousands of years ago before we had what is called science. It is complete nonsense."

Sure, and everyone knows the moon can't control something as big as the ocean tides.

As irrational as the markets are nothing should be "off the table" but be careful what you pick from it to eat. lol

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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