Not Getting Any Easier

Tue, Dec 4, 2012 - 11:25am

I'm running behind schedule this morning and now my printer just ran out of ink. Par for the course and it looks to be another "one of those days".

Sorry for the late start but things have been busy this morning. If you have kids, I'm sure you've noticed that this parenting stuff just never seems to get any easier. Part of me keeps expecting it to but it never does and, frankly, it seems that 7th and 9th grade, especially for girls, is particularly challenging. You try to teach and shape and mold and yet, adolescent girls seem determined to make things as dramatic and challenging for themselves as possible. As a man, this is sure tough to take sometimes. As a man who doesn't like to manage and who tends to see things in black-and-white, this age is enough to drive you crazy.

So, if I seem a bit testy with you, my dear reader, I apologize. I'm doing my level best to "manage" this place and its mission. Yes, it's still fun to trade a little. (I currently have one Feb13 gold call and 3 Mar13 silver calls. I do this for fun and, more importantly, I've found that I need to have some skin in the game in order to stay focused for you.) However, we must, as a group, move away from the apoplectic angst that appears here with every sustained set of downticks. The world is changing. The current, global financial system...the one you've grown up with and lived with your entire passing away and a new system is slowly emerging. To protect your wealth and your purchasing power through these events, I've begged pleaded asked you to purchase as much physical gold and silver as personally prudent.

{So, I just paused and re-read everything I've typed so far. It seems that I have just compared many of the users/members of this site to adolescent girls. This was not my intention but, now that I've done it, I think I'll stick with it. Though it's never a good career move to insult your audience, in this case, a cold slap across the face and some tough love may be cathartic.}

Anyway, back on message...As stated above, my printer ran out of ink this morning so I had to stop at just two charts. That's OK. I don't want to read too much into today's action anyway. First, for perspective, here's a reprint of a chart I posted back on Saturday morning:

As clearly stated on Saturday, the action last week made the gold chart look pretty nasty. Frankly, I was surprised that this ugliness wasn't seized upon by the momo-junkies yesterday. Apparently, they were just waiting for a bounce before they attacked. I posted several charts intraday yesterday that showed a clear capping effort at $1722. From there, the HFTs attacked and down goes gold. At this point, we are once again in the situation where the algos are driving paper price lower but the bullion banks are using the selling to cover paper and bid for physical. This will, eventually, put a floor under this drop. IF gold can reclaim 1705 by the close, chances are high that the rest of the week will be positive. IF NOT, then I would expect a trip down toward 1675 before we see a recovery.

Again, though, unless you are trading paper all by your lonesome (which I've made every effort to dissuade you against), why the angst? Screw 'em! Let The Cartel jam price back and forth. If paper traders are stoo-stoo-stoopid enough to continue being led by the nose to the fleecing shed, then so be it. Your stack and my stack of metal looks exactly the same today as it did yesterday, paper price be damned. One day very soon...VERY SOON...the truth will finally emerge regarding the nefarious manipulation of paper price. WHEN that happens, the fiat-conversion value of your stack will skyrocket and days like today will be a distant, forgotten memory.

And let me just say this: I sense a growing disenchantment that my "historic and explosive" change of fundamentals has not yet occurred. I suppose that I could battle each and every detractor that shows up here but what would be the point? Fighting everyone would only give a sense of desperation and deception. Why would I do that when I am not desperate and I am not deceiving you? I know what I know and I, like everyone else, am simply waiting for all of the shoes to drop. WHEN they drop, the embarrassment and indictment of everyone and everything related to the manipulation will be clear. Everyone from Heads of Global Commodities to politically-appointed bureaucrats will be exposed for the corrupt narcissists that they are. Until then, we wait and stack.

Try to have a good day. Step away from your computer for a while. Maybe go out and perform an act of charity. You'll feel a lot better and you'll help someone else in the process.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


The Watchman
Dec 4, 2012 - 11:36pm
Dec 4, 2012 - 11:59pm

I have a 3 yr old girl and

I have a 3 yr old girl and another one on suppose to arrive sometime in Early May. Never thought I would have 2 girls but have to say its been great with the 1st one even though she has already learned how to boss me around.

Just makes me sick what this country will be like when they are my age or hell by the time they are out of high school or even in K5

Dec 5, 2012 - 12:57am

Good points, SilverLeaf

I wanna add that trading volume tends to dry up toward the end of the month, which makes it easy for EE to move the market toward their desired direction.

victorthecleaner TF
Dec 5, 2012 - 1:02am



you cite GATA: "Austrian central bank refuses to answer gold leasing questions"

That's a plain lie. The ONB has disclosed the information. Here are two google translations of articles in the Austrian newspaper "Die Presse":

According to the official ONB statement, Austria has 45 tonnes (or 16%) out of 280 tonnes on loan, down from about 80% in 2000. This is fully in agreement with the European policy that their major reserve is gold rather than the US dollar which was announced in 1999:


Dec 5, 2012 - 1:11am

American Chartalist's View of the World

Stephanie Kelton tweeted the following youtube video on the difference between the Euro zone and the U.S.:



Dec 5, 2012 - 1:34am

This GSR development does not

This GSR development does not look good. It still abnormal, not enough sensitivity to prices, but its moving up quite decisively, so wrong direction from silver prices view. Also the way it moves, the pattern. Could be flat today best case.

Now, metals are going ALSO WITH USDx, but in wrong direction- USDx down, metals down. That is also not good. Sets up rebound in future, for sure, but not sure its over.

So there are two abnormalities- low effect of price declines on GSR but still GSR movig up and PMs trending with USDx , but down- which makes me think today is not a very safe day yet, nor is tomorrow.

But perhaps its just losses I had yesterday, when I opted out at 32,8. At bottom due to need to protect account.

Also , going into trading has destroyed long term focus I had in analysis. I wonder if the two are compatible at all and will I regain time and interest to focus on long term. I very much hope so.

Dec 5, 2012 - 1:37am

I'll take the other side of Turd's prediction...

...that "we'll end 2012 at the high end of the yearly range". Don't think it's going to happen...Instead, I think they'll try to jam the price down in the next few weeks in an attempt to:

1. Paint as low a yearly performance for gold and silver as they possibly can. As Jim Rogers said earlier this year, gold's gone up every year for the last 10 years and has killed returns on all other asset classes. It would be normal to have a year where it's flat or ends with a loss. The bastard manipulators would love nothing more than to have 2012 returns come in as low as possible to discourage investors as we go into 2013, and to minimize the perception that gold is a *dependable, can't lose investment*.

2. Take advantage of the "fiscal cliff" farce until an agreement is reached at the last minute (as we all know it will). If the compromise results in more monetary debasement (as we all know it will), the manipulators will want gold and silver to react from the low end of the 2012 range, not the high end. To achieve that, they have to jam the price down before the miraculous compromise is reached at the end of December.

3. Force more small investors to pile on with year end tax loss selling. The timing's ripe to try to force another minor waterfall decline, by taking advantage of the 3 week window investors have left for tax loss selling. Create downside volatility, and small investors who want/need to take tax losses will pile on and force prices even lower.

Dec 5, 2012 - 2:55am


Victor! Such generous and well thought out analysis - as ever!

You truly are a crashing bore. If you had actually read lars schalls piece (and by the way he SPEAKS AUSTRIAN as he is an AUSTRIAN - unlike you; and he regularly communicates direct with the ONB!) you would know that the query here is about the seemingly disproportionate returns from leasing versus the numbers leased that you cite in your spectacular google translate links.

Victor, seeing as its your favourite word, I call BS on you too. Judging by the above diatribe presumably everything that GATA says is BS too, or is it just TF? Go on....make my day punk, give me the chance to call you out AGAIN on the details of Silver manipulation specifically, I do so enjoy asking you questions and not getting an answer.

I will happily add that this uncharacteristically frantic intervention on your part suggests you are shitting yourself for some reason, hence the wild haymakers and obsession with farmyard excrement. The silver price must be ready to really move if Big Vic of dubious motive is getting his knickers in a twist.

Victor's B/S meter, witness the permanent squatting position:

Dec 5, 2012 - 3:51am

Short term dollar waterfall

Down to 18.24. Last confirmed gradient approx 1.45%/day.

Dec 5, 2012 - 4:19am

Ellipses completed in both metals, XAG fugly

Started at $1754 on 11/23

Ends at $1692 yesterday

Maximum width $26 dollars out of a total of $62.

Best seen on 1 hour candle chart

(prices quoted as per the upside-down XAU chart, as if USD were money, chortle)

Now this ellipse is complete, it is also possible to see the fat, ungainly, manipulated, misshapen abomination in XAG:

Started at $34.27 on 11/27

Ended at $32.69 yesterday.

Maximum width over $1.40 out of a total of $1.58!

The silver one was difficult to see because it was so fat, its bulge was taller than its head, as futures were yanked around and attempts were made to replace momentum and confidence with confusion and despair. It was a Dozen Donuts ellipse. No matter how messy it looks, there is always an ellipse. All they can do is change its shape and size.

Dec 5, 2012 - 4:38am

Here tis. Purely emotive. Not

Here tis. Purely emotive. Not to order.

Talking Heads "Burning Down the House" ‌‌ - Bohemia Afterdark
Dec 5, 2012 - 4:58am

If you are just a slob just

If you are just a slob just buy. Short term, you will question your parentage and soul. The big boyz don't care but do you ?

Any questions, please email to

The moment you trust the government, sell.

Yes it's a shit song and I can't stand religioous dogma and all the bullshit about who owns heaven or hell or any of that crap but it does mention being a slob and I dunno bout you but being home and a slob sounds pretty good to me. The concept of any god just being a simple idiot appeals to me. Burnin down the house to follow.

Joan Osborne - One of us
Dec 5, 2012 - 5:03am

European Retails Sales

European Retails Sales suck.....printed at -1.2%.

Dollar Index Rallies.....Precious Metals Falls.Simple.

Another lame excuse to tame the rise...duuhh

Bohemian Tabberto
Dec 5, 2012 - 5:04am

RE: Hahahaha..and...haha

Tabbero writes --

"You truly are a crashing bore. If you had actually read lars schalls piece (and by the way he SPEAKS AUSTRIAN as he is an AUSTRIAN - unlike you; and he regularly communicates direct with the ONB!..."

I would love to speak Austrian one day, too... but I am learning! Anyway, when I lived and worked in Austria, I used German, because many Austrians speak German. It's like in Australia. If you don't speak Australian, try English...

Dec 5, 2012 - 5:09am

Puck T. Smith

"Are you hiring?"

Not at the moment Puck, but if you want to PM me what you do and your hourly rate I'll keep you in mind should we need to fill a gap.

Dec 5, 2012 - 5:46am


Gday mate!

Yup you may have a point, of course what I meant was the specific Austro-Bavarian dialect used in Vienna......

Dec 5, 2012 - 6:17am

(No subject)

Burn It Down (Official Video) - Linkin Park
Dec 5, 2012 - 6:53am


Any chance of an image of the ellipses, I'd be interested to see what you're talking about visually

ClinkinKY Bohemian
Dec 5, 2012 - 7:11am



RE: Hahahaha..and...haha

Submitted by Bohemian on December 5, 2012 - 5:04am.
Video unavailable
Big Buffalo
Dec 5, 2012 - 7:26am

News affecting metals today

10:00AM US:Factory Orders Actual: % Forecast: -0.1%Prev: 4.8% 10:00AM US:ISM Non-Mfg Index Actual: Forecast: 53.6Prev: 54.2 10:30AM US:EIA Petroleum Status Report Actual: M barrels Forecast: M barrelsPrev: -0.3M barrels
Dec 5, 2012 - 7:32am

i add

ADP employment at 8:15......................such that it is

Dec 5, 2012 - 7:33am

Interesting, "seen, but not spoken"

Interesting how it is noticed that large orders placed at periods of minimal activity creates downward pressure....

NO Kidding, Really???? LOL


Dec 5, 2012 - 7:35am


Here's what I wrote at the corner. Especially since the Libor scandal I am increasingly convinced the range in which in both metals trade are set the the day before.

"This is just my observation over time. I have not read it any where so keep that in mind, but I have found it very valuable.

Look at the chart metal graphs either on or netadania. The patterns I describe I've seen only on these sites.

Every day from Monday thru Thursday between 1715 and 1800 hours you will often see aberrant metal prices while the market is closed when there is no trading. Friday you see similar distortions during trading between 1600 and 1715 hours. They can be long vertical lines, a series of truncated loops that seem like they have had a ruler drawn under them or just one significant linear mark like last Friday's gold price at close.

Those demarcations will establish either a cap or a floor for either metal the next day during Comex hours ie, 9:30 to 1:30. If its a cap at some point in this period, price will fall below and if a floor it will move up from that target price.

The trick is to know which metal is being manipulated for the trading day and whether it is a cap or floor. Watching the pattern you often get an idea. For example gold on Friday had a floor set at closing at approx. 1747 and so gold remained above that between 9:30 and 1:30pm. Sometimes that demarcation is held in place till 1600 hours as it did today.

I have found this price movement prediction valuable about 60-75% of the time. Sometimes you will even see the price stick to the range beginning London open @ 3:30 am.

I know many have called it a glitch, but the persistent recurrence of this pattern and its prediction value tells another story. Hope that's clear."

Edit: Friday here refers to another time period.

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:15am

Is anyone else....

having trouble accessing Kitco?

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:16am

Explain how we normally get a run up to 8am

almost everyday,, then at 8am a slam?? you notice that? look at right now.. 3500 contract slam in less than 7 minutes

Why the huge volume if not to dampen expectations.. Before comex opens too.. They like to set the tone.. crooks

markets suck on Wednesdays most of the time too.

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:18am

Over 20 Million Houses Sitting Vacant-Fabian Calvo

Real estate expert Fabian Calvo says there’s more to the story about rising prices in the housing market than what’s reported by the mainstream media. Calvo charges, “There’s a tremendous amount of manipulation . . . Yes, prices have gone up 3%. I see it, but it’s because the inventory has been suppressed on purpose by big players . . . not foreclosing on properties.” Calvo should know because he runs a company called It buys and sells $100 million annually in distressed debt and real estate. Calvo says, “Over 20 million houses, on any given night in America, are completely sitting vacant.”

According to Calvo, the economy is being helped by “shadow stimulus.” It’s coming from millions of underwater homeowners who have stopped making mortgage payments. Calvo says, “Money that would have been otherwise allocated towards a housing payment is going into consumer spending.” The Fed is also propping up housing by suppressing interest rates. Calvo says the fragile real estate market would crash if rates rose just a little, and he adds, “That’s why you’re going to see low interest rates . . . through 2015 or until there’s some kind of dollar or bond crisis.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Fabian Calvo.

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:18am


Any hint of "fiscal cliff" deal and metals get hammered. I think its a setup. ALGO's waiting to pounce. Dollar rises. And unnamed sources, stop already. Soooo only us internet folk know the real deal? Sorry, if sounds to good to be true, it probably is. Metals arent going to blow through roof. Will they rise, most likely. KWN folk will come out and blab about all kinds of crazy shit. This stockmarket has remained irrational longer to the upside longer than anyone has expected so whose to say metals dont do the same to the downside. They will rise, but maybe not to the degree people think. Funny how people wait and wait for something to happens and it never does? Our govt leaders suck, thats a given, they can keep this game going a looooong time i think. Maybe THEY can keep price suppression going also. Dont think they arent learning also?

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:18am

Fucked Up ADP

Fucked Up ADP............but but...the comex is about to open.....metals should rally....but but the timing of releasing the data just before the Comex open is impeccable..just as the Metals rev up to rally...bam hammer & tongs at the metals...

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:21am

Its now 7:20am Chi-Town time

Must be time to dump gold and silver. Lol!!

Dec 5, 2012 - 8:25am

There you have it

There you have it.....just as i predicted.....metals barely moved on this Shitty Data....stifled before they could Yell In Joy.....FUBM


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)