Churning

276
Mon, Nov 26, 2012 - 11:08am

After the fireworks and short squeeze of Friday, the churning trade of today shouldn't surprise anyone. It's a safe bet to expect more of the same tomorrow, too. Maybe even the rest of this week. We'll see. The start of December, however, should certainly bring more excitement.

Until then, we wait. Yes, it was fun to see the pop back on Friday. I was able to use the rally to finally lighten some of my December option positions and I will use any pullback this week to roll into March silver. But, as the opening paragraph states, I'm not expecting much of a sustainable move, one way or the other, this week. The Dec12 gold options and the Dec12 silver options all expire at the Comex close tomorrow. Until then, expect the HFTs and The Cartels to jam price back and forth in an attempt to shear as much fleece from the sheep as possible. Then, on Friday, we have First Notice Day for both contracts. (Remember that FND is the "put up or shut up" day for futures contract holders. By the close Friday, you either have to sell your Dec contract or express your intent to take delivery by placing 100% margin into your account.) Always fearing a delivery crisis, The Gold and Silver Cartels will likely instigate some price weakness in order to discourage anyone considering delivery from actually doing it. Think The Godfather and the horse head in the bed.

Video unavailable

So we're left with a rangebound trade for now. Gold rallied Friday right up to the final resistance line of $1755. We identified that area a few weeks ago as the final stopping point before the next test of the Cartel Maginot Line at $1800. We may not close through $1755 until next week. We may close through there tomorrow. Heck, I don't know. What I do know is this: Gold WILL close through there soon and then it will make another move toward $1800. In December, $1800 will fail and, in early 2013, the stage will be set for a move back to the old alltime highs. There you can expect serious Cartel resistance as their only hope will be to attempt to paint a double top.

Silver is will likely be contained below $35 this week with the option expiration and FND. Next week should be a different story, however, and it will also trade higher in December. I expect the cap/ceiling of $35.50-36.00 to fail this time and The Forces of Darkness will be forced to fall back to the $37-38 area. Sometime in December, they'll fail to hold that area, too, and we'll begin our ascent toward $44.

Dr. Dave Janda kindly invited me onto his radio program yesterday. It was an honor to speak with him and we covered many of the topics near and dear to the hearts of Turdville. Below is a link to the audio. If you don't have time for the entire thing, you should at least be sure to FF to the 16:00 minute mark where Dave plays some audio from Thunderlips that was recorded over two years ago. You'd swear it was recorded last week, instead. What a massive con and charade the CFTC is promulgating. Yuck.

https://www.davejanda.com/operation_freedom/

https://www.davejanda.com/audio/TurdFerguson112512.mp3

And, finally, today is Cyber Monday!! Please don't forget to visit the TurdMart for all of your holiday shopping needs. Who on your list wouldn't love a TFMR t-shirt?? Seriously...a true gift of distinction! All genuine and authentic Turd merchandise can be found by clicking here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/store. Please remember that the site benefits if you are directed to Amazon, too. Any purchase you make at Amazon after arriving there via links from TFMR generates a small commission for little ole Turd.

So, anyway, that's all for today. Go and be happy. Be confident, too. December is going to be a very exciting month and 2013 will truly be historic. Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  276 Comments

ag1969
Nov 27, 2012 - 9:45am

re: maybe just a buzzby

Silver & The Fab Four

Stewart Thomson
email: stewart[at]gracelandupdates[dot]com

  1. The move from $29 to $35 was a phenomenal gain of about 20%. If silver were to gain 20% again, while technically overbought, it could rise to $41 very quickly.
  2. It’s important to understand the difference between a drawdown and the destruction of wealth. Silver is overbought on the daily chart, and that means it could decline, rather than “overflow the river banks” and surging higher.
  3. So, the question you need to ask yourself is whether you really need to avoid every decline that occurs in the silver market. I would suggest that all silver investors should work at building the intestinal fortitude required, to endure a $5 decline comfortably.
  4. Even a $10 decline should cause the investor to experience nothing more than mild discomfort, because these types of sell-offs do no damage to the silver asset itself.

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_112712.html

I know, I have been told before that I am not supposed to go to 321 anymore. Please forgive me.

Just A Regular Guy
Nov 27, 2012 - 9:47am

Michael Pento best interview EVER!

Michael Pento looses it! It's hilarious I listened to it a few times because he snaps so hard! Sadly he's right tho....

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/11/24_Mic...

silver66
Nov 27, 2012 - 9:47am

views contrary to status quo will not be tolerated

Looks like Grantham's last observations are not being well received by the establishment, no critical thinking allowed :-(

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters12/48-critique4.php

I have found Jeremy Granthams views to be very good and his insights excellent

https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2...

Silver66

Harald
Nov 27, 2012 - 9:58am

Goldman Sachs guy first, Canadian, eh.

This is reassuring. Everything is proceeding according to plan.

Carney, who played ice hockey as a student and has run marathons, is one of several Goldman Sachs alumni to shape international economic policy. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley and current Bank of England policy maker Ben Broadbent were there, too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-27/carney-at-boe-reveals-canadian...

¤
Nov 27, 2012 - 9:59am

"...a half-life of 4-6 weeks..."

The Fairy Tale

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2012 - 09:37

No funds are going to be distributed now. Perhaps some of you missed this but this is exactly what Ms. Lagarde stated. Before any distribution the Eurozone has to “fulfill its commitments” and the Private Sector bond buyback plan must be completed. Consider this; Europe is putting up all of the money currently and the IMF has declined to participate. Oh yes, it is couched in political mishmash and tucked neatly under the rug but there it is; no money from the IMF for now.

https://www.zerohedge.com/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I made that comment last night after 'the deal". It appears to be closer to 12-24 hours.

I'm almost expecting the tidy and ugly package they tried to wrap up last night to explode into EUgliness soon at this point. The USD seems to reflect that.


Nov 27, 2012 - 10:00am

Correlation not causality always likely

Just because powerful people take advantage of someting does not mean they caused it.

ag1969
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:00am

Harald

I just love how they conveniently leave out that he worships the big owl in the grove. But, he has played hockey and run marathons!

boatman
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:02am

my paid service guy

says currently 50/50 general market corrects in next weeks before moving towards alltime high next year..............before slide n then secular bear capitulation in coming few years.

says silver is only thing he is buying now, with gold to come soon.

Cononish1314
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:03am

Carn Age

It seems that Chancellor George Osborne was impressed with Carney because Canadian banks didn't seem to get into quite as much trouble in 2008. But didn't they, like the Swedes, have their crisis that little bit earlier? So isn't he getting the credit for someone else's spadework?

ag1969
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:07am

XTY

You are probably right, as usual, but I still think GL needs to fire up the ring and lantern! I now have to drive 4 hours to a wake and funeral, so I will shut up now with my off topic comments. Have a great day everyone! This is getting pretty exciting after months of boredom.

Bollocks
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:07am

Oh for God's sake....

No, not an actual Ton.

Not 1000kg.

Silly people.

I bought 100 maples*

Therefore the prices will plummet.

(*that's real proper silver, not that paper shit).

Patrancus
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:08am

Force Majeure

Makes sense to me, its the obvious move to cover your tracks. Weather manipulations to accentuate your plans executing the prime directive. Wealthy folks don't go to jail much anymore, JAIL FREE cards in the purse keep you fat and happy in larceny, though their ought to be a way to get into into those fat wallets of mega rich liberal sociopaths who are always putting out their digits pointing at the rich conservative on the other side of the isle. Dirty little secret is their are way more mega rich liberals touting their politics than conservatives. Those who stand on their soap box and and point their dirty little digits at that other rich guys. I'm sick of this bs, leave me the f alone.

Tabberto
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:10am
TomMack sengfarmer
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:12am

sengfarmer thanks

yes that is the exact chart thanks again

ballyale
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:20am

Rob Kirby: Gld ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars

By Rob Kirby:

“Gold Finger – A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist”

I’ve already reported on irregular physical gold settlements which occurred in London, England back in the first week of October, 2009. Specifically, these settlements involved the intermediation of at least one Central Bank [The Bank of England] to resolve allocated settlements on behalf of J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank – who DID NOT have the gold bullion that they had sold short and were contracted to deliver. At the same time I reported on two other unusual occurrences:

1] - irregularities in the publication of the gold ETF – GLD’s bar list from Sept. 25 – Oct.14 where the length of the bar list went from 1,381 pages to under 200 pages and then back up to 800 or so pages.

2] - reports of 400 oz. “good delivery” bricks of gold found gutted and filled with tungsten within the confines of LBMA approved vaults in Hong Kong.

Why Tungsten?

If anyone were contemplating creating “fake” gold bars, tungsten [at roughly $10 per pound] would be the metal of choice since it has the exact same density as gold making a fake bar salted with tungsten indistinguishable from a solid gold bar by simply weighing it.

Unfortunately, there are now more sordid details to report.

When the news of tungsten “salted” gold bars in Hong Kong first surfaced, many people

who I am acquainted with automatically assumed that these bars were manufactured in

China – because China is generally viewed as “the knock-off capital of the world”.

Here’s what I now understand really happened:

The amount of “salted tungsten” gold bars in question was allegedly between 5,600 and 5,700 – 400 oz – good delivery bars [roughly 60 metric tonnes].

This was apparently all highly orchestrated by an extremely well financed criminal operation.

Within mere hours of this scam being identified – Chinese officials had many of the perpetrators in custody.

And here’s what the Chinese allegedly uncovered:

Roughly 15 years ago – during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] – between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day. I know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs with dates and exact weights of “tungsten” bars shipped to Ft. Knox.

The balance of this 1.3 million – 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market.

Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”.

Makes one wonder if the Indians were smart enough to assay their 200 tonne haul from the IMF?

A Slow Motion Train Wreck, Years in the Making

An obscure news item originally published in the N.Y. Post [written by Jennifer Anderson] in late Jan. 04 has always ‘stuck in my craw’:

DA investigating NYMEX executive – Manhattan, New York, district attorney’s office, Stuart Smith – Melting Pot – Brief Article – Feb. 2, 2004

A top executive at the New York Mercantile Exchange is being investigated by the Manhattan district attorney. Sources close to the exchange said that Stuart Smith, senior vice president of operations at the exchange, was served with a search warrant by the district attorney’s office last week. Details of the investigation have not been disclosed, but a NYMEX spokeswoman said it was unrelated to any of the exchange’s markets. She declined to comment further other than to say that charges had not been brought. A spokeswoman for the Manhattan district attorney’s office also declined comment.

The offices of the Senior Vice President of Operations – NYMEX – is exactly where you would go to find the records [serial number and smelter of origin] for EVERY GOLD BAR ever PHYSICALLY settled on the exchange. They are required to keep these records. These precise records would show the lineage of all the physical gold settled on the exchange and hence “prove” that the amount of gold in question could not have possibly come from the U.S. mining operations – because the amounts in question coming from U.S. smelters would undoubtedly be vastly bigger than domestic mine production.

We never have found out what happened to poor ole Stuart Smith – after his offices were “raided” – he took administrative leave from the NYMEX and he has never been heard from since. Amazingly [or perhaps not], there never was any follow up on in the media on the original story as well as ZERO developments ever stemming from D.A. Morgenthau’s office who executed the search warrant.

Are we to believe that NYMEX offices were raided, the Sr. V.P. of operations then takes leave – all for nothing?

These revelations should provide a “new filter” through which Rothschild exiting the gold market back in 2004 begins to make a little more sense:

“LONDON, April 14, 2004 (Reuters) – NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd., the London-based unit of investment bank Rothschild [ROT.UL], will withdraw from trading commodities, including gold, in London as it reviews its operations, it said on Wednesday.”

Interestingly, GATA’s Bill Murphy speculated about this back in 2004;

“Why is Rothschild leaving the gold business at this time my colleagues and I conjectured today? Just a guess on my part, but suspect:”

*SOMETHING IS AMISS. THEY KNOW A BIG GOLD SCANDAL IS COMING AND THEY WANT NO PART OF IT. …”

“ROTHSCHILD WANTS OUT BEFORE THE PROVERBIAL “S” HITS THE FAN.” BILL MURPHY, LEMETROPOLE, 4-18-2004

Coincidentally [or perhaps, not?], GLD Began Trading 11/12/2004

In light of what has occurred – regarding the Gold ETF, GLD – after reviewing their prospectus yet again, it becomes pretty clear that GLD was established to purposefully deflect investment dollars away from legitimate gold pursuits and to create a stealth, cesspool / catch-all, slush-fund and a likely destination for many of these “salted tungsten bars” where they would never see the light of day – hidden behind the following legalese “shield” from the law:

Excerpt from the GLD prospectus on page 11:

https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/SPDRGoldTrustProspectus.pdf

Gold bars allocated to the Trust in connection with the creation of a Basket may not meet the London Good Delivery Standards and, if a Basket is issued against such gold, the Trust may suffer a loss. Neither the Trustee nor the Custodian independently confirms the fineness of the gold bars allocated to the Trust in connection with the creation of a Basket. The gold bars allocated to the Trust by the Custodian may be different from the reported fineness or weight required by the LBMA’s standards for gold bars delivered in settlement of a gold trade, or the London Good Delivery Standards, the standards required by the Trust. If the Trustee nevertheless issues a Basket against such gold, and if the Custodian fails to satisfy its obligation to credit the Trust the amount of any deficiency, the Trust may suffer a loss.

The Fed Has Already Been Caught Lying

Liberty Coin’s Patrick Heller recently wrote,

Earlier this year, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), filed a second Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Federal Reserve System for documents from 1990 to date having to do with gold swaps, gold swapped, or proposed gold swaps.

On Aug. 5, The Federal Reserve responded to this FOIA request by adding two more documents to those disclosed to GATA in April 2008 from the earlier FOIA request. These documents totaled 173 pages, many parts of which were redacted (covered up to omit sections of text). The Fed’s response also noted that there were 137 pages of documents not disclosed that were alleged to be exempt from disclosure.

GATA appealed this determination on Aug. 20. The appeal asked for more information to substantiate the legitimacy of the claimed exemptions from disclosure and an explanation on why some documents, such as one posted on the Federal Reserve Web site that discusses gold swaps, were not included in the Aug. 5 document release.

In a Sept. 17, 2009, letter on Federal Reserve System letterhead, Federal Reserve governor Kevin M. Warsh completely denied GATA’s appeal. The entire text of this letter can be examined at https://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17-2009.pdf.

The first paragraph on the third page is the most revealing. Warsh wrote, “In connection with your appeal, I have confirmed that the information withheld under exemption 4 consists of confidential commercial or financial information relating to the operations of the Federal Reserve Banks that was obtained within the meaning of exemption 4. This includes information relating to swap arrangements with foreign banks on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and is not the type of information that is customarily disclosed to the public. This information was properly withheld from you.”

This paragraph will likely be one of the most important news stories of the year.

Though not stated in plain English, this paragraph is an admission that the Fed has in the past and may now be engaged in trading gold swaps. Warsh’s letter contradicts previous Fed statements to GATA denying that it ever engaged in gold swaps during the time period between Jan. 1, 1990 and the present.

[Perhaps most importantly], this was GATA’s second FOIA request to the Federal Reserve on the issue of gold swaps. The 173 pages of documents received for the 2009 FOIA request all pre-dated the 2007 FOIA request, which means they should have been released in the response to the earlier FOIA request. This establishes a likelihood that the Federal Reserve has failed to adequately search or disclose relevant documents. Further, the Fed response admitted that it had copies of relevant records that originally appeared on the Treasury Department Web site, but failed to include them in its response.

Now that Federal Reserve governor Warsh has admitted that the Fed has lied in the past about the Fed’s involvement with gold. It should now be very clear to everyone why the Fed is lying and the true nature of what they are hiding / withholding.

On Doing God’s Work

An important footnote to consider is the inter-twined-ness of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury [can anyone really tell them apart?] as well as this duopoly’s two principal agents – J.P. Morgan-Chase and Goldman Sachs. When one truly grasps the nature of these highly conflicted relationships it gives a fuller meaning to words recently uttered by Goldman head, Lloyd Blankfein, who claimed,

“I’m doing god’s work”

Does this really mean that Mr. Blankfein believes that the Federal Reserve is god? You can judge for yourself. While the Fed prints money like no one else could – except god almighty himself [or Gideon Gono, perhaps?] – I really doubt that was the intent back in 1864, when the U.S. adopted “In God We Trust” as their official motto.

And that’s my two cents worth for today.

Got [real] physical gold yet?

tmosley
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:22am

Please, please, PLEASE stop

Please, please, PLEASE stop thinking that the government is a GOD.

Grublux
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:24am

the smash

is beginning

SIlverbee
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:24am

another buzzby

Looks like they are aiming to close below $34 or designing a new rollercoaster

Horst
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:25am

Commercial net shorts up,

Commercial net shorts up, open interest up.. just sold some more of my longs. Right now I'm only 1/3 in, so it's okay if they smash it in the near future and I can buy again.

If it goes the opposite way despite all data (as bull markets do), the rule "never short a bull market" applies, as I'm still long and would still make a profit off it... I'm just not as long as I would be with commercial net shorts at 10000 contracts like a few months ago, as opposed to 55000 - 60000 right now.

tyberious
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:28am

Turk – The LBMA Is Moving To

Turk – The LBMA Is Moving To Cover Up Silver Manipulation

kingworldnews.com / November 27, 2012

Today James Turk spoke with King World News about steps which are being taken by the LBMA and Western central planners to cover up the corruption and manipulation in the gold and silver markets. This is the first in a series of interviews with James Turk that will be released today which reveals what is going on behind the scenes of the increasingly desperate Western central bank gold and silver price suppression scheme.

Here is what Turk had to say about what is now taking place: “They (the LBMA) are making it more and more opaque. Less and less information is being made available. Specifically, what’s happened here is that the LBMA had been reporting the silver lending rate and comparing it to the LIBOR rate.”

James Turk continues:

“For the past couple of years I have contended that this was a fictitious rate because, in reality, I believe silver is in backwardation. In other words, the future months are below the spot months, and so you should have a negative silver forward rate. But it’s not reported that way on the LBMA site.

They (the LBMA) consistently show a positive silver forward rate. Now, what the LBMA said is they are no longer going to report silver interest rates and silver forward rates…..

READ MORE

achmachat
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:30am

Bollocks

i followed your lead and ordered 60 Armenian Arks (the German mint that produces them has a sweet deal on them to get rid of their 2012 inventory). I guess our combined purchases just made spot go down a little? ;-)

fertzeltwist
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:32am

16,456 reads

Impressive for a single day in turdville- things are heating up!

fertzeltwist
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:34am
Bollocks
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:44am

@achmachat

My prediction is that it'll be somewhere between 15 and 18 by the end of the day.

But it may go to as low as 9, just to really rub it in, eh?

¤
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:47am

Fed's Fisher dubious about easing policy

Nov. 27, 2012, 10:42 a.m. EST

Fed's Fisher dubious about easing policy

By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve should end its aggressive easing campaign, said Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, on Tuesday. In remarks to reporters after a speech in Berlin, Fisher said the Fed's Operation Twist program should be allowed to expire on schedule next month. Under Twist, the Fed sells short-term securities and uses the proceeds to buy longer-term securities. "I question its efficacy," Fisher said, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Fed will meet on Dec. 11 and 12 and is generally expected by analysts to replace Twist with outright Treasury purchases. Fisher also said the Fed should also end its $40 billion per-month purchases of mortgage-backed securities, known as quantitative easing, or QE3. "My personal view is we don't need to do more," he said. The Fed's QE3 plan is open-ended with the central bankers saying it will continue the purchases until there is substantial improvement in the labor market. The central bank should consider setting limits to the size of its balance sheet, currently at $2.873 trillion, he said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-fisher-dubious-about-easing-polic...
Harald
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:57am

Ballyale

That's why the Chinese are melting and recasting the gold that's being shipped into China. Since they're so corrupt themselves, they have no problem assuming corruption in everyone else.

small_potatoes
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:57am

Operation MONKEYHAMMER seems to be in full

operation this morning, but Operation MONKEYBREAKER seems to be holding the line so far.

zpring
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:58am
Patrancus
Nov 27, 2012 - 10:58am

Sensing a new thread

Maybe take a break in the sea of Cortez before you go out of your freaking mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=EBYPlcSD490


Nov 27, 2012 - 11:03am

Nice call.

Nice call.

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