Silver to $44

460
129
Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-update-us-dollar-sacrificed.html

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF

11:50 EDT UPDATE:

The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF

1:05 EDT UPDATE:

30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  460 Comments

Frontal Labottleme
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:49pm

The red stuff

Funny - I sort everything by mkt value so all zero's are at the top - easier to block out that way, but anyways I just took a peek for shits 'n giggles and look what I found:

HL Sep 17 2011 15.0 Call

Hah! Who knew. The ask is 0.01. Lol - I'd forgotten all about those. Now wouldn't it be nice if they catch a bid at some point? That would be a very good sign indeed, and if they end up in the money it will be time go farm shopping again :)

Shill
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:50pm

BINGO

BINGO ginger, we are heading into METAL MANIA FALL Autumn is our time. What were seeing now is a major fear trade in PM's. Our gracious host TURD has noted this.

Speaking of which time to feed the TURD!

Cheers

Bay of Pigs
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:51pm

Jim Willie

The Golden Jackass is always a good read.

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1313006400.php

BagOfGold ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:52pm

ewc58...

No worries!...No gold will fall out of my bag!...I'm on my way to the dentist now!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Over55
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:53pm

Just hold gold and silver,

Just hold gold and silver, pretty simple

Violent Rhetoric
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:53pm

They can't even mount a

They can't even mount a decent raid in Gold.

Tesla
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:55pm

Gold OI ...total is DOWN 6,628 contracts (basis yesterday)

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/10/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1744.0

1795.6

1741.3

-

+41.3

1781.3

745

2,798

SEP 11

1742.6

1797.5

1739.3

-

+41.4

1781.6

2,304

3,378

OCT 11

1744.5

1799.1

1739.2

1780.5

+41.3

1782.7

13,557

27,434

DEC 11

1747.4

1801.0

1740.2

1788.3

+41.3

1784.3

243,555

361,579

FEB 12

1751.5

1801.6

1751.2

-

+41.3

1786.4

4,675

21,680

APR 12

1765.6

1803.4

1762.0

-

+41.3

1788.3

111

6,871

JUN 12

1764.2

1805.2

1761.8

-

+41.2

1790.0

124

15,393

AUG 12

1769.0

1800.9

1769.0

-

+41.0

1791.7

221

5,897

OCT 12

1807.6

1807.6

1802.8

-

+40.8

1793.5

28

4,171

DEC 12

1757.0

1811.0

1757.0

-

+40.5

1795.5

497

12,244

FEB 13

-

1785.0B

-

-

+39.8

1797.3

10

1,586

APR 13

1787.0

1787.0

1787.0

-

+39.1

1799.3

2

336

JUN 13

-

-

-

-

+38.3

1801.7

132

11,596

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+36.2

1811.2

296

12,686

JUN 14

-

-

-

-

+33.1

1823.3

225

3,610

DEC 14

1828.0

1828.0

1828.0

-

+29.9

1838.9

324

9,842

JUN 15

-

-

-

-

+26.8

1859.0

24

4,734

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+23.7

1881.9

80

3,333

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+20.1

1907.9

-

6

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+16.4

1936.9

35

1,019

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+13.4

1971.2

-

30

Total

266,945

510,223

Last Updated 08/10/2011 01:32 PM

ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:57pm

Important read when the market actions allows!

Ya simply gotta know GATA. Pretty much whatever you're now thinking, they've thought it. About 10 years ago.

I'll post some Bill Murphy stuff later along with the link to his 2 week free trial. Friends,just about everyone all the folks here respects in terms of PM just returned from spending their precious time, paying their respects, and showing appreciation at GATA's Gold Rush 2011. Sinclair. Turk. Embry. You name it, they were there because they know what GATA has done. And they can sense the moment. I humbly ask you to consider getting GATA'd ASAP. Fall in behind the Joint Chiefs of Gold and Silver. Very much appropriate to have the fine residents of Turd Town swell the ranks, don't you think? It's another way we can Fight the Power, or Stick it to the Man (in case Jack Black is reading this).

CP is so smart. Notice how he uses the work of Loathsome Larry Summers to hang that stinking traitor with his own rope. I'm telling you, the GATA Posse are smart dudes to throw in with...

Chris Powell: Who will put the gold questions to central banks?

Remarks by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
GATA Gold Rush 2011
Savoy Hotel, London
Friday, August 5, 2011

Those of you who have been following GATA for a long time are owed a bit of an apology from me today. For I will say some things you have heard before, as they may be new to others here, as I'm reminded of the advice given to me some years ago by a friend who was twice elected to Connecticut's state legislature, three times to the U.S. House of Representatives, and three times as governor of Connecticut. He told me that repetition is crucial in politics, and that, tedious as it may seem, just when you think you're going to have to kill yourself if you say something over again, that's when people are just starting to listen.

Of course that was before he disgraced the state, was caught taking gifts from government contractors, resigned under threat of impeachment, pleaded guilty to a federal corruption charge, and was sent to prison for a year. But I guess he didn't get everything wrong.

GATA is still about what it was about when it was founded in January 1999 -- exposing and opposing the rigging of the gold market and related markets.

Why is the gold market rigged?

It's rigged because, despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's insistence the other day that gold is not money, just "tradition," gold is indeed a currency that competes brutally with government-issued currencies and helps determine not only the value of those currencies but also the level of interest rates and the value of government bonds. This was all documented in an academic study published in June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy written by Harvard economics professor Lawrence Summers and University of Michigan economics professor Robert Barsky. This Summers-Barsky study was unearthed and interpreted by another speaker at this conference, gold price suppression litigator Reg Howe. The study implied that if governments could get control of the gold price, they could also get control of interest rates....

https://www.gata.org/node/10229

Tesla
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:57pm

Silver OI... Total is UP 1,570 contracts (basis yesterday)

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/10/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

38.300

39.190

38.095

-

+1.448

39.325

10

23

SEP 11

37.780

39.370

37.615

-

+1.444

39.327

52,156

47,502

OCT 11

38.720

39.085

38.080

-

+1.444

39.344

29

28

DEC 11

37.810

39.355

37.700

-

+1.444

39.362

11,089

37,641

JAN 12

38.455

39.125

38.455

-

+1.444

39.368

4

144

MAR 12

37.820

39.370

37.820

-

+1.440

39.374

466

6,241

MAY 12

-

-

-

-

+1.432

39.357

59

2,173

JLY 12

38.235

38.235

38.235

-

+1.424

39.340

67

1,926

SEP 12

38.225

38.895

38.225

-

+1.416

39.305

34

307

DEC 12

38.140

38.940

38.060

-

+1.406

39.237

358

8,300

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+1.405

39.210

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+1.404

39.148

5

435

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.404

39.102

-

35

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.384

39.028

5

2,210

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+1.361

38.908

27

6,873

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+1.324

38.680

-

232

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+1.307

38.563

5

1,186

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+1.254

38.330

10

166

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+1.234

38.188

14

478

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

+1.214

38.068

5

38

Total

64,343

115,939

Last Updated 08/10/2011 01:32 PM

ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 2:59pm

DPH!

Oh yeah, most fun with clothes on for longer then I care to admit. Thanks for checking in Bro.

Risk On. Rock On.

gdogus
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:00pm

happy fun ball

After reading the last update, what popped into my head was, "Do not taunt Happy Fun Ball."

SilverWealth
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:03pm

Granny and John Holmes

As if just last week wasn't bad enough now that Holmes boy, the Johnny Wad, is chasing Granny all over the store. All the GDX and GDXJ she bought on weakness is what the Johnny Wad wants to steal from her at a premium.

We have taken out last weeks highs in GDX on a definite boner bounce that is bullish. Question is does Granny 'give it up' now and just maybe peel her blouse off to excite him and get him more and more crazy. Those kinds of boys are always so much trouble...

As we speak, Granny has sold off some of each remembering how quickly this sector collapsed last week.

Shill
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:03pm
Frontal Labottleme
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:04pm

Colorbifurbication rocks

Good point dorothy (ginger). The general markets are red and the miners are green. I'd hate jinx anything but I got a feeling we ain't in Kansas anymore!

SilverWealth
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:06pm

TEsla

thanks for the Tzar Bomba photo.

Can you interpret the gold and silver oi tables for me. Is the OI Yiddish for pain in the ass?

Seriously what does it mean?

thanks, SW

¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:09pm

France is next/Kiss of Death...

...just happened when the credit ratings agencies had to come out to squash speculation that France is about to get downgraded. Stay tuned right after or during Italy's insolvency.

I didn't realize that France was that heavily indebted. I just heard on TV that they carry the 4th largest amount of debt on the planet.....(uh oh)

Shill
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:12pm
Violent Rhetoric
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:15pm

Everybody wants some

In honor of the action today in Gold...

Everybody wants some.... I want some too!

Van Halen - Everybody Wants Some!! - Rosemont, IL - 10.16.07
RuNuts
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:16pm

Hong Kong Exchanges Website May Have Been Target of Hackers

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the world’s biggest bourse operator by market value, said it suspended trading for companies including HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) after its website was hacked.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/hong-kong-exchange-halts-some-...

Mikey
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:18pm

Tom & Treefrog, I'm in

Tom & Treefrog,

I'm in Keystone enjoying 3 baggers on AUY and SLW! Got a bunch of seeds starting for fall planting. Tom L., might want to swing by soon and discus chickens if you don't mind. I need to get some. Treefrog, do a fair amount of hunting and then beer guzzling in Madison and Jasper.

Mikey

Slick
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:21pm

New Willie Article

Haven't read it yet but I'm sure its good:

Inflation & Deflation in a Storm


https://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1313006400.php

Boomerang Johnson
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:22pm

Gold shorts wiped out...

Wow, this one leaves me speechless....

London Trader - Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Lost Everything!

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/10_L...

Bay of Pigs
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:22pm

@ewc58

I had the pleasure of being there in Vancouver, BC when GATA was formed in 1999. I was able to talk to and get to know both Chris and Bill over the years at the Cambridge House Conferences. They are great people. The PM community owes them a great deal for all of their hard work and determination.

I always knew they were telling the truth on all of the suppression/manipulation issues. They have been completely vindicated in my estimation. Funny that Mish still refers to them as "conspiracy" types if you can believe it. I lost a lot of respect for Mish over that and his especially his dimwitted views on silver.

Tom L Mikey
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:25pm

@Mikey: Chickens

My wife has a heritage line breeding program going on Delawares. Good dual-purpose meat and egg birds that handle the Florida heat well. We're currently out of laying hens, but will have some in the next 6 weeks or so.

BTW, for those interested in chickens, become members at backyardchickens.com. It is THE reference place for chickens on the web. Period. Many of the best breeders in the country are there.

If you're interested send e-mail to lidacamille[at]yahoo[dot]com.

BTW, y'all I'm TFL1728 on twitter. Pop on over if you tweet and do the follow thang.

Ta,

ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:27pm

So true DPH

I've been waiting for this one: France's banks are not only as insolvent as any one else's, they are filled to the brim with some of the haughtiest, most despicable financial criminals in the world.

You may know that one of the only reasons they've been able to skate while others have melted in the heat of scrutiny is the outrageous amounts of funny money they received via TARP and the other giveaways to global bank scum. That and the fact that while nominally French, they're 2 time sell outs: to The City of London, as well as to Germany, who owns them like a little french poodle. Got a cute sparkly collar on it, attached to a very short leash.

The German's have a wonderful word: schadenfreude. I do believe that's what I'm staring to feel about those effete French snob banksters. And I think the good Lord is going to give me a pass. 'Cause He knows 'em too.

schadenfreude [shahd-n-froi-duh] Origin

scha·den·freu·de

 [shahd-n-froi-duh] noun satisfaction or pleasure felt at someone else's misfortune. Origin:
1890–95; < German, equivalent to Schaden harm + Freude joy
Tesla
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:28pm

@Silver Wealth (RE OI #s)

I'm hardly qualified to interpret in any depth... But OI in AG hopefully bottomed yesterday - a low comparative total is bullish in this case. Mondays low of 114k contracts is a very solid base of strong handed longs (not likely going any further down from these longs selling in a panic, margin hike, EE long stop busting raid etc. ...barring some freak exogenous event at least)

Trying to figure out longs vs shorts??

Yesterdays price action in AU indicated a sell off at the end of the CRIMEX day... hence the loss of 6k plus contracts... I suspect today that number is back up 6k AND THEN SOME ...but we don't get to see todays total numbers until tomorrow.

I hope someone else smarter than I can add some clarity to my AMATEURS understanding of the CRIMEX numbers...??

ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:30pm

Bay of Pigs = Very Smart

Mish = Dumbass

Sorry Mish, but there it is. Give it up already will ya brah?

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:32pm

EWC: Mish

Is absolutely a dumbass. One cannot be both an Austrian and a Prechterite at the same time. But he manages to do so and get people to read his blog and pay him money to do so!

It's offensive to an old-time blogger like myself, honestly.

Ta,

silver foil hat California Lawyer
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:41pm

@ CA. Lawyer + dph

I thought that was really out there... even for a silver foil hat conspiracist.

That is, until I thought he did it before. With GM.

Mikey Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 3:46pm

Tom L, Since we're pretty

Tom L,

Since we're pretty close to each I wanted just pick your brain a bit. I'm trading for my supper as well so have lots of time 'cept for days like today.

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