Back To Business

149
Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4287/terrific-new-stuff-sprott

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  149 Comments

opticsguy
Oct 31, 2012 - 10:58am

at will

A local semiconductor company laid off about 200 people back in 2009. Of those 200 people, 197 of them were white males between 50 and 60 years old (most over 55 were given a chance to take a retirement package first). Those laid off got a pretty decent severage package, on condition that they never disparage their former employer. A couple did talk to lawyers about suing, and were told they had a pretty good age/sex-discrimination case, but they needed more than a few people to rat on the company.

Said company prides itself on its "diverse" work force.

Bohemian California Lawyer
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:03am

@California Lawyer

"If you have more questions, let me know."

I have one. :-)

You wrote --

"The employer claimed that my client scanned three cases of doctor pepper instead of two cases of doctor pepper and one case of coke. Each case was priced the same, so no loss occurred to the store. Yet, the employer determined that adequate grounds existed to terminate my client."

Is the scanner linked to the employer central inventory database? Many are, so -- if yes, you might have a real problem to defend your client. That's their reason for termination, right? Not her age, sex, medication, or anything else.

HeNateMe
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:08am

@50Jim

Either stop watching the one minute silver candlesticks or buck up. Scenarios, in reality, don't always work out on your timeline. Remain faithful in the fundamentals. Look around you and see governments/central banks easing (most recently the Bank of Japan).

Or sell and run.

HeNateMe

Bohemian
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:18am

Bohemian

I have vastly simplified the basic facts to make a point. The scanner was part of a theft deterrent system, it was not part of inventory control. There is a lot more to the story, but the simple fact is that the employer fired a 61 year old disabled woman because she needed more frequent restroom breaks than the one per three hours the employer was giving her. They needed an excuse to fire her, and the created one. I will post the gory details when all is said and done in about a year.

rl999
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:19am

silver move

actually, now would be a good time to look at the one minute candle sticks..

from 32.17-32.37, gap up

dgstage
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:21am

Spike

What stimulated that nice spike in AU & AG

¤
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:25am

Jobs data released?

Did someone just let the goose out of the bag?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oct. 31, 2012, 11:17 a.m. EDT

Jobs data to come out Friday as scheduled

By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Labor Department said it will release the jobs report as scheduled on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The agency had previously said it was intending to do so after a federal government shutdown for two days in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.

A Grim Preview Of This Friday's Jobs Number

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2012 - 10:52

Following this morning's dismal employment sub-index from Chicago Fed PMI and the recent Philly Fed employment sub-index, the 'data' suggests that this week's (now confirmed by the BLS that NFP will be released on Friday as scheduled) payroll data could be the first negative print since September 2010. Of course, we are sure that pre-emptive Sandy 'action' and seasonal adjustments will explain away any miss from the current +125k estimate. Is this why the market is not levitating on moar broken windows?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/grim-preview-fridays-jobs-number

dumpster
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:25am

Brain farts

no wonder the gold and silver market is so schizophrenic reading the post from the gold community here at the turd forum.

so little understanding and so much brain dead commentary some were sold on silver in 2005 .. where were these bright lights in 2000 when silver was 4.00 bucks

my take we have a bunch of copy and paste little league copy cats trying to look professional as they preen and adjust their pants to make an impression in the mirror of their own mind. Kicking the sand out of their little league cleats giving utterances of atta boys and spitting .

making wild guesses on direction and value of gold and silver ..

This does not take away from some of the very insightful posts .. but on the main to many knee jerk reaction and just downright stupid lookings for something to say and fill space with their own babblings and 20-30 year old experience as just out of day school approach to the market .

it seems like 12 years ago when the trend started most of the posters now were just graduating from middle school .

Now they post as if they have a clue and create the kind of disjointed scattered brain farts for understanding the gold and silver markets.

just like this post lol

treefrog
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:27am

side effects

Obamacin Side Effects
MrGuboci
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:27am

Bart WHO?

His name should be Bart Shillton as per the definition from wiki . And NO , I don't think he is THAT stupid . He just has zero selfrespect and does not care as long as he continues to take the money under the table just like all other prostitutes who were given the power to "regulate" and enforce the law .

A shill, plant, or stooge is a person who publicly helps a person or organization without disclosing that he has a close relationship with that person or organization. The person or group who hires the shill is using crowd psychology, to encourage other onlookers or audience members to purchase the goods or services (or accept the ideas being marketed). Shills are often employed by professional marketing campaigns. Plant and stooge more commonly refer to any person who is secretly in league with another person or organization while pretending to be neutral or actually a part of the organization he is planted in, such as a magician's audience, a political party, or an intelligence organization (see double agent) .

Unfortunately the only solution is going to be the market force and we won't see a resolution to the manipulation before that . Relying on one powerless individuals compared to the US gov and the FED is absurd . I have a feeling we are very near to this "event" though. Just talked with my silver suppliers and they said that the last 12 months were the busiest since the company exists and their clients have TRIPLED since then and the orders have been huge and they cannot satisfy the demand as perth mint is having silver problems . What was the silver price doing while the demand was at least triple for the past 12 months ? CONSOLIDATING - HAHAHA !

edit: Silver and Gold just broke the resistance !!!

Groaner
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:36am

Anyone just hear a few minutes ago Santelli on CNBC

letting Corzine have it, being well connected?? And the money going to JPM??

I wonder if Rick keeps that up, will he get the boot..

I cant wait to see what happens when the Peasants find out that all their gold was given to the FED, a private for profit bank stole their gold to suppress it to keep their money making scheme going...BLAHHHH HJAAHHHHHAAAAa IDIOTS

How will the history books read?? Well it depends on who writes them but...

Yup, as Doctor Paul Craig Roberts stated, the US is the most corrupt government in all of human history.

What really destroyed the US was their money creation scheme where they sold out to the Cartel BAnkers who guaranteed the Government all thte money they ever needed and would never need to let the people vote on what should be done with spending and WARS.. Just give us your gold and we will take care of the rest.. HAHAHA I still cant believe they did it..


Oct 31, 2012 - 11:38am
Big Buffalo
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:38am

Question

Why do we call it manipulations when the price goes from 32.37 to 32.17 in seconds, but don't call it manipulation when it goes from 32.17 to 32.37?

Torpedo Fish
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:42am

bottom confirmed ?

I guess silver has really bottomed and now we can start to build our silver pyramids from here... Is that right Ivars ?

SilverTree
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:42am

Good Q BB!

Good Q BB!

Groaner Big Buffalo
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:42am

More huge ups than downs..

plus upsides are always capped, where the downs are not,, % falls can be way over 2%..where ups are never.

Torpedo Fish
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:48am

@Big Buffalo

Because the REAL market price is above 70$

Big Buffalo
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:49am

Should haves and could haves

I should have bought silver at $4.00, then sold it at $49, then bought it back at $26.57.

darn it to heck man, I never catch the swings.

The Watchman
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:50am

US Mint-another 175,000 ASEs sold

Updated sales numbers-I hope you are buying your share

2012 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 6,107,000
6,107,000
February 1,490,000
1,490,000
March 2,542,000
2,542,000
April 1,520,000
1,520,000
May 2,875,000
2,875,000
June 2,858,000
2,858,000
July 2,278,000
2,278,000
August 2,870,000
2,870,000
September 3,255,000
3,255,000
October 2,759,000
2,759,000
Total 28,554,000
28,554,000
Dr G
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:51am

Gotta go a bit higher with SI

Gotta go a bit higher with SI to initiate some major short covering. Come on, girl...

SilverSurfers
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:52am

Ride my SeeSaw

32.40 !!!

Video unavailable

On a take down, you get a sharp drop down, then roll off, and buyer bottom support. |_

On a correction, you get a roll off, then a sharp drop off of capitulation, and V recovery. \_/

On a rally, you get a roll up and then a sharp blow off. _/ Step Up, classic bull market

On a rampage, you get a sharp blow up, then a sharp roll up, exhaustion, and /\ spike up-down. Bull market probes higher.

Bulls push it up from 32.16, to 32.40 in a normal bull market rally,

and started getting disorderly to the up side, and then CAP, a step up complete.

Classic Bull market action

With all them mattresses floating around NJ NY this morning,

someone made a trip to the CRIMEX ...

Broke out over 32.25 resistance, testing 32.50, and that 25ct range until TOMORROW.

:)

SilverTree Groaner
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:53am

@Groaner

Never, say never.

Dr G Big Buffalo
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:54am

(No subject)

Why do we call it manipulations when the price goes from 32.37 to 32.17 in seconds, but don't call it manipulation when it goes from 32.17 to 32.37?

Those events taken by themselves could indeed be manipulation. But in the greater context of evidence, it is clear that the metals are largely manipulated only to the downside. Metal bearish news causes them to go down. Metal bullish news also often causes them to go down. When other commodities are up, metals can go down. Thin trading? Huge drops (never huge ups). Big moves the same time every day? Yes, but nearly always to the downside. The list goes on and on.

Upside is always capped at % gains, as well. That happens in no other market.

henry
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:55am
Mickey
Oct 31, 2012 - 11:57am

Obamacare design

aside from the philosophical aspect-has anyone here designed and implemented a software system for a decent sized company?

If so, you know how many i's have to be dotted and t's have to be crossed.

None of that happened with the Obamacare process. So as a businessperson I have that huge problem with Obamacare--

history shows the big govt entitlement programs are not well thought out--nice to have depending on perspective but are not affordable.

Social Security is going bust with everything else--the income assumption (bruce kasting brought this into play) is 3% over inflation--well treasuries pay under 2% and we know inflation is by false govt accounting over 2%.

Benefits are underestimated-life expectancies are too long.

The pay ceiling for 2013 is going up 3.7% but benefits going up 1.7%. Medicare all screwed up-prescription drugs underfunded too.

I like precious metals chances just based on the entitlements.

not to mention ongoing deficits and enron type accounting.

Corsair
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:03pm

new thread

new thread

SilverSurfers
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:07pm

I should have bought silver

I should have bought silver at $4.00, then sold it at $49, then bought it back at $26.57. darn it to heck man, I never catch the swings.

Just Remember Puck T's famous words.

Dont worry about picking tops and bottoms,

but rather, get within 10% of bottom, and HOLD and 10% of the top.

In this last foray, I fired at 32 and change, about even.

Did I get bottom, HECK NO!

Do I even care? HECK NO! cas Im Alley Oop

close enough, 32.80 pullin trigger, with a 31.50 low on this move.

Tuffest man there is alive, look at the CAVEMAN HOLD

Alley Oop - The Hollywood Argyles
Hawk
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:36pm

I'm not a big fan of the

I'm not a big fan of the manipulation argument.

That's not to say I don't understand it or agree with the fact that large trading entities use their size to distort price in either direction to their advantage. Firstly the reason why the commercials go short against everyone else is mainly because no one really wants to be short the metals in size over a long period of time and they have their own desires on actual physical metals. (whether this is for themselves or for clients be they foreign or domestic, countries or companies I know not)

The metals are moved up and down primarily by the commercials as they are the largest players in the metals markets, they aren't the only factor that moves price but they certainly are the largest.

1) Intra day the commercials will flush weaker positions trying to piggy back on their positions (hence silver and gold often wash out weak stops with slightly higher highs or lows before reversing)

2) longer term price will be determined by a combination of physical demand and fund interest in the metals, in silver this also consist of industrial demand.

The reason why we were able to see such a prolonged down move and consolidation is because the volatility induced by the commercials scared away new long interest and a dollar rally scared away currency traders from going long, the MFG and PFG style collapses prevented many entities from trading long on the comex due to risk compliance rules of their funds.

This left only physical demand, In silver this is primarily industrial demand and with a slowing economy worldwide and a crumbling price of silver forward purchases of metal to protect against price surges was deemed unnecessary, investment demand waited to see where we would bottom and then ramped up demand into the lows.

The metal sort in physical was largely offset by drawing in new managed money and small entities short into the lows by capping price below watched moving averages and round numbers ($30 in silver and $1600 on gold) Note that these prices are now well below us and unlikely to be visited again in this bull market.

From here I expect we see a squeeze of anybody with short stops above the market as millage to the downside is now not significant enough to warrant further declines, understand that for a decline to be successful it must create long liquidation, this means using the leverage of traders against them and testing their resolve, if all long traders used no margin (or very little) then the commercials could not rig price lower by scaring them into believing price will at any moment drop $10, I believe that having dropped price $10 in silver in a day and gold $80+ on more than one occasion last year they successfully created a precedent that will make longs who can be forced to liquidate do so earlier this time and then to their shock the waterfall decline will not materialize.

However as evidenced by the COT report again the longs as a group are not backing down and physical demand is increasing on dips, thus anyone who will be stopped out is likely already out and its now time to harvest the shorts who jumped in on the decline. Having not broken $1700 or $31 the metals are now set to challenge overhead resistance again, should be interesting to see if the commercials blink first.

Either way having figured out what turds HEH predication is based on I'm expecting a solid breach to the upside of $35.

HAWK

WhyMeLord Magpie
Oct 31, 2012 - 8:25pm

Pap Smears

Well I don't think it's funny at all, it is very sad that you ended up with cervical cancer. But you have to understand there are limits.

The links at the Wiki article are quite clear about the testing results. Unfortunately, we, as a society cannot afford to absorb all the costs of maintaining everyone's health. You, unfortunately fell off the tail end of the curve. As things get economically worse, there will be more which fall into this category. Ugly to think about, but unless things change dramatically, that will be life as we know it.

Nowadays, health care is decided by epidemiological studies and cost benefit ratios, if you end up outside the boundaries, you are f*cked.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by SteveW, 30 min 16 sec ago
by Noteriety, 33 min 19 sec ago
by SteveW, 1 hour 14 min ago
by anarchitect, 1 hour 30 min ago
by surfeitndearth, 1 hour 37 min ago
by ArcadiaEconomics, 1 hour 59 min ago
randomness