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Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 31, 2012 - 5:50am

AU and Ag

having a nice rally in London, I wonder how long that will last.

Titus Andronicus
Oct 31, 2012 - 6:05am

Bart Chilton

Bart Chilton is one phony four-letter-word-that-starts-with-F.

His role is to be the pressure valve so that when the four-letter-word-that-starts-with-S hits the fan, the CFTC can point to his meaningless double talk and say that "we tried". I'm convinced that this is his only purpose.

Until he puts some DEFINITE ACTION behind his empty words, he should be considered a common whore -- just like the rest at the CFTC.

SilverDog66 dgstage
Oct 31, 2012 - 6:16am

Come on AU,AG!!

Come on dgstage, dont be pesimistic , we need to be positive!! The UK has done the job off breaking the week long wedge, now its your turn USA!!

Oct 31, 2012 - 6:21am

I had a dream tonight

That silver gained about 4.6%. I actually saw the green figures before my eyes.

If the dream was reliable this should pan out today or tomorrow or the day after.

I had this 3 times before, and 2 out of 3 were right! I am very curious if the dream is right this time....

Oct 31, 2012 - 6:48am


Gold Producers Climbing Off 28-Year Low Versus Metal By Liezel Hill - Oct 31, 2012 12:00 AM ET Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and other bullion producers are climbing from 28-year lows relative to the metal as they tame costs, raise cash flow and beat profit estimates.

Share-valuation measures have improved since mid-year, suggesting a return of optimism regarding the sector, Kenneth Hoffman, a Bloomberg Industries analyst, said in an Oct. 29 report. Goldcorp Inc. (G) and Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) rose the most in almost five months after their earnings last week beat analysts’ forecasts. Barrick, the world’s largest producer, reports results tomorrow.

“The gold shares are starting to outperform the gold price,” David Christensen, chief executive officer of ASA Ltd. a San Mateo, California-based company that manages about $550 million and invests in precious metals companies. “As the companies begin to tighten their operating constraints and generate more cash flow, we’re seeing some of that turnaround in the valuations in the industry.”

The 56-company S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (SPTSGD) has gained 12 percent since June 30 through yesterday, compared with a 6.7 percent increase in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Gold futures in New York have risen 6.7 percent in the same period.

The gain is a reversal from the past two years when equities underperformed relative to the metal and the broader market as investors bought exchange-traded bullion funds for exposure to the metal’s 11-year rise, while producers battled surging costs to build and operate mines. Companies responded by focusing on improving profits and cash flow instead of just growing output, which is helping valuations, Christensen said by phone Oct. 29.

Inflection Point

The 30-company Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index is near a 28-year low relative to gold, Hoffman said Oct. 29. Inflection points in stock cycles have historically occurred when the ratio trades above or below two standard deviations or more from the normal relationship, a situation that is occurring for only the fourth time in the past three decades, he said.

“At a certain point, those equity investors would realize, ‘Hey, things aren’t as bad as we thought,’” Hoffman said in a phone interview from Skillman, New Jersey. “All of a sudden, once the equities start performing better and better, they really take off.”

The average trailing 12-month cash flow per share of the eight Canadian gold producers valued at more than $5 billion has more than doubled in the past two years, to $2.13.

Read More (and there is more!)

Oct 31, 2012 - 6:53am

Sauce for goose not sauce for gander:

Cameron Faces Revolt as Conservatives Demand EU Budget Cut By Kitty Donaldson - Oct 31, 2012 5:17 AM ET Prime Minister David Cameron faces a rebellion from Conservative lawmakers who are demanding a cut in the European Union budget, highlighting the splits in his party over Europe.

Cameron wants the budget to rise only in line with inflation and his spokesman yesterday signaled he is ready to wield the British veto in EU talks next month if necessary. More than 30 Conservative lawmakers have backed a rebel amendment to a U.K. parliamentary vote today, demanding Cameron toughens his negotiating stance and argues for a real-terms cut.

“This is not an anti-European amendment,” Tory lawmaker Mark Pritchard, who introduced the measure, said in a telephone interview. “It merely represents the view of millions of U.K. taxpayers that the EU budget should not be increased at a time of financial austerity and fiscal restraint in the U.K. which has seen family, local council and government budgets cut.”

The European Commission has proposed a spending package of 1.033 trillion euros ($1.34 trillion) for the years 2014 through 2020, an increase of almost 6 percent compared with the 2007- 2013 budget. EU leaders will try to clinch a deal at a Nov. 22- 23 summit. Cameron has said the spending proposal is excessive at a time of national fiscal constraints and has vowed to use the British veto for a second time unless he gets “a good deal.”


Oct 31, 2012 - 7:02am

Funny, simplistic and biased:

KLAVAN: Picking Losers, Why Cronyism Isn't Capitalism

Oct 31, 2012 - 7:32am

Now that I have your undivided attention

Is anybody out there? Silver is having a fine morning, and the monkeys seem to be sleeping. The euro is up, but gold in euros isn't down. Things are looking good, if you are in the hard asset camp.

Oct 31, 2012 - 7:59am

CA Lawyer

I would expect corporations to get a free pass on firing full-time employees, similar to how mortgage fraud was changed from a crime to "sloppiness", per the POTUS. It seems that "full-time" is being redefined down to 30 hours.

If Wallyworld has 1 million 40-hour employees, but needs to make them all 29-hour, then they need 350,000 more employees to get that 40 million man-hour week. Unemployment problem solved!

Fr. Bill
Oct 31, 2012 - 8:19am

At Will principle doesn't apply in California?

I am puzzled, CA Lawyer. Are California's employees NOT hired and retained "at will?" And, if so, how does your client's fact pattern relate to that?

Just scanning Wikipedia's overview of the idea, I see it lists several exceptions to at-will employment which include exceptions for disabilities. Is that how you plan to challenge her firing?

I don't want to derail this thread into some labor law arcana. But, if there's a short answer to my question, it's another opportunity for us torch-and-pitchfork-types to pick up a potentially useful tip or two outside the subject area of precious metals.

Oct 31, 2012 - 8:23am

@ S Roche Concensus

"I stand by everything derogatory I said about Kitco."

At least we will always agree on this. ;-)


Oct 31, 2012 - 8:30am

Hendry & Santa ...

Hendry one of the few 'guardians' in the wealth mgmt arena worth paying attention IMO as his views on the evolving global financial crisis have been spot-on, however his comments @ Buttonwood re: sov gov't confiscation of PM miners likely misplaced (as Santa opines) ex those jurisdictions where it is already high probability ... just another element inthe decision making process for those of us involved with the PM mining companies.

Oct 31, 2012 - 8:35am

Very encouraging

And right in line with the projections listed above in this post.

Now, let's just keep rolling and not give it all back.

Oct 31, 2012 - 8:49am

B.O. has a new "body man":) Reggie Love is so...



Barack Obama Doesn't Trust Your Dirty Hands ... Says Ex-Body Man EXCLUSIVE
President Barack Obama doesn't want your disgusting germs ... this according to his former "body man" Reggie Love.

Love -- who served as Obama's personal aide from 2007 to 2011 -- was hanging out at the DNC in North Carolina this week when he told us the Top 3 items a good "body man" should have on him at all times.

The list isn't too impressive ... but there is one interesting "must-have" -- Purell ... the hand sanitizer.
Read more: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pre-Sandy, Chris Christie likened Barack Obama to "a man wandering around a dark room, hands up against the wall, clutching for the light switch of leadership, and he just can’t find it."

Post-Sandy, the New Jersey governor described the president as "outstanding," "great," and "incredibly supportive."

Although a superstorm can make quite a difference, there's nothing new about Christie's inability to mince words. And unlike other Republicans, he's not afraid to appear -- or even, act -- bi-partisan.


See? I make fun of Republicans too

Oct 31, 2012 - 8:49am

One Year Rate Back to "Normal"

Gold Lease Rates

October 31, 2012
1 m -0.3617% -0.0117
2 m -0.3817% -0.0117
3 m -0.4050% -0.0033
6 m -0.4567% -0.0034
1 y 0.3638% +0.8721

Wonder how many contracts were rolled yesterday?

Also wonder how many contracts (or ounces) of metal are leased. What percentage of the holdings is it? 10% or 90%? At what level do the wheels fall off this scam?

So many questions, maybe Turd can find some answers for us.


Oct 31, 2012 - 9:01am

Cnbs is messed up - silver 3,225?

I looked at gold and silver just now on CNBC's website... it has silver at 3,225! Scared the crap out of me till I looked at a real site and saw the actual price. Ah well, perhaps it's a snapshot of the future price ...we can all hope.

Oct 31, 2012 - 9:15am

I have believed in Silver since 2005

At the beginning of 2005, I watched an interview with Ted Butler. After listening, I went to work and researched every thing I could and came to the conclusion he was right. Silver would explode to $18 an ounce. I have not been sorry at all. I was on the train when it went to $21 and then down to $8.50. I was on the train from $17 to $49 and down to $26. I was on the train when all the web sites only talked of gold and silver was a stupid investment.

But after all these years, there is something out of the equation that I seemed to have missed. I thought when the governments printed money Silver would go UP! When one gov after another were falling , again Silver would go UP! When there were shortages of physical Silver ...........Silver would go UP! When the crap hit the fan ....Silver would go UP!

All the news is Positive for Silver. And yet silver has been beaten up for over a year. I would imagine 52 trading days a year that silver would be up, but it seems that TPTB don't even give you one up day a week.

I was promised a great summer. If you call going from $36 down to $26 and then back to $32 great, I guess it was.

If you can tell me what I am missing, please do.

PS. I went to the Pawn Shop yesterday and talked with the owner. Last year he was holding all the silver he could get, now he gets it in and makes his percent and doesn't hold anymore. He showed me a Chip and Dale set he was looking to spend over $1 million dollars on. Is this the end of the ride for a while ????

Oct 31, 2012 - 9:24am

Meanwhile...deep under NYC

NYC Underground: Travel 600 feet down
Oct 31, 2012 - 9:41am

Cities of the Underworld - New York

Everything you're about to see is probably underwater right now.

Video unavailable

I have another full documentary on the "Sandhogs" at this link...


B. Bernanke: "QE is necessary....the benefits outweigh the costs." Jackson Hole ~ 8/31/12

DayStar 50Jim
Oct 31, 2012 - 9:45am


The world as we know it is about to end. Our economy will crash, war will break out, and chaos will ensue. This will reset the financial system where gold and silver resume their rightful place as honest money. Right now the cartel controls the price of PMs in fiat, and that is what people look at. In reality, gold and silver are already the money the cartel uses, because they know what is going to happen to fiat. However, they are stealing all they can from the masses. The banks even sponsor these "I buy gold" shops where they lose money on the store. Turkey is still trying to get citizens to turn in their gold (that they likely will never see again) for free fiat. So the process continues. Also, PMs are still being transferred East, and that's part of the plan, so they keep them cheap while the Eastern alchemy turns paper into gold.

We are actually in the last stages of the collapse of our currency, and the cartel knows it, but they have a schedule to keep, hence the continued frenzied manipulation. The cartel has succeeded in keeping a lid on it because of the power of naked shorting, but physics will eventually overcome fraud, and truth will out. When the last of the metal is gone, there will either be a commercial signal failure on the silver exchanges or there will be a disconnect between silver and paper where physical prices go bonkers even though paper languishes. My bet is there will be a commercial signal failure, but it's only a guess. They have been successful in keeping it going for several years, and there is no telling what they might do to hide the truth. We have already seen multiple margin hikes in day, planned takedowns of major brokers, HFT manipulation, after hours ridiculousness, and multiple computer suppression algorithms. They might even close the exchange. Whatever they do, silver and gold will eventually appreciate in acceptance and purchasing power. You just have to be able to hold on to it if you can. This system will break. If you can survive the collapse, your hoard's purchasing power will greatly increase. Preparing for the worst is insurance and likely your only hope. All fiat will resume its native worth as will gold and silver. You just have to live long enough to enjoy it.


Oct 31, 2012 - 9:47am

Perspective (click bottom link for scale)

New Yorkers go about unaware of what is happening just beneath their feet: Power pulses, information flies, and steam flows. The city’s infrastructure starts just below street level, but it doesn’t stop there.

Oct 31, 2012 - 9:50am

FWIW, Apmex is showing a 77%

FWIW, Apmex is showing a 77% reduction in inventory for 10 ozt gold bars and a 69% reduction in inventory for 1 ozt gold bars within the last 24 hours:

Beastly Stack
Oct 31, 2012 - 9:50am


When you see all the devastation and destruction along the NEW Jersey Shorline,there are estimations being thrown out there of 20 to 50 billion dollars in damage.

With all the talk of TRILLIONS of dollars in the past 5 years that the FED has pumped into the economy.

And now they are pumping in another 45 Billion each month with no end in sight!

Just put those #'s in perspective and think about the destruction we have all seen these past couple of days,think how badly broken the global financial system is!

What a shame it truly is-I certainly am no sheep!

Keep Stack'n and God help us all!

Oct 31, 2012 - 9:53am


Need to convert pennyweights to grams?

Grams to troy ounces?

Troy ounces to pennyweights?

Download your print quality (pdf) pennyweight conversion chart.

Pennyweight Grams Kilograms Grains weight Troy ounces Troy Pounds Avoirdupois ounces Avoirdupois pounds Karats
1 pennyweight 1 1.552 0.0016 24 0.05 0.004166667 0.0549 0.003428 7.77587
1 gram 0.64 1 0.001 15.43 0.0322 0.002679241 0.0353 0.002204 5
1 kilogram 643.01 1000 1 15432 32.151 2.67922 35.274 2.20462 5000
1 grain 0.04 0.06 0.00006 1 0.002 0.000173 0.0229 0.000142 0.323995
1 troy oz 20 31.104 0.03115 480 1 0.083333 1.0971 0.068571 155.517
1 troy lb 240 373.24 0.3732 5760 12 1 13.166 0.822857 1866.208
1 oz avoid 18.230 28.35 0.0284 437.52 0.912 0.075954 1 0.062499 141.747
1 lb avoid 291.68 453.59 0.4536 7000.32 14.583 1.21527 16 1 2267.961
1 karat 0.13 0.2 0.0002 3.09 0.00643 0.000535 0.00705 0.00044 1

Download your Pennyweight Conversion Chart (pdf)

Oct 31, 2012 - 9:58am



Everything is back up and running fine, we are currently capped at 32.30$

4406PACK 50Jim
Oct 31, 2012 - 10:19am

there is no end to this

there is no end to this ride

Buckle your chin strap and get ready for the 3 rd quarter

Oct 31, 2012 - 10:21am

(((((Echoes & Ripples)))))

S'hhh.....and you'll hear a pin drop.

Video unavailable
Ripples - Genesis Remaster (1976) SACD FLAC ~MetalGuruMessiah~

Oct 31, 2012 - 10:34am

Fr. Bill - At Will Employment

At-will means that an employee is free to leave the job for any reason, and that an employer is free to let the employee go for any reason. This is contrasted with a worker who is employed on a contract basis, like a pro baseball player, or a worker in a union with collective bargaining rights. A union worker is still at-will, but has a grievance procedure that can be utilized in the event of a termination. However, the employer cannot take an adverse job action (termination is an adverse job action) against the at-will employee for an illegal reason. It is illegal to terminate an employee because of a disability, because of gender, or age, or religion or natural origin, and this is true under federal law as well as California state law (Gov't Code). So while an employer may want to fire an at-will worker, which is perfectly legal, if te employer does so based on age or a worker's disability, then the employer faces a civil suit and payment of money damages. I am a trial lawyer, and I exclusively represent workers, and I can tell you that my phone is ringing off the hook from prospective clients. There is no recovery from the economic recession here in California. At least not from what I see every day. If you have more questions, let me know.

Oct 31, 2012 - 10:47am

for all the new socialist trolls here today-----obozocare

we already had emergency healthcare for buddies sleeps- in -the -woods-indigant brother has a MAYO CLINIC card....FACT......wlks right in there everytime his pancreas freaks from drinking wayyyyy tooo much.....they love him there.

and no, even the richest country in the world[mostly in the last 40 years from robbing from tomorrow] cannot afford cradle to grave on demand healthcare for everyone.

we have 70 trillion dollars in socsec/medical liabilities promised to every american alive now BEFORE obozocare.

u can tax everyone at 100% and not balance the budget going forward.

my 76 year old buddy with 6 months left to live from prostate cancer---they [us-medicare] just replaced his knee he has been putting up with for the last 15 YEARS......his knee?.............jeesus


there are those of us that didn't flunk math and those that DID.

whole country from cities to feds is insolvent and you guys want someone to have the right to go to the doctor everytime they sneeze so the doc can tell them there is no cure for the common cold.........

or to tell some 300 lb person they are diabetic and sick because they can't stop eating..........NEXT!

dissclaimer------------i have not had health insurance in 30 years.

i can't afford it..........i don't want it...........its my damn choice........

Oct 31, 2012 - 10:48am

Does Germany (publicly) want to know the audit results?

Precious Metal Abroad Why Germany Wants to See its US Gold


For decades, almost half of Germany's gold has been stored deep below the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, with the euro crisis swirling, German politicians are asking their central bankers to take stock of the reserves. Some even say that the gold should be shipped home.

10/30/2012 30.10.2012

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.

There, 6,000 gold bars are stacked on industrial-strength shelves in a purpose-built building in Frankfurt. An additional 76,000 bars of bullion are stored in four safe boxes, in sealed containers.

But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."

For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.

Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of...


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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