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Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


WhyMeLord Magpie
Oct 30, 2012 - 10:49pm

Pap Smears

Recommended every 3-5 years for sexually active females above 20-25 years of age.

More than that and you are over doing it.


Screening guidelines vary from country to country. In general, screening starts about the age of 20 or 25 and continues until about the age of 50 or 60.[8] Screening is typically recommended every three to five years, as long as results are normal.[2][7]

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:49pm


for the response, Battle Beagle!

S Roche
Oct 30, 2012 - 11:10pm

@Martdin re Lease Rates

Those were the "small" Kitco lease rates, which, if accurate, would match the "detailed" lease rates here: , which they don't.

So, just another example of sloppy data entry from the Kitco staff and management who couldn't be arsed to do their job properly.

SIFO rates are available here and you have to get the daily LIBOR from the BBA (Twitter) and then do the sums yourself because Kitco can't.

The Watchman
Oct 30, 2012 - 11:17pm

FUNNY- From Santa's Website

Here is a picture of some terrifying storm damage from Hurricane Sandy.

The Watchman
Oct 30, 2012 - 11:34pm

Article from 2010-WAITING for it-

Welcome to the Mania

By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

You log on to your brokerage account for the third time that day and see your precious metal portfolio has doubled from last week. Gold and silver stocks have been screaming upward for weeks. Everyone around you is panicking from runaway inflation and desperate to get their hands on any form of gold or silver. It’s exhilarating and frightening in the same breath. Welcome to the mania.

Daily gains of 20% in gold and silver producers become common, even expected. Valuations have been thrown out the window – this is no time for models and charts and analysis. It’s not greed; it’s survival. Get what you can, while you can. Investors clamor to buy any stock with the word “gold” in its title. Fear of being left behind is palpable.

The shares of junior exploration companies have gone ballistic. They double and triple in days, then double and triple again. Many have already risen ten-fold. You have several up 10,000%. No end is in sight. Your portfolio swells bigger every day. Your life is changing right in front of you at warp speed.

Every business program touts the latest hot gold or silver stock. It’s all they can talk about. Headlines blare anything about precious metals, no matter how trivial. Weekly news magazines and talk-radio hosts dispense free stock picks. CNBC and Bloomberg battle to be first with the latest news. Each tick in the price of gold and silver flashes on screen, and interruptions offering the latest prediction seem to happen every fifteen minutes. Breathy reporters yell above the noise on the trade floor about insane volume, and computers that can’t keep up. Entire programs are devoted to predicting the next winner. You watch to see if some of your stocks are named. You can’t help it.

The only thing growing faster than your portfolio is the number of new “gold experts.” It’s a bull market in bull.

You can feel the crazed mass psychology all around you. Your co-workers know you bought gold some time ago and pepper you with questions seemingly every hour, interrupting your work. They ask if you heard about the latest pick from Fox Business. They want to know where you buy gold, who has the best price, and, by the way, how do I know if my gold is real? They all look at you differently now. Women smile at you in the hallway. You worry someone may follow you home.

Your relatives once teased you but now hound you with questions at family get-togethers – what stocks do you own? What’s that gold newsletter telling you? Where can I keep my bullion? You don’t want to be the life of the party, but they force it – it’s all anyone wants to talk about. Your brother tells you he dumped his broker and is trading full-time. Another relative shoves his account statement in front of you and wants advice. You sense someone will ask for a loan. You don’t know what to tell people. The attention is discomforting, and you feel the urge to escape.

At first it was exciting, then breathtaking. Now it’s scary. You’re drowning in obscene profits but are becoming increasingly anxious about how long it can last. Worry replaces excitement. You don’t know if you should sell or hold on. Nobody knows what to do. But the next day, your portfolio screams higher and you feel overwhelmed once again.

You grab the local paper and read the town’s bullion shop had a break-in last night. They hired a security company and have posted several guards outside and inside the store. Premiums have skyrocketed, but lines still form every day. The proprietor hands out tickets when locals arrive: your number will be called when it’s your turn… the wait will be long… please have your order ready… yesterday we ran out of stock at 11am.

You begin to worry about the security of your own stash of bullion – those clever hiding spots don’t feel quite as secure as you first thought they’d be. Is the bank safe deposit box really secure? Shouldn’t they hire a security guard? Should I move some of it elsewhere? Is there anywhere truly safe? You find yourself checking gun prices online.

And it’s all happening because the dollar is crashing and inflation has scourged every part of life. You curse at those who said this couldn’t happen and mock past assurances from government. Cash is a hot potato, and spending it before it loses more purchasing power is a daily priority. Everyone is clamoring to get something that can’t lose value, but mostly gold and silver.

Your wife calls and says the $100 you gave her that morning isn’t enough to buy groceries for dinner. Prices change often on everything. She urges you to get some bread and milk before the stores raises the price again. You suddenly remember you’re low on gas and make plans to leave work early to beat others to the filling station. Restaurants and small businesses post prices on a chalkboard and update them throughout the day. Employers scramble to work out an “inflation adjustment” for salaries.

On your way home, the radio broadcaster reports the government has convened an emergency summit of all heads of state. They’re working urgently on the problem, and all other agendas have been tabled. Outside experts have been called in. We’re going to solve this rampant flood of inflation for the American people, they say. In your gut you know there’s nothing they can do.

You change the channel and hear about the spike in arrests of U.S. citizens at the Canadian border. Scads of people are caught trying to sneak bullion and stock certificates out of the country – from airports to rail stations. Violence at borders has escalated, and stories of bloodshed are getting common. The White House ordered heightened security at all U.S. borders, with the media reporting it can take days to cross. Foreign governments offer meaningless help, others mock U.S. leaders for their shortsightedness. Their countries are suffering, too.

You think about the gains in your portfolio and wince at the taxes you’ll pay when you sell. Nothing has been indexed to inflation, so everyone has been pushed into higher tax brackets. Citizens are furious with government. Agencies have been swarmed with bitter taxpayers and revolting benefit recipients. One government office was set on fire. A riot erupted in Washington, D.C. last week and martial law was temporarily declared. It’s too dangerous to travel anywhere.

As crazy as things are, it’s hard not to smile. You’re in the middle of a mania. Your life has changed permanently. You’re part of the new rich. You can quit work, live off your investments. Your wife is ecstatic, and you both feel as if it’s your second honeymoon. Your kids are amazed and gaze at you with the same awe they did when they were children.

You’re thankful you bought gold and silver before the mania, along with precious metal stocks. You daydream of where you might go, what you might buy. New options open up daily. You realize you’ll need to meet with your accountant, maybe hire a second one to protect your sudden wealth. You wonder what you’ll invest in next. You ponder what charities are worthwhile. Better meet with the attorney to redraft the will.

As night settles and your house quiets, you log on to your brokerage account one last time. Even though you’re ready for it, your mouth drops when you see your account balance. It is truly overwhelming. You think of others who own gold and silver stocks and wonder if any have sold yet. Has Doug Casey exited?

You stare at the blinking screen, hand on the mouse, the cursor hovering on the sell button…

[Ed. Note: We can’t promise the gold mania will be exactly like Jeff outlines, but we’re convinced one is coming for all things gold and silver. And to be prepared for the coming events, you’d do well to listen to those experts who have predicted the quagmire the financial system now finds itself in long before it happened. An all-star cast including John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold Fund fame… Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management… Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters… and many more.

BagOfGold The Watchman
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:06am

The Watchman...

"Welcome To The Mania"...great article...every gold mining investor's dream come true!...However...there should always be a plan to sell...& when the mania will be the hardest thing to do!...Your plan...Do you want to be completely out by $2000 gold...$2500 gold...$3000 gold...$5000+?...Do you want to be out before a global stock market crash & devalution of currencies (& how will you know when that is)?...What will you do with the fiat money when you sell?...Will you buy food/preps/land/physical gold/silver!...When everyone piles in to should be selling...& having a plan to keep your profits is more important than anything else!...

When many are crying...that's when I'm buying...When stocks are soaring & many are bet I'll be selling!...The key thing is not to be too greedy!!!...

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler

Bag Of Gold

Oct 31, 2012 - 12:09am

@Jeff Clark article-welcome to the mania


That's like reading some twisted smut.

one loses sight of what one may expect with the endless price suppressing scheming

Oct 31, 2012 - 12:37am

Clink, I din't mean to run you off the board.

We have some people here that respect Reality and are willing to stand up for it. Though you have mostly offered forwards and cartoons, I think your heart is in the right place doing so.

And I know it sucks realizing that you have been decieved. An IDIOT ;) kept posting 911 stuff for years on another forum and one cold and rainy weekend, I decided to debunk what he said.

After several days of looking into it, I went into depression. That was in 2005, and I realized how much our good minds are controlled and used.

Take care my friend, and grow a garden, It's the best you can do for your grandkids. If they were mine, I'd love to teach them how a tomato comes from a bloom.

God Bless,


x ¤
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:43am


Do you agree with Santa or not?

S Roche x
Oct 31, 2012 - 12:50am


Yeah I agree with Santa...that hair is terrifying.

I also agree with him regarding confiscation. I didn't hear the Hendry interview but I would be surprised if Hendry really thinks that will happen.

Oct 31, 2012 - 1:09am

Pap Smear

I thought a Pap smear was an offensive remark about a Greek President?? ;-)

Oct 31, 2012 - 1:23am


The only thing more terrifying than the hair is the bloviation. "We need to stop getting screwed by the Saudis and the Chinese", without, of course, any details as to how he would sigle-handedly change the terms of world trade and Global markets. Presumably, "We'll stop importing oil from the Middle East and anything from China. That'll teach 'em" Real smart. Sheesh................

Oct 31, 2012 - 1:41am

True Story

I just signed up a client today. She is 61 years old. She was fired recently, and asked if I could help her. I agreed to hear her story. I get more and more cases like this every month. Anyhow. . . The client was working full time as a cashier at a retail grocery store. She earned near minumum wage, and received employer sponsored health care as a benefit. She began taking medication for a condition, at a doctor's orders, which medication also required her to take more frequent bathroom breaks than the 1 break every three hours that her employer permitted. The employer grew weary of the situation, and tried to restrict my client's bathroom breaks. Then one day recently, the employer fired my client. The employer claimed that my client scanned three cases of doctor pepper instead of two cases of doctor pepper and one case of coke. Each case was priced the same, so no loss occurred to the store. Yet, the employer determined that adequate grounds existed to terminate my client. When I repeatedly questioned my client as to why the employer would want to get rid of a long term employee, my client had no real answer. I persisted. It turns out, thst since her termination, the employer has hired two new PART-TIME workers, each of which gets zero benefits, and is limited to no more than 30 hours per week. CONCLUSIONS: Obama care in action, and the law of unintended consequences. Oh I am taking this case for sure. Age and disability discrimination theories of illegal employer conduct are certain winners for my client. This employer conduct is illegal in all 50 ststes, so do not rush to blame California for its liberal laws. So why would the employer risk paying out in litigation for terminating my client? Because Obama care is the bigger expense, that is why!!!! Unbelievable. This is not unlike the cash-for-clunkers program in its misguided, govt-centered approach to problem solving. In short, this particular employer did a cost benefit analysis. Why bother paying tens of thousands for employee health care when all the employer has to do is reduce full time workers to fall into the exception from Obama care? Sure, there will be some costs, like paying my client and me to settle and move along. But, think of the big picture. It has become cheaper to lawyer-up than pay for health care for one's employees. Radical, just unbelievable for sure! Will publicity help or hurt my case? Which political party gains from telling my client's story? Is this the beginning of a wave of suits just like this one?

Boswell philipat
Oct 31, 2012 - 1:56am

Trump vs Sandy

Finally... a stronger "wind" comes to NY! ;-)

The Watchman
Oct 31, 2012 - 2:00am


NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ponzi schemes are on the rise, according to Bart Chilton, commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


"Scam artists are ripping off Americans more than ever before," Chilton said in a speech at the New York Law School. He cited 32 cases tracked by the CFTC in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, calling the number "a new historic high."

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton

According to Chilton, in fiscal years 2010 and 2009, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed more than twice as many Ponzi cases as it filed in fiscal 2008 and the Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened more than 1,000 new investigations on Ponzi schemes--a roughly 150% increase since 2008.

Chilton told his audience that "many of the fraudsters are preying upon people through the use of 'affinity fraud,' where they use personal contacts to swindle family, friends, coworkers or even fellow church parishioners."

Chilton and the CFTC have collected various tales of fraud in a book published by the government--profits from which will go neither to him nor to the CFTC. The book's title is "Ponzimonium--How Scam Artists are Ripping Off America."

"It is Ponzimonium out there. Individuals need to be more vigilant than ever about their investments," Chilton said.

-- Written by Dan Freed in New York.Follow me on twitter.

Boswell philipat
Oct 31, 2012 - 2:02am

Get Aboard the Gold Bandwagon

Ugh, double post... Here's something related to the "Gold Mania" article.

Oct 31, 2012 - 2:14am

US Healthcare

Obamacare is a disaster because it demonstrates a total lack of understanding of the workings of the market, as do most Government initiatives, no matter how well intended.

However, I would also have thought that in the world's wealthiest nation, it should be possible to provide healthcare to ALL citizens in such a way that it does not cause bankruptcy when suffering a serious illness.

The essential problem in the US is that the "Fee for service" model has never been able to control costs anywhere in the world. Big Pharma makes 80%+ of its TOTAL profits in the US alone. The Hospitals and Insurers do very nicely and remember also that about 17% of the top 1% income earners in the US are Physicians.

It seems to take a total collapse of anything in the US before there is any serious attention and change. It is coming to healthcare, largely because of the practices CALaw describes. Corporations will very soon not provide healthcare benefits (Or defined benefits pensions) so very few individuals will be able to afford today's healthcare insurance. This plus co-payments and/or cost controls and exemptions will finally bring some market forces into play.

Of course, the Corporatocracy and their part-time employees in Congress will remain the main beneficiaries of any change in the United Corporatocracy of America.

Oct 31, 2012 - 2:21am

True Story@California Lawyer

The main provisions of the Affordable Care Act do not even take effect until 2014, and it includes an increase in small business tax credits. Therefore, I do not think that this is a factor in your client's firing, unless the employer is getting his news from Fox News. Anyone getting their information from a biased source such as Fox News will be getting a very slanted picture of what the Act does or does not do. For actual information, go to the official source:

The Watchman
Oct 31, 2012 - 2:23am

Insight regarding Bart

From Oscar Wilde to Star Trek, CFTC Commissioner Adds Pep to His Message

In a city filled with federal agency commissioners making speeches every day, Bart Chilton of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission stands apart.

From Star Trek to Taoism, Tom Petty to Starsky & Hutch, March Madness to Moneyball, Chilton is known for leavening potentially dry-as-dust subject matter with abundant pop culture references.

His CFTC colleagues give speeches with titles like “Re-proposed Procedures to Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and Block Trades.” Chilton’s are called “Lettuce Produce,” “Day Tripper,” “Huggy Bear and Position Limits” and “It Takes a Pillage – Financial Fiascos, Frauds and Fixes,” – not to mention more esoteric entries like “The Ancient Art of Glassmaking.”

It’s not that Chilton, a Democrat who formerly lobbied for the National Farmer’s Union, doesn’t delve into serious policy details – he does. But he gets there in a more round-about fashion.

“My target audience is not sophisticated Wall Street investors – it’s consumers,” he said in an interview, noting that the complex financial markets that the CFTC regulates “impact the prices people pay for just about everything they consume or use,” – whether it’s a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, a carton of orange juice, a mortgage, or the metal in the roof over their head. “One of my jobs is to try and communicate the importance of these markets and explain what’s going on.”

Or as he put it in a May 3 speech in Chicago, “We at the CFTC currently oversee approximately $5 trillion in annualized trading on regulated exchanges, but the global over-the-counter (OTC) market is roughly–here it comes…coming to get you–$708 trillion. If you Google ginormously humongous, it should say, ‘See OTC markets.’”

He’s become a sought-after public speaker – one day last week alone, he said he turned down five offers to give speeches. “I’m not saying I’m a great speaker – but I’m free,” he said. Moreover, he sees giving speeches as part of his “public duty” as a commissioner.

He keeps a list in his BlackBerry of song lyrics, T-shirt slogans, anything that strikes his fancy as a way to help explain the often impenetrable world of futures and derivatives (“There’s enough acronyms alone to drown a body,” he said.)

So he makes it fun. Usually around the third paragraph of a speech, he introduces a theme via a cultural reference (albeit sometimes dated – as he told the Citizens for Financial Reform on May 9, “One is getting old when a lot of your references seem like they need references or footnotes”).

Take his address “The Changling” delivered on March 14 to a Futures Industry Association panel, where he set up a discussion of cheetahs, or high frequency traders, and securitization or equitization of the futures markets, like this:

“It is sort of like that old episode of Star Trek, ‘The Changeling’” where the crew of the Enterprise encounters a space probe called Nomad that was designed to explore the galaxy. However, Nomad had collided with an alien probe – a probe that was to obtain and sterilize soil samples. The collision changed Nomad and transformed its mission into finding and sterilizing imperfection. And of course, biological units (like people) have imperfections. So, Nomad was sort of a problem. Kirk got it to destroy itself. The point, and I do have one, is that there were two seemingly fine technologies that, when combined, created something that was a major problemo for people.”

Then there’s his May 3 address, “Space Between Walls,” delivered at an international credit executives conference in Chicago, discussing suitable regulatory walls (a speech in which he also memorably referred to Bernie Madoff as “the Ponzimonium poster puke.”)

Chilton noted that the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded that banks prior to the 2008 crisis had “a vast amount of ‘wide open spaces’ in which to operate…Like the Dixie Chicks sing, ‘She needs wide open spaces, room to make her big mistakes.’ Well, as the ole D.C. dodge expression goes, ‘mistakes were made.’”

Near the end of the speech, which also included references to Mr. Peabody, Lao Tzu, John Mellencamp, The Graduate and Oscar Wilde, he added, “I was tempted to hum or sing a little Dave Matthews’ The Space Between. Actually, I’m still tempted, but I sound more like Governor Romney and less like President Obama, so I'd better spare you….I’ll be happy to take some questions or comments in ‘The space between what’s wrong and right, is where you’ll find me hiding, waiting for you.’ Sorry, I couldn’t resist.”

Oct 31, 2012 - 2:41am


Yes, but that is why Corporations are now planning ahead (Replacing fulltime employees with part-time employees who won't qualify for Healthcare benefits, shipping as many jobs as possible overseas and replacing humans with robots and computers) and why Health Insurers are also planning ahead (Increasing rates to the maximum extent possible NOW to cover for inclusion of pre-existing conditions, aka no longer being able to "Cherry pick". Rightly or wrongly).

Incidentally, most of the rest of the world (About 96% of Global population) is not inflicted with Faux News or any of the other wonderful US MSM (Thank heaven for small mercies).

Oct 31, 2012 - 2:58am


Libertyforall is a 12 day member. Draw your own conclusions. Employers are penalized for having full time workers. See here: and here: and here: Now, do you still insist that firing full time workers is unrelated to Obama care? p.s.: Who gets their source info from broadcast news? If you are going to be a troll, at least try to say something intelligent to get the discussion going.

Oct 31, 2012 - 3:24am

@S Roche Lease Rates

Hi S Roche, glad to see you are still around.

"Those were the "small" Kitco lease rates, which, if accurate, would match the "detailed" lease rates here: , which they don't."

You need to look again at your link because they DO match (for now).

It was my understanding from previous posts that Kitco doesn't actually enter the rates, it just streams them from an LBMA source. Sorry I don't remember the link (I thought it was you actually who provided this info) but it was discussed here before.

Now when the go back to "normal" in a day or two, don't be surpised to see the graphs "scrubbed" of the spikes as that is standard. (I believe they "normalize" the graphs, whatever that means) But as for now you can actually see the spike on your link.


Jimmy James
Oct 31, 2012 - 3:29am

The Dark Shadows

I've been a lurker since the old blog days, but now I have decided to step out of the dark shadows and join this community.

So, now that I have signed up... I look forward to speaking up!

Jimmy James

Oct 31, 2012 - 3:33am

pap smears

2 1/2 years and 5 doctors....I was "too young" to need a pap smear. #6 decided to run the test. By then I had Stage IV cancer. You might think it's funny, but you won't when someone you love is diagnosed with a cancer Obamacare refused to test for. What a bunch of jerks.

And, Happy Halloween.

El Gordo
Oct 31, 2012 - 4:19am

I'm always amazed...

...when I hear the line about the United States being the world's wealthiest nation and therefore able to provide all these benefits to the "vunerables." I would profess that we are probably the world's brokest nation. We are broker than most nations will ever have a chance to be. We can allow our politicians to continue to make promises that we are unable to fulfill until the bottom falls out and we collapse, which I suppose is why we are reading here. Keep up the good work California Lawyer.

Oct 31, 2012 - 4:38am

I'm Always Amazed too...

The US does have the highest concentration of wealth in the world. It's just that it is concentrated into the hands of a few. I would maintain that investing in a healthcare system (Or almost anything else, actually) would have been better than wasting Billions on bailing out Banks. In developed Europe/Canada/Australia etc., taxes may be higher BUT there is security and dignity in return. People don't go bankrupt when they get sick, for instance.

That said, I agree with CaLaw, which you will see should you take the trouble to read my posts in their entirety.

El Gordo
Oct 31, 2012 - 5:10am

I would represent...

...that our health care system is the envy of the world. At the risk of sounding political, I can think of any number of things we have wasted money on that could have been spent for better purposes, or even not spent at all and use to repay debt. I would further suggest that if the government had never interfered in the "payment" part of the health care equation we would likely have affordable health care insurance for most, with room for a safety net under those who could not. But then I think that just about everything would be better off if government were out of the way.

S Roche
Oct 31, 2012 - 5:28am

@Zoltan Lease Rates

Thanks...this is so screwy! Now "Detailed" show the spike down and "Small" do not:


"Detailed" though 1 month is showing a spike up and 12 month is showing down now. Who knows what they will show when you click on them, it changed from the time I posted it before.

The LBMA get their feed from London Silver Market Fixing Ltd...the LIBOR minus SIFO rate is delayed 7 days as you can see here:

I stand by everything derogatory I said about Kitco.

Oct 31, 2012 - 5:42am
Oct 31, 2012 - 5:46am


...gonna' do it. Serenity now:)

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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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