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Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 30, 2012 - 3:42pm


Should probably get back to work

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm



Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm

near the top?

damn you gotta move fast around here.

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:47pm

318th!!! yah! woo-hoo!!

Always better to be pleasantly surprised right.

Also, a monday post from Trader Dan I didn't see linked anywhere.

Silver Clinging to Support Above $31.50 - Needs Catalyst

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:49pm

blatant repost from the other new thread

Greek parliamentary vote is Doomed!

Submitted by rl999 on October 30, 2012 - 3:27pm. Hat Tip! 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999

Mish and ZH have articles about the greek parliament and their mess. This might make tomorrows open interesting.

Greece Coalition Splinters, Austerity Vote Delayed, PM Warns of ‘Chaos’; Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?

Greek Ruling Coalition Collapses Days Ahead Of Critical Vote

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:56pm

Relative to all the Gold talk

Anyone else feel with all the cage-rattling that Turk is doing, that rather than being

like Germany, and seemingly backing off their claims, there will be some of the smaller

countries who are going to see this and say, "wait a minute, if he is only 1% true, do we

want to chance it?" I have a hard time believing that more countries will not start saying

"can I get my stuff please"? Once the SECOND country does that, I envision a cascade

of countries doing it, then it will become REALLY interesting.


All the best to all you East-Coasters out there

Colonel Angus
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:57pm

That blurry video with Hulk Hogan and that friend's wife... would never be Bart Chilton getting in on that.

Let me say it again. I was at a meeting where the top execs from a lot of the TBTF (JP Morgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, et al.) were discussing things with the top regulators from the SEC and the AMF (the French version). It was completely Harvard versus East Bumblefuck Community College. The guy from the SEC actually tried to tell an allegory that was supposed to relate to regulation. The top execs of the TBTF were talking about brass tacks. I came home from this and told my wife, "The financial system is completely screwed." Thunderlips just drives home the point that we have mental midgets in charge of the rules. And the old wealth is going to bend them over the table every time. I actually thought the top SEC guy was going to ask to join the side with the TBTF guys. And then he was going to offer them favors, of whatever type you want to imagine, to stay in their clique. It was just awful.

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

It appears BILL murphy's event and HEH

have the same timeline; starting early August.

BTW I am not a member of uncon-fin. and cannot view the second part so can someone summarize please.

Henry Frap
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

Yep- has to catch up

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Yep. One would imagine it just HAS GOT to catch up with them. Meanwhile, stack a few for a rainy day-

(sorry, no pun intended!)

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:14pm

Lease rates

I don't know if this means anything significant, but...

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:16pm

Turd, That Was Such a Sad Read

Our life boat is full of holes and poor Bart hasn't even one oar in the water.

We're all New York now (except NY can rebuild).

Prayers to the east coast.

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:25pm


Problem is those in charge of "sovereign" countries. They "personally" are doing quite well.

What you are suggesting is that those currently sucking off the teats would swap their lot at the top of the tree for a principle - in which THEY (individuals) risk all for their country. How many of them are really bothered?

Chavez thrives in sticking it to Uncle Sam. Indeed - it gives him street cred.

Germany squeaks that it only wants 50 ton per year (got to give them time to acquire it - cannot ask for all at once).

One can only hope that the masses can encourage the political oppositions to demand repatriation. However if Uncle Sam whispers, we aint got it. To those PTB then they are likely to say nothing and keep their status quo.

Risk rebellion by speaking truth.......hmmmm think not.


Oct 30, 2012 - 4:29pm
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:33pm


You ought to send back to Chilton your properly editorialized version, just as noted. Maybe he'd get the message (or not). Anyway, my sentiments exactly.

He must have a 13 year old daughter messing with his silly blond head to write publicly in such a sophomoric way. I can't believe I pay taxes to keep him in his $100k+ cushy job. And, he's one of the better, smarter ones, they say. Yikes.

Ilya Repin
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:38pm

Get some

Daily XAG chart looks like a wall sits beneath 31.80. no penetration, nothing. this is unheard of. Silver stocks screaming higher. Ominous.

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:52pm

"Pop Goes The Evil"

Hilarious comments Turd!

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:11pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:12pm

I agree with turd

The editorial from Bart is over the top absurd. I really don't understand it at all--is he really as dumb as he sounds? Or is he doing a bad job at playing dumb? I don't get it.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:14pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:21pm

Canadian Silver

Seems Turkey and Vietnam and India are attempting to have the central planners owning the peoples real wealth.

Canada hopes to raise how much! By when! Why the rush I wonder?

Are they going to phyzz put all that Silver away - in such a short time? - competing directly with Sprott?

There again- those negative lease rates? Are they going to outlaw the precious and nobody wants it (including the Canadian mint)

Lots of confusion.

Help me please.


Edit Or is Canada doing a China and encouraging folk to own wealth. Then there was the piece about Scotia Macotta taking delivery of a big chunk of Silver.

I have no idea what to think right now.

Edit 2: A flash of inspiration. Do not give government money, we stack because we do not trust them.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:35pm


Hard to believe that is from Chilton. perhaps he is trying to connect with communities like ours by using such unusual language. Seems strange to me.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:38pm

I liked TurdTalksMetals today

he thinks we should buy silver

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:51pm

Silver exchanges


Today SD posted: RCM (Royal Canadian Mint) launches ETR’s backed by Silver bullion

Recently TF spoke about some long awaited (Asian?) silver exchange coming on line recently. (At TTM or one of the two podcasts TF did last week)

India just launched a physical silver bullion exchange MCX

I think I am forgetting one, but considering the limited amount of silver that is available (per the KWN guys and A.Maguire) it seems surprising that all this can be happening at once on top of increasing industrial demand.

Perhaps this will cause some movement.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:57pm

Bart Bart let a fart

Blew the whole damn place apart?

100% sure that Bart Chilton needle prick reads this site with regularity. And he most certainly is a perverted sociopath and enjoy's the attention. Any publicity is good publicity to his kind of mind.

If Turd didn't tell Bart and Blythe and the monkeys just how and what to do on a daily basis, they would all be in a world of shit.

And Silver would probably be over sixty buckerooos.

Now, what about those negative lease rates?

And the new world order satan worshippers worshipping their god this week.

I say silver gets hammered down three buckeroooos this week.

Hope I'm wrong.

Oct 30, 2012 - 5:58pm

IMF Paper #1

World Economic Outlook, October 2012 :

Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth

Published Date: October 2012
Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.


World Economic Outlook, October 2012: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth

(All 3 papers are a treasure trove of info.)

Oct 30, 2012 - 6:03pm

IMF Paper #2

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012:

Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms : (Summary version)

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department


Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms
Oct 30, 2012 - 6:05pm

IMF Paper #3

Fiscal Monitor, October 2012 :

Taking Stock - A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment

Published Date: October 2012
Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008-09. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress, focusing on its size, composition, and implications for employment and social equity. The issue finds that most countries--and especially advanced economies--have made significant headway in rolling back fiscal deficits, but that efforts at controlling debt stocks are taking longer to yield results. The mix of revenue and expenditure policies employed by countries with sizable fiscal consolidation needs has differed, with advanced economies in general relying more on spending retrenchment than emerging markets and low-income countries. Both spending and revenue measures have important implications for employment and social equity, the issue finds, and these implications need to be taken into account if the large consolidation efforts underway are to be sustainable.


Fiscal Monitor, October 2012: Taking Stock - A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment

Oct 30, 2012 - 6:06pm


FAZ may be an abbreviation for:

Faz can also refer to:

Be Prepared
Oct 30, 2012 - 6:08pm

The Rain isn't staying mainly on the Plains

There is a great wind a blowing..... I have felt it's harsh and bitter edge. The seeds of destruction, planted long ago, are finally overgrowing all that was once worth something in the ol' U.S. of A. We are in the Turning of this Century and its apex seems to be ever close upon us. We can ignore that the fact we hold no store of value in the paper and electronic debits we have been driven to hold, but it would be and is truly to our perish.

Yes, we hold silver and gold and there is hope that it might be a safe bridge over these waters, but the system knows how to grind.... to grind away at freedoms.... to smash a person's resolve.... to audit one into oblivion. There are few within the system that see the masses as the holders and owners of the government..... and, more than likely, see us as cattle to be herded and branded. Many days it's hard to live with so many blind and oblivious people because I know that they will so readily serve me (us) up to the alter of a fascist state without nary a thought.

My comfort lies not in metal, although a chunk of lead does a mind good, but in knowing that I am willing to see the truth..... always looking to find the truth.... seeking to learn the truth with all that it means and holds. Truth may not set me free in the future, but today... it is my beacon and it lights a mighty path. :-)

*repost from Sprott thread because I couldn't figure out which one was the main one....

Be Prepared
Oct 30, 2012 - 6:13pm


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