Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:42am

Yep, there it went

Video unavailable
maravich44 TF
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:43am

Plunge Protection Team.

...getting spread thin.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:45am

Juniors on the desks

Ahhh...boss. What do I do now?

silver foil hat
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:45am


Just thought I'd report this. Take it for what it's worth.

BAC calls, Sept11 (12 strike) have been slowly ticking up for the past 24 hours.... bucking the trend of the stock.

Taken with that sgs video bears #7 posted this weekend.... you come to your own conclusion.

Once you get rid of the trash.... you can show the house.

Just checked before the save button.... 13 strike just ticked up too.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:45am

Haha and the dollar rising

Haha and the dollar rising again WITH the PMs. That makes so much sense.

- Markus

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:45am

Gold Correction

Will gold correct anytime soon? Thoughts?

Sterling Johnson
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:46am


If you are going to have a nooner; you'll need wood. Long wood.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:46am


Heading for

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:46am

Silver Finally....

Up 1.03...hope it lasts

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:46am

Oh yeah baby, they've got our

brilliant Tesla on a roll! Love your work bro.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:48am


Is anyone else disappointed with the logic behind the 1764 price target? I mean, that's just the square of 42. Just because we reached a new "square" doesn't mean it will go parabolic. We'd need also need a date target to establish a parabola, as eaching new squares at steady time intervals would give us a parabola; reaching new squares on random dates is insufficient.

Also, every real number has a square root, so we're actually trading at a square right now! I guess my questions is what's so special about dollar denominated perfect square? Unless 1746 is a psychological milestone something psychological, I think this particular target reeks of numerology.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:48am

Come on Silver

40 not that far away.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:50am

The dollar index

Is basically the USDEUR, approximately. It doesn't matter, unless you're a forex banger. Stop watching it.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:50am
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:50am

Just a coincidence that once 1764 in the rear view mirror a bit, things really started to move.

It's just numerology after all.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:51am

Bank of America

I don't want to buy 73 billion dollars worth of mortgages from BAC. At one time, they might have been worth 73 billion but now, they are worth considerably less if anything at all. Nobody asked me if I wanted to help bail out the criminals at BAC. Everyone involved should be taken out and shot this afternoon. Not a threat mind you, just stating the facts.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:51am


Comon keep it UP!!


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:52am



exiledbear MIDDIE
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:52am

Gold correction?

What did you call the past 2-3 days?! It went from 1780 to 1720! What do you want? A -100 delta?

BagOfGold Shill
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:52am


Yes!...My penny miners are taking off!!!...Up...up...& away!!!...


Bag Of Gold

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:52am


$59 PRINT!!!!!!!!!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:52am

Toxic Cleaner

Shill, yep, BAC sells their garbage. This surely marks the (planned) beginning of the end for the dubious Fannie “clearing house”.

Next we’ll hear that JPM has agreed to a spinoff sale of its silver “assets” to Bumpkin Bank in Possum Bottom, WV. Amount of sale will be undisclosed.

Rumor has it that these sales were negotiated by an unknown broker nicknamed "The Wolf".

Winston Wolf HD
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:53am

Silver up Copper dowen

Silver up 4.41% & Copper Down 4%

JPM under water??????

Dr G Violent Rhetoric
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:53am

@Violent Rhetoric

Love the epiphany image! Love it!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:54am

1790 :P

Duran Duran - The Reflex 1984
Silver Dan
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:54am

Early Release of Overnight Headline

Ah $1700's... We Hardly Knew Ye.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:55am

What's up w/ copper? lower

What's up w/ copper? lower than I have noticed for a while.

Remember thinking "bad" about Gold in Feb. when Silver was making moves... have the same feeling for silver now. With Ag staying flat and Au leading, I am going to have a contrarian view on the PMs momentum (short term). Trying to keep eyes on the prize, not get distracted. I just keep stacking here and there with my few left over FRNs.

The move to Physical for me was made well in advance of finding TF Metals site.

A personal decision with little influence from any PM bugs. Self informed, from reading about the history of Currency in the U.S.

Even if the PM's take a hit, any price I pay is well worth being AWARE... during this interesting period in history.

Thanks Turd and friends for providing the site as a "compass" to help Navigate this unknown territory.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:56am

Someone pinch me!

The monkeys are climbing, I just hope they don't run out of tree.

last trade today's gains cost YTD gain

1.25 0.46 58.23% $0.355 225.83%*
1.67 0.40 31.50% $0.32 362.71%
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:56am

Jamie, Blythe Get to the Choppah!

Get To The Chopper!!!
FogHorn LegHorn diegeiro
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:57am

diegeiro Dylan Ratigan rant right on

diegeiro Great post, I don't watch msm, but I am now going to make an exception and follow Dylan! That Guys Rant was spot on! Keep up the good work!


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